YouSaid · the spoken record

Sander Gerber

lines on the record: 66
first: 2025-05-02
most recent: 2025-05-02
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Everyone seems to believe one way and you think, how could I be right? Because everyone believes one way because this is what they studied in school and the authorities say it's that one way. And I think that as you Go through life and you age, you realize that the ivory tower isn't always correct. In fact, a lot of times the ivory tower doesn't have the real life experience. And so they're flat out wrong.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that everything you learn in business school or economics, you can just throw out the window. Economics is not a science. People try to portray economics as a science, and it simply is not. And so all the notions that we brought up regarding money supply, Milton Friedman would be turning over in his grave, even those principles might have some grounding, it's not scientific. You know, this is not a natural science, it's a behavioral science, and it's based upon how people interact with each other. And I think that that appreciation leads to the notion that Oftentimes the academy or the experts try to proffer things that everyone”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's across all certainly service occupations is you got to be able to beat the machines. And to do that, you need to be independent thinker. You need to go against the grain, question the experts. You need to be able to do that. You need to work with other people to learn from them. Expand your horizons, to expand the mosaic that you can bring to your independent thinking. And you got to be able to respect your colleague. So I think that those three things are real guideposts for people.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I read the melting point by Frank McKenzie recently. He was the head of CENCOM. And he talked about what it was like to lead CentCom, and he also measured in English, and he thought that his English background to be a commanding general was very helpful because it helped him to articulate better and to form consensus among his colleagues.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Book that I really enjoyed, which was long, was Walter Isaacson's book on Elon Musk, which I read before the election. And it made a big impact on me because I believe in questioning the experts, but must take it to a different level. He's questioning metallurgical properties that were well grounded in science and engineering, and he's saying, why does that have to be? And oftentimes he was right that the established consensus regarding properties of metals was wrong.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who really helped me get into shape And he was on my case every day. The diet, the working out, we were workout partners. And I was 35, 40 pounds heavier. And he got me to recognize they needed to get in shape. I thought I was in shape, but I wasn't in shape. I think a lot of people think they're doing okay when they could do a lot better. Taught me I could do a lot better, and I think it's affected me overall my mental acuity, my mood, my stamina. I really give them a lot of credit.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which is, I saw in the New York Times, it was this spy thriller series on the conflict between Poland and Belarus. And I wanted to understand the dynamic between it. So I thought I'd get a little entertainment and understand something I couldn't pick up here. And it's a little slapstick, but I think it's worth it.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, at Imperial College London, there's further work being done on the Gerber statistic and incorporating it. The idea of thresholding and ways to do it to, for instance, if you want to understand the significance of a stock price movement, maybe you should exclude days where there's very low volume and only include days when there's high volume. There's a variety of ways to incorporate it.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so. I mean, I think that the humans always have to be on top of the machines. Machines have a lot of latitude both to produce themselves as well as to target. You know, the markets are different because the markets follow a behavioral dynamic. The valuation of risk versus reward is something that I think a machine cannot do in the same way that a human can.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I believe that certainly at this point in time, the human capacity to ingest a mosaic of information and to make the right decision is superior. If you take a chessboard, The machine can beat the master. But if you put an extra bishop on the board, Machine can't deal with And I think that's the paradigm, and life does not mimic a chessboard. Life mimics the chessboard with extra pieces being put on randomly. And it's that randomness that I don't think the machines will be superior than human judgment. Now it might appear at times that the machine can beat the human, but I think ultimately the human judgment is superior. And so our business is based on human judgment.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We are trying to beat the machines. We do that, as I said, through understanding uncertainty, events, catalysts, and change. And I think ultimately human judgment is superior in the machines. I hope we won't go into HAL 2000 type situation that human judgment will always be superior. You wouldn't want to have a machine Be the President of the United States, how could a machine possibly make those decisions? So obviously human judgment will always be there. And I don't think that we're at a terminator type situation, but there are certain experts that say that ultimately that's where we'll go. I mean, I do know that in the military... The idea of robots creating robots is a real idea. And it very might well change battlefield dynamics.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's just plain laziness. The AI is good for the junior person. And I think that has implications for the workforce. What is the workforce going to look like? Given that maybe we don't need the same phalanx of junior accountants, junior lawyers, junior bankers.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Also, I mean, I've used it for things my lawyers probably will hate me, but sometimes when I've had a discussion with the lawyers on how to express something in a document, I'll ask AI the question. It'll give me a range of possibilities and enables me then to be more on a level playing field with my lawyers who have had a lot more experience than I have, but it has enabled me to bring”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was thinking of Wizard of Oz also while you were saying that, but I don't think there's a guy behind the curtain that's giving the answers. That's why I think that it helps with the junior analysts that you have to check anyway. And it certainly speeds up the research process in ways that were not possible before for sure. And it's only going to get better, and it makes mistakes, but the junior analyst makes mistakes.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so. Yeah, because the ability for natural language processing goes far beyond what I thought was possible. I studied linguistics a bit in college and the whole idea of how we Form language is a fascinating subject, and now the computer is able to be cogent in their responses. We've kind of approaching hard AI in a way that I did not think was possible and it's only going to get better.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But also understanding the macro environment, are things growing? And we have so much uncertainty now going on, not just because of work from home with Zoom, but also the longer-term implications of AI and what's that going to mean for the workforce and even cities like New York City. It's possible that we're not going to need the same number of junior lawyers, junior accountants, junior bankers.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Those are big questions, and I'm from Ann Arbor, Michigan, and I saw how in Detroit, Detroit. Was going to be called the Museum to the Desolate City because downtown Detroit went empty when they built the Renaissance Center. Everyone moved to the Renaissance Center and left these empty, huge buildings in Detroit. And you see aspects of that now where the A buildings, the new buildings are attracting very high rents and buildings in other areas are going empty. So, to understand what's going on, you really have to understand the asset. And so that's why it's important to have teams from different disciplines, being able to understand the asset, obviously looking through the rent roles and understanding the weighted average lease.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's still early in that. I think it's a golden age for real estate credit. The banks are not able to, they don't have the capital now to lend. And so it's open season.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that gives us license to deploy the money in ways that are appropriate. And so we began staffing up in those areas. And now in real estate, for instance, we have teams that work in real estate equity in CMBS, distress CMBS, and direct provision of real estate credit. As part of the core value of Hudson Bay, these teams work together, which give us a better understanding. It's a great advantage to have equity teams working with credit teams, particularly all real estate's local. It gives us a much better understanding of the asset that we're looking at.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Precisely. The leverage they're using. So I think that the whole fractional banking system notion is challenged, particularly in the idea of the ease of information transparency. Among depositors, coupled with the necessity for government guarantee and moral hazard. So private credit, firms like ours, people invest in Hudson Bay and they know it's not a bank account.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What's the implication of the banking system under stress? Well, that means that they can't extend loans in the same way, corporate as well as real estate. So we started staffing up in those areas to take advantage. And now I'm convinced that there's now going to be a structural shift in credit provision in the U.S. economy, that the banks are no longer going to be the mainstay for credit. And that's because the government has effectively guaranteed our banking system. Which creates moral hazard. We have on the order of 4,300 banks in the United States. It's a lot, especially when you compare it to Canada that's got the big. And when you deposit money in the bank, that bank is lending it out long.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, we saw beginning with the higher transitory higher rates, which we thought was nonsense. We saw that rates Going to be higher for longer. And we had believed that the market had been anchored in this idea of ultra low rates, which was really a manipulation of the monetary system. So we started thinking about what the implications of that and came to the notion that the banking system would be under stress.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because if you don't include every single data point, then in the matrix math you have a divide by zero issue. So they're forced in all these correlation statistics, these regression analyses, to include every single data point. With the Gerber statistic, we are able to create thresholds where we ignore data. Below a certain degree of movement. And so that enables us to focus on meaning, everyone wants meaningful relationships, right? Of course. This is how we're able to focus on meaningful relationships within the market.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Again, people are trying to assess risk based upon some kind of parametric distribution with standard deviation movements. And I think that's just nonsense. The markets don't work like that. Our system enables us to weather all market environments through the deal code system by ignoring those parametric. The Gerber statistic, which is the basis for the work with Harry, is a rank order statistic because it recognizes the failures of parametric normal distributions. And what we do is we set a threshold. Because a lot of data is noise in the markets. If the SP moves by 10 basis points, it doesn't communicate to you how the S&P affects other things. Yet in all these statistical models, they're including every single data point.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Losing the esprit decor. We want people to want to work at Hudson Bay. If they don't want to work at Hudson Bay, they should go elsewhere. But to force people, I think for high performers, I don't think that's the way to engender the right environment.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Legit, I hate going to the office and seeing people not there. I think that people should work together. On the other hand, you can't force these things. You can't force independent thinking. You can't force collaboration. You can have an environment that engenders it. And so we try to have an environment that engenders it. So it's my opinion that people who come to the office are going to succeed more than people who don't. Now I understand that the commute is a hassle and sometimes people want to take the day off. And so our standard is two days in the office. Many teams have a third day, but a lot of people, usually people are in our office three to five days a week, but we don't force it. Once you force people to be in the office, I think you're...”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Rapacious greed. It almost destroyed them. It was inauthentic. And when people try to describe culture, they can't. And so what I wanted to do was to describe an environment. What is the environment that you want to work within? And when you speak to people in other firms, what's your corporate culture, what's your value statements? Usually these things go on and on and on. No one can really remember all the value statement. If you can't remember your value statement, it has no value.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, because no one can really describe corporate culture. What you can describe is an environment. What is the environment that people work within? And I kind of learned this at Bain& Company because Bain was described as this fun-loving place. When I was there, they fired half of my class, not me, they fired all the incoming MBAs. And it was the avarice of Bill Bain that nearly collapsed the firm. We're talking back in 1989.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Data driven is not a culture. Data-driven is a process, but I'm talking about what's the human aspect of it? What's the human culture?”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, actually, I mean, that paper was related to the human aspect, not the market. So Peter Drucker came up with this idea that culture eats strategy for breakfast. Corporate culture is actually more important than corporate strategy for the success of a firm. I think there's a lot to that, that the way people work together in an organization, but I've always thought that this corporate culture thing is nonsense. If you have people try to describe their corporature, they cannot articulate it. Like, what's the corporate culture here at Bloomberg? Fun line. Data”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. That's right. And at Hudson Bay, we seek to produce the alpha. So it's true that the market is moving the stock, but we try to pick stock to outperform the market or pick shorts that will go down more than the market. So we seek to focus on the alpha provision.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And if something's always cheap, you just adjust the model. So there's a validity to that, but that's different than using the same model for risk management. Risk management, again, is about avoiding unexpected loss.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The values of the options into alignment in accordance with the model because everyone's using the same model. And so the same thing is true in the broader market because everyone's using basically the same factor models. It pushes things in alignment, which works in normal market environments, but when things... Have a dislocation, it no longer works, which is why people say, Oh, our risk model broke down or whatever, because these aren't really risk models. Now, it's one thing to use a model to trade. Because the model's telling you something is so expensive or cheap. Relative to his history.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think those are, yeah. Huh, that's really true. Now, it's true that momentum value, these other things are relevant today because everyone else has glommed onto it because we have so many statistical process-driven strategies that try to trade momentum, buy cheap, sell expensive. It pushes everything in line. And this is what I found on the floor using models to trade options that the models would push”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The whole idea of factors is kind of like A little nonsense. It's like beta, you know, like market we think of as beta. It's now been called a factor.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you lever a portfolio up 10 times, all of a sudden that's 6% looks like it's 60%. But it's all complete nonsense. It's numerical mumble jumble as part of the whole Wall Street Pizzazz that is not based on reality, but it sells.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which means that giving credit to five, which that's our anaxioma tells you 85% of the 40% can be explained by five factors, which means the other 20 factors explain the 15% of 40%. In other words, 6% of a stock price movement can be explained by 21 factors.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There were three factors and then became five factors. Precisely, and then grow and grow. If you speak to the research departments of bara axioma, they'll tell you that 34 to 40 percent Of a stock price movement can be explained by factors.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He said that is in accordance with his system. But in any way, we've written several papers together on the Gerber statistic within modern portfolio theory and have demonstrated that you get better performance with less risk by replacing historical covariance with the Gerber statistic. And Harry and I actually, we only had really one disagreement. And the one disagreement was on factors. There's all these factor methodologies. And Harry believed that only one factor matters for portfolios. And I think two factors matter. And so that's her, but the other 23 factors we both agree are complete nonsense.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That sets forth modern portfolio theory, he said that correlation should be determined by the judgment of practical men. In other words, the stock analyst should think what will be the relationship going forward, not to mind the past, but be forward-looking. But in the 1960s, as computing power increased, people said, oh, we can mine the statistic, this row statistic correlation, and then we can plug it into the model as correlation. He meant correlation in a semantic sense, not in a mathematical sense in terms of using in his model. So he actually said that the deal code system uses his system, the modern portfolio theory system. He said that there's three legs to his system. And so because we use limited loss, because we seek to diversification through hedging on the own, because we seek to win more than we lose in each investment idea.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we now have, I think we just got our sixth patent on our process for diversification. So I got to see Harry in San Diego. Lovely guy, he welcomed me, and were walking. He liked to walk along the beach. And I said, Harry, you know, I don't think that correlation is predictive. And Harry said, you're right. I said, no, no, Harry. Which he won the Nobel Prize in Modern Portfolio Theory. I said, Harry, I don't think that historical correlation has relevance to the future. And he said, you're right. And it turns out that in his 1952 paper,”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, because of my distrust of models based upon my experience on the floor, in particular the guts of the models, I never believed in the correlation statistic that correlation is predictive. And this was, I thought, one of the underpinnings of modern portfolio theory, that you look at the expected return of this stock, the expected variance of the stock, and the covariance or correlation between the different components of a portfolio. And at the time, we used the deal code system, and on Wall Street, the banks were telling me this is nonsense. Don't even talk about it with investors. And then in 2008, when everyone lost money, we made money. I realized we were doing something different. And then I had the idea because, of course, I'd studied about Harry in modern portfolio theory, everyone in finance has. He won the Nobel Prize. I decided, you know what? I'm going to go out to see him, to see what he thinks about the Gerber statistic. And at the time, it wasn't called the Gerber Statistic, but a friend of mine said, gee, you really should file a patent on this before you see Harry. And so I did. And I had to name it something. So I called it the...”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of Precisely, and that's why we don't use the standard risk management models. I actually created a statistic, the Gerber statistic, that helps to understand diversification between our deal codes, between our investment positions. A lot of our competitors are tied to factor-based modeling, which ultimately underneath it. Is reliant on regression analysis, regressions are straight line fits through the Normalized sets of data, and human relationships don't follow straight lines, and certainly market relationships don't follow straight lines. So, using that as the underpinning of a risk management system is just incorrect. And so we've created a whole different structure that, as I said, we've used since 1998. And I think that's given us the ability to weather storms and profit from in ways that our competitors can't.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that especially in today's world, you have to understand what your edge is versus the machines. And a machine can calculate risk based on historical precedent. But a machine cannot calculate risk based upon some kind of uncertainty due to some kind of event catalyst or change that's coming up because it's new. So the machine doesn't have the ability to calibrate for something that's new. And so generally across all our strategies, that's what we're focused on is we're focused on event catalyst change. How can we profit off of that in a way that machines cannot?”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As I mentioned, I wanted to be able to make money in all market environments, so you need a tool set to do that. So our strategies are equity long short, converts, credit, event merger, volatility trading.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Within the book. And that enables us to focus in on how is that trade hedged? What's the riskiness? How much could that trade lose in a reasonable worst case scenario? And it gives us a batting average so we can understand is a portfolio manager winning more ideas than they lose. So to be persistently profitable, I think it's not just about winning more dollars than you lose. It's about winning more ideas than you lose.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, so at the time, well, I left the floor beginning in 95 and started deploying just the money I'd earned on the floor in an off-floor trading account And I would develop a strategy and hire someone else to run it and develop another strategy and hire someone else to run it. And as I was having other people manage basically my trading account, I realized I had to scale my risk profile that I developed on the floor over multiple risk takers. I needed to do it in a manner that would produce persistent profitability. So at the time, we were trading a lot of risk arbitrage deals. So we called it a deal code. And a deal code is just a numerical moniker that we put on each trading idea.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Risk is not about not losing money. Risk management is not about not losing money. Risk management is about Unexpectedly losing money. In other words, when you're evaluating a situation, you should know what is your reason worst case downside. Now, there's always the black swan that maybe you can't figure on, but you should. But risk management is always about understanding what could go wrong and quantifying what could go wrong.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're physically tethered to that trading post. Exactly. And there are even rules that you had to do most of your trading in that geography, so you couldn't move around a lot. And what it taught me is that like a trading post, a strategy goes in and out of favor. And if you want to be able to make money in all markets all the time, you have to develop a toolkit that can go beyond one particular strategy. So you need to have multiple strategies to develop persistent profitability. The other thing that I learned was that you can make the right decisions and still lose money. I had plenty of times where Looking back, it was the right decision, but the markets thought differently. And so you always have to be worried about what can go wrong.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I really was grounded by that three and a half years of watching every tick on the stock, you know, and your geographically limited on the floor. You can only trade at the post that you're standing by.”
2025-05-02 · Masters in Business · Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source