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Russ Roberts

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2022-08-05
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2022-08-05
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  1. “For other people, yes. When you get him on your podcast. Would you encourage him to come online? He's going to come on yours before mine. But I really want to talk to him”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “And that's life. Life, a lot of the things that we try to figure out, am I going to like that, not like it? We try to imagine reasonably what it's going to be like, but really can't know what it's going to be like until we're in it. And so you want to be in a lot of things as long as they're not too high cost to get out of. Because if they're high costs, then the trade-offs are more serious.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Even though you can't always anticipate what experiences are going to be like, and that's why one of the reasons that cost-benefit analysis is not that helpful in trying to figure out what to do in these kind of situations, try lots of stuff. And if you're lucky, some of those things are going to be things you can change. So Belcheck, if he doesn't, the player doesn't work out, he cuts them. He doesn't assign them. I think every year for the last, I don't know, 17, 19, I don't know how many years it is. And I think he loves it. I'm feeling it's a little bit of a seductive thing for him. But he almost always finds a player who no one else wanted, no one thought was worth picking, and finds out that they can contribute. And he finds that out, and this is the punchline, through the experience of working with them.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Instead of picking winners, they pick an index fund. They take all the stocks because they say, I can't, it's crazy. It's hard to believe, but I think it's mostly true. You can't, on average, you can do pretty well, but you can't necessarily pick out in advance which you're going to succeed. You can think about this in venture capital. Of every 10 investments, one unicorn is extraordinary. Most of the investments are going to go broke. They're not going to make it. Literally, they're going to cover their costs ever. And a few other movies somewhat successful. And if you're lucky, you get a couple of home runs, a unicorn company worth a billion dollars. That'd be amazing, right? One out of 10. The crazy thing is you don't know who the witch won. It's a one out of 10. So that's bizarre. So I think life is something like that. And so what I argue in the book, and then we'll get to why I move to Israel, but what I argue in the book is that...”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Future NFL successful players. By the way, Bill Belich is the coach of the New England Patriots, a football team in the National Football League, which we should have mentioned. So Belichick each year gets to draft pick from the crop of college players a certain set of players. And I argue in the book, and this is the part I'm not sure it's true, but I think it's true, a lot of times he will trade away a draft choice to have more draft choices lower down later in the draft. And the reason I argue he does that, so this is all speculative, it's kind of fond, but I think it's a good lesson for life, is that he wants to increase the denominator. When he's thinking about the ratio of successful picks to total picks, he knows that it's not a big number. So the bigger he makes the denominator, he's going to get a few good players out of the whole thing. He can't predict in advance.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “And one of the things you learn from economics is tradeoffs. And tradeoffs are really obvious when you think about them, but many things we're talking about in this conversation, they're hard to remember to think about. So a lot of times we kind of ignore trade-offs that we go through our lives. And what I argue Bel Belichek understands Is that he's not that good at drafting”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “And it's not surprising that we don't know if it's true because Bill Belichick doesn't like to tell secrets. He keeps them to himself. I guess nobody tells secrets because if they did, they wouldn't be secrets anymore. But Bill Belchek has a lot of things that he keeps to himself. And maybe someday he'll write a book about what he understands about football, which will be interesting. But I think he understands something about life, whether it's intentional or not. He, by the way, was an economics major as an undergraduate lesbian.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “It's definitely never been asked. That's never been asked. It's fantastic. So I did something a little bit weird in the book. I don't know if it's, I literally don't know if it's true. I think I admit it, that I don't know if it's true.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “And it's a great thing, I think, to admit that I'm not grown up. I haven't figured it all out. Not mature fully. More mature maybe than I was before, but I'm not mature. It's hard. So a lot of what, to me, of a life well-lived is about growing up. And marriage is one way to grow up, not the only way. There are other ways to grow up. Religion, meditation, psychotherapy, marriage. They're all about self-awareness. They're all, if they're done well, they're all about recognizing that you're part of a much bigger picture than you feel like most of the time. And I think that's really helpful and incredibly satisfying when you sense it. It's great.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “It's like shalom, right? You're not whole, you're not grown up. One of the funniest things in life is you look at the people older than you and you think when I'm their age, I'll feel the way they do. And you get to that age and you don't You look at the seniors in high school when you're in sophomore. Wow, they're so confident and they seem so at ease. I can't wait till I'm a senior. Then you're a senior. It's like they were all faking it. Every one of them.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “We say it in a slightly different way I've come to believe as I've gotten older. A huge part of growing up, we like to joke hey, Tim, what are you going to do with your grow up? Like you still have room to grow. Well, I hope you do, right? We're not all it's.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “We do, most of us most And to figure out how to mesh your plans with your partner's plans, and not just what we're doing on Sunday night, because we can take turns and we'll do Italian tonight and next week we'll do Chinese. But how to make a life together is really hard and beautiful and deeply rewarding if it goes well. And when it doesn't go well, it's horrible, by the way. I don't want to romanticize it at all, right? It's horrible. Awful, stultifying, degrading. It's bad. So it's a high risk game. And to come back to your earlier question, for most of human history, it wasn't a choice. It was a destiny. It wasn't a decision. You got married. You had to. You felt that way anyway. It doesn't feel that way anymore. Whole new world.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “I feel that sometimes. I think there's a lot of truth to that. And living with another person as a commitment, not as a contract, very important difference. I talked about in the book. It's more of a covenant and less of a contract. It's really a powerful way to be alive. This is to enhance what I said earlier about what a real marriage is about. It's not about working at it. Oh, let's have a session where we talk about our issues. It's about remembering, comes back to what we said at the very beginning, this conversation, remembering things that are very hard to remember that you're in this together, this other person has a soul, a desire, a flavor, a preference. And that's hard because you have yours. And, you know what? I like getting what I want, don't you? Yeah.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “Part I like about you have to work at your marriage is that it is hard there are parts about marriage that are hard there's parts about having a good marriage that are difficult that are challenging there's a great line from Annie Lamotte her name for God Not me And most of us, naturally, see ourselves as God said of the universe, most important thing, easy. And I think one of the great advantages of marriage is to remind you”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “Size mostly negative for most people. I think certainly for most men. I don't know if women are different, but they seem to be. It's not fashionable to say that, but I think they are. But men, it's hard. Men struggle to stay in a long-term relationship. Not as appealing to either side. It's pretty obvious in the data. So what do you do? Tricky.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “Not the way I think of my marriage. I work at Crossword puzzles. I work at ditch digging. I work at brightening up my notes for my next podcast. But what you do have to do is you have to treat your partner as a partner as opposed to somebody who, you know, lives with you, who's plus a dapper's roommate. They're two different things. And I think in modern life we've taken away for a thousand reasons the responsibilities of marriage. And I think that's coming at a cost, right? And it's made it harder for people to get married if you look at the data. It's pretty obvious. Let's be scientific for a minute. People are marrying later or not at all. And it's changed. And does the appeal, this comes back to the Darwin point, the appeal of a long-term commitment from the...”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. “Actually, pays some attention to this thing that evidently has been around for a long time. It's not just about sexual attraction. It's about love and romantic attraction or whatever you want to call that partnership, symbiosis to make it really as unromantic as possible. Maybe even less romantic than economies of scale at Costco. But I think to come back to the nub. So, what should you look for? What should you expect? And is it worth it? Is it worth something you should strive for? I'll just say we can talk about this for the five hours, but the one thing I would add, I don't like it when people say you have to work at your marriage. You have to work at it.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. “He sees his bachelorhood life as an ideal, kind of like Darwin, actually. And yet he finds himself falling in love. And, you know, it's one of the most beautiful love songs ever written. When you think, how do you capture that feeling of... Real love, not just attraction. He says, I've grown accustomed to her face. What a magnificent, magnificent line, right? Her smiles, her frowns, her ups, her downs, their second nature to me now, like breathing out and breathing in, like that's an incredible portrait of domestic life, right? And so, my point being that.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. “Understand this a little both, right? Read Shakespeare, you read Jane Austen. Jane Austen's characters usually are striving to make an advantageous match, not a love match. But they also fall in love. So that's one of the reasons I think her books are so compelling. They don't just want to be pragmatic. But it's a very deep question of whether what you should look for, what you should expect a marriage. And I think Hollywood misleads us a little bit look across the room. And I've argued there are very few movies that capture love. They're movies that capture romantic attraction, sexual attraction. I'll give you an exception. My fair lady. Not a very PC or politically correct movie in modern times, but it's a fascinating portrait of how Henry Higgins falls in love with Eliza Doolittle despite himself, right? He doesn't want to fall in love.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. “That's a deep question, kind of a hard one. I think it's a great insight that Lot of marriages in the past were either arranged by the parents or had Ulterior motives. Even if it was just to get the crops in. We're joking about economies of scale, but economies of scale were not unimportant in most of human history. You had kids partly to help you slop the hogs. I mean, and milk the cows. Right? And to take care of you when you got old, these were very pragmatic, unromantic ideas. Having said that, any trip through Western literature.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. “And that whole idea of what you really want is such a strange idea because what could you really want that goes above and beyond the pluses and minuses? I mean, that's just irrational. And a lot of smart people have said, not exactly. And by the way, it doesn't mean, oh, therefore you should follow your gun. Follow your intuition. That can be very dangerous also. It costs you a lot of money. Lead you to marry the wrong person. You have to be thoughtful about this. It isn't the alternative. You science or just follow your gut. I don't think either one is the right way to think about these kind of decisions.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. “And when it's in the air, you'll know what you're rooting for. You're rooting for heads or tails. That's what you really want.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. “Said looking for a life partner. Not so fashionable, right? Most people aren't necessarily looking for a life partner. I'm not, by the way, many negatives about life partner. They're many positives about a life partner. It's complicated. I would ask you a question this way. What suffuses you? What are you overwhelmed by when you're with that person for decades? And it's not every day. And it's not every night, and it's not every vacation, right? But the ideal is that much of the time you're filled with something. The word would be love. You call it love, affection, whatever. But the reason I like your question is that part of my book is, looks at these decision makers where they say things like, well, I made the list of pluses and minuses and it came out wrong. So I added some pluses. Or the palm I mentioned.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. “See their partners as their soulmates through most of their day even, right? It's not just, oh, you know, I think of my wife when I go home and I see her and I'm glad to see her. It's that she, or in the case the other side, he, they fill my soul in day-to-day life. It gets back to what I was talking about earlier. It's not just, oh, they're fun to be with. It's that they create an overarching sense of identity of they're part of who I am. By the way, Darwin didn't think about that because he never experienced it. Not just he hadn't been in love. He never crafted a life with another person. That's what a real marriage is, by the way. It's not just that it's convenient that there's economies of scale. You can go to Costco more often if you have kids in a wife so you can get a lower unit price on the ketchup. That's not what it's about. What it's about is a journey. It's a journey that two people share.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. “I've heard of it too, but it's actually a very misleading word in the following sense. I think people who stay married for a long time have a wide array of emotional landscapes they live in. I think some of them”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. “But I give a short list, but pick somebody you respect whose company enjoy. You could talk to forever, can share your secrets with. You have some chemistry. That's great. That's so hard to find. Mary, them, ask them. They probably won't marry you, but at least ask them.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. “It's a set of complicated attributes that are pluses and minuses for all kinds of things. So the person you're with that you're seeing now, whoever's listed out there, you know, there's a certain level of attractiveness, there are a certain level of kindness, there's a certain level of intelligence, there's a certain level of many, many, many attributes. And then there's chemistry and sexual attraction. We've got all those things working. And so which is the best one? Oh, well, I need a formula to add up all those measurements so I can get a single number and then I'll just pick the one that gets the best score. And I'd argue that's the wrong way to think about life. It's the wrong way to think about how to pick your friends. It's the wrong way to think about how to find the best job. It's the wrong way to think about most things. And it's not just because you can't find the best one. It's not even well defined. And I think that's helpful. Again, doesn't make it easy to sell pick the one you're going to marry.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  28. “Show it to my wife because she thinks she married the right person. I don't want her to see it and depress her. But seriously, there's no best. And part of the theme of my book is that most of life is a matrix. By that I don't mean like the movie, the red or blue pill. What I mean is that”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  29. “To try to find the best person because for a lot of reasons, one of which is how do I stop at 108? Should I 208? I could do even better. 2008, 2008. Of course, many people date lots of different people and never settle down. And that's okay. Maybe they choose to, but some of them are just saying, I haven't found the right one yet. So what I argue in there is that Alain de Baton has a wonderful YouTube video I recommend on. I think the title is You're going to marry the wrong person. Fantastic.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. “Mathematically thirty seven and you rank them and you take the best one of the first 37 and you use them as a benchmark. And of course we kind of all did this, right? We got with a bunch of people and then you look back on the ones and you think, well, whoever I do marry's got to be better than the ones that said I turned down. And so what she should do if she wants the best one is that after that 37th, she should pick the first one she finds is better than the best of the first 37. You think, well, that's kind of cool. And in fact, the odds that she finds the best one is actually about 37%. Turns out not to be a coincidence. Put that to the side. Not so interesting. But that's pretty amazing. If I said to you, you've got to find the best person in this group of 108 people, what's the best strategy? That's the best strategy. But of course, when you start to think about it, it's not a good strategy.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. “Not the best situation. He's feeling a little bit inadequate, I suspect. Telemachus. And I show that there's actually kind of there's a mathematical formula you could use, a famous mathematical problem. It's really beautiful, elegant thing, of how she could maximize the odds of finding the best partner. And it's great. You go out with a few of them. And the presumption of the problem is that you can't, once you've said no to someone, you can't get it back. Just a little bit like life. There's some exceptions to that, but in general, once it doesn't work out, they move on, you move on. So you go out with the first, turns out about 37 of them.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. “So in the book, I talk about that choice and I kind of tongue in cheek talk about Penelope from the Odyssey, Ulysses' wife, who's waiting for his return from the Trojan War. I mean, it's such a great moment in literature. She's got 108 suitors living large in her house, trying to wear her down and get her to pick one of them. Because they don't think he's coming back. And either she's hoping he will or doesn't really want to remarry, but it's awkward. 108 guys in your house. Our son's there.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  33. “Because I have a decision to make. I have a decision to make, and I'm really anxious about it. And I tell them two things when I say, well, it's not that kind of book exactly. It's not going to an algorithm. I'm not going to tell you how to make the decision exactly. It's really going to help you think about how to make a decision, not with what the right decision is. Two different things. It's going to help you organize your thinking about it and realize that your normal thinking, which is this cost-benefit plus minus thing, might lead you astray.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. “QED. QED is what you put at the end of a mathematical proof, right? Since it was not a mathematical proof, this was the most unmathematical attempt at making a decision. And of course, a show. He's not the only one. Many great, rational, scientific, analytical people, even special decision-making have troublemaking decisions because these kind of decisions at least are not easily done with a rational framework. And so I think that's liberating. It tells you those of you listening who are going through these life decisions. And I'll tell you, Tim, book comes out on August 9th. Already have people write me and say, Can you get me a copy now? I'll pay for it.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  35. “Darwin makes us list. And if you write it down, as I do, I organize it a little bit differently than he wrote it down. You look at the pluses of getting married and the negatives of getting married. The negatives are bigger, more numerous. So what does he do? Gets married. He says, it's a journal entry. He comes back to it and he writes, he has this incredible stream of consciousness paragraph where he says, oh my gosh, maybe all by myself, I'm going to become this weird guy in a dingy apartment. And Mary, Mary, Mary, QED. He says. QED meaning what was to be. Proven has been proven, demonstrated. Quotas demonstratum. And this is bizarre. First of all, it's bizarre. That's a little scientist, right? Because it's not anything close to it.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  36. “Is that he is going to be one of the greatest scientists of all time, and that's a lot to give up for what he actually calls the benefits, my favorite being female chit-chat and then better than a dog anyway, which is really not”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  37. “And what I noticed, which I'd say in the list a number of times when I was in the past. But what I noticed for the first time when I was writing this book is that he has no idea what marriage is like, which he doesn't have enough data, which is reasonable when you think about it because he's never been married. He has some married friends, presumably. He watches them after dinner talking or before dinner or during dinner. But that's it. He has no access to the inner life of marriage or the inner life of a parent, which is also worried about whether he's going to have kids. And if you look at his list, it's overwhelmingly that marriage and children are a horrible idea. He talks about how he's going to have to maybe leave London because she won't like London. He talks about how his kids might get sick. And then it would bother him and depress him. He talks about how expensive they might be. He talks about having to visit her relatives. And of course, in the back of his mind reasonably.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  38. “Journal entry in England, you can go to London and I don't know if you can see it or not, but it's reproduced online all over the place. Many people have noticed this great moment of scientific inquiry in the part of Darwin. Is it a good idea to get married? So he makes this list.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  39. “He's 29 years old. He's like, you know, maybe I should get married. He's been out on the Beagle. He's really on a great career trajectory. And he's on the path to be arguably, if not the greatest, maybe one of the two or three greatest scientists of all time. And he thinks, you know, maybe I'm missing something. So he makes a pro con plus minus cost benefit list of marriage. It's a really embarrassing list. It's so bad.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  40. “What I tried to do in the book is to remind you that you can't use an app for that. There isn't one. And how to think about those choices in life of where to go, how to spend your days, whether you should marry, whether you should have kids, and so on”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  41. “Somebody's batting average or the capital of an obscure. Or something much more interesting. Like, where should I have dinner tonight? Or what movie am I going to like? Or what book would I like if I liked this book? That's a fantastic improvement in the quality of life, right? In the old days, you go to the little bookstore, they have 17 books, this old crotchety guy behind the counter would say, hey, you like Hemingway? Oh, you might like Fitzgerald. And that was nice. And those people were often fabulous repositories of wisdom and suggestions. But Amazon is better. Amazon is a lot better. And the temptation is to take that improvement of day-to-day life into the rest of our life. And I think most of us realize you can, but it's really an unpleasant discovery because if I can use ways to get from A to B,”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  42. “You're really kind, Tim. We're going to have to dial it back about 40 years. I joke in the book that when I was in graduate school at the University of Chicago. There's a literally carved in stone, a corrupted, more or less right, from Lord Kelvin that says if it cannot be measured, your knowledge is meager and unsatisfactory. That's why I was raised intellectually at graduate school. We went out and did empirical work, meaning we looked at the world, we had a theory, we tested it, we tested it with data, with real world evidence, and then we decided whether the theory was right or not. And I was very convinced when I was younger that those models of economic behavior and non-economic behavior, but using the tools of economics were very powerful. I still think economics is pretty powerful, but I don't think I ever thought that necessarily those kind of models were good for making personal decisions. I think what's been fascinating about the last 20 years of the internet and the smartphone is that the answers are always here, right? Whether it's”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  43. “They're not so helpful in this framework. And so I thought I wrote the book to help people think about how to think about that.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  44. “Not like the necessarily the obvious outcome. And so what I suggested to my friend and the reason I wrote the book is that I think there's more to life than fun, obviously. And the sources that make our life deeply meaningful and purposeful are not just the day-to-day things. There are overarching senses of who we are and how we see ourselves and the meaning and purpose we have in life that are ultimately more important in these kinds of decisions. And these kinds of decisions which are whether to get married, whether to have kids, how many kids they have, whether to move to Israel, whether to take a new job, whether to study something crazy at college, those decisions are not amenable to data. So this brings us back to Hayek, in my view. They're not amenable to data. So the standard algorithms and evidence that we use to be, quote, rational.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  45. “So, why do people have kids? Is it irrational? And I think most of us understand that, at least somewhere in the back of our mind, that we have children not because it's more fun or not because the average day with children would be better than the average day without, or that there'll be more good days than bad days. And I would add this is true of marriage even. It's not just having a child, parenting a child. Tie yourself to a spouse, right? That's a tough question. Most people, if you look at it from the outside, You know, I don't know about you, but I look at other married couples. They don't look that happy. Some do, but they don't”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  46. “I joke in the book, oh, hey, get to get a minivan. That's exciting. So, why do people do it? And if you look at it narrowly as a cost-benefit decision, meaning more fun, most of them would say it's not more fun. In fact, I think most parents would say it's not necessarily more fun. It wouldn't, it's not like everyday with kids is a day at the beach. And even the days at the beach, often they're cranky and crying and they need something.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  47. “Look at my life now without kids, and I look at my life with kids, and which is going to be better. And I put better in quotes. And the real question is, what does that mean? And one way to think about it, which is very reasonable, is more fun, right? Having kids, we all know what the costs are. You know, there's diapers to be changed and there's errands to take them on and school to drive them to and little league games to watch or whatever it is. Music lessons. Pretty helpless. Early on, only for the first 18 years or so. So there are a lot of responsibility. And I think if you're looking from the outside at having children, it looks like not the best deal.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  48. “I start the book off with a story of a friend of mine who's trying to decide whether to have he and his wife are trying to decide whether to have a kid. And he tells me about it. He says, Well, we made a list of the costs and benefits and we still couldn't make a decision. And I thought, well, that's interesting. Through most of human history, To make the list of cost benefits to decide whether to have children, they just had them either because they couldn't stop them or they thought it was a good idea and they didn't spend a lot of time thinking about whether it was a good idea or not. And the implication of a cost-benefit analysis is that”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  49. “So if you were, we all understand the traffic doesn't work that way. It's not designed by anyone, but there are many things in life where you think, okay, I got to blame someone. Who is it? Who did this? And the answer is we did sometimes. And that's a deep insight of hayek also.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  50. “We talked about the pretense of knowledge, but the other key part of it is understanding that the world often emerges from the bottom up and not just from the top down, and that many things that are orderly that we see around us are not designed by anyone, but rather emerge from the individual choices we make. Simple example would be we go to a restaurant and it's really noisy and I can't hear you. You're sitting next to me and I'm thinking, why is it so loud in here? Well, let's just turn down the body. Where's that switch? Oh, there. No, there is no switch. If somebody stands up, hey, everybody, it's too loud in here. Let's all talk quietly and we'll be fine. But what happens is we all kind of start ratcheting it up. And similarly with traffic. Like who signed out the memo that says between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m. in the morning go really slow. That's not my intention, not your intention next to me in the car one lane over. And yet here we are is if we've been commanded from the time.”

    2022-08-05 · The Tim Ferriss Show · #613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT