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Ronald Stöferle

lines on the record: 83
first: 2022-06-30
most recent: 2022-06-30
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“If that person is a good skier or not. And I think over the last couple of years, it was pretty easy to make a decent performance in markets because basically everything was rising over the course of everything bubble. But now over the next couple of years, we really see who's a good asset manager and who's not. And so for us, that's the challenge that we are facing, the challenge that we're accepting. And we truly look forward to that challenge.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“1717, yeah Obviously, our strategies that combine gold with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, they have suffered, but they are doing very well. And I mean the most important thing for us is that our clients, our investors are super happy about our performance. So therefore, I think it's going to be challenging, but I always make this, people hate me for making sports analogies. But I think it's like with skiing, you know, Austrians, that's basically the only sport that we're good at. And if the weather is fine and if you've got fresh powder and the slopes are empty, everybody is a good skier, even the Dutch. But if it's icy, if it's foggy, then you really can tell.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What's really crucial is you have to be very, very active as an investor in this environment. I think the times, you know, what were the big trends over the last couple of years? It was obviously ESG. It was risk parity and it was passive investments. So everybody said, well, we don't need active managers anymore. And I think the environment that we are in today clearly shows that active management has a strong use case. And with our fund, with the inflation fund, we are up 70% year to date. I think our combinations of gold.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, probably doing QQE like the Japanese do it and buy equities. Also like the Swiss National Bank is doing it. Yeah, why not? But I think that's basically our friend Russell Napier did lots of work on that. I think we should expect much more financial repression. So money will be funneled into directions where it normally would never go to. I think we will see much more capital restrictions, more financial repression, more government interventions. And then at some point we'll end up in an environment where we say, well, is this still a capitalist system? Probably not. So I think I will reread Atlas Shrugged over the summer. And I've had a big impact on me. I really enjoyed reading it a couple of years ago. And I think it's quite frightening reading it today probably. But yeah, so this is kind of the way forward. And I think...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It comes to the big picture, I think that If we study the rescue packages of central banks, I mean, it's obvious that every round of quantitative easing became bigger and more aggressive and quantitative tightening. Well, actually, you know, it didn't really turn out that well. And I think over the course of the Federal Reserve, there were four or five episodes where they tried to reduce the size of their balance sheets and basically all of them ended in a recession. So I think it would be naive to think that they will not step in for another round. However, it is clear that the toolbox of central bankers is quite empty these days. So, you know, going to negative rates in the US, I really don't see doing more QE.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, we wrote roughly 400 pages about that. So if you need some good reading material for your summer vacation, feel free to have a look at the extended version of Dean Goldwitz report. I think it's from a macro perspective, it's a super. Yeah, how should I put it nasty tax and especially for the poorest? So I think this environment that we are currently experiencing this will obviously have a big impact on election results. It will have a big impact on politics. I think we are already quite divided and a very polarized society and this is further increased by inflation now being at these levels. So I think we should not forget about the social consequences of the environment that we're in and we should not forget there's many many people and families at the moment out there who really have a very, very hard time making ends meet.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Definitely on a cold wallet, sure. I mean, you can trade it on an account, but then you have to know what your risk is. So keep your Bitcoin on a cold wallet. I think that's a very short answer. Yeah, nothing more to say.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just to add one number, I think Luke Roman tweeted that out US federal tax receipts in May down 16%. So that screams recession already. And yeah, I was shocked when I saw that number and I don't expect June to be significantly better.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think hereby lies the real problem this time around, not so much perhaps in the first point of view, the financial markets, but the solvency of the federal level. And if push comes to shaft, they will have to save it clearly. It's clearly to me they will not provoke a bankruptcy or any kind of default. And therefore, when push comes to shaft, they will reverse the policy and they will keep enabling this kind of debt policies.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it probably means that. So the dilemma is even bigger when the inflation is higher. But when push comes to shove, they will have to save basically not only the financial markets, but this time they actually, what they are actually saving is the state. So you have to keep the state, the federal level in that sense, able to refinance the debt. One should keep in mind that Tax receives correlate one to one to the nominal GDP. So if nominal GDP shrinks, then obviously the income of the states and the federal level shrinks as well. And I think that's the real predicament there in, because if they raise the interest rates, not only do they tighten the financial conditions for refinancing the huge amount of debt, but also by throwing the economy into a recession, the tax receipts fall massively fall.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. Mark, does that change? I'm sure that if inflation moderates, I'm sure you're right. But what if inflation stays stubbornly high at 6 or 7 percent? Does that increase that does that mean that there has to be more pain than there was in 2018?”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, we saw this movie, we heard it, they will be watching it like paint gets dry or what did they say last time and when the minute things were bad, they pivoted. And this will happen again. I'm sure about that. But for now, as long as the pain is bearable, they will continue to raise.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Fed versus the dollar. So, in terms of financing also, if one thinks about the reserve status of the US when it comes to the Western world, obviously the US is the go-to currency and will stay the go-to currency since they've been able to hike. And I think that's also an advantage which they have in mind. But as I said, when it comes to these measures, VICs general stock market levers and credit spreads, when things get too dicey, I think they will hit the pause button at least. And if things get even more dicey, they will reverse. I wouldn't give any credibility to words like unconcern.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think what you could watch is the asset markets. I'd watch the VIX index. I'd watch the levels of general stock markets and I would very closely watch credit spreads. So as long as these indices or measures don't go out to rather extreme levels, I think the Fed will stick to their guns and they will raise because they are serious. They know the predicament and they know they have to act now. And I think they are actually also regaining some credibility, at least on a relative basis. I mean, the Eurozone really is looking ridiculous versus”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If we get to 4%, I would be very surprised if SP 500 did better than gold. It could not happen. Anything could happen. I want to ask you, where do you think, at what point do you think the Federal Reserve will pivot? Because right now I'm just looking at the forward interest rate futures curve. And by October of 2022, October. So only a few months, the Fed funds rate is projected by the market to be about 3.1%. Do you think it gets there? And do you think like a pivot happens before that? Because that means a recession would have to happen pretty quickly.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But that's just not healthy for every human being. If the temperature is kept at, I don't know, 22, 23% all the time, you will struggle once it's colder or once it's hotter. And you will have to put in enormous amounts of energy to keep it at a stable temperature. Therefore, long story short, if we continue raising rates, then obviously it's not a super bullish environment for gold, but I think it's even worse for other asset classes. And we haven't seen any major disruptions in real estate yet, and we haven't seen anything in private equity yet. And I think... What we can look forward to over the next couple of months, that's going to be interesting what's going to happen in more illiquid spaces of the market.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think there's lots of malinvestments that will have to be liquidated. And we know that central banks won't say, well, let the recession cleans everything out and start some sort of an Austrian laissez-faire approach. But I think from our point, and this is really crucial for us, a recession isn't something that we would fear. It is something that obviously changes and improves the capital structure. It means losses for many people. It means higher unemployment, absolutely. But I think it's important for an economic cycle. And, you know, central banks try to destroy the cycle by keeping us on a constant level.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The longest expansion for the US economy in the history of the United States. And then we saw this very, very brief COVID recession that was basically papered over by enormous amounts of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. So we actually weren't really able to see the liquidation that normally happens over the course of a recession. We haven't seen any major bankruptcies over the last couple of quarters. We've been in this LAN for quite a while. But I think at some point the recession is going to hit the market.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, for the United States, and obviously having a look at what's going on over here in Europe, I don't think that we're doing so much better. And therefore, I just replied to a tweet from an economist from a big international bank over here in Europe. And he said, well, a recession is not our base case, but still for 2023, recessionary risks have increased a bit from my point of view that that's like saying that Austria, I don't know, will win the World Cup in soccer. It's just, you know, it's not going to happen. We are in a recession. Jack, I think it's important to say that before 2020, I think we saw...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's obviously not a super bullish environment that we would be in. And I wouldn't expect gold to go higher sideways at best or probably lower. But I think we also have to ask ourselves what this would mean for the rest of the market, what it would mean for bond markets, what it would mean for equity markets. Real estate, I mean, I think that, as I've said previously, I think we are already in a recession. We expect the ISM to go below 50 over the course of the summer, so July or August probably.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And Ronnie, so dinner is served, so gold investors sounds like they will have a nice feast if the Federal Reserve pivots. If the Federal Reserve doesn't pivot, or rather if they don't pivot what we would consider soon, if they get to 4% and then stay at 4% for a while and then gradually cut later and they do hike monetary policy, they do hike rates. What's your outlook on gold then? If the Fed does sort of increase the short-term rate a lot to 4%.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it's basically you're seeing that small speculators, which is, I don't know, it's basically the retail investors primarily. They have thrown in the towel. On the other hand, commercials have significantly reduced their short positions and increased their long positions. From my point of view, the commitment of traders report is it is not really a timing indicator, but it tells you where we are roughly in this cycle. So it basically tells you, well, the dinner is already prepared, but nobody said, well, come to the table, dinner is served. So at some point, we will get there. And as we've said previously, I think this will go hand in hand with this. Fed pivot that will happen at some point.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Therefore, that makes me pretty confident timing wise, as I've mentioned, the commitment of traders report is really exciting. So that's a very, very strong foundation. And let's face it, we're not so far away from all-time highs also in US dollar terms. So as soon as the dollar should start to weaken, which is going to happen at some point, then I think if we tackle new all-time highs, then basically the sky is the limit. And what's very important on an inflation adjusted basis, if you compare it to 1980, gold is still really, really inexpensive. So it's not an expensive price level that we're talking about at the moment.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“will increase significantly. And I think what's really going to be moving the needle will be investors' demand check. So I think that now we're close to the end of the second quarter. I talk to many private bankers. And the first quarter was a disaster. So there are balanced portfolios were down like between 8 to 12 percent. Second quarter, even worse. I think Jim Reid just came out saying that we're experiencing in US bond markets. It's the worst start into the year or the worst performance year to date since 1788. So then you get second quarter being down significantly. What are asset managers going to do after 25, 30 percent negative performance?”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Didolarization going on with the huge turmoil that we are seeing now in terms of geopolitics. I think that the world will going forward, it will need internationally recognized anchor of trust. And I think gold is neutral. Gold doesn't have any counterparty risk. And it is actually one of the most liquid assets worldwide. It traded 150 US billion US dollars on a daily basis last year. So it's extremely liquid. So I think at some point where we really see that the world is breaking into at least two different blocks, I think that the role of gold as in this monetary multipolarity.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We haven't had Oktoberfest in Munich for two years and actually the price of one Mars, which is one liter beer at the Oktoberfest, I think it's up 19%. So one liter is roughly 14 euros. So actually in gold, it has the purchasing power is pretty stable. And I think this is really the job of gold, protecting your purchasing power, protecting your hard-earned money. And this is, from my point of view, this is really crucial to understand. Then obviously you can also trade around gold. You can invest in mining stocks and so on. This is what I would call more of a performance gold compared to insurance or safety gold. But I think going forward with the whole...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Actually, you only need one revaluation of gold in your lifetime. And actually, Jack, I'm not sure, to be honest, if the euro will be around in five or ten years. I'm slightly more sure about the US dollar, but actually for both currencies, I just don't see that the purchasing power measured in various goods will increase significantly. Now I believe that gold is doing its job pretty well to protect your purchasing power. We've got this famous gold beer ratio where we show the purchasing power of one ounce of gold at the Munich Oktoberfest, where you see inflation rates being significantly higher than official inflation rates. And actually, you know,”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The case for gold and for bitcoin basically stops. That would mean that we've got sound money that we've got healthy interest rates that the debt situation isn't a problem at all, that we've got a free capitalist system. Well, actually, that's totally fine. We're not married to gold to Bitcoin, just to our wives. So I think at some point probably we will say, well, let's lower our gold allocation. But I think we are not at this stage yet. And we had a great interview with FOFOR, which is kind of a mysterious legendary blogger who has really, it's a very interesting blog. And he calls Gold a singularity hedge. And he says, well,”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think I'm short term. I think that it's a healthy risk-reward ratio. And long term, I don't, I really don't like the term gold buck. I think it's just an appreciation of monetary history that we have an understanding of monetary history. And I just don't see that our monetary history, our monetary system will go down in deflation. It has always been inflation. And us being from Austria, where we had the hyperinflation and then Germany followed with their Weimar hyperinflation, I think this is still in our, as I've once said, in our monetary DNA. So, you know, let's face it, if the...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Am I right about that? And sort of like, what's your outlook over the next six months? And please feel free to draw in whatever, whether it's the central banks, it's money printing, or it's the Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, so yeah, Bitcoin and gold are fundamentally similar in that they're forms of hard money, but they can trade very, very differently as we've seen over the past two years. They diverged in August of 2020 when Bitcoin continued on its bull run when gold sort of faltered. And likewise, over the past eight months, Bitcoin has entered a bear market where gold has done well relative to other assets. So I forgot about the fact that your fund and incrementum, you know, you rebalance. I can imagine that that has been very helpful because people who've been 100% long gold or 100% long Bitcoin, they've at some point they've suffered. And so I definitely can get the advantage of rebalancing. So Ronnie, it sounds like you and Mark are very long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but short term, there's still a little bit of a shakeout happening. What about gold? I get the sense, Ronnie, that on gold, you're bullish, not long-term bullish, you're bullish now. You're sort of ring the bell for gold right now.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I think if this adoption progresses like it does at the moment, I think the scenario that Bitcoin will be at zero in 10 years is becoming much more less likely. So therefore, I think that that makes us pretty confident going forward. When it comes to the sentiment in newspapers and also People that actually hate Bitcoin because for some reason everybody”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Adoption rate is still very, very solid. I see that the whole Bitcoin ecosystem is growing. I see that Bitcoin is attracting so much capital, but so much human resources. I think this is really important that it actually behaves like a, how do you say, like a magnet for young, ambitious talent going into this sector? And I have to say, you know, if we attend conferences, the smartest and also, you know, the most ambitious, hard-working, also the craziest guys obviously we meet at Bitcoin conferences. So therefore, I think we regard it as rather binary. So in 10 years from now, Bitcoin can either be worth zero or it will be worth a million or even more.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If we had sound money, actually there wouldn't be any case for holding gold or for holding Bitcoin. Probably this Satoshi Nakamoto, whoever it was, if we had sound money, then probably nobody would know who Satoshi is. And there wouldn't be any Bitcoin. But I think it is crystal clear that as some sort of hedge, as a monetary insurance policy, I think both totally make sense. I think that when it comes to price, or let's say when it comes to the future of Bitcoin, usually there's three things that really are essential. It's volatility, it's price and the correlation to other assets. In the case of Bitcoin, I think we should not forget the fourth parameter, which is the adoption rate. And I think the adoption of the...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Contacts in a libertarian scene. And for us, it took a while to really understand it. But then I think we realized that it is actually, there's many similarities between gold and Bitcoin. And the most important one, obviously, is the stock to flow ratio. So you can trust based on geology that the supply of gold will not double over the next couple of weeks, month, whatever. So gold is limited by geological restrictions. It is just much, much harder and more expensive to mine gold. And on the other hand, you've got a very similar thing when it comes to Bitcoin. And we know that at the moment... Stock to flow ratio, or let's say the inflation rate of Bitcoin and of gold is basically at the same level, 1.6%, and with the next halving, Bitcoin will be a harder currency than gold. Now we think that if we had...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If I may add, Jack, I think it's crucial to say, and that actually that's our approach, we actually enjoy the volatility as we are basically harvesting the volatility of Bitcoin via our option strategy. And we are rebalancing within our funds. So it is not a stubborn long only strategy where we say, well, Bitcoin will go to the moon and that's it. I think we've got a slightly different approach to many people in this industry. I think when it comes to Bitcoin itself and also to gold, we discovered Bitcoin in 2012 or 2013 through our knowledge about gold and...”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Framework. This would be prices between 15K and 20K, so not so much lower actually. I would doubt that it goes to a third halving, so I would doubt that we see prices sub 10K. I don't think so. Everything is possible, obviously, obviously. But as I said, I think that's also the level, you know, when people really have some kind of capitulated. If you have coming from 40,000 and now say the price is 17, 15,000, you barely don't even care if it goes down below 10,000 or not. But that would be significant. It would be another halving, right? If you have 18,000 and go down to 9,000, that's another minus 50%. And people, I think, don't think like that when they're really so deep in the red. And they have kind of capitulated. So I'd say 15,000, I'd definitely buy between 20 and 50, I'd buy.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Second halving would be between 15 and 20,000 dollars. And then the question is, if we look at the previous bear markets, we had three and maximum four halves almost. So the first one, I think, was four halving, and then it became less and less. And I think if we have two price halves, I think that's quite a severe bear market at this point. So that translates to price levels very roughly, obviously. This is only very roughly, but just to have some kind of”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When it comes to price levels, I do watch some levels and this is also only a very simplistic rule which I came up probably others also think similarly. But I think one way to basically manage this exponential performance going up and down is not thinking so much in percentage terms, but like in how often the price has doubled and when it goes down, how often it halved, so not to be confused with the Bitcoin halving, just the halving of the price, right? And when we saw 69,000 roughly at the high, we've been coming down for, we halved once, then we would be somewhere in the mid-30s after one halving price halving.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, Market. And if I, thanks for that. I think it's very prudent to definitely not call a bottom in any asset. It makes a lot of sense to me. Mark, my question is just to get a little bit more specifics, is there a certain level on Bitcoin in terms of price in dollars or euros or time, you said November, or something else that you would see as a very clear capitulation?”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But there could also be obviously a final sell off, which we haven't seen yet, I think. So I think both of these thoughts would point to not the super recovery very short term. Obviously, if you have the other point which we have talked about, which would be kind of the pivoting of the monetary policy and perhaps sell-off before that, that could be a really nice setup for reversal and perhaps the next bull market in the second half of this year.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Could be made, and these are exposed now. So this crypto cyclic and Bitcoin cyclic is very rough, but it's also very fast. So the cleansing goes through pretty fast. It's probably too short to call the bear market ending already now, I would say, just from the duration of the bear market. Probably need a little bit more, I don't know, pain, but at least more lack of interest where everybody really only the hardcore bulls remain. Perhaps one also needs a real supercapitulation. I think we didn't see that yet. I'm not calling for one. It could also just end in kind of non-interest, this bear market.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is moving along the lines as the last bear markets. And I think according to the model, at least according to the last two cyclists, halving cyclists, we would have seen, we would be seeing basically if we see some kind of a repeat again, a low point in November. So that's one rough indication which one could, I think, have in mind. Obviously probably will not be November exactly, but just roughly in fall. I think that that could make sense. And also, I think just when one looks at general sentiment indicators or anecdotal evidence, I think we saw a lot of crypto projects which obviously also, again, were too enthusiastic and there were actually no significant value.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I think even though now lately he has not been given so much credit, Plan B's model, I think still has value. Maybe he personally became a little bit too bullish at the end of the bull market last time around. But if you just look at what the model said and when it comes to the cycle, I think the timing was actually quite well again. And the high point, perhaps the model suggested the high point being a little bit higher, but just when it comes to the timing of the high, one could, I think, make the argument that this model still is very much in play right now. And if one takes that as some kind of a starting point, this bear market again.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Haven't gone up very much, they've been coming down again, so that's, I think, definitely part of the reason when it comes to gold, also why this lackluster performance has taken place. And if this inflation expectations would rise again, I think Bitcoin has a good chance to profit also from that. That's only one factor. That's surely not the determining factor. But generally, obviously speaking, I think an inflationary environment and negative real rates are tailwind for Bitcoin.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Their normalization process when they're retired, the word temporary, I think that was exactly in November 21 when they were talking not longer talking about temporary inflation rates, which was the first signal to the market that they perhaps will raise interest rates. So that coincides pretty well with the high point. So yeah, I think real rates do play a role. But what I also think is in both cases actually, although we have seen pretty negative correlation lately between gold and Bitcoin, but in the longer term, I still think that inflation expectations are very important for both assets and longer-term inflation expectations.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think what one can observe when it comes to Bitcoin, it has become obviously in terms of market caps more and more bigger. I mean, over the years, this year, so it has become a little bit of a macro play, maybe a stretch, but it did east partly at least in the universe of institutional players. And once it enters this sphere, I think it gets more exposure to other macro factors, right? So when you think about Bitcoin, when it was in the early stage, when it had, I don't know, the first two bull markets, the market cap, I think was perhaps first one, 50 million or so. Second bull market was perhaps 300 million or so. Half a trillion. I think we only reached a trillion in 2017 barely, not even.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just want to clarify a few points. The first is when people who view this who like me are American, they think, oh, gold, it's been all right year to date, but you're saying priced in yen, priced in euro, gold has been an extraordinary performer because those currencies have been weak against gold as well as against the dollar. Gold relative to the dollar has been roughly flat this year, which doesn't sound great, but people should keep it buying that the S&P 500 is down 20%. Long-duration treasury bonds are down 30, maybe a little bit more. And then, of course, the 60-40 portfolio where 60% stocks is supposed to be held by 40% bonds. Those have gone down together. So it's been one of the worst years for the 60, 40 portfolios. Ronnie, I want to bring you into this conversation. In what environment do you think Bitcoin performs especially well? Is it one of sort of suppressed real yields?”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Quite a lot of the gold price development. It actually should be significantly lower and the fact that it's holding up so well even in dollar terms, I think that's, I would interpret it as a sign of strength.”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tend to forget that we are in a brutal bull market for the US dollar that works like kind of a wrecking ball for markets all over for risk assets, for emerging markets, obviously. So at some point obviously this will change. Probably this will go hand in hand with the point when Jay Powell has to pivot. But it hasn't been recently, especially in 2021. It hasn't been such a great environment to some degree. But let's talk about the future. I think if you have a close look at the commitment of traders report, this is a fantastic setup. And I think that, as I've said before, having a look at real yields, I think that gold based on real yields which explain”
2022-06-30 · Forward Guidance · Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT