YouSaid · the spoken record

Ronnie Stoeferle

lines on the record: 51
first: 2021-12-31
most recent: 2021-12-31
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Thank you very much, Jack. Yeah, thanks for inviting me. Happy holidays. Have a good new year and I'll see you still. Thank you very much.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Come on. I mean, do team Bitcoin and gold against the central bank. I mean, that should be the competition, but not Bitcoin against gold. I think their friends, they're cousins, brothers, whatever. So yeah, that's my take on that.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tough one. I don't want to answer. Actually, you know, I think the way we, I mean, I'm heavily invested in our funds. We've got skin in the game. And we're just doing both. And we are rebalancing between gold and Bitcoin. We're using the options market to gauge the volatility. And I've been an analyst for too long. And it's tough, but I think from a money manager perspective, I think that's the prudent way. And, you know, it's relative to, as I've said previously, I think it's just this competition that we're seeing, who was it Michael Saylor against the representative of the Gold Camp?”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At a million or something like that. I mean, that sounds like a ridiculous number at the moment. But, you know, imagine what happened to real estate prices. Imagine what's happened to in the art market. So it can happen. And actually, with just the stuff that is going on this year with El Salvador, for example, I mean, that's one of the most fascinating monetary experiments of the last couple of decades. I think there's so much going on. I think that at some point sovereign wealth funds or even central banks will start buying Bitcoin. So, yeah. It's going to be a fun ride, but it's going to be a volatile ride”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On signal or telegram, so they came back to WhatsApp. So I think, and this is what Jeff Booth brilliantly described. So I think really the next system or the next Bitcoin would have to be probably 10 times more valuable to the users. And I just don't see a competitor at the moment. Of course, it can change, definitely. If that scenario is right, I mean, if gold goes to 4,800 US dollars, that will probably go hand in hand with inflation. That will go hand in hand with deeply negative real rates. And I don't see Bitcoin not doing very well in that environment. It's hard to put on a price tag, but I think in 10 years from now, why shouldn't we be trading as...”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, well, for Bitcoin, I think it's pretty much binary. And I think we know the Lindy effect. We know what's going on, how flexible it actually is, how strong it is, how big the community and the user base nowadays is. I sometimes make the comparison with WhatsApp. I mean, there was a time when I don't know, I think there was mostly in the European Union where everybody was really scared. You know, they're changing their privacy rules and stuff. And then at some point so many people said, well, I'm leaving WhatsApp. I'm just leaving WhatsApp. I'm going to signal or to Telegram. And then many people realized, well, the network doesn't have any value if there is only 10 or 15% of your contacts.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, well, for gold, we've got a very simple value The backing of the M2 monetary aggregate for the United States. So you can read what's in this model in our 2020 report. And we come up with a price target at $4,800 by the end of this decade, which sounds like a lot, but I mean 1970s highly inflationary decade gold was trading at 30 bucks in 71 and then it went up to 850. Who would have believed that? And we saw the big mid cycle correction from $200 down to $100. And then from $100 up to $800 within four years. So this can happen. And now I think gold is really some sort of an anti-bubble.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so on. And I think being against cryptos would also mean you're against the digital world and you're betting against that. And I just don't see that happening.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“in the NFTs are fascinating i to be honest i don't understand uh all the stuff that is coming out all the time it's just so hard to to follow it but but everybody telling me well this is just a bubble i i'll keep telling them well well then you say that technology is a bubble and that the digital world is a bubble If you think that we will go back to the old world, fair enough, then we probably won't need any cryptos. We won't need Bitcoin. But I don't think that we're going to go back. And then I think that the COVID crisis was definitely also a catalyst for that. We all got accustomed to doing meetings on Zoom. My dad, who is like 75 years old, I mean, he's totally fine with MS teams, with Zoom.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“normal and just healthy, but I think that in general the fact that so many young people now really try to get out of the monetary system. And, you know, Michael Saylor, for example, he was on TV a couple of times and he said really from a philosophical point of view fantastic things and I think this is really spreading like a wildfire so so this pure speculation of course this is one part of the whole story thank god it's not it's not the whole story but I think that yeah as I've said it's it's a fascinating journey and it's it's not only Bitcoin it's the whole you know the whole DeFi space I think in in”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being in both worlds. I think it's highly rewarding. I think that this is something that I miss at the moment a bit. I don't want to sound like old frustrated guy, but I think at the very beginning when I found out about Bitcoin, I think that most people really understood the flaws of our monetary system. So they were questioning what is money. Why is Bitcoin better money than gold perhaps or the US dollars? And now over the last couple of months, it has clearly become an object of pure speculation. So a bigger correction can happen anytime. Perhaps we've already seen the beginning, which will be...”