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Stephen Suttmeier

lines on the record: 146
first: 2023-12-21
most recent: 2023-12-21
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“No, they're professional, but even professionals can form a crowd in a herd. I mean, that's the point of the indicator. That's the reason why there's a hedge fund clients that you visit outside New York City. They want to avoid the herd, right? But the other factor is asset manager positioning. Those are the smarter, I think, I view them as smarter. So when they're oversold, the markets usually down as well. When the market starts to bounce, they start to go with it. And they hit their lows, two of them last year, one in June and one in October. And it was great. It worked out really well using that sentiment indicator.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say it's more useful in calling Lowe's than it is in highs because When you think about a low in the market and fear in the market, there's more urgency, complacency by definition is not urgent. So that's why I think sentiment surveys work better when bears surge above 55, 60%, which is where they stood September of last year.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yep. So, a lot of different ways. First and foremost, I mean, you got the surveys that we talked about earlier. You got the book haul ratios. You got the VIS. Let me introduce.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Probably. I'm not sure what the impact exactly is. But yeah, I mean, I think just instant whatever the term is, I can't even know. But just instant information, I mean, it just makes things more volatile, generally speaking. You wouldn't know by looking at the fix, but you're looking at like intraday price action day by day price action. It's like you got stocks that have multi-billion market caps that are moving like two to three percent within the span of 15 minutes. I mean, that's a lot.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Back in the day, it was intraday charts that got really noisy, but now daily charts have gotten noisy. I hope weekly charts don't get noisy because that would complicate things even more.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, it just makes things very quickly. And you know how I adapted to it? I focus more on a longer-term timeframe. Not like monthly, but weekly. The daily gets a little bit noisy.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Analysis can be done. Let's face it, there's businesses built on that premise where you have high frequency trading, where they calculate things in milliseconds, I don't even know, but you know what I mean? It's like really fast nanoseconds. Nanoseconds is definitely probably the more accurate way of saying it, nanoseconds.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, it's again, it's still a market where people will, you know, trade and make decisions to buy and sell. I mean, I do look at stockcharts.com. I mean, when I'm on the road, that's very easy to pull up and work with. I mean, does it make it more of a self fulfilling prophecy? Who knows? I mean, but I think the general, it doesn't, it wouldn't negate the one major thing that dominates financial markets. It's fear and greed, you know, and maybe it accelerates that process a little bit more. I mean, the other thing, it's really not just technical analysis, but the availability information and instant analysis.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, you can make it more precise if you want to, but that requires a lot more effort and work. And, you know, with the computing power in a day, I think the one thing that's changed is a lot of people can think they can pull up at Bloomberg and all of a sudden call themselves a technical analyst because it's just very easy to create these things. I'm glad.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, yeah, Tom Dorsey, I believe Investor Intelligence also has a product on point and figure. I mean, very popular among the financial advisor crowd, but not so popular among the institutional crowd. Know the intuitional crowd probably looks at it and it's like, I'm looking at a letter from my grandmother with the X's and O's on it, you know, when she gives me hugs and kisses. It's a little imprecise.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, it definitely can allow for more rules-based signals in some regard. It allows us to do things with a greater universe of stocks. And I think it is useful to have that. But when I first joined Merrill Lynch in 2007, we still had point of figure charts that we were updating by hand.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I use some of the techniques that he put in there, in particular like a triple screen trading system where you have your weekly timeframe, but you make your decisions off the daily. But I managed to do it all on a weekly chart because if you put three different moving averages on a weekly chart, you can look at a long-term moving average and a short-term moving average and do it that way, where you decline below the shorter term one and hold a longer-term one. I generally view that as a positive for a stock and look to buy it.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some good cycle stuff there. Momentum. I got his book on momentum, which. Which I found very useful. And I guess a third one I think that impacted me quite a bit was Dr. Alexander Elder, who wrote Trading for a Living. And what I liked about that was, A, there's a lot of market psychology, investor psychology in there, but also how to run a trading system based on indicators. And I think that helped me out a lot. And much of in that book has influenced the way I've thought about markets and picking. As the equity technician, that's kind of what I need to do is identify stocks that I think can go up or down. Or at a minimum, underperform or outperform.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Torn off dog eared book, you know, technical analysis of the futures market. Now it's called Technical Analysis of Financials Market. So I got an old dog-eared copy at my desk still. I would say Martin Pring I learned a lot from through his work.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, look, I mean, obviously I compete with a lot of guys that do good work, but going back to the day, some of the Folks that have influenced my work influenced my work the most, I would say. Initially was John Murphy with his book. I mean, I have the.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know what I mean? So it's like, forget about him. I mean, I mean, forget about me. It's all about him, right? You know, I just kind of have to invoke that presence, you know, in my job, I guess. Because some financial advisors actually, when you see some of the commentary they write. The greatest compliment I think they ever paid me was he invokes Bob Farrell pretty well. And I know that's not 100% true because nobody can do that. But just to have half of that, I think is a compliment.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, those are huge shoes to fill. There's no question about it. And if I mention any of these things, any of his rules to follow in my research notes, it's like my readership doubles”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, he was the dean of technical analysis at Merrill Lynch, you know, for the better part of had to be 40, 50 years. He has his 10 rules to remember.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That tells you more what they're doing, you know, the volume of puts are higher than the volume of calls That goes above one, that means the vessels are fearful. Another one I look at that I find very useful for tactical loaves in the market, but sometimes more meaningful than tactical would be taking the three-month VIX. Volatility index and dividing it by the one month fix. So when that is high, like 1.25 or above, investors are like, I'm not concerned about volatility in the immediate future. I'm more concerned about it later on. But when that goes below one, that means the VIX is higher than the three-month VIX. So investors are more concerned about volatility now, which means they're more fearful. And when you have that set up, the market is often closer to a low.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, some of these indicators like the percentage of stocks above 10 day moving averages can also be used as momentum. So sometimes you can use breath as a momentum. So the other thing I mentioned was sentiment. So that basically is send me in a position, lump in positioning as well. So if you're watching Sinnim, it's a surveys, the investor's intelligence survey, Bull Bear and correction. And then you got AAII Bull Bear and Neutral. So those are sentiment indicators. What are they telling us? What investors are doing now? Hopefully, investors are saying, I mean, what investors are saying, right? Right. Not doing. Hopefully what they're doing is close to what they're saying. That's what sentiment implies. But then you overlay that and look at something like a book call.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's one of Bob Farrell's 10 rules to remember. You know, markets are stronger when they're broad and weaker when they're narrow. So again, ways to measure market breadth would be the advance of client line, as you just mentioned, also new 52-week highs, new 52-week lows. You could also use four-week lows, 24-week highs and lows, things like that. The other things would be diffusion indicators, like the percentage of stocks above moving averages. So if you have, I mean, you know, interestingly, if you have the S&P, you know, above a 200-day moving average yet, fewer than the 50% of the stocks are above it, it kind of tells you something about Breath of the Market. The market's stronger, but more stocks are below the moving averages. So, I mean, I think that's something to look at.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Generate overbought, oversold, but also involves things like breath, sentiment. I used to do a lot of credit market work too, you know, just looking at credit spreads and things like that.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, I'm sure it's changing as days go by, but for me, I mean, you know, using mathematics, quantitative methods to identify and spot trends and patterns in the financial markets. I guess that keeps it pretty simple So for me, it's really just trend following and pattern recognition. I will occasionally throw in second derivative type of indicators of price, like an RSI or relative strength indicator. That's right. Relative strength indicator.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so B of A, when we, you know, it's a combined hybrid role, right? So we service the global private clients, so the financial advisors are. You know, a big part of what we do. We talked to them a lot. I do a weekly webcast on Wednesdays for them, 12 noon. You know, you go on the road, you see offices, they ask you questions about markets, stocks, things like that, and you try to help them out as much as you possibly can. You know, there are some financial advisor teams that have me do webcasts for clients periodically, sometimes quarterly, sometimes monthly, and sometimes just internal, you know, just so they can, because one thing financial advisors say about the research that we put out on the technicals is that I may not be a technical analyst, but when I read B of A technical research reports, it gives me something intelligent to tell my clients, especially when times are tough.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, I have to put out a research note, and it's like, I can't just say, hey, buy this name here at this price. It may never hit it. So I just kind of say, hey, here's something that looks attractive technically. Our fundamental analyst has either a buy or sell on it, but technically it's attractive. I think it's a stock to buy. And, you know what? I would put the levels in there. If it hits these levels, then it becomes more time to buy. But either way, I'm building a position there based on my research.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Versus when compared to the absolute, meaning the market corrected a lot, but this stock is starting to lead. That tells me, you know what? Somebody may know something I don't. And I should, you know, maybe build a position in that name. So I think technicals are helpful with what and when. In fact, I'm probably more of a what to buy than a when to buy type of guy because.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because you can see a price pattern, you know, you can see a trend. And if a stock's building a big base and say the analysts are 90% sell ratings, And a lot of volume is surged down when the stock first declined to say $5 from 20, right? And then volume surged, and all of a sudden you're trading sideways for a long period of time on less volume. Your fundamental work's saying, hey, wait a second, no, this seems to be undervalued, or maybe the earnings are going to improve next quarter or something like that. That's something I would look at to potentially buy, even though technically speaking, it's not very strong, but it is building a big base. And if the relative chart, because I do absolute relative work, if the relative chart starts showing outperformance,”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I love the quote, but I don't necessarily believe it's entirely accurate. And here's why. I think technical goals can tell you what to buy as well.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As we all do. Right. So, yeah. I mean, it is a. Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, I know in another world, if I've ever moved on to somewhere else where I was, you know, doing something in a smaller shop, I'm sure I would put that fundamental hat on a little bit more often than I do now. But I don't have to now because I got a whole team fundamental analyst that we rely on.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I always say, hey, here's fundamental views different. Here's the research, don't have to look at that. So I respect the work that they do. And I try to enhance it as much as I possibly can. So for me, though, technicals are always, first and foremost, because that's my role. But obviously you want to own something that has some sort of intrinsic value. So I think that's the way I would probably think about it. Because I was always a Wim O'Neill fan. Right. And he just passed away a few months ago. So that was kind of sad because I have that book on my shelf, you know.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My primary work is technical. In terms of fundamental, I rely on our analyst ratings at the firm. I look and see. What stocks they like, what they don't like. And I look at the charts, and if it melds with what they're saying, I go with it, or if it looks like it's going to turn in favor of what they're saying, I go with it, and vice versa. Of course, there's other times where I have a really compelling chart, looks bullish, where they have honor to perform on it. I'll publish on it”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, level one was, I don't remember at that time, but all I do remember was the first half of the test. I felt like I failed it. So then during lunch, I guess I pulled a Harlem Globetrotters and regrouped and was able to get through the second part pretty easily. But no, that's what turned me on to. And, you know, we had a very fundamentally oriented research group, and I was a technical analyst. So he kind of. Brought me on as a hybrid analyst, and it was good. I mean, I learned a lot from when I worked there. You know, I covered, you know. The first stock, I guess, I was jointly covering with other analysts was J Bill, which was based in St. Petersburg. Know, so that was kind of fun. Yeah, so I got to learn a lot there.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I started off technical, which is unusual. Normally it's the other way around. It was my first research boss, his name was Stefan Haber he worked at William R. Huff He encouraged me to take the CFA exam. And I remember that first level was tough. I had no finance background. Accounting was very difficult.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The biggest thing we were worried about, we weren't worried in one regard because B of A did not have a dedicated technical analysis team. But at the same time, we were worried that B of A did not have a dedicated technical team. You know what I mean?”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so the biggest thing we were worried about, so I was working with Marianne Bartels at the time. Oh, sure. She was running the department.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, of course, you know, obviously, after that, you know, merging the two together, you know, the redundancies and things like that. And, you know, they took the opportunity to, you know, at least on teams that were big cut them essentially in half.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, you know, look at the news on the weekend that weekend, seeing everybody taking boxes out of Lehman and Barris Ernst. So it's like, yeah, it's a totally, it's very different.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, you know, I've worked at other firms where they had layoffs every few months. And we knew when they were coming. Just like, you know, you just do your job until you told you can't. And that's that.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, of course. I mean, it's just, I just remember because I was a little bit more seasoned. You know, I've been in the business 15, 16, 17. No, no, 14 years, 15 years when that hit. I just remember the weekend of the shotgun wedding in 2008. Just remember sitting down with some of my colleagues who were a lot younger, and they're like, what do we do? I'm like, well, you know what? You do your job until someone says you can't.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was very hard. So I'm like, let me get to somewhere more stable. Big Mother Merrill in 2007. Right. Stable. Perfect. Little did I know what was going to happen two years later.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, that's a great question. Let me just spend 30 seconds before answering that. I was lucky to have a dad in the business. So he didn't take me on, you know, initially. And I had to go through kind of like that McDonald's thing working in the fries at the boiler room kind of thing. And then in 1996, I actually worked for him for a little while. And we went down to a firm in Florida. Then, you know, I made friends with some people in the research department there. And that's when I started to focus on research. So first it was a hybrid technical fundamental. And then went to fundamental and then went back to technical full-time. So the reason why I went on to Merrill Lynch was, look, I was entrepreneurial. I work for small firms that we could have built into a big business, but the problem was we were charging four cents a share. And that make a long story short, everybody else was charging one or, you know, even less than that. And, you know, we weren't able to compete.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then the funny thing about it was when I see those movies, both Boiler and Manwolf of Wall Street, the script that they're reading from is exactly the script that they gave us.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Their office was a lot nicer than ours, but generally speaking, it was fairly accurate. And I remember when he was studying for the Series 7 in the movie, he's like, he's realizing, wait a second, they're doing things that are not right. And I'm sitting there like, man, I'm glad I'm not licensed yet because the last thing I want to do is, you know, get booted out of the business before I even start.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was a very interesting learning experience. I was only there for a year and a half because if you've seen the movie Boiler Room.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, my MCATs were bad, but I took them three times, but I managed to jump my score, right? So I still was able to get a few interviews at med school, but I kind of changed my mind on what I wanted to do. So after what I did was I was looking around for finance jobs. And obviously, you're not going to hire a pre-med biomajor, an English writing major. Right off the street, right? So I just answered that from the paper and guess where I wound up Wound out for the boiler room right across from Stratton O”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To be Yeah, so I went to Fairfield University undergrad and put it this way, it was right after 1987 crashed. I was there from 89 to 93, right? Right. Instead of pursuing business, I pursued pre med. And since my writing skills weren't all off the snuff, I just dove in, said, you know what, let me get a double major and do English writing. So I wanted to challenge myself. Improve my communication skills through the writing process. Long story short, get out of college. It was a tough time. It was the early 90s and it was hard to find jobs. I was not a good standardized test taker.”
2023-12-21 · Masters in Business · Stephen Suttmeier on Chart Portfolio of Global Markets · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source