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Sven Henrich

lines on the record: 65
first: 2022-07-06
most recent: 2022-07-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“More divided. That's not a positive thing. I don't think things would be as extreme if we didn't say the middle class shrinking decade after decade after decade. It's a challenge. So yeah, we keep it light, but that's the deal.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I try to look at the end of the day. What I try to do is I try to keep it real. We are in a complex world. I try to add some humor in it, but sometimes the humor just writes itself because I just need to comment on what people actually say or do versus what's actually happening. So it's kind of an ongoing comedy show. And you know what comedy is good for us? I think humor is helpful getting through complex times. But it also helps make what is said being whether it's being done. And in general, I am a bit, I guess woeful about how this has all been evolving over the years because people are getting hurt. This is, you know, this is we say it's made fun and giggles. It's not. Inflation right now is hurting a lot of people and this wealthy quality issue is strenuous because we're seeing it in politics now. The tensions are high and society gets ever more”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah. And obviously, the website is NorthmanTrader.com. I also have the Northcast Out, we'll try to explain charts, what I see in terms of markets, and of course the Twitter handle at the Northman Trader. I sprinkle sarcasm into sometimes that doesn't work because people don't get that it's sarcasm. I had some person attorney from Florida got upset with me yesterday about a little sarcastic tweet that happens. So sometimes it's lost in translation.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We either get cold rain or freezing the rain. That's where the wood shopping comes in because we got a nice wood burner got the axe out.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It helps me actually. The beauty for me is I can just step outside and I'm in nature. We're forced to stare at screens long enough as it is, right? So it's a nice outlet here. I love it. So wouldn't want to be anywhere else at this point. Although the winters are rough.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It goes back to this patients think I live here. I'll just put this out. I live here out in the countryside in England. It's absolutely lovely. And I love England, by the way. I just moved here a few years ago, eight, nine years ago. But it's an amazing place because everyone over time wanted to come here. The Romans did, the Anglo-Saxons, the Vikings, the Normans. And you get to see all these places that have been around for a very long time. And that kind of, I don't want to get too philosophical here, but it helps really keep the macro in perspective. Things change overall, but they will sustain.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But, you know, we're also creatures that want instant gratification, right? So we get trigger happy on the finger. That's one thing I learned over the years to just be a lot more patient. But at the same time, when a setup hits, fight for it too, you know, because things will be volatile. It's not like, you know, okay, thing, here you go. You got to be willing to sweat it out because that also happens at key points and be persistent but disciplined.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Patience scaling in strategy over time, 20,000 was the level I mentioned in early January as well. That was kind of a key support line as well. So now here we are. So it's part of a process. And I think long term, it's very positive for Bitcoin. Now, of course, if you, you know, bought at 50,000, 60,000 and you're writing this down, this is no fun, right? That's why I kind of stayed away from that psych hype at the time. By the way, just a general comment, I think, for anyone, whether you're a short-term trader or long-term trader or investor, the biggest skill I find that I continue to teach myself is patience. That's why, for example, if I were really patient, I just maybe trade to three times a year, wait like for the big confluence points to come together.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If I look at this, then I see a bear market. I mean, I see an asset bubble that's popping. I see business models getting crushed left, right, and center in the crypto space. I see the fluff coming out, which I think is a positive thing because once you had the creative destruction, then you can have that longer-term view in terms of what will maintain, what will be sustained. You heard Gary Gensloff in the SEC yesterday saying, considering Bitcoin a commodity, kind of singling it out, which is of interest as well. So looking, the Twitter handles Norseman Trader, Northman and Vester, but in terms of Bitcoin, I do see it as a longer-term hold for me. So that's why I outlined in January, I want to kind of use this year with the view that an asset bubble could be bursting. I want to use this year as kind of slow.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Overall risk. That's why it's important whether we are now in a structural bear market that lasts for a couple of years, in which the cases can happen, or we're coming out of this, and this will have been like a first half of the year scare because, and it's the other thing I've been pointing out for the last couple years, is the asset correlation is massively high between the S&P and Bitcoin in terms of the directional flow. In fact, in recent weeks, it got to like 95%. In my case in January was what's missing for Bitcoin is that regulatory framework because from a demand perspective, I think there's a lot of funds that are professional investors that want to get to Bitcoin, but they don't have the regulatory clarity. And they can't actually invest until they do have that regulatory clarity.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When the markets dropped, Bitcoin, third discharge, Michael sale, I talked about the 17,000. We dropped to 20,000. I said 17,000 is a major trend line there. Major, major support trend line. And that's the immediate risk. But as long as it holds, the trends intact. Guess what? We hit literally that weekend. We hit 17.5 tack the trend line and have bounced from there. Not saying anything is clear, but it's all part of a process to me. If we were to drop that trend line, boy, folks, things can get a lot uglier. Just be absolutely clear on that. And I said that's in January. You can make the case because there's a larger, larger macro trend line that points down to 6,000, 7,000. I'm not predicting anything. I'm just looking at the...”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you are in an asset bubble, you want to see how this all falls out, right? And we just saw that. We just saw this this year in January, my second discussion with Mike Obama. My first nipple at Bitcoin, when it had dropped, I think it was down below 30,000. So just a little nipple because I was still in the full cognition that we're still in an asset. And I pointed out the charts. Going back to Ed's question earlier about the relevance of technical charts. One of the things I always liked about Bitcoin, and I've said this for the last year and a half or so, that I like that it acts very technically and actually charted beautifully. And I've been pointing out Bitcoin on the Northcast for months and months when I see bullish signs, I point at the bullish signs, when I see the negatives, the bearish aspect of it, bear flags or whatever, it plays it. It plays it really nicely. In fact, this last few weeks.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tech bubble aspect came back in my mind. And Michael and I talked about the components. We had obviously stocks get completely obliterated in the wake of the tech bubble, including Amazon, including Apple. I mean, they dropped 80-90%. But this is the hindsight equation. Are you looking at business models that are sustainable or that have the potential to have a global dominance and footprint? And clearly