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We saw it in August 2020. It's also a leading indicator on the upside. We saw that as well. The crash low in March 2020, for example. So I think Bitcoin at the moment is more of an indicator for risk appetite of investors, but those correlations, they can change. And as you know, we published a chartbook on Bitcoin quite recently, and it's showing the rolling correlation between gold and Bitcoin. And actually, this correlation is over the longer term. It's basically zero. But then there is episodes where they're highly correlated and then they're negatively correlated. So it's changing all the time. It's really fascinating. So, you know, I have to say I really enjoy.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Infrastructure, the futures market, options market, they were really, really, really just getting started. Now this whole market is developing. You've got the big guys coming in, which is really odd because normally they're talking about smart money and dump money and at the end of the cycle there's always the dump money coming in, which is retail investors. But here it's kind of the opposite because it started with a tech savvy retail investors and only now the big institutions are coming in. So I think at the moment it seems that Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. I think it was a pretty good leading indicator on the downside for the S&P. We saw that in the end of 2017, we saw it in February 2020.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Back in the days when I started, I basically could mine bitcoins on a normal PC. Now that's completely impossible. I think there's many similarities and I think that over the last couple of years, Bitcoin really grew up very quickly. So it's not a kid anymore. It's not a teenager anymore probably. I don't know a young professional or whatever. So when we started our first fund that combines physical gold with Bitcoin and cold storage, where we're using actually the volatility, volatility is our friend. So we are harvesting the volatility via the options market, writing options all the time. Back then, it was the”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Between gold and bitcoin. So it's no coincidence. For example, the stock to flow ratio, high stock to flow ratio is really crucial for a solid money. I think it's no coincidence that your mining Bitcoin you have to put in enormous amounts of effort to get gold out of the ground. I mean here I've got a Solidus coin. It's more than 1500 years old. And you know back then obviously you didn't have the technology that you're having nowadays to mine five grams of gold for one ton of ore. I mean you have to imagine that 0.5 grams in one ton of ore how complex it is. And it's similar with Bitcoin.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, through the whole libertarian scene, I found out about Bitcoin very early on, I think, in 2012 or 2013. And to be honest, back then, I wouldn't have expected to become that big. Really, it is really watching history happening. And I've met so many tremendous people, bright young people, super ambitious people seeing only solutions and not only problems while in the banking world. This pessimism is quite frustrating that you're seeing in a traditional financial world. So this is really for me, it's been a great journey. Now, I think there's many, many similarities between”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Then you will have your Fed wallet. And if the economy is weakening, then check you'll get on your Fed wallet 5,000 bucks, but you will have to spend it. And if you don't spend it, it will be worthless or the value will decrease by 10% every week, something like that. And of course, it will have an impact on the economy. But is this a prudent way to allocate capital? I would doubt it. But I think that really CBDCs are the next big thing, unfortunately. The complete opposite of Bitcoin because they are centralized. They're just something completely opposite. Yeah, I think that's going to happen.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cryptocurrencies, they will be implemented to fine-tune the cycle. Now the thing about a cycle is that it's going up and down. And if you avoid the recession, if you avoid the downturn, you will only make it worse for the next downturn because a recession is something normal, something really, really healthy. So as we're trying to do everything to avoid bankruptcies and banks from failing, I think that the next crisis will probably be worse. And if CBDCs will be implemented, I think I can imagine, and this sounds a bit crazy at the moment, but...”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And probably it is going to be a combination of, first of all, fiscal financial repression, deeply negative real rates. It will probably, we will probably see much more aggressive moves, as I've said before. Central banks buying equities, trying to really influence or completely take over the last rest of the last pieces of market forces and capitalism. So this is going to happen, but I think that CBDCs will also play a major role going forward. And I think if you read what's coming out from the bank for international settlements and the most important central banks, CBDCs that use the momentum of”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, for the Bank of England, they made a rate hike, I think, quite unexpected. For the ECB, everybody is expecting that they will start considering some tapering. I think it's going to happen, but it's not going to have a big impact because they're so way behind the curve. Even in the last cycle, you know, the Federal Reserve at least had some leeway to lower rates. We didn't have them in the Eurozone. So, you know, it just tells me that we call it the zero rate trap. We wrote a book about that. And I think that this is playing out perfectly, unfortunately. So the big question is, what's the way out?”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, central bank girls worldwide are really stuck between a rock and a hard place. One is inflation, and there's a lot of political pressure there. And on the other hand, if they are too hawkish and they raise hike rates too fast, they could tank the stock market and tank economic growth. There's a German word zugzwang of being forced to act. So we covered the Federal Reserve. What's going on in the Bank of England and the ECB? I understand that we're recording this on Thursday, December 16th. both had an announcement there. What's going on with their policies and how does that shape your outlook?”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A toolbox. What's left in a toolbox of the Federal Reserve? Not too much. So I think that yield curve control will be implemented at some point. I think that the Federal Reserve will buy equities at some point. But I think that fiscal policy will play a much larger role going forward.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is pretty dangerous, and the big question obviously is, you know, it's a confidence game. How quickly can Jay Powell make the U-turn? Now that he moved from very dovish to, as the market would see it, kind of hawkish and fighting inflation, how quickly can he make this U-turn again? Over here in the Eurozone, I mean, at least Mrs. Lagarde never even tried to make a U-turn. So that makes it a bit easier for her. But that's the big question. What will they do if the markets go down 50 or 20%? I think the most important member of the FOMC is the S&P 500. And therefore, I mean, what's left?”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of decelerating compared to previous episodes. We know that asset markets are much more important to consumer health than previously. So it's a very much financialized economy where consumer sentiment is extremely strongly linked to equity markets and to the housing market. If we consider that and also have a look at the current market setup, I mean the S&P probably is a really bad gauge for the overall health of the stock market or our economy. There were some really good studies coming out from Goldman and Monk Stanley basically saying that only 5% were responsible for the majority of the moves. in the s p and also in the”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So even if they get the Fed funds rate up to 1% next year, it still will result in deeply negative real rates. So everybody telling me that they are so hawkish now. Sorry, that's nonsense. They're still extremely dovish. And if we now compare this current tapering environment, we shouldn't forget, first of all, the Fed is tapering now twice as fast as the last time. We shouldn't forget that asset prices are far higher at the moment. The Killer PEs at 40, which is 98%. So only in 2% of all instances, equity valuations were higher. We know that growth is now”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Our inflation credit only until the end of 2024. We can be at 3%. I've got no clue how it's going to turn out, but I think really if you think about what it actually means, it's pretty striking. You know, Jack, what I really missed over the last couple of days is when everybody was talking about the Federal Reserve and this big hawkish move. I mean, first of all, their forecast for 2022 is the inflation forecast is 2.7% for next year compared to 2.3% previously. And I already told you before that the track record is not really outstanding.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I think if you think about that concept, it's ridiculous. And what's really striking to me, and this is why we prepared this chart, the framework of this flexible inflation targeting is not very well communicated. So nobody is telling us what the timeframe is and for how long inflation rates can actually overshoot. So we did like two scenarios starting in 2012, saying, well, this is our inflation budget, and if we use it up until the end of next year, so December 2022, then we can be at above 5% the whole year. And if we say, well, we will use it up.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you know, if we take a step back and talk about this concept of flexible average inflation targeting. It means central bankers keep telling us, well, we are really sorry, but we didn't devalue your purchasing power enough over the last couple of years. We're sorry about that. But now going forward, we've got leeway to devalue it even more.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fed is right that inflation is transitory. So for the longer term, it is not being seen as a concern. But I think at some point the market will realize, well, perhaps it's stickier than everybody thinks.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're skyrocketing. They were at 40 euros per megawatt hour at the beginning of the year. Now they are at 200. And I mean, for an economy like Germany, it is heavily dependent on the industry. I mean, that's a huge driver. So it will trickle down to producer prices and it will trickle down to consumer prices. So I think I was at be careful what you wish for. It might come true. Now it's happening. But I think that many or most investors haven't realized that inflation will stay around. And this is also what you're seeing if you have a look at longer-term inflation expectations. So the market, especially the bond market, still believes that the”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's also due to the base effect and so on. And I think that most of the supply disruption that we're seeing, at some point in our system with entrepreneurial creativity and the globalized market, I think those issues will be resolved at some point. So the supply disruptions, I think, will become less and less of a problem. But I think that's our take. This great...”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We saw it with the gold silver ratio. We saw it with monetary growth coming in lower. We're seeing it as it seems that we are also tapering into the weakness, obviously. So I cannot rule out that we'll have a recession next year. We're seeing it with the US dollar being very, very strong, which is also a deflationary trigger. So from my point of view, my kind of roadmap is, and this is confirmed by our incrementum inflation signal, I think that this inflation panic that we have seen over the last couple of weeks, this will kind of fade. So I think in spring, inflation won't be such a big topic still. And this will give central bankers probably some leeway to become more dovish again. But I think that”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. No, I think it's important to clarify. It's really not the absolute level, but it's rather the direction. So in general, I would say that disinflation is the worst environment for gold. Rising inflation is a positive environment. Deflation to some degree is also a positive environment, but disinflation is the worst environment. And I think over the last couple of weeks we saw some disinflationary moves in markets, which is interesting because Jay Powell now made the U-turn saying, well, you know, inflation perhaps it's not transitory, while the markets are suggesting that at least for the next couple of months, inflation rates will probably rather fall. So we saw it with most of the commodity markets.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you know, it's fairly easy. The higher the debt level, the greater the sensitivity to rising rates. So therefore, I think in this economy that is so heavily financialized, I think there's no way that we'll go back to dramatically higher positive real rates. Perhaps nominal rates will go higher, but real rates will stay negative probably for the next couple of years. I'm pretty certain about that. And this already brings me back to gold. We crunch the numbers and negative real rates are the foundation of every gold bull market. The 1980s and 1990s, two horrible decades for gold investors. Why? Because we primarily had positive real rates. So if you think... That real rates will rise significantly, then say goodbye to gold, obviously. I don't think so.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, there wouldn't be any discussion about tapering, about, you know, when is the rate hike cycle going to start? They would just raise rates by 50 basis points. I mean, when did they start raising rates by 25 basis points? It used to be 50 basis points or a percent. So I think this is already telling you quite a lot the fact that the market only seems to care when does tapering start? Will there be two or three rate hike cycles next year that shows you how dependent we are on low rates and cheap liquidity? And, you know, as far as I know that debt levels are not down significantly both on a government level, but also for corporates on a personal level.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, first of all, because the Federal Reserve has probably the worst forecasting track record ever. Dave Rosenberg had that recently and he analyzed everything back to 2012. It was a total of 110 data points. And he said for the Fed funds rate, the Fed forecasts had an accuracy of 37%. So that's not a lot. For core inflation, 29%. For real GDP growth, 17%. So they are usually biased to higher Fed funds rate and to stronger economic growth, then we end up seeing. So they always try to sound very hawkish, but then at the end they're... Extremely dubbish. So, this is one thing. Then check, we have seen it. If we would be in a solid and healthy monetary system.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it went basically from May 2019 until August 2020 from 1300 to new all-time highs at 2070. So that was a pretty big move. And I think that we now really have to digest this move. You know, Then I think we are now moving into an environment where everybody believes that this is the beginning of the Great Ray Tike cycle and tapering and now we are going back to monetary prudence and everything is going to be fine. Well, this will be the shortest rate hike cycle, the shortest and the shallowest rate hike cycle ever. I mean, I'll bet a lot of money on that.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Be too greedy when it comes to gold, and 25% is actually in one year for an asset class like gold at $11 trillion. That's a pretty big move. So we shouldn't really expect Bitcoin-like performance from gold. I think one more thing that people tend to forget in May 2019, guess where gold was trading then?”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think that, I mean, that's, you know, check, we wrote, I think more than more than 3,000 pages of research over the last 15 years about gold. And I think that the direction and the momentum of long-term real rates is probably the most important driver for gold. I think that many people are a bit upset and even angry that gold didn't provide its role as an inflation hedge. But my take is that gold is sniffing out future inflation very, very early on. And as I've said, gold was up, you know, it was up, I think, 19% in 2019. It was up 25% in 2020. Year to date, gold in dollar terms, it's down 6%. In Euro terms and in many other currencies, it's up this year. So I think that people shouldn't”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are even higher. But there's also a fair chance that it's not going to be around. Do I think that gold will do a pretty good job to preserve your purchasing power over the next 10 years? Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. But this also comes with the fact that then obviously the upside is significantly lower than with a new technology than Bitcoin. For us, it makes sense to combine both. I know that this is something that many people in the gold camp don't like, but also in the Bitcoin camp. As an Austrian, I'm spending lots of time in the mountains and I go skiing and I go snowboarding. I go snowboarding mostly off pist and I go skiing on the pists, which is a good... Good combination from my point of view, but many skiers hate the snowboarders and the snowboarders hate the skiers.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a bit frustrating this year, to be honest. And Bitcoin, of course, I think there's many, many similarities. Satoshi Nakamoto, whoever it was, I think he understood the monetary system, he understood Austrian economics, he understood the stock to flow ratio that we wrote about already in our first book, Austrian School for Investors. And therefore, I think that his vision was really to create something similar to gold in a digital world. And with the next halving cycle, Bitcoin will be harder money than gold. This will continue. Do I know if Bitcoin will be around in 10 years? I've got no clue. I think so. I think so. And if it will be around in 10 years, it's probably going to trade at a million.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Money helps us to save time. It is an abstraction for time and energy. Then I think that compared to Fiat money, that gold and Bitcoin are superior forms of money and more stable forms of money. So to answer your question, we think and I think that not too many people within the gold camp, but also within the Bitcoin camp, we think that it's prudent to combine both. You know, gold for stability and Bitcoin for convexity. Of course, the track record of gold is more than 5,000 years. Trust comes from repeatedly fulfilling expectations. And I think that gold did a Great job also in 2020. Gold was up 25.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To bitcoin and to gold, it's a non-sovereign hedge against the monetary debasement, against an environment of deeply negative real rates. It's a hedge against ultra-loose monetary policy. It's a hedge against governments monetizing, ballooning government deficits. It's a hedge against financial repression. I think most of the problems that we are facing are systemic problems and those systemic problems cannot be solved from within the system. So you actually have to get a hedge outside of the system. And I think that gold and bitcoin help you to go to the other side. So if you think that money is basically some sort of technology,”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of course, we are seeing the consequences of this, as Ludwig von Mises would have called it, a crack-up boom, or in German we say catastrophen hoss, which is a beautiful term. And I think the fact that real estate prices are going crazy, that the art market is going crazy, that an artist can sell an invisible piece of art for 15,000 US dollars that bond markets are trading at ridiculous levels. I just had a look at Greek government that 10 years are trading at one point.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Short answer is because they are not inflatable. So buying gold and buying Bitcoin is the conscious decision to sell dollars, to sell euros and exchange it for something that cannot be inflated at will. So the inflation rate of Bitcoin end of gold is basically the same at the moment. It's 1.6%. So with every Bitcoin and every ounce of gold that you own, the natural inflation at the moment is 1.6%. And it's Jack, it's all about relative scarcity. In an environment, in a sound money environment, you actually, there's no case for Bitcoin probably. There's no case for gold. But we are definitely not in a sound money environment.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going to come down the next couple of weeks and months. So this will give some leeway to central bankers probably telling us, well, the whole inflation thing is over. But I think that we will have to get accustomed to inflation rates being above the 2%. So I don't see hyperinflation right away, but I think that 3, 4, 5% inflation rates will become the new normal. And let's face it, you know, during the great moderation for decades basically falling inflation rates. Most of the investors, politicians, central bankers, business owners, they don't know how to navigate in the environment of inflation. So I think this will catch many, many people on the wrong foot. And I think this is really... Really crucial to understand going forward.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Loans up to £600,000. So the risk is being shuffled from the bank over to the government, to society at large basically. And I think the big difference compared to 2008-2009 is in this crisis M2 started to skyrocket already while during the GFC It was only high-powered money, so central bank money going through the roof and basically trying to compensate for this credit destruction that we saw. So I think there are many, many differences. And as we're seeing now, of course, we don't believe the narrative that inflation is only transitory. I think it's what...”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This fiscal dominance can be seen the proverbial frugal Swabian housewife, even in Germany nobody cares about budget deficits anymore. And I think the mastery criteria, for example, it will be renegotiated. So I think that big government is back. I think that's a major difference. I think that politicians really enjoy being in the driver's seat now and trying to fine-tune the economic cycle and to avoid every recession. That's a big change. Then we have seen this move to credit guarantees, which is very, very important. So in the UK, for example, you had first-time house buyers, you had the government guaranteeing you.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Back then, CPI in the US was at 1.2%. Now we're at almost 7%. So inflation is becoming a topic again. And now you asked what the main difference of this monetary climate change is. First of all, I think that theories like MMT, helicopter money, universal basic income, stuff like that, I think this is really becoming mainstream. And this was before the COVID crisis, I think it was primarily a topic of more left-wing economists sitting in the ivory towers, but now it is really becoming mainstream. And it's not a question of if, but a question of when it will be implemented. And I think to some degree we already see it. Then I think those”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“After the GFC, central bank has never got tired to tell us, well, inflation is too low. We have to do more. We have to be more aggressive to get inflation numbers up. Now they are significantly above their target rates. And I mean, one year ago we published a special report on inflation that was called inflation and the boy who cried wolf.”
2021-12-31 · Forward Guidance · Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT