YouSaid · the spoken record

Savita Subramanian

lines on the record: 97
first: 2024-05-16
most recent: 2024-05-16
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“The next day. So your probability of making money by buying and selling the SP over a one day period is about a coin flip, a little bit better than a coin flip. But if you have a buy and hold over a 10-year period, your probability of losing money is It's like less than five percent So that's the idea of just extending your holding period, set it, and forget it. I think those are some of the tricks that I try to impress upon individual investors is, you know, the day that you want to sell because the market just went down a lot is probably the worst day to sell because the best days for the S&P typically follow the worst day.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can overcome it. There's time and volatility gets easier with time. I think the other kind of metric that I wish I'd known about is, and this is specific to the S&P 500, but the interesting thing is if you own the S&P for a day, you have about a 50-50 chance of making money or losing money.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, I wish I'd started investing earlier. I was always too risk averse. And then once I started to get some corones, I was, you know, 10 years into my career. I wish I just socked away more money and, you know, kind of the riskiest, most volatile asset classes because that's where when you're young, you can really take a punt.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes. I mean, life is struggle. That's also a Nietzschean quote. Right, right. But I think the idea of just always kind of checking yourself and seeing whether you're assuming things that aren't necessarily true.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no, no. I've not personally experienced that too many times in my life, but I've heard about it many times. And I think that's just bad practice. When it comes to finance and investing, I think the idea Of being flexible in thought, always checking your own biases. I mean, this is where the philosophy comes in. So Friedrich Nietzsche has this theory of constantly overcoming. And that's the idea that you should always critically examine your assumptions and make sure that you're not making a mistake. Life is strong.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Then it's just like insecure people that need to prove themselves. And what I found is, you know, the way you treat people that are working for you says a lot about you. And the problem is if you're mean to the people that work for you, someday they might become your boss. So I think that's another piece of advice I would give.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That, you know, they stop listening, they're just like, you know, trying to seem smart. And I think that's your number one enemy in what.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, the first piece of advice isn't specific to finance, but it's just, you know, don't be a jerk. Okay. I think there are so many people out there who are trying to prove that they know more than the next guy.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That title out of that was really good. I kind of forgot it. The nice thing about getting older is that you can reread and it's fresh like the first time you read it. Right.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And that's what Peter Atia has really focused on. So I thought that was an interesting one. But yeah, there's so many things to read. I don't read a lot of nonfiction, especially I don't.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm also reading this book by Peter Atia on how to live. Well, not necessarily long, but how to remain healthy and thriving. I mean, I find that health is becoming a bigger part of my concern set these days as I get older. I mean, I turned 50 a year ago and I'm starting to think about I want to see my grandkids. So how do I keep this thing going and be happy and healthy?”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, but some of them Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. My favorite book of all time is a book called Confederacy of Dunces. Sure.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, right now I'm actually reading. Well, I'm rereading an Agatha Christie novel that I love. Which one? The Murder on the Orient Exposition. Oh, sure. I know. I'm obsessed with Agatha Christopher.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My mom was a coder. Yep, she came here from India when she was just twenty years old. She had an arranged marriage. They're now divorced. One of the worst arranged marriages of all time. But she was, you know, she had a lot of guts. She wore a sorry to work every day, but somehow ascended the corporate ladder at Digital Equipment Corporation and became a manager, even though people were like, you need to stop wearing the sari she kept wearing it. She was true to herself. So I kind of look at her as a role model of how to just get stuff done, you know, fade the haters and, you know, do something good for the world, create some value.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To have someone say something that, like, I think Oh, Rich, definitely just one of the key people that really made me who I am today. I mean, I have to say my mother is like really who I am printed on.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you get sucked into it and you're rooting for the character. Like, you want them to succeed. Exactly. I don't That you hate. I know. I know who needs that. Who needs that? We work on Wall Street. You don't need to go home to people that are church. That's right.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With the clock ticking down the whole time, it was like, but I binge watched that because you can't not watch an entire season if your calendar allows. Once you get...”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know. He just wandered into the room while I was watching it, and then he sat down, and then all of a sudden he was engrossed and were watching this series together about the Queen of England. It was really fascinating.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, that was fun. Just My 12 year old son watched that with really, which was kind of cool because I didn't realize he was.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My brain is open. It takes too much time. Right? It's like, wait, I need a notepad. Yes, I think I fell asleep like three times trying to watch the first episode.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Season and kind of tapped out afterwards. I know. No, I mean, I hate to say this, but I really feel like you need to give it another season.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I suppose that's what they call it. I mean, it seemed pretty interesting. It was kind of fun if you live in New York to watch that. I rewatched Breaking Bad because that's just.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, good. Yeah, my compass is completely destroyed. But yeah, there's a lot of raw material to roast me on. I mean, it would be, well, I hope I get a...”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That I could be roasted on. I always walk the wrong direction out of a door. I always go the opposite direction of where I'm supposed to be going.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the sad thing is that all the security guards. But don't you have to swipe in? Well, they give me a temporary ID and then I go upstairs. But yeah, there are a lot of things that...”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Someone saying about you. I don't, well, that's a good question. I think I would be happy if. Somebody said about me that I was, I helped them in their career. I mean, I think that's what we're all here for. But I think the terrible things that people could say about me were that I, you know, chronically forget my ID like four out of five days a week. I don't bring my ID to the office and I have to get the security guard to look me up in the system.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Tell us a little bit about your richest exit roast. Oh, goodness. It was terrible because I went first and I said 10 really mean things about rich. And then everybody that did the speech after me said really nice things about him. But that's what a roast is supposed to be. I was like, this is not a good roast. You guys need to get into the trenches and say some mean things. But I was the really mean one and everybody else was really nice.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I know. Sorts of things are going to happen. It's all these things, right? And none of them happen. All the A recession in 22, a recession in 23. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think that where we are today is actually a reasonably healthy point for equities. But the areas that I worry about are that bottomless pit of, you know, unmarked assets that have doubled or quadrupled in size, in asset allocation. I mean, think about the average teacher or firefighter's pension plan. It's 30% illiquid today versus 5% back in the 2000s. So, you know, stuff has changed and that's where I worry, but I don't worry as much about big cap companies that everybody is tracking and watching and monitoring.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To say Fiscal, it's inflationary, it's protectionist. I mean, everything going on right now, deglobalization and fiscal stimulus, these are inflationary trends. So I think that the idea that inflation and rates are going to remain low is, you know, it's problematic. And, you know, I mean, even this year, look what happened. The Fed was supposed to cut like, what was it, four times? Well, we were also supposed to.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And here's the really worrisome thing. So if you think about just private equity, the amount of capital raised since two thousand seventeen is basically, it doubled the size of the private equity market. Think about how we were geared in 2017, 2018, 1920. We weren't thinking about 5% interest rates. It was lower for longer this. Inflation's going to stay low. Disinflationary pressures, disruption, blah, blah, blah. That was the mantra during that entire stretch of time where a ton of money was raised in these long duration growth themes that were priced for an environment of zero rates forever.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. I mean, I think this is an area that could be ripe for regulation. I just don't know how the regulators will figure out how to regulate it. And I'm sure that that will create this sort of whack-a-mole type of environment. Well, if you remember.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know Right, right. I mean, I think this debt sitting on government balance sheets is something to worry about. I mean, I think the other aspect to worry about is not publicly traded equities, which are marked to market on every change and every macro number. Tick by tick. Tick by tick on a millisecond basis. But if you look at private credit, private equity, commercial real estate, we already know it's problematic. Residential real estate, we haven't seen a lot of turnover in residential real estate because nobody wants to walk away from more hatches. So I think those are the areas where we should be more worried. But if you're looking at a stock, it's pricing in the current environment of rates, inflation, like kind of everything that's going on right now is in a publicly traded equity vehicle.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then you had certain pockets of the economy become oversubscribed, and other parts of the economy become undersubscribed. And there's been that shakeout ever since. So I still think we're in this environment where goods versus services, we're working out that demand. We've seen inventory, tightness, and inventory laxity. So we've seen a lot of like kind of cross currents that would problematize just calling this a normal Fed hiking cycle. I do think that the other factor that has shifted demonstrably and deserves more airtime is the idea that if you look at the areas of risk today across the spectrum, corporates and consumers were just given a bunch of money from the Fed and the government. The areas of risk and indebtedness are sitting in the government balance sheet, not necessarily on corporate or Consumer balance sheets.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, so this is one area where I'm going to say this time it is different. I'm going to say those dreaded words because I think that, you know, where we are today is not necessarily as clear cut in terms of late cycle, early cycle, you know, recession, no recession. I think we've had areas of strength and areas of weakness over the last few years. I mean, we had a global pandemic, a complete shutdown of global economic activity.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. I mean, that doesn't make any sense. We were forecasting something that didn't make any sense. You know, every economist out there was forecasting negative real rates. That just felt like something had gone wrong. Nobody was expecting two wars to break out. Nobody was expecting the Fed to hike interest rates from zero to five in a very short period of time. By the end of 2021, our sell side indicator was at the most bullish levels we'd seen the global financial crisis. Yep, nobody thought anything was going to go wrong. And then whamo, you saw bear market. So today. By the way,”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, exactly. I think that's right. And I think, you know, even when you think about where we were in 2021, at the end of 2021, I felt really nervous about stocks because for the first time we were forecasting negative real rates, which is... Really, you know, kind of a”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think that's right. I think it's not just new economy chip purveyors, but it's also the companies that buy the chips and become better. But I also think there's something going on right now that we should be really excited about, which is that interest rates are no longer at zero. They're at 5%. So the Fed has done a lot of work for us. Companies are behaving much more rationally today than they have in the past. They're thinking about how to become more efficient. This is something they haven't thought about.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The companies that are labor light almost always outperform their labor-intensive peers. So we are sitting right now at a point in time where over the next five to ten years, or I don't know how long it takes, the S&P 500 has this opportunity and this new tool to become even labor lighter than it is today. That is hugely bullish.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Than any period of time in the past. Generative AI is new. It's a new thing. It's a game changer for many industries. Call centers have gone away. I mean, entire industries have gone away overnight because of the advent of generative AI. And that's where I think it's really bullish is in the ability to replace a lot of these rote activities that people right now are being paid to do. So one of the things that I've seen in my quant work is that if you look at any sector of the market and any peer group and you look at the labor intensive companies and the companies that are labor light,”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Relatively speaking, which are still in that value cohort, and they are also one of the few sectors that's become more labor intensive since the financial crisis. Why? Because these regulated banks had to hire all these legal and compliance and expert folks to make sure we weren't doing anything bad, right? So today, think about all those processes. Those are much easier to replace with an automated AI, like, you know, bot, whatever you want to call it.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, subscribing premium to all the clunky services companies out there. Like this is why I'm bullish on large cap banks. One of the reasons is.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even more labor light. I think the whole bowcase around AI right now is not buying the chip makers. It's buying the index because the index is about to become that much higher quality. You know, it's”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, right, right, right. So that's the idea is that the margins are more stable, they're less reliant on risky labor, which people can go on strike or sue companies, whereas processes can't. Yeah, so I think there's validity to that point. I mean, when I look at the S&P today, it's not only is it a different animal in terms of its sector mix, but it's also less levered. Everybody took advantage of super low interest rates to term out their debt and, you know, kind of, so fixed rate obligations are de rigur for the average S&P company versus floating rate obligations prior to the crisis. I think that also when you look at the labor intensity of the S&P 500, it's become much more labor-light. And oh, by the way, AI is going to give us the opportunity over the next 10 years to be”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I think that there is this tendency of quants, myself included, to look at a time series and say, okay, if the PE of the S&P 500 right now is 21 times and it has mostly been below 15 times, and whenever it's been 21 times in the past, it's gone down. Those types of analyses, I think, are just deeply flawed, especially in light of the fact that the market itself is not one kind of monolith that's always the same. It's a changing animal. And if you look at the S&P today, 50% of it is asset-light innovation-oriented healthcare and tech, whereas in 1980, 70% of it was manufacturing asset intensive, et cetera.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This time. I think that that's the other thing I've learned in finance you can never just apply the last crisis playbook to the current environment. And that's something that I think it's hard to train a bot or a process on how to actually sort of determine what you need to factor in this time that is different from all of the historical data.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As a perfect example, but I think at some level, you still need to have that domain knowledge and that level of expertise that trains the models. Essentially, I think that we could just create a pocket analyst at this point. You could create an analyst that basically puts together the rough limbs of an earnings report, a report on earnings, or a report on a specific event. And then you have the analyst himself or herself read it and make sure it makes sense and, you know, tweak it, et cetera. But there's a lot of that route activity that can be replaced by AI, whether AI can invest better than a human being. I doubt it because I think that at some level you need that domain experience. You need that behavioral angle. You need to analyze what's different this time because there always is something different.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think it's already happened if you think about just like certain industries have just gone away, right? You can... I mean, look, I think it's going to replace some of us, it's going to replace a lot of these processes that we do that are really, really boring and laborious.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, essentially, we're looking at, we're using these lexicon models to suss out how increasingly positive or negative analysts are getting on certain companies, certain sectors, certain themes. And it turns out to be a very good leading indicator for analysts changing their ratings, for stock performance, for earnings revisions. So there is something to be said for NLP or, you know, kind of these more big data tools that are actually tracking broader signals over a long period of time.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So I think that positioning data is important. I love looking at like a new tool that we've been using more is kind of natural language processing applied to research or transcripts or, you know, I'll give you one example. So we came up with this analyst tone metric. Tone. Tone. T-O-N-E. So we look at our own research and we track whether analysts within a sector are getting more positive or negative by virtue of just their language, not their ratings or you're counting.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I think that is empirically that's borne out by what we're seeing in our data. But what's really interesting is if you have a list of companies, one of the things we do every month, and it's just a laborious, horrible process, I used to do it, and now I'm fortunate it's to have one of my teammates do it, but you just basically scrape all the 13Fs out there. You come up with what everybody loves and what everybody hates. And it's kind of like the sell site indicator. If you've got a stock that is massively overweight, everybody owns it in the professional community. There's probably not that much upside.”
2024-05-16 · Masters in Business · Savita Subramanian on Equity and Quantitative Strategy · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source