YouSaid · the spoken record

Stephen Miran

lines on the record: 82
first: 2024-07-23
most recent: 2024-07-23
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“maintain financial conditions both on the short end and the long end of the yield curve easier than otherwise. It stimulated also the price of other assets, including, for example, corporate bonds or real estate related assets. And therefore, part of the reason why the Fed was unable to achieve the soft landing and were in a low landing zone was this activist treasury issuance. Now you're asking me, what if they have not done that? Then I would say that the economy probably would have slowed down much more. Inflation would have moved fast. There was 2%. And we don't know whether that would have caused an actual short and shallow recession, a softish landing, or a real just soft landing. But certainly probably treasury was worried that what the Fed was doing”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the first three months of the year, what happened was that inflation ticked up and growth was still robust, maybe less robust the last year, but robust. So people started to worry about a kind of a no landing zone. The growth was too strong last year, that inflation was falling, but core inflation was remaining above 3% as opposed to falling towards two. And the question was, hey, the Fed hike rates all the way from zero to five and a half. People were worrying about the hard landing or a short and shallow recession would not even get that. We were in a low landing zone. So what can that explain it? Maybe some of it was luck and positive supply shock, but in our paper we argue that part of that story is instead activist treasury issuance that essentially is financial condition.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the supply of long duration as opposed to increasing the demand has an impact that was described by affecting interest rate risk on long bond yields 25 basis points and hundred basis points on the short end of the yearly curve. So they are effectively equivalent. There are really small nuances that are very technical but substantial is the same story. Now, in terms of where the economy would be, a year ago, of course, people when the Fed was hiking were worried that we'll have a hard landing. Then people said, well, we got lucky that a bunch of positive aggregate supply shocks, maybe we'll have a softish landing. And until six months ago, I would say it looked like inflation was dropping like a stone last year and growth was above potential. We're on the way to a soft landing that is exactly what the Fed wants and what treasury wants. However,”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On the first question, they're very similar because in estimating the impact of ATI on tenure treasuries, we took studies and there's a broad range of literature estimating what are the impact of quantitative easing. And in the literature on quantitative easing was shown that about 800 billion to a trillion of QE is equivalent to twenty-five basis points reduction in ten-year thresholds reduction in the policy rate defeld funds rate. So we don't have other episodes of these ATI is unusual unless you go to other very far historical examples. So the way we thought about it was QE has this impact and ATI effectively by reducing”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Marginally more inclined to divert its capital away from treasury notes into slightly riskier securities like corporate bonds or agency securities and then some people who own that will be oriented to own less investment grade bonds and then to high yield bonds and then people who own that will get less high yield bonds into stocks and then people will be less inclined to hold stocks and more inclined to call Bitcoin. So Nureel's favorite. So it pushes people up the risk curve by causing a scarcity of very, very safe assets. Nureel, I've got two questions for you. Number one, what is the difference other than the mechanics? The difference is in terms of the impact between 800 billion dollars of activist treasury issuance ATI from the treasury versus 800 billion dollars of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. In effect, are they same or are there differences in terms of the impact?”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Limits the creation of interest risk at the source. And so rather than the Fed having to go out and mop it up during a downturn, mop up the interest and take it back from the public, ATI just reduces the creation of the interest to begin with and makes it scarcer. Both of these things make interest scarcer, which bids up the price of bonds that bear interest rate risk. And bidding up the price of bonds works through markets to bid up the price of other assets too, whether it's corporate credit, whether it's equities, whether it's real estate, really whether it's anything, any other sort of risk asset out there at all, right? And that pushes up economic activity. And of course, pushing up economic activity generates more inflation. You know, it reduces unemployment and it generates inflation. And so ATI works in very, very similar ways to QE, but rather than being implemented by the Fed, it's implemented by Treasury. But in both cases, in both cases, what you're doing is you're manipulating the amount of interest rate risk that investors own and the amount”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Changing the relative allocation between them doesn't have any significant economic effects. But changing the allocation between bills and money supply versus coupons, which are not money-like, is going to have big economic consequences. And that's how QE works, right? QE works by taking coupon debt from the public and giving them bank reserves in exchange. So you've taken interest rate risk away from the public, given them risk-free bank reserves in exchange, and then the public therefore has more risk capacity to go out and buy stocks, go out and buy real estate, right? That pushes economic activity up, right? Activist treasury issuance, ATI doesn't buy interest rate risk from the public. It just gives them less to start with. And it changes the ratio of bills to coupons that Treasury auctions to begin with. So whereas the Fed, when it does QE, goes out and buys interest at risk from the public, ATI.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of the private sector for coupon debt, you're creating a real economic change, right? And there are several economic changes that occur. One is that whoever owns these things now bears more risk, right? They own interest rate risk now, which means that all of their risk analysis in terms of how much risk they can tolerate changes. And so because they have more interest rate risk, you're probably reducing your ability to bear other forms of risk, like credit risk or equity risk. They also have different regulatory characteristics as well, right? And so from a bank's perspective, if you're giving them bills, they're treated from a regulatory perspective, you know, not exactly the same as bank reserves, but very similarly to how bank reserves are, right? Because they bear similar risk profiles as bank reserves. Sorry, as Fed reserves. But if you get a bank interest rate risk, that has a very different implication for capital weights and for the bank's ability to hold other types of assets as well. And so while bills and bankers are very, very close substitutes to each other, they're”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's right. Bills are so close to risk free from a variety of perspectives and so close to reserves at the Fed that a bank like JPMorgan might have at the Fed that they're effectively money like. They're not money, but they're almost money and they're very close substitutes for money. And therefore if government authorities, whether it's the Treasury Department or the Fed or anybody else, changes the relative allocation in the public's holdings between reserves at the Fed and Treasury bills because one is money and one is almost money, it has very little economic consequence, right? There's very little that there's very little economic or market impact because bills and bank reserves are so close in terms of their economic characteristics, right? Both of those bills and bank reserves are very unlike coupon debt because coupon debt bears interest rate risk. If you swap bills or bank reserves in the whole”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Quantitative easing works is on buying longer duration securities, securities that require balance sheets to actually hold because they have risk. If you have a 10-year treasury note, that value can go down 15% if interest rates rise, as happened over the past two years. So you're taking that risk out of the market. That's how quantitative easing does it. And the way it takes that risk out of the market is by just increasing the demand by buying themselves this way. instead of the Federal Reserve increasing demand, it is Treasury reducing supply. Do I have that right?”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, QE is quantitative easing done by the Federal Reserve. ATI is activist treasury issuance, your term. And that is, is by the Treasury. And you found that the ATI done by the Treasury, the activist Treasury issuance, is equivalent to 100 basis points of cuts. So monetary policy is actually at 100 basis points or one percentage looser than the Federal Reserve might think. So that's why this conversation is so relevant. Steve, just to go back to your point about how activist Treasury issuance works. Bill's Treasury bills are very money-like. They are similar to a bank account. So if a central bank were to buy treasury bills, create bank reserves and swap them for treasury bills. Your point is that wouldn't actually be that stimulative because Treasury bills are already like money. It's like creating $100 bills and swapping it for another $100 bill. But really the way.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Put that in context if ATI is worth about 100 basis points of lower Fed funds rate, it's effectively a one percentage point cut to the Fed's overnight rate, that's effectively undoes all of the hikes they did in 2023, right? They basically did. Our argument is basically that Treasury effectively blocked those from ever hitting me.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reduction in Of course So the Fed is trying to push the Fed funds right now to five and a half. So it's effectively as if the effective hands rate today is not five and a half but four and a half. In our view, that's one of the reasons why the economy has been until recently in the no landing scenario where growth is above potential and inflation has remained more sticky than was originally forecast and predicted by the Fed.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So neural what you and Steve have found is not that this 800 billion of missing coupon issuance is equivalent to 25 basis points of increases in the Fed funds rates or one single cut or hike, but actually 100 basis points. So that is a very significant”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Treasury issued zero coupon debt, right? Zero intermediate and long term debt, and all in all bills, right? That would remove an enormous amount of interest rate risk from the market and thereby begin pushing up other forms of other asset prices as well. So it really works through a lot of the same channels that QE does and allows the Treasury Department to effectively implement what's a stealth QE program in terms of its effects on markets and the economy, but from Treasury instead of from the Fed.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Does when it does QE, it takes interest rate risk out of the market, as Noriel was saying, it bids up the price of bonds, and then the folks who then sort of say, okay, we can get rid of our bonds because they've moved up in price, they say, okay, we can buy something else like corporate bonds or stocks, right? And that pushes people, you know, out the risk curve. This is what economists and central banks call the portfolio balance channel. And it pushes them out the risk curve. And as a result, it pushes up asset prices throughout the market and that higher asset prices generate more economic activity, that higher more economic activity is a form of stimulus. And so that's how QE works, right? ATI works through the exact same channel of manipulating the amount of interest rate risk that investors own, but rather than stashing that interest rate risk away on the Fed's balance sheet by having the Fed buy it from the market and put it on its balance sheet, it just reduces the creation of interest rate risk at the source, right? And so, you know, sort of take this to the extreme.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a Treasury Department issues a lot of bills and changes the ratio of the public's holdings between bank reserves and bills. It doesn't have any real meaningful effect because they're so separate. They're so similar, right? All you're doing is sort of swishing around different types of money or quasi-money. It has no real effect. But if the Treasury Department starts issuing a lot more coupons, intermediate and long-term debt instead of the bills, it's changing the amount of interest rate risk that the market has to absorb. Now the critical thing is, is that markets have at a given price, markets have a fixed appetite for risk. If you're giving the market more interest rate risk, the market has less ability to absorb other kinds of risk, like credit risk, equity risk, commodity risk, other types of assets, real estate risk, right? And so if the price of interest rate risk goes up or down, it'll flow through the system as markets are able to absorb more or less of that other type of risk. And so what the Fed”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No interest rate risk because there's so short term in nature and they have no credit risk because they're essentially at the Fed, right? Bills are very similar in having no credit risk. The Treasury is not going to default. It can't default by law, as well as having almost no interest rate risk because they're generally very short-term paper. Beyond that, sort of since the financial crisis, Treasury bills came to be treated from a regulatory perspective very similar to reserves at the Fed as we sort of moved away from a system that a bank regulatory system that counted reserves and reserve requirements and towards one that counted capital ratios. And they also began to be remunerated the same as reserves to Fed because the Fed started paying interest on reserve balances to the banks. And so bills then began to bear a similar regulatory credit duration profile as money and became very close substitutes for money.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And both QE and ETI work through, as Nureel was saying, manipulating the amount of interest rate risk that investors hold. And at the end of the day, the critical channel through which both of these policies work both QE and ATI is through the fact that essentially Treasury bills, short-term debt, right? So short-term debt a year or less are usually referred to as Treasury bills, intermediate and long-term debt with greater tenors than that are referred to as coupons because in the old days they would come up with little coupon hanging off the bill and you'd mail that into the treasury and get your interest payment back twice a year. And so that's why they're called coupon debt. Bills are really effectively substitutes for money, right? And so if you think of money as bank reserves, as deposits, you know, deposits that you have at the bank, which then have deposits at the Fed, they have no duration risk.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's quantitative easing. Suppose that you are inside the treasury, you have to issue that to finance your deficit. You can issue short-term debt or you can issue longer-term debt. If you decide to issue longer-term debt, less of it, you reduce the supply of longer duration treasuries compared to the demand. And when the supply is reduced given demand, the price is going to be higher and the yield is going to be lower. So QE done by the Fed is acting on the demand for treasury by the Fed, while QE done through the back door by the Treasury is working by reducing the supply. It doesn't matter whether you increase the demand or you reduce the supply, the price is higher, the yield is lower. So that's the way you should think about What the treasure is doing right now is a backdoor form of quantitative easing.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But explain how this work is as follows Think about what happens when the Fed does quantitive easing. There is a demand and there is a supply for treasuries when there is more demand the price goes higher and the yield falls there is an inverse relation within the price of the bond and the yield and when the supply increases of course more supply and therefore you need a lower price and a higher yield. So when the Fed does quantitative easing is trying to ease financial conditions by reducing long rates and by reducing the long rates on treasury the mortgage rates and other market rates that are related to 10-year treasury reduced as well because there has spread relative to treasuries so you're demanding more bonds increasing the price you're reducing the yield that's what you do”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Professor Rubini, can you go walk through the mechanics? How is the treasury issuing short-term debt as opposed to longer-term coupon debt? How is that comparable to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing? It's a very complicated topic, but I'd love if you could try and break that down for us.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One of the points that we make in the paper is that the line between politically driven monetary policy and politically independent monetary policy has been framed somewhat because Treasury's actions have really impinged on what's traditionally thought of as the Fed's purview of managing the business cycle through its management of interest rates and broader financial conditions. And that's potentially quite a dangerous precedent to start setting.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's absolutely right. The Fed, you know, the Fed's supposed to be an independent non political agency that's setting interest rates to manage the business cycle in a way that's independent of the political cycle, right? It's not supposed to take political calculation into effect when it's setting interest rates and monetary policy. Treasury, on the other hand, as you point out, is run by political appointees and is part of the executive branch and therefore does take into account political priorities of the administration when it's setting its policies and that extends across the entirety of Treasury's policy equities, whether you're talking about tax policy and the way that IRS rules get written, or you're talking about issuance policy and the way that the market for treasury securities is run. And so”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, this is why I'm really excited for both of you to be here. Steve, just to set the stage for our audience, the Treasury is part of the executive branch and the president is obviously elected. So that is a political organization, whereas the Federal Reserve, while boards of governors are appointed by the Senate and selected in a political process, they are supposed to be independent. So monetary policy really is supposed to be somewhat technocratic based on what economists as well as professional financial people think is best for the economy to affect its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. It is not supposed to be a political agent. And am I right, Steve, that your findings here would imply that Treasury is playing a little bit more of a role in monetary policy and a political organ, which is not an independent central bank, is having an impact. Is that right, Steve?”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the Federal Reserve not only has raised interest rates to tighten monetary policy, but it's also doing quantitative tightening, kind of the mirror opposite image of quantitative easing, that is to tighten monetary policy. But what you find is that the activist treasury issuance from the Treasury, you argue that there's over $800 billion of missing coupons or missing long duration treasuries that have been replaced by short-term treasury securities. So you really have done the math. And I should say that both of you gentlemen are economists, scholars, and both have worked in two separate treasury departments. Professor back in, I believe the 90s, you worked for the Clinton administration. And Steve, you most recently worked for the Minutian Treasury under the Trump administration. So you guys know what you're talking about. And yes, this is the most comprehensive and detailed and rigorous paper I have seen on this topic.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The ways in which Treasury is deviating from its rules and try and think and try and think rigorously about what effects that's having on the economy and how it interacts with the broader policy landscape.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reason we call it activist is because treasuries got a longstanding set of rules for how it manages debt. Treasury likes to manage debt in a way that's going to reduce, have the lowest interest expense to the taxpayer over a long period of time. In order to do so, it's got some rules that it follows in terms of how it issues treasury securities, right? And the reason we call it activists is because Treasury has been deviating from those rules, not temporarily, not for a week or two, not in the middle of a deep crisis, but it's been deviating from those rules in a large scale and systemic manner in a way that has had significant impacts on financial markets and through them on the economy. And we call it activist because it's a level of discretion and deviation from historic policy that's pretty unprecedented. And so what we do is we're sort of the first paper to sort of take seriously”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“cut the policy rates the fed funds rates by about 100 basis points and we believe that the fact that growth has remained above potential and inflation has remained sticky rather than moving faster towards 2% is due to the fact that treasury has effectively interfered with what the Fed has done and has tried to undo the impact of the Fed tightening because they want to maintain financial conditions easier than otherwise to stimulate growth during this part of the business cycle.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Reducing the supply given the demand, they are pushing the price of tenured treasury and other long-term treasury higher and the yield lower. So it's effectively a backdoor form of quantitative easing the way that the Fed was doing when they were actively purchasing long term bonds as a way of reducing the yield. Now we know that the Fed is trying to tighten monetary policy until recently in order to cool off the economy, slow down growth and push inflation towards its 2% target. Now this activist Treasury issuance becomes effectively a way for Treasury to undo what the Fed has done and our empirical estimates suggest that the amount of this active unconventional fiscal policy is equivalent to the Fed having”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This paper, we essentially find out evidence that Treasury has now started the last few quarters to issue the ratio of short-term bills to longer-term debt in a way that is different from their standard guidelines in the past that essentially say that not more than between 50 to 20 percent of the total stock of debt should be short-term. And they are issuing more short-term bills, less longer-term or longer duration bonds, and effectively, if you think about it, this is a form of backdoor quantitative easing because you're reducing the supply of longer-term treasuries while increasing the supply or shorter ones.”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Here today, the paper is called ATI Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug of War over Monetary Policy. So let's begin with you, Professor Grabini. What is activist treasury issuance or ATI? Why does it matter? And what is this tug of war over monetary policy between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve?”
2024-07-23 · Forward Guidance · How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT