YouSaid · the spoken record

Stephen Kotkin

lines on the record: 166
first: 2022-05-25
most recent: 2022-05-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yes, Lex. It hurts and it's Syria where 350,000 at least by UN estimates died and Russia participated in that. And it's Yemen. And it's so many other places that don't have the same degree of attention that a European country like Ukraine has. But yeah, we have to remember also that in addition to Ukraine, and then there's things right home here in New York City where children are without food, which is just inexcusable in a country that's rich.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is experienced in my study at home and in my office at Princeton or my coming office at Stanford when I move full time to Stanford in September or it's experienced far away in safety and in comfort. And we have to remember that too when we talk about these things, when we answer your questions, right? That as we speak and as we comment and think we're experts on these things from the comfort of our existence. There are people in those tragedies right now.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Mutual Lex, thank you as well, and thank you for the respect that you've shown me. These are really difficult issues that don't have simple answers, but that doesn't mean we give up We have to keep thinking and learn and trying and finding solutions in everything we do, including on these big global tragedies that we live through. And it's hardbreaking what's going on. It just breaks my heart every day. A person who studies this. I've been studying this for decades, and it keeps happening. And you think again. And yes, it is again, but we still have to keep trying and we have to be inspired by those people who are more courageous than we are and sacrifice more than we sacrifice. You know, for me, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war in Ukraine,”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it can be done, and you can be reminded that having a positive impact even on one other person gives far greater meaning to your own life and is profoundly satisfying, much more satisfying than the attention you might get, let's say on social media or awards you might receive. There's nothing wrong with pursuing those. People pursue them and it's a free society. But leading a purposeful life intentionally is possible.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you can have a positive impact on other people's lives through the work that you do, whether that's your employment or your charity, your spare time, or your work time. It can be by modeling proper behavior, admitting your mistakes. Hard to do but necessary, remembering that you don't know everything, you can't predict the future, but you don't even know everything in your areas of expertise. Painfully reminded of that humility at times, but remind yourself to. So you can lead a life that can show others what good values are. And you can lead a life that dedicates yourself not only to your own material well-being, but to the well-being and to the development of others around you. And it can be on a humble scale. It can be in a small classroom or a small workplace, a small work team.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I can't answer that question either, but I can say that having a purposeful life Is actually not that hard. You can't, you're not Gandhi. You're not President Roosevelt. You're not going to transform a country or a civilization or become immortal because of your courage and your insight and your genius at critical moments. But you live in an environment, you're in a school, you're in a workplace, you're somewhere where you can affect other people in a positive way. It can be not just about yourself, but it can be about them.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And sure, some signs they're looking where is it, but maybe they don't know. And so you're going to move on him and you're going to jump him in his Kremlin out, his dacha, outside Moscow. And it turns out he's in Sochi or vice versa. And it turns out the FSO is loyal to him and won't let you anyway. So Lex, we don't know, but we watch this FSO really closely. And we think that the elites, if not Putin, but maybe Putin too, understand Navalny as a really big potential political card that they could play.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Predominantly with the rest of the government, including with the defense and security officials. They don't have frequent access to his person. And as you were alluding earlier to the pandemic, they have to quarantine for two weeks before every meeting with him. And moreover, you know, Lex, they don't know where he is. See when they're on Zoom with him And the room. It's the Val His office in the Valdai region looks the same as his office in Sochi or his office outside of Moscow in Nova Agariova there made up to look very similar on Zoom.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so maybe that's the reason he's still alive, or maybe there are other reasons that we don't know. And so some alternative to Putin is more likely to arise inside his gang, Putin Shaika, as they say, right? Inside his gang, where they tire of his mistakes, they tire of his self-defeating actions. And they say patriotically for Russia. We need to do something against move against this guy because he's hurting our country and also because I could do better. I'm ambitious as well as patriotic. But once again the problem there, Lex is Putin is surrounded by this cocoon known as the FSO. He meets on Zoom”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That Navalny is even more popular outside of Russia than he is inside of Russia. You know, he's the leader in many ways of the political opposition in the country, even while still in prison. His organization's been destroyed. But he doesn't have majority support in the population by any stretch of the imagination. But he's a big figure in the West, including here in the U.S. And so Navalny could be their ticket, their kind of get out of jail card, meaning they release him from prison. He gets appointed, I don't know, prime minister even by the Putin regime if he were willing to accept such a position, and I have my doubts about that. And then that's how they lobby to remove the sanctions against them. So he's a card that President Putin could play.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I wish I knew Lex. I've been surprised that he's still alive. I've been worried that he will be killed in prison in a staged fight, you know, some. A security officer, prison, guard puts on a prison outfit, takes a lead pipe, goes into the cell, they have a quote fight, and Navalny is killed. I've been afraid of that. He's still alive, even though he's serving a long sentence. So that leads me to guess that people inside the Putin regime and may be present in Putin himself understand that Navalny is their ticket to lift sanctions.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Authoritarian regimes lack, they're terrible. They fail at everything. They can't feed their people, they have trouble achieving any goals. They only have to be good, however, one thing. They only have to be good at the complete suppression of political alternatives. If you can suppress political alternatives, you can fail at everything else, but you can survive as an authoritarian regime. So you watch Navalny.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So there could be a coup at some point, but there's none today in evidence. He could go because he's reached the life expectancy or he could stay for a long time. The thing to watch about this is an organization that nobody pays attention to, the FSO, the Federal Naya Slojba Akhrani, which is the Praetorian Guard, the self-standing bodyguard directorate, the only one, the only organization in Russia that has any access to him. We've seen no disloyalty, no breaking of ranks, no defections, nothing in the public realm in open sources about any divisions or problems in the FSO in the Praetorian Guard. So if you can't break that chain, Illicit defections there, you can't overturn him.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No evidence of a coup yet. None whatsoever He's pretty much at life expectancy for a Russian male. Those are bad numbers. He's 69, going to be 70. So he's lived the life of a Russian male already, but he's got better doctors than the majority of the Russian males. In that, let's say, comparison set. So he could live a very long time with good doctors.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're going to be in a different environment, different circumstances. And is Ukraine still as central at that point as it seems to be right now? I don't know the answer to that question.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The multipower nuclear agreement. Iran is now much closer to the bomb than they were. They were still in when the United States was still in that agreement. And you tell me the Israeli government that says, sure, it's fine, it's okay. Iran could get the bomb. And so maybe that happens, and maybe that happens as early as this summer as Iran gets closer and closer and closer. Maybe that guy in North Korea decides it's his time, just like his grandfather. In 1950, decided it's time we're going to quote reunify, unquote, the Korean Peninsula. Maybe, I don't know, like, fill in a blank. Something's going to happen. It's not going to be what I predict. It's not going to be what I'm watching. It's going to be obvious only after it happens, not before. And then it's going to upend the table. And all of a sudden”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In other words, legs. We're watching Ukraine war right now, and all of our attention is focused on that. And it's like the economists say in their textbooks when they're powerful models are employed. And there's this line that says all other factors held constant, comma. And then the model works. And you get this really great result, it's a very powerful predictor. Analysis the model. And the whole game is all other factors held constant. So, the Ukraine war that we've been discussing, and this could happen, and that could happen, but you know what stuff could happen next, for example. The Israeli government could decide this summer that it's going to bomb Iran because no Israeli government will tolerate Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. And since President Trump exited unilaterally exited from the...”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't predict the future, and nobody in 1922 could see that future, although I guess there were some clairvoyants who predicted it.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I sure hope That's not what happened. But I'm looking in 1922. It's an epoch I know well. And I don't see the future that unfolds. I would not have predicted it had I been alive then. I see the war behind us. I see prosperity on the horizon. Yes, inflation in Germany and some many other difficult issues, but there are more democracies now than there were before the war and the old empires are gone. And there's a cultural efflorescence and there's modernism in the arts and there's women entering the public sphere and there's all this fantastic new technology like automobiles. And I'm looking at the future from 1922 and I'm not seeing the Great Depression and I'm not seeing World War II and I'm not seeing the Holocaust because”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To remain consumers and drive the economy, which is the model that they have to share. So he's got a litany of challenges independent even of the fact that he sided with his pal Vladimir Putin and their bromances costing China very, very significantly.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And he's now got to do that within this environment where he has damaged Chinese grand strategy and damaged the reputation of China and its relationships across the world, maybe not permanently, but significantly. In addition to the problems they have at home, demography, as you know, a middle income trap, and then the regulatory insanity of Chinese communist rule that we've seen with the tech companies that you know well, where they've destroyed all of that value. With the blow up of their property sector because it was a massive bubble and that's still playing out. And this time it's the same, meaning this time it's not different when it comes to a property blowout. It has enormous effects on middle class balance sheets and their ability to.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We'll see if this indoors. Maybe it doesn't endure. Maybe it's a fleeting moment. Maybe this is not an inflection point. Maybe the war in Ukraine ends more quickly than we think. And maybe like you said, the Chinese and the Indians and the rest of them, the leaders there, they get their wish that it ends and the world moves on and forgets or says let's try again to resume our mutual understanding, our mutually beneficial trade and everything else. Maybe it's a passing phase. We can't exclude that. I'm very poor at predicting the future. The moment is not a good one for the Chinese regime, let alone the fact that he's trying to impose control. Unprecedented in the modern era third term for himself as president in the fall at the next party congress, becoming president for life de facto a mau like figure.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Morally, politically, criminally, to bet Xinjiang, Hong Kong. How is that different from what Putin is doing in Ukraine? I'd be hard-pressed to differentiate that ultimately, even though the analogies are not exact. And so the Chinese, it's like that guy Leonef, the author of Likaletia, the great memoir of the late Soviet period, the end of the Soviet Union, you know, that they spend all this time and all these resources blackening our image, but we supply them with endless material to blacken our image. That's where Xi Jinping's regime is right now, Alex. And so they have a big dilemma on their side. It's a Western world, and they've united the Western world and reawoken the rest and the fact that China is a threat, to the values, the institutions and values of the West. And that trade is not transforming China quite the opposite.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“China's a great civilization China predates the United States by millennia. China's accomplishments are breathtaking, but China's also led by, let's be honest, a communist party monopoly. Which engages in a lot of criminal behavior. Lex Tibet is Ukraine. Xinjiang is Ukrain Hong Kong is Ukraine Let alone support for Putin. This is before we've even discussed Taiwan And so now the Europeans are coming to see this and the Americans are coming to understand this, that maybe trading with a regime like that.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'd like to know, Lix. I'd like you to be able to sit down with him across from this table here on your podcast and pose that same question to him because we have no idea.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Gets hydrocarbons from Russia at reduced prices. And the Chinese get hydrocarbons from a lot of countries They have a completely diverse supply chain for their energy.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Doesn't side with him providing military equipment, he doesn't provide technology transfer But he provides public support and massive pro-Russian propaganda to the whole Chinese population. And the Europeans say, Wait a minute, this is an invasion of a sovereign country in Europe. What do you mean? You're not condemning Vladimir Putin's invasion. And so that wedge that the Chinese had, that was the basis of their grand strategy, that wedge between the US and Europe when it came to China policy. That wedge is gone now. Xi Jinping destroyed it. And the Europeans and the Americans are coming close together on Ukraine and Russia policy for sure, but also more and more on China policy. And so that was a pretty big sacrifice for the Chinese leader to make. And what did he get in return?”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But hostility from America. But we have an ace in the hole. Our ace in the hole is Europe. Europe hates conflict. They're all about trade. Doesn't matter how evil you are, they love to trade because Vandel Dorch Handel changed through trade. They have this illusion that you're going to become a better country if they trade with you and you won't have conflict, war and hostilities if you trade. And so we have this European ace in the hole. We're hostile with the Americans. We're still buying or stealing their technology. And better than that even, the Europeans are not hostile to us at all. They love to trade with us and they want to trade more and they're our biggest trading partner already. Lo and behold, Xi Jinping sides with Vladimir Putin. The aggression in Ukraine.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which was sure, America is hostile because America is hegemonic. America wants to control the world. America will never let China rise. America will do everything it can to hold China down. So we're going to have hostility from America. We don't want to decouple because we need that high-end technology transfer. Either we buy it or we steal it because America and the rest of the West has all the technology that we need. We have some of it domestically, more than before by a lot, but we're still dependent, so we can't decouple. So we'll have the hostility, but there'll be a line we don't cross just so that we don't lose the technology transfer. Made in China 2035 is accomplished and we're self sufficient domestically in AI and every other area that's critical.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For a free hand in the former Soviet space that closed hierarchical sphere of influence where Russia would exert influence coercively over countries that were sovereign. And no American president. Grant that, and President Bush was right. He said no. And so the attempted cooperation blew up. But who's at fault there? Should there be Non voluntary sphere of influence should that be granted Or should you face up to attempts to do that? You know, let's take a little detour here into China for a second. China had this brilliant grand strategy.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's very well known that Vladimir Putin was one of the first, maybe the first person, first leader, foreign leader to call President Bush after the nine hundred eleven tragedy. They didn't connect right away. President Bush was not in Washington, but eventually they did speak. He condemned the terrorist attack, he offered Russian support, which he delivered on the use of some Russian logistics for our Afghanistan operations. A lot of people point to that and they say there it is. Russia wanted to cooperate and did cooperate and we spurned them or we failed to appreciate Russia's cooperation. And so therefore Russia was cheated or Russia was lied to or Russia's grievances are legitimate But here's the problem with that argument, Lex. In exchange for that support, Vladimir Putin. Asked in return from President Bush”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you're just one of those countries. And Russia's answer to that was no, we're not just one of those countries. We need special rules. We need special conditions. We'll integrate, but only as a special country, meaning like at the UN, where all countries are sovereign, all countries are members, but Russia has a veto on what countries can and can't do. Those were the terms on which they were willing to integrate and those were the terms that no leader of a Western country or the United States or the G7 or fill in the blank can grant to Russia.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was because Russia ultimately spurned the integration because it was about what terms the integration would come on. Would you come into the West and observe Western rules? And be another country. Meaning just another country. There's Poland and there's Austria and there's little tiny Monaco and there's Russia.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a skill for sure. It's a skill, and it's the highest level skill of a diplomat to be able to reach some type of common understanding when interests and worldviews clash so much. But here's your challenge, Lex. Your challenge is Russia wants to impose a closed sphere of influence. Its neighbors. It wants to dictate. Its neighbors can and can't do. It wants to exert influence not by the power of its example, but Not by the freedom of its people, not by the dynamism of its diversified economy, but it wants to exert influence just because it deserves that, just because it's a great power, just because and on and on and on. It's a civilization unto itself. And it wants that, and we can't give that. The reason that Russia was not integrated into the West was not for lack of trying.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People who have sat across the table from him, whether at 30 yards or at three. Have remarked upon this feeling of isolation that has affected him. The pandemic, I think there must be something to that if several people who've been in the room with him are remarking on it. Everybody that I know, and I've been able to talk to who's had a meeting with him in the past 10 years. Including Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State. Has said that Putin spends a lot of time Enumerating his grievances. He goes through a monologue of his grievances, and then the Wested Dis and then the West lied to us about that, and then the West cheated us on this. And so it's not the conversation that you're encouraging of common humanity. It's that roiling resentment volcano that's just exploding and exploding.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Henry Kissinger. You alluded to his op-ed. He's had many private meetings with President Putin. Over a long time President Biden Previous presidents, secretaries of state, Officials below Secretary of State, the head of the CIA evidently met with President Putin in the fall when he was massing the troops on the border before he invaded. And we sent the head of the CIA, and Putin received him. Somebody he evidently respects or was at least willing to meet, unlike other members of the administration. So, a lot of people are talking to him in some form or another for the twenty two years he's been in power. And I'm not sure it's had what I would call their desired effect.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that means that it's easier for our politicians to go to war because they don't face conscription, they don't have the draft, which affects every family in the country. And because The number of people in the volunteer force is such a narrow stratum of the population. And so they've been getting away with this because the professional army is much better than the conscript army. And in all volunteer forces, much preferable from a military point of view. But from a societal point of view, It enables you to go to war too easily as a politician, and it doesn't engage the society the same way that the Ukrainian society is completely engaged from those young hackers all the way up to those grandmothers.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's no substitute for that kind of stuff, that level of resolve, willingness to die for your country. That's a really big lesson that we need to absorb in our own country. We've been going to war more frequently than we should. And like you said, without the justification all the time, and then like Henry Kissinger said, without understanding how this was going to end. It's easy to start a war, it's very difficult to win a war, prevail in a war, or end a war on terms that meet your original expectations, right? We've been fighting wars, but we haven't been fighting wars as societies. We've been fighting wars as a small sliver of our population, something like 1% of our population is involved with the military because we have an all-volunteer force.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's really ultimately about the people. It's about the human capital, right? It's about their willingness. Their skill level, but also their willingness to fight and to put their lives on the line. And there's no substitute for that. And so what's called morale? Courage or bravery or valor? That's really the ultimate decisive provided you have enough sufficient arms. To conduct the fight. And if you don't, you use a Molotov cocktail. Grandma calls in the coordinates of the Russian tank on her iPhone. And you have a Molotov cocktail that The people who used to work in the cafeteria are now stuffing flammable liquid into bottles, and you carry one right up to the tank and you smash it against the tanker, you drop it in one of the hatches in the tank, right?”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It turns out it's more than useful. You can save your country that way. And so they're not alone. They're getting support. And that support is important. But really predominantly it's Ukrainians on the cyber battlefield and their skills have been very impressive and they've been preparing for this for a number of years and they have a whole army of young people on the cyber side. It's their civilian population. These are not people conscripted into the military or volunteering wearing the uniform. And so even in cyber warfare the Ukrainians have been extremely impressive. And so let's remember that all of these aspects of warfare, whether it's how far your cruise missiles go and how accurate they are, what size your cyber capabilities are.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, but those Ukrainian people, they're like Ulex. They're young and they're technically really proficient And they've been amazing. You know, they spent those teenage years in the basement. In video games, not the”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I wish like yours. So there are these things that we can't predict, but there are these things we're watching and watching closely.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're digging in deeply in the areas that they have penetrated, and they're trying to build unassailable positions. For when the Ukrainians transition from mostly defense to full scale offense. And we'll see if that now, I mean, they're digging everywhere. As they say, Capayut, Kapayot, right? They're digging everywhere behind”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the NATO supplied artillery goes really far, and you can fire into Russian positions and yourself not be exposed to Russian fire because your artillery fires farther than theirs. So that's coming. And we're going to see that in action. And so the scale is not the same, but the weapons, the precision of some of the weapons and some of the NATO, we're not sending all of our stuff. But as I said, the dynamic is Russia commits atrocities, Russia bombs schools, Russia bombs, hospitals, Russia kills civilians, and more and heavier and more lethal Western weapons go to Ukraine, their willingness to risk their lives is really so impressive and the reason that it's our duty. We're obliged. To supply those weapons. And so the Russians don't have that resupply, and the Ukrainians do. And so the Russians are now digging in”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You can coordinate the direction of the artillery fire with the drones. The drones can take a picture and show you where the enemy is precisely located, and you can align that artillery to hit them instead of just indiscriminately bombing an area, a territory.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then remount the counteroffensive at scale later on in the future if the first one doesn't succeed. So that would be further echoes of the World War II experience. The scale, once again, is much smaller. The size of the armies here, they're not in the many 800,000, 700,000, a million, two, a million four. That's not what we're talking about today. The weapons. The cruise missiles, right? Artillery fire. You know, artillery fire used to be very inaccurate. And it was like saturation. You were just fired towards the enemy lines. And if you hit something, you hit something. And if you didn't, you just kept firing. You have drones, Lex. And so artillery fire is now sniper fire.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ultimately, it took the Red Army reinvading the territory of Ukraine and succeeding at combined arms operations at scale. A massive counteroffensive much larger than anything we're talking about today. Ultimately, it required that to evict the Nazis from Ukraine. But in the meantime, they did not have an easy occupation regime there. Ukrainian partisans, Soviet partisans, killed. Nazi officials, Wehrmacht soldiers, Wehrmacht officers blew up the infrastructure they were using. Made them pay a price for their occupat We could well see if unfortunately this ends in a stalemate for the time being, we could well see that type of insurgency gain momentum behind Russian lines. And try to evict the Russians that way.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Have insurgencies. You have the armed insurgency in melitopol, for example, which is a place that you know in southeastern Ukraine. There is a guerrilla war now underway to hurt the Russians who are in occupation of that city and region. And we're going to see that continue even if the war becomes a stalemate. Even if it stalemates more or less that the lines we're at now, which would mean that anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive at scale proves unsuccessful, the Russian army doesn't disintegrate. And you end up with a stalemate where there could be a ceasefire, not a ceasefire, but neither side is attempting an offensive for the time being. There will be resistance behind those Russian lines, and it will be fierce resistance. The kind of resistance we saw to the Nazi occupation.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, it is Lex. I've written the chapters of volume three, I've drafted the chapters on the war. And as I said, the place names are very evocative unfortunately. But The Nazis failed ultimately. They captured Ukraine for a time, but they were evicted from Ukraine. There was massive partisan or guerrilla warfare resistance behind Nazi lines the whole time. They were allegedly in control of Ukraine. If you look at the maps on cable TV, they show you the sign of the coloring Russian control. And they draw a line and then it's colored in. But the word control is misplaced They don't actually control it. It's Russian claimed or extent of farthest Russian troop advancement. Because behind the Russian lines in Ukraine, Crimea accepted.”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, those are all important questions that have to be pursued with resources and with determination and by skilled people who are excellent at gathering that evidence. And that process is underway. And Ukraine has a trial underway now of one alleged war criminal who's pleaded guilty and we'll see what the outcome of that trial inside Ukraine is of a lower level official, not obviously Vladimir Putin, but the commander of a tank group. The names are eerily familiar Kharkiv. Those are the names we know from the Nazi invasion and the Nazi occupation of Ukraine. It's very deeply troubling to think that this could happen again. And there is a bizarre sense that the Russians, claiming as Putin says to denazify Ukraine, have invaded the same places that the Nazis invaded back in nineteen forty one”
2022-05-25 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #289 – Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source