YouSaid · the spoken record

Rob Kaplan

lines on the record: 39
first: 2021-08-09
most recent: 2021-08-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Imbalances in the economy, higher rents would be one of those examples that real people have to pay. That's not a macro prudential issue. That's probably just an economic side effect that we need to be aware of at the Fed”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Communities. Rent increases are coming for those communities, and I worry about their ability to absorb them. So what can be done? I think a lot of these issues are not with the banks. I think while not perfect, stress testing and tough capital requirements with the banking sector have had a meaningful positive impact. The issues I'm talking about will likely occur either in the nonbank financial sector. So what I would love to see then is in other parts of the government that can oversee capital requirements, transparency, good disclosure to be monitoring these excess risks. I worry about the ability of the financial sector to intermediate the flows when things normalize. And I do worry about in addition away from macroprudential, just excesses.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So let me talk about what I'm seeing, then we'll talk about what can be done. I worry that there's excess, people are moving out the risk curve, whether it's institutions, individuals, people are taking more risk because they can't earn from cash and in some cases they can't even earn from, you know, unless they're taking duration, they can't really earn from bonds. And so what we're seeing pretty broadly and all the measures I look at, people are moving out the risk curve. And credit spreads are historically tight. The question is then when those excesses get more normalized, that could be a jarring adjustment. And then I look at the housing market and we see that the Fed is buying a meaningful meaningful percentage of net new mortgage-backed securities issuance. And we're seeing elevated home prices, which is going to translate into higher rents. Again, what I worry about is for low moderate income.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We really are and spend an enormous amount of time, and I'm talking to infectious disease experts every couple of days and doctors and broadly. We've been doing this for months. As long as it's still the case that vaccines are effective in minimizing hospitalizations and death, you might get COVID, but you probably won't get very ill. As long as that continues to be the case, I think the impact of the Delta variant will be We will not see a step backward in the economy, but we might not see the progress we were hoping to see. And I think it's going to delay the matching process between businesses who are trying to hire workers and workers stepping into the economy. And it probably will exacerbate some of these material supply demand imbalances and labor supply demand imbalances. It doesn't mean we'll grow more slowly, but I”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Talking about this and talking to local leaders about it and national leaders and taking actions here at the Dallas Fed will take some of those steps to address these issues. But that's probably the biggest challenge and I guess development since the pandemic that is more pressing.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that the structure of the economy continues to evolve. So technology, technology enabled disruption and scale. Was important pre pandemic. It's become even more critical today. I think the importance of access to childcare, early childhood literacy, improving awareness and access to skills training is even more important today because I think I'm disappointed, I guess one surprise is a disappointment is I think some of these supply demand imbalances on the labor side Some of it can be addressed with monetary policy, but we need a broader action. I think the structural changes in the economy and the persistent supply demand imbalances in the labor force is an unfortunate development and a surprise. We can do something about it, but we got to call it out first and then take actions broadly to address it. And so I'm hopeful that by me”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we're seeing all that. So some of that can be dealt with through monetary policy and some of it means real local action. And maybe in some cases national action to improve early childhood literacy full day versus half day pre-K, more access to Wi-Fi, better childcare access, more childcare access where kids are read to, beefed up skills training. I think it's going to take all those pieces of the puzzle to help address these issues.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We took a step backward, unfortunately, during COVID. And we were seeing improvement pre-COVID, and now we're seeing more divergence. It's starting to improve, and there's some narrowing, but we've taken a step backward. Even worse, we've seen a number of issues. We've seen a drop in enrollment in skills training among black and Hispanic students. And I hear this from superintendents. We've seen senior classes in at-risk communities having a lower graduation rates. We're seeing higher dropout rates, and we're hearing lots of reports from school superintendents I speak with who are telling me they worry that grade school kids, particularly those who had to work remotely and from at-risk communities, have probably fallen behind more and they're trying to figure out a way to catch.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Structural issues, so it makes me look at a much wider number of items and a much bigger dashboard that I looked at pre-pandemic. And that's caused me to say, and we wrote a piece on this two months ago, the labor force from what we can tell is much tighter than the headline measures would suggest.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I still look at all those measures today, but we broadened out our dashboard even further to look at things like open jobs, the quits rate, some of the conference board measures. And I think that it's very appropriate to be looking at different groups, to look at their labor force participation and unemployment rate and trying to look at opportunities to reduce the slack in those groups and get them back into the workforce. But I think in assessing how tight the labor force is, it's never been more important to look at a wider set of benchmarks than before. And that's why you're probably not going to hear me use pre-pandemic targets in thinking about full employment today. I think structurally these supply demand imbalances are more pronounced. I think we've got more.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, pre-pandemic, I looked at a full dashboard, but I bored in specifically on the headline unemployment rates for the whole population, for black citizens, Hispanics, women, those with high school education or less, as well as a measure called U6, unemployed plus discourage workers plus people who work part-time who would rather work full-time.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That have scale and that can use technology to work around that, have a distinct advantage. Small mid-sized businesses, local restaurant, retail store don't really have those levers. And that's why we're seeing a divergence between how small mid-sized businesses are dealing with these wage pressures and inability to hire and large businesses. And for small businesses, it's really, it's restricting their hours. It's eating into their margins. It's causing the question their business model. It's pushing many businesses. And getting scale. And I think that's an important trend to be aware of.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Clients in treasury yields and government bond yields around the world. That's a pretty good indicator that prospects for future growth are more sluggish and that tends to have a downward impact on the neutral rate. And so that helps explain why the Fed funds rate and other central banks around the world have had much lower interest rates than they have historically. It's because prospects for future growth are more sluggish. So I think that concept is a useful concept. Now the other thing we've done a lot of work here on the Dallas Fed though regarding inflation is there's a big structural trend that's being going on for the last number of years in the economy and it's technology and technology enabled disruption. That has limited the pricing power of businesses and this is why I've said as you see more wage pressure and supply demand imbalances for labor, those businesses”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I'll start with the background. I'm not a PhD economist. I'm a business person. So as a business person, I was trained over a couple of three decades that theoretical data points are useful to think about, but you've got to be very careful about understanding there's a great deal of unpredictability and uncertainty about them. Having said that, I think the concept that there's an equilibrium rate is a good concept. Try to get to specific as to what that neutral rate is. That's the part I'd be careful about. And so I think the concept that there's probably some equilibrium rate and that, by the way, that equilibrium rate because of aging demographics, I think has been declining. And you can see it in the”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What we are seeing is yes, to your point, a number of extreme price moves, used cars as an example. But what we're also seeing is a broadening of price pressures. Contacts I have in semiconductor industry and a range of industries are telling me that the supply demand imbalances for materials are going to last longer than people might have expected. And I do believe the supply demand imbalances for labor will last longer and will be more persistent. So no, it's a term I would prefer not to have used. It's a term I've avoided using.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, Tracy, you'll notice from my public comments over the last three months, I've resisted using the term transitory. I would have preferred that the FOMC did not use the word largely, the term largely transitory, and I've been fairly vocal about that. I've said consistently, I don't want to put a label on what we're seeing.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is going to stay with us for the foreseeable future. And every data point we look at, and I'll talk with my contacts, also suggest the labor force is now much tighter than these headline statistics would indicate. And I think when you lose 3 million workers to retirement and a million and a half to caregiving, even if you get some number of them back. And again, with demand being very strong, we don't have a demand problem. Great recession aftermath was about a lack of demand. The aftermath of the COVID downturn is more about supply and supply-demand issues. It's not a lack of demand. And I think it's very critical that we recognize that.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I've felt for some time, and I've said this publicly, that the unemployment benefits were only one piece of a larger puzzle. And what's the larger puzzle? We've had 3 million retirements since February of 2020. We have a million and a half, approximately workers who are caregivers who've left the workforce. We still have fear of infection. Some of these workers will come back into the workforce, but some of these workers are 55 and older, and they're in reasonably good financial shape. And COVID has caused them to rethink whether they really want to re-enter the workforce. I'm hopeful that with expanded childcare in-person school, that will help get a chunk of the caregivers back into the workforce. But this aging issue, which has been with us for years,”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'll avoid speaking for the committee, but I do believe. When I started speaking out, I guess it's now two, two and a half months ago, I felt it was a very important that the tapering discussion get on the agenda, that we begin the debate. And I think I at least am a much more comfortable that as a committee we're in a much better place and that we're actively having the debate. We're obviously having disagreement, but I think that's healthy. But I have a lot of confidence in the FOMC that when we debate and disagree and we put these items on the table, we'll get to better policy judgments. So I'm much more comfortable where we are right now than where we were, say, a couple of months ago.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even though their constituents are heavily employed, and so what does it tell me? It tells me it's very important that the Fed anchor inflation expectations at 2% and that, yes, we want to meet our inflation target of 2%, but we also want to be cognizant of the impacts of letting inflation run a little bit to excess. And so I take that 2% commitment very seriously and get back to where we started. That's one reason why I'd rather soon take the foot somewhat off the accelerator, reduce some of these excesses and imbalances or do less to be perpetuating them so that we maybe have more flexibility down the road in how we can handle the Fed funds rate in 2022 and beyond.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To handle elevated inflation much better than small midsize businesses. Big businesses can use scale. They're actively merging. They can invest in technology. Small mid-sized businesses don't have those levers. And what I'm hearing pretty broadly is most businesses I talk to are raising prices intended to raise prices more and are getting more confident about their ability to raise prices. I'm also seeing that again, if you're a low moderate income person with a job higher inflation is biting into your share of wallet more so than it does somebody who's more affluent. And I'm hearing a lot from low modern income communities and their representatives that we do extensive outreach rich that they're seeing real stress in trying to make ends meet.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, here's what I'm seeing broadly from context. We're seeing in our work at the Dallas Fed a broadening of price pressures. So on the positive side, some of the extreme moves in, say, used cars, lumber, other individual items, we're expecting those may well moderate somewhat. But on the other hand, what we're seeing is a broadening of price pressures. Why? Due to the semiconductor shortage, that's starting to ripple to a broader range of consumer items. Material shortages we think will be more persistent than some might expect. And again, the supply demand on labor, those imbalances we think here at the Dallas Fed will take longer. And so our expectation for 2022 is that the headline PCE number will be in the neighborhood of 2.5%. So it won't be, it might not be the eye popping numbers that we're seeing this year, but it will be still be elevated. What I'm learning in discussions with contacts, big businesses will be able to”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We would remain highly accommodative until we reach full employment and price stability. But that's different than keeping rates at zero. As you approach full employment and price stability, the neutral rate starts to drift up. As the neutral rate drifts up, if you're committed to keeping the Fed funds rated zero, it means you're actually getting more and more and more accommodative as you approach full employment and price stability. I don't think you want to get more and more and more accommodative. I think you might be willing to stay highly accommodative. But I think it's probably appropriate and future committees, my guess, will think so too, that you want to make some adjustments to remain highly accommodative, but there's a difference between doing that and keeping rates at zero. So I felt it was too rigid in tying the hands of future committees, and that's why I dissented.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“2020 meeting. That's where I dissented. And here's why for two reasons what that forward guidance said is we're going to keep rates at zero until we've reached full employment and we've reached price stability. And I felt I dissented for two reasons there. Number one, I don't think it's good practice for the Fed to be specifically making commitments on the Fed funds rate literally years in advance to a future context where we don't know the facts of that context. Today's a great example. I don't think in September of 2020 we anticipated that inflation would be running as high as it is now. We didn't anticipate the supply-demand imbalances on the labor side that we're seeing. That's a classic case where you want to be very careful about making forward commitments. Number two, I would have been willing to say in September 2020 that”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So on the framework, I supported and voted for the framework, but on the premise, my interpretation of the framework was we needed to anchor inflation expectations so that they were more appropriately anchored at 2%. And so it was appropriate to be willing to tolerate inflation running moderately above 2% in order to anchor those expectations at 2%. I support that. I also supported being somewhat less preemptive in anticipating inflation at the cost of potentially improving employment and inclusive employment in the economy. So that's on the one hand. After we approve the framework, then we got into forward guidance in our September.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My own view is I do not think it's the role of the Federal Reserve to either monetize the debt or to facilitate government spending. Now in the height of the crisis, I think it was important that the Fed bolstered the functioning of the Treasury market and took a number of the extraordinary actions we took in order to ensure that the government can do what it needed to do from a fiscal side to fight this crisis. But setting aside what we did in a crisis, I think in more normal times, which we're now emerging into, I don't think the Fed, it's an appropriate role for the Fed to be monetizing the debt or facilitating government spending. And I think it's very critical that we don't convey the impression to the public that that's part of our role. And I think there might be some confusion out there on that subject.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I do believe that investment in infrastructure, including Wi Fi, is different than fiscal policy that simply stimulates current spending, i.e. fiscal policy either tax related or otherwise that just stimulates current spending, gives you a short-term bump, and then you revert back down to trend based on all the work we've done here. Infrastructure spending, on the other hand, and those type of investments, ideally if they're well done, should be 20 or 30-year investments that should help improve productivity. And then related to that, we need to improve early childhood literacy, particularly for the fastest growing demographic groups, and we need to improve skills training. Some of that can be done with local money, by the way, may not take government money, but I think that's another investment that will help improve productivity. And I think all those...”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Fed purchasing this much treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, the signal that you might get from the bond market might be a little bit distorted right now. It's certainly distorted as it relates to credit spreads, real yields, et cetera. And so that's another factor. But I'm very conscious of what the 10 year is saying is something I'm mindful of as we assess the economy and think through what's appropriate monetary policy.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or less technology and technology enable disruption mean your job is being regularly either restructured or even eliminated. And we're not seeing the productivity improvements, so we've got to improve early childhood literacy, skills training, and the whole educational ecosystem in order to get the benefits for the whole population of these technology investments. So how's that get to the bond market? If productivity growth doesn't help offset slowing labor force growth, the out-year growth is sluggish. And I think the bond market is recognizing that out-year growth, not just in the United States but globally, is relatively sluggish because of aging populations and skepticism about productivity offsetting that. That's number one. The other thing you can't quite tell, and I always caution myself and my team.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I'll give you my own take on what I'm seeing in the bond market. Over the horizon, in other words, after we get out of this rebound from the COVID pandemic, there's no question that labor force growth, we think in the out years, is decelerating due to aging. And we felt that pre-pandemic, that trend is still alive and well and is a challenge we have to face. Our population growth is decelerating, our labor force is going to decelerate. And then the question is, will productivity improvements help offset that? And so far they haven't. And why haven't they? Our own view at the Dallas Fed is that if you've got a college education, your technology and technology enabled disruption is probably helping your productivity if you're one of the 46 million people with a high school education.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, I do think that. And in all my communications, I've emphasized that by adjusting purchases sooner, It may actually allow us to be more patient in the future on the Fed funds rate. And in my view, those two subjects should be divorced and we should be clear in our public communication that those two processes are divorced. I think these purchases and injecting this amount of liquidity into the economy every month has its own set of considerations and its own set of side effects. which I think are different than the considerations and side effects of how we handle the Fed funds rate.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Own assets, the know-how don't. This inflation discussion, which I know we can get into, affects big businesses differently than small, mid-sized businesses. And I think these supply demand imbalances and inflation pressures affect low to moderate income communities differently than they do higher income communities. And I think which I can get into why I say that, but for all those reasons I would I think adjusting these purchases sooner might actually allow us to be more patient on the Fed funds right down the road. And the analogy you've heard me use is I'd rather take my foot off the accelerator soon so we don't need to hit the brakes down the road. And I think that may be the case in this situation.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, in that regard, I would differentiate what our actions are going to be on the Fed funds rate. What our actions are going to be on our asset purchases. I think those two subjects for me should be more fully divorced. On the Fed funds rate, that's not a decision in my opinion for 2021. That's something we'll debate based on conditions in 2022. I think the near-term judgment is on purchases. There may be arguments that in years past we might have moved the Fed funds rate earlier than we should have. I actually am not sure those arguments. I'm not sure I agree with those arguments. But even setting that aside, I am much more confident about the efficacy of keeping the Fed funds rate where it is right now. I am much more doubtful about the value of these purchases. My concern is they accentuate excesses and balances. They tend to be more beneficial to people who have”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of treasuries and five billion a month of mortgage-backed securities. So I would like to start sooner rather than later start soon, but I would probably like to be more gradual than others you've mentioned.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More adept at stimulating demand, but we don't have a demand problem right now. I worry that they're creating excesses in risk-taking, excesses in the housing market, maybe exacerbating imbalances in the economy. And so for me, therefore, the bar for substantial further progress is lower because I don't see I'm starting to question the efficacy of our purchases. So in that regard, I would rather begin adjusting these purchases soon. I don't want to actually get into what the months or the calendar, but I would be supportive of adjusting these purchases soon. But the other thing I would say is once we start the adjustment process, I would probably be prefer to have it be more gradual. And what does gradual mean to me? Probably means baseline over eight months, let's say. So that would be $10 million.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So to answer that, let me step back for a moment. People talk a lot about substantial further progress. We have a substantial further progress benchmark. What I've been saying for the last number of weeks and months is there's one other significant criteria. And I would refer to that as efficacy. So the first thing you want to look at, and the best analogy I can think, if you're a doctor prescribing medicine to someone who's been through a traumatic event, you always want to first be assessing what's the efficacy of the medication. And you want to be willing to adjust your views on that. And what I'm seeing now is the efficacy, the benefits of purchasing 80 billion of treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities a month, I think was very high efficacy in 2020, early 21, as we sit here today, I see some unintended side effects. And again, those purchases are...”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, my own view on that is for starters to be cognizant of them and to be cognizant that our tools, and in particular in the short run, are asset purchases are much more adept at stimulating demand. They're not so adept at dealing with supply-demand imbalances. And so for me, I think patience the way I would define patience would be you might want to lower the RPMs on the car now that we've gotten out of the ditch from 2020 and early 21 and we're on more level land, I think we may want to show patience by reducing the RPMs on the car and be willing to allow these supply demand imbalances time to unfold. But for me, That doesn't mean continuing our purchases like we were doing. It means showing some patients by realizing we're in a different situation than 2020 and early 21 and showing some restraint on our purchases.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everything we see suggests that consumer demand is strong and demand generally is strong. The issues we have are working out the supply-demand imbalances, not just on materials, but significantly on labor. We've had substantial number of retirements. We have people who are not in the workforce because they're caregivers. We still have fear of infection. And I think that supply demand imbalance regarding labor is going to be more persistent than people might expect.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it's still our view at the Dallas Fed that GDP growth for 2021 will be in the neighborhood of 6.5%. That growth will moderate as we go into 2022, you know, somewhere, let's say between two and a half and three percent. We think that we'll trend down toward 4.5% unemployment rate by the end of this year, but I'll come back to that. We think we'll end the year with a PCE inflation reading of something like 3.8%, so very elevated. And I'll talk more about that. The big issues we're facing between now, certainly in the end of the year, are more about supply than demand. There's plenty of demand in this economy. You all were talking about it in your conversation.”
2021-08-09 · Odd Lots · Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source