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Sunil Paul

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2018-08-06
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2018-08-06
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  1. There's a lot of similarities. I don't mean to say that he's going to end up like cover jewels, but it's an interesting, but Howard Jews was creative and kind of like out there like that. But anyway, we'll see where that ends up. Anyway, Sneal, this is great talking to you. I expect you to write a second part to your scooter story, okay?

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. He reminds me of Howard Hughes more than anybody else. Everyone compares him to other, like Connist or Trump. I'm like, no, he's like, Howard Hughes. Remember, Howard Hughes did a lot of things in the aviation industry people don't understand. People focus on the last part of it is the crazy life, but not the first part.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. Totally. So I'm a fan of Tesla. I think there's evaluation question of whether or not they can succeed. But, you know, if they are able to ramp up production and I'll tell you one thing about Tesla that's interesting, very different than other electric car companies is simply by building out a significant charging network. And you can imagine in the future building out other infrastructure around autonomous. Like in other words, Having the ability to have very robust navigation in your car and know that in this particular, say, corridor, your car is going to be safe. That's very valuable, and it does start building a network effect that I think other OEMs will have a tough type matching.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. Did a work it on a platform in the ocean. Yeah, I mean, he's taken on categories that know common sense. Entrepreneur would go after. So a lot of respect for that. And he's just a human being. I just don't see how you can continue to chase so many new ideas and be successful, certainly not at all of them, but even to like it detracts from your core. And then tweet all night.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Well, I wrote a blog at the end of last year basically speculating that maybe last year was Pika Elon. Have tremendous respect for what he's been able to do. I mean,

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. I think you need to have the expertise in autonomous cars, but I don't think they need to build. I think it's a huge waste of capital because there's. Just a ton of capital going into building out the capacity and the technology. But if you have the demand, then you can sit there and dictate what the experience will be for a consumer all the way down to the sea cushion. Right.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. I I think the two companies that haven't yet kind of made their move Other navigation. I mean, they're already doing it and talking about doing it with public transit

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. They're wrong. Dilding demand is actually pretty hard. And so if one of these scooter companies can go out and build a lot of demand, I could see some of these other companies that suddenly realize, oh, wait a minute, the biggest question when we deploy our autonomous XYZ product. Is making sure people actually get in it.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. There's just so much capital going into it, and a lot of different companies they all think they're going to build their own demand.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. I think there might be some OEMs or some others because here's the thing if they go out and acquire a bunch of demand. Then one thing we didn't talk about is what happens with autonomy. I think generally speaking, the autonomous world is also going to be a kind of bloodbath or mess of financially. It's different. Everybody invested.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. No, I think it's one will emerge. It's going to be a bloodbath, and I think, frankly, they're most likely outcome to be acquired by someone, either by

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. In this kind of time frame. And that didn't pan out. And I think we make the same mistake in this category because we get used to the pace of innovation. Moore's law is, I think, the most interesting example Where it's clearly running out of steam, and maybe quantum computing can do it, but there's no guarantee it will. There's nothing sacred. And I think there's this quasi-religious view that it's going to just keep going and we're going to end up with jetpacks of computing. The odds are we're not going to end up with a jetpack of computing.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. Well, I think it's a fundamental mistake we make a lot, which is if you go back to the era of advances in car transportation and rocket transportation and all the rest, there were projections of 200 mile per hour freeways. And like literally rocket ships that were capable of going to the stars.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. I mean, I saw a demo of it. I mean, that was it a TED. I can't remember where anyway. I don't know. I don't know what to make of these things until they actually start.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. You just play it on the water. Whereas if you're going over a city or you're going over anywhere else on the land, you have to be very, very careful about where you land.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. They're choosing to do it over water, as I understand it Because of safety, it's easier to deal with the safety concerns.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. I think the jury's still out on that because of the technology base they're using lighter weight it kind of favors smaller number of passengers i don't think we're going to see you know big cargo plane kind of capacity

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. I have a place up in Sonoma to be able to get back and forth instead of an hour, turns it into 15 minutes. So they will be single.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. Yeah, so order of magnitude lower cost, at least potential, not necessarily actual cost. And then it's easier to fly autonomously through the air than it is on the ground. Right. And so I think those two factors, and frankly, capital helps

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. Well, I think So here's the case for ETOL. Basically, it's order of magnitude fewer moving parts than helicopter. So that makes them more maintainable, easier to manufacture. Why were you skeptical?

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. If you look at past transportation revolutions, Much, maybe most of the money has actually been made by through some kind of real estate transaction. In other words, when you get a new kind of transportation, real estate that today is very cheap suddenly becomes very valuable. And that story has been repeated over and over again. Railroads and their right of ways and streetcar suburbs and the suburbs of... Of the automobile area.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. Go away. No, no. I mean, interesting. So I think interesting opportunities around things like Rajas and Rethinking real estate.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. The city version. The regulatory is what everyone brings up, but I think we're going to work it out. We've got. There is existing regimes We might get it wrong here or there

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. Just walking, whereas an autonomous car, you're going to be able to watch a movie, you're going to be able to eat. It'll be more like being, um, A train A long distance train with car service and with food service and all the rest. So I think the whole dynamic around commuting is going to dramatically change over the next decade.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. That found that throughout human history, starting with hundred-gatherers People have not wanted to commute more than about half an hour Their place of work, and work could be where I'm going to go hunt for things or gather out and out in the wilderness. It's true for villages. And then once we got to modern transportation, the distance people were willing to go on a streetcar or in their own car. I think autonomous vehicles will break Briggetti's law because you're no longer just about the commute. And you're walking out to the place that you're going to go hunt, or you're going to go gather, or you're going to walk to whatever the small town or drive to your place where you make money. Just driving

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. Yeah, when you sit around look at community, it's insane. It's just insane. Even today, I was going to something I was going to drive my car and I was like, I'm not driving my car. I'm just going to take it. It was weird. I just, for some reason, more and more. And I'm someone who's had a car my whole life, but it's a weird, like I'm not a millennial. Like I have to take an Uber everywhere. But it's a really interesting shift. It's the same way I felt like I'm not going to have a phone in my house. I'm going to have a mobile phone.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. I also think the other dynamic that's going to happen is cities, towns that are kind of far away from the urban core are also going to see an increase in population for because of autonomous cars and telecommuting. Telecommuting continues to get better. It's already pretty good. A lot of people, remote work. But the combination of that and autonomous cars means that you can live an hour, two hours, maybe even three or four hours away from the place that you come in to interact face to face with people. And out there, it's going to be cheaper, right? I mean, if you go live in Reno or Grass Valley or Sacramento, you can still come into San Francisco to have your meetings for whatever a day or two.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  28. With the bigger ones, just through platooning, meaning just following very, very close to the vehicle in front of it. So that you can have that high density because when you're in the big thoroughfares, you want high density. Like a subway car is awesome. You get so many people packed in there, especially in Japan where you can. Know really cram

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  29. And maybe also individual size vehicles, because that's kind of what you need, right? Most trips are one person. So you can either on a very high throughput place, like a very busy street, Broadway, a main street, whatever. Can have a larger capacity vehicle. It can be autonomous. This is already happening in some limited areas in different cities and in Singapore and some airports. But I see that happening in the main thoroughfare and in the smaller areas, you can have an individual-sized vehicle, maybe two instead of three people, and it can actually connect up.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. But, like, too bad. But I think new extensions, things like frankly, high speed rail, we can talk about long. Long distance stuff in just a second, but it's not going to make as much sense because it's incredibly expensive for the infrastructure for this stuff. And as compared to just building roads or just building these sort of lighter weight infrastructure where you can have a flexible plate up top. And the autonomous cars, I think, are going to increasingly be autonomous shuttles, not

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. There's certain kinds of trends that's always going to be valuable. There's some cost, like we already built the Bart lines. We already built, there's no, like, it doesn't make any sense to rip all that stuff out.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. In any case. But there is this, but is there regulatory problems with all these new alternative transportation systems? Do you see that as being, like, because I feel like the apologies aren't very smart enough to understand where it's going, which would be a fully autonomous. City that doesn't have cars in it just doesn't have

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  33. Yeah, there's like a level of hysteria in San Francisco in particular about anything new. I mean, despite it being a town that, uh, You'd think would embrace new things. It's actually kind of conservative.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. I hope that some cities like most of the stories are about fighting about them, about the use of them, about them being on the streets in San Francisco when the scooters entered. People were putting excrement on them. I mean, now it's sort of calmed down, but that seems to be always how this stuff is greeted. Everyone sort of sees it as like the plague, essentially.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  35. Everybody's living. Yeah, the cities in particular, because that's where all this stuff's going to be deployed in the early days, that they require, if they're going to provide a permit for an autonomous fleet, that it has to be an electric fleet. And that is, yeah, I hope that there's some conversations going on. I hope that some cities...

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  36. The triple revolution that we have to get right in cities? And further away, too. But the Triple Revolution is basically autonomous vehicles, electrification of vehicles, and ride sharing or fleet operated vehicles We've got to get that right because specifically, if we don't get electrification of the vehicles, The fact that all of this transportation is going to become so cheap Going to mean we're going to have way more miles traveled. And if it's not electric, we're going to have a huge increase in emissions. So I'm a big advocate of cities requiring.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  37. They're coming. I'm with you on that. They're coming. They're They have to come. You know, if I was mayor of San Francisco, I would bar cars. I would just set the tone. I'd just say we're not having cars in five years. That's it.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  38. I hadn't even thought of this. I mean, you can imagine if it's operating at very slow speed and it's not the super sophisticated, fully autonomous is able to avoid all kinds of situations at high speed. It's moving at very slow speed. If it has a problem, it basically stops and maybe phones home. And asks for a human for final resolution of what it's supposed to do. So, you can imagine that kind of future so that you don't have the chargers. But honestly, that's a small thing. I think the big picture is we're going to end up in a world where it's much, much easier to move around in cities because of these short solutions or the last mile, last yard kind of solutions. Also because of autonomous vehicles, which Are coming. I mean, I know now there's kind of the common wisdom is oh, it's much further than we think

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  39. Have you seen those, right? Actually, it's a segue as well So I think we're going to end up with a system where the last mile in good weather. Is going to, you have lots of options, you'll be able to take a bike, power power assisted bike. It'll allow you to work even in hills and scooters and maybe other things as well.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  40. Do. We've got this huge revolution happening in transportation. It's awesome and amazing. All the things you're talking about because of electric motors and electrification as skateboards and feet and not feet, but shoes.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  41. Somewhat useful, it's pretty expensive, and obviously did not find it aside from mall cops. And tours from San Francisco. I think, well, first of all, I think...

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  42. I don't know. I got to tell you, my kids want to write these things. All right, we get back. I want to know where it's going to all go then. Where we're going to get to. Are we going to get to roller skates? Because Dara at code talked a little bit about that it was more than that. It was all kinds of transportation. So I'd love to get your thoughts on where that's going when we get back. We're here with Sunil Paul of Spring Ventures.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  43. Well, Lime got not clear what the financial deal was, but Uber has equity in Lime. And so to me, that says they're the most likely to get bought by Uber. The valuations for the big scooter companies are, I think, way too high for bird. Yeah, for bird, is way too high for Lyft. But there's a lot of other scooter companies and you're not really looking for the existing reach of the network. Yeah, because the founder keeps getting stupid.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  44. They both try to kind of lose their own numbers, but Liv's claim is that they're doing really well here in San Francisco. And in a few other cities.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  45. Cities having right to regulate what's going on on the sidewalk, but for things that are regulated by the state They're allowed

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  46. Yeah, interestingly, in California, it's actually a state law to enable electric skateboards that allowed that makes it legal for Electric scooters to be in the bike lane. I see. And on the sidewalk, actually. Oh, there's a whole other dynamic around.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  47. And then the bikers You can take over a parking space and that space for dozens and dozens of scooters and dockless bikes. And that's one car space that

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  48. So, I think regulators are going to respond differently. It's the sort of social experience is what enables it. Right. Like, yeah. And by the way, I think cities will end up having some little bit of middle ground. I mean, the right thing to do is to create areas for the scooters to be part.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  49. Trump actually has a pilot program with San Francisco And as you probably know, the Chinese bike sharing companies are all trying to expand internationally, including the US. I think part of what's going on with bike sharing and scooter sharing The regulators have seen this movie before just by reading the press of what's happened in China.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  50. That changes the dynamic tremendously. It's no longer just like getting a permit in San Francisco is going to be incredibly valuable. And that's not going to be, you're not going to get it based on the fact that you raised hundreds of millions of dollars.

    2018-08-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: Sidecar co-founder Sunil Paul · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT