YouSaid · the spoken record

Ruchir Sharma

lines on the record: 122
first: 2016-11-18
most recent: 2016-11-18
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I mean, like, I'm on the investing side, so I'm on the investment management side. So I don't write research for external good. But what I do write are op-eds very frequently.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or 30, 40 years to hang my hat on that, and it's chicken exterior as to which one comes first. Is it good education or is it economic success, which then leads to the funding? I mean, for good education. So I'd say that that is what I'd say that I wish I'd known back then. But that's the process of evolution, which is that you just learn these things over time. But the fact that we at least have 10 things, and I'm very pleased to share that with the rest of the world so that I can have this debate about how to improve this system, is what I feel good about.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, but I'm saying, yeah. And also eliminating as to what does not matter. Like, you know, all these myths that education really matters for economic growth. Yeah, but the evidence is very mixed that the time it takes for education to move the needle for economic growth is much longer than you and I can sort of be here. It's better to have it than not.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As I said, the emerging markets have really evolved a lot over time. But what I'm really happy with is that at least I've come up with now a structure of thinking about them, these 10 rules, right? I mean, like, because often what happens when you speak about countries, it's not just true of emerging, but even of the US or other developed countries, is that we have these unstructured water cooler type conversations. Oh, this country looks good because of this. This country looks bad because I don't like that leader or something like that. I think what I'm really happy about is that at least I've been able to come up with, okay, these are the 10 things you should really look at. And this is how you should look at them.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Line that someone told me very early on, which I followed to, which is that live life in parallel and not in series Which is that so many people at a young age love to plan. I'll do this five years from now, I'll put this off 10 years from now. Hey, if you can do it today, do it. Who knows what's going to happen? Right. You really never can tell. Yeah. So I'd say that at least for happiness, that's important. Now, whether that's a success formula, I don't know. But I think it makes you happier to live life in parallel than in series.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, like I'm a bit sort of, I find it a bit presumptuous to give advice to people because I find that each one's to their own. I mean, I never followed anyone's advice while growing up, to be honest with you, because I was at a very young age. I got very interested in writing and investing and just followed my passion. And sometimes at work, sometimes that doesn't work. And I was about to come here in the US to do my PhD. And someone from Morgan Stanley who liked my work while hiring me basically told me that do you want to study or do you want to make money? I said, I want to make money and I didn't study more. And I think I learned more by sort of working real time. But it works for some. It doesn't work for the others. So I find it presumptuous to give advice. But I think very important to know that there is no one size fits all formula. There is no mantra for success and you got to do this. And that'll happen. But you got to find out who you are and sort of follow that passion. And for me, my entire sort of thing is that you got to sort of.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They've become much more sort of structured now. I mean, when I started 20 years ago, it was a bit of a cowboy land, which is more frontier than American. Exactly. You know, like the rules weren't entirely cleared, how you got research was much more unstructured. And then you had all sorts of corporate governance issues in these markets. So I think that's become a lot better now over time. And the integration is much more real now. So I'd say that there's been a big improvement in terms of as far as emerging markets are concerned, but I still find traveling is very useful. But the big change, I'd say, is the fact that it's a lot more structured now compared to the cowboy days of 2025 years ago when I first started looking at these countries.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, you know, like, in fact, exactly. And also, like, some of the film festivals, like, I watched, I was in the New York Film Festival in October. I think I watched a dozen movies. Right. At Lincoln Center at one of the most spectacular places to watch a movie is The Alice Tully Hall I find. I mean, I just love sitting or the Walter Reed Theatre. So I really like doing that and going to film festivals, I think, is a great way of doing that. I'm going to tell you right earlier this year. I've been to Venice, Cannes, I've been to these places. So I think I find it fascinating to do film festivals. And in New York, of course, you have two film festivals which are great. The New York Film Festival, I think, is like absolutely brilliant. And then at a smaller level, we have the Tribeca. It's an Eros Film Festival. So I'd say that watching, going to film festivals, watching some international cinema, learning about the social fabric of another country through that. And of course, European cinema is just lifestyle voyeurism, right? I mean, you can just watch any European cinema. The setting is so spectacular. And, you know, like the mannerisms are...”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I mean, like, I like doing it the old classical way, which is going into a theater, locking yourself in for two hours without any access to technology and seeing it. And the other passion.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Interesting, the way that it's European, Iranian, but there's some great international cinema. And I find that, so I don't think ever a week goes by when I don't watch one or two international movies”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Unfortunately, I don't read fiction, but I'm a huge movie fan. Oh, really? And I find I particularly like watching international cinema. And I find that watching international cinema is a great way of learning about the social fabric of another country.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, like the concept of anti fragile was very strong, even though that book itself didn't do that well, but the concept of anti-fragile I thought was like a very strong concept that if you're able to sort of, you know, like that old sort of notion, which he sort of showed so well that if you're able to sort of if something can't break you, it makes you stronger. So I think that those are the kind of books which I like to read over time. But I'd say that the biographies in particular is my weakness.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everything was different. So I think that was a fascinating book to read. I mean, then I think Charles Moore's biography on Margaret Thatcher, Andrew Roberts' book on Napoleon, these are some of the biographies that I've really enjoyed reading in recent times. That in terms of investing, I think that I like books which tell me more about investing behavior. So I think that someone like Nicholas Taleb has written some good books on that.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For example, this year I read John Meacham's book on George Bush I, which is George H.W. Bush. I found that a very interesting book in terms of, it's a fascinating tale of how someone can win a war and lose an election and sort of, you know, to take us into the mind. And it's such a different era also that a total...”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I tend to read a lot of biographies because I really sort of find those fascinating, especially which take me back into a different period of history.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As I said, then I learned that the people that I initially worked with, including Barton and some of his colleagues, obviously had a big influence on that. But I also feel that some of the macro style of investing, like the people that we all grew up admiring were the likes of the George Sawyers, Julian Robertsons of the world. And I was fortunate to interact with some of them at a very early stage of my career. So I'd say that those type of people who, you know, the classic big hedge fund investors of the 1990s, such as these characters, I'd say were very influential in the way that I think that I've grown up.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What do you mean by that? Yeah, because I think that so many people, I mean, one of the big problems we have in our industry is people sort of, you know, like too wedded to their screens and too wedded to daily price movements and often chasing their tail. And often with very little ability to withstand pain in the short term and being too momentum driven, right? So I think that what one of my first people that I worked with really taught me was that how do you have a good temperament for investing? How can you take the long view and have the patience to sit through the long view? So I think that temperament for investing is very important.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so he really sort of showed me this combination of investing in writing could be such fun. So he's definitely someone I think that who was in like an inspiration for many people out here. But from an investment standpoint, I'd say that I was very fortunate that the person I first worked with back in Asia was somebody who showed me that you really need a very good temperament for investing. And I think that's something which we all tend to possibly underestimate, temperament for investing.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's something that makes it to the cover of a popular magazine. That trend tends to come to an end is what journalists speak about. But I've done work here to back that up. And what my work very briefly shows is that if a country makes it to the cover of Time magazine in a positive way, then two-thirds of the time that country does poorly in the next five years. On the other hand, if a country makes a cover of time magazine in a negative way, then two-thirds of that time that country does well in the next five years because it goes back to my original rule of the circle of life, that countries typically reform only when they have their back to the wall and countries get complacent once they are already booming and magazine editors feel emboldened to put a country on the cover in a positive way once a boom is apparent.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Hypewatch because, as I said, I began my career as a writer, and a term I often heard about was the curse of the cover story.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the last rule is maybe a bit amusing, but really important is the contrarian rule, which is that if a country begins to appear on the cover stories of a magazine too often in a positive way, that is usually not good for that country because it tells you that the trend is maturing and the leaders of that country getting too complacent.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Middle East or the coast of commodities. So we have seen that over time, countries which tend to focus more on manufacturing exports to much better than countries which export commodities. Then I speak about currency that your exchange rate needs to be very competitive to be able to grow, that if you have a very overvalued currency and you have like, that's not a good thing. Then I speak about inflation on how low inflation is the bedrock for financial stability. But we also need to sort of focus much more on asset price inflation as well, looking at just consumer price inflation is not enough. We need to broaden the scope. If you get housing booms financed by debt, that's a real problem. My favorite tool, as I said, is the kiss of debt because the academic work that I've done on it has the maximum backing and very powerful.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, so in terms of then I talk about geography Right, in terms of that sweet spot and trade routes, then I speak about factories first. Yeah, that typically countries which are strong in manufacturing and investment do much better than countries which are strong in commodities and consumption.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, if you have too many billionaires coming from finance, I don't think that's a good thing for a country. If a lot of the wealth is merely inherited, like tends to be the case in places like Korea and other places, that's also not good for a country. But the place where the United States looks a bit weak is that the number of billionaires as a share of the economy is very, very large out here. So you end up...”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The flip side, and this is where the United States is still okay, if you have lots of billionaires coming from innovative industries. Technology, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, those people are respected a lot.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or you have, if you have too many billionaires coming from industries perceived as being corrupt, which is real estate, mining, oil and gas. Or if you have too many billionaires who simply inherit their wealth rather than make it on their own, those are conditions which typically lead the population of a country to be against the process of wealth creation.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, in terms of income inequality, the factor, and we know that if a country becomes too unequal, that leads to problems for economic growth in that country. So the good and bad billionaires is a very live way of gauging whether inequality in a country has become too much of a factor and possibly goes against that country's cultural wealth creation. So you look at the number of good and bad billionaires. If you have too many billionaires in a country”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Then I speak about the good and bad billionaires, the fourth rule. And this is a new introduction for me because a decade ago, I would not have had this rule. Why have I introduced this rule? Because income inequality has become such a big factor across the world.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“About a great deal. The second rule is the circle of life that's how politics matters that countries which elect new leaders and typically have their back to the wall are the best sort of Conditions for economic reform to take place in those countries. My third rule has to do with the involvement of the state, which is that typically if you have a very large intrusive state that chokes economic growth. Problematic. Yeah. So like you need the state to be sort of efficient and right-sized.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's Yeah, so very competitive in terms of the exchange rate and their workforce. The labor costs are relatively low. So I think that these are all good factors for these countries.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of getting the same sort of metrics like central bank independence, of having very strict inflation targets, of not doing too much excessive government spending. Keeping the deficits under control. So this basic economic orthodoxy that these countries are following and not doing all the bad things also, which is that they've kept their currencies to be fairly competitive, not joined the euro fully. So they're sort of in that sweet spot, which is that they're not part of the euro currency area, but they're part of the EU area. So they benefit from the trade linkages. But don't get locked into having a currency that becomes uncompetitive and leads to all the problems that we saw in Southern Europe by adopting a common currency.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think that one is in terms of that, like the kind of economic policies they follow, which is that much more investment friendly, and because they're close to Europe on how to get integrated with Europe, so they have an aspiration to catch up with. Europe.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Romania is much further behind, but you know, Slovakia, so I think that these are the countries which have the best potential for making it to the next level. Why? Why?”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So I think that those are if you ask me the next batch, I would say it's possibly the Eastern European countries.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you can argue that something like Greece did it for a while, then fell back You can argue countries like Israel have done that, countries like Korea, Taiwan are on the border. Those last three.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, in terms of in today's era, it's much more difficult. But if you ask me, one question that a lot of people ask me, and it's somewhat related to yours, that which region do I think, which emerging region do I think? Could graduate to becoming a developed region. Very hard transition to, right? Because today they're about”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, because I think that if you again look back at history and you look at what deglobalization brings, when nations tend to trade less with each other, the potential for conflict does go up as nations turn more inward. So I do feel that now this is stuff which is very hard to model, but it's a risk worth keeping in mind that that's the trend.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that you see it in parts of Asia, parts of Middle East. Like you see, defense spending is not going up over the last few years.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it seems so, I mean, you know, that's what the Trump presidency is partly about. Now, again, we don't know the details of the Trump presidency. We don't know how exactly he's going to govern, but it seems that's the trend. And some countries are already acting as if that's the trend. Really? Yeah, because defense spending in many parts of the world is going up, if you look at it now, right, whether it's a South Asia.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Impossible, but at least keep in mind that the potential for conflict is going up across the world just now. Because the United States is in retreat. Which provided this big security umbrella for many countries, and defense spending is going up. So one of the big trends, I think, which we're seeing in the marketplace and something which I believe in is that defense spending is bound to go up. The peace dividend is over. Like we had this peace dividend where you had one country which was sort of benefiting or rather providing a benefit to many countries as the lone superpower. I think those days are done now.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's very difficult to model, but just to keep that in mind, which is the fact that, for example, people speak to me about that, what if something happens in the South China Sea with China learning much more aggressive or Japan? That's the kind of stuff which is extremely difficult to model, right? But you can keep impossible.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Economic growth due to democratization. That's what I think is going on the world is turning less democratic after a massive increase in Democracy in the 1980s, 1990s, and much of the last decade, and an increase in authoritarian figures across the world from Putin to Erdogan. On the rise.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that for much of recent history, we saw an increase in the number of democracies in the world. So we saw this in the 1980s, 1990s, that the number of democracies in the world were expanding. But now what we're seeing is that that is no longer the case. In fact, the number of authoritarian regimes is increasing in the world today with even some countries which were on the path through democracy like Russia and Turkey, etc., turning much more authoritarian now. So that's what I mean by democratization. And what does that mean for the global economy? What it means is much more volatility. Because what I find in our authoritarian regimes is that the policy becomes much more unpredictable. So policy is good. You can get very good economic growth rates, but if policy turns bad, there are no checks and balances in place. And you can get very bad outcomes as well. So much more volatility in global...”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Subpar No, I think that their analysis is not that valid anymore because now we are in the eighth year after the global financial crisis. And I think that the reason why the global economy is weak today has to do a lot with the fact that the demographics have changed, as I mentioned. So I don't think that what happened in 2008 in terms of debt is that relevant today, but what is relevant is that the levels of debt aren't going up that much anymore to turbocharge growth the way the growth was turbocharged between 1980 and 2008. So there's a subtle difference here.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly like eventually you had a bust also at the end of so I think it's very difficult now to get those kind of massive increases in global debt because that also was a one-off because global inflation was falling and global interest rates declined a lot in that period. And I think that those trends are bottoming out now. So I don't see debt levels going up across the world much in the next few years. And then we have the entire prospect, the fourth D I speak about, which is democratization.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think it makes it more stable over time, but also the fact that it sort of puts a downward pressure on economic growth, which is that between 1980 to 2008, we got a massive increase in global debt as a share of the economy.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So I'd say that, so I wouldn't get too hung up on valuations, but generally because of the massive asset price inflation we've seen in the world over the last few years led by the United States and the easy policies of the Fed, cheap today is really a hard thing to find in the world.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So I think that, and you know, from a country perspective, I find that if you get the growth rate, it's correct. You're able to sort of do well in those countries”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Problems Yeah, that's true, but I think that it's so, I agree, but I'm saying that cheapness cannot be the only criteria for investing. Cheapness is got to cheapness.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think that in terms of the fact that gets a bit more tricky because I think that clearly the US market is much pricier today. So even though the economic prospects look okay, because of the fact that you've had such a massive increase in asset prices here due to the Fed's easy money policies, that here assets look very pricey to me.”
2016-11-18 · Masters in Business · Interview With Ruchir Sharma: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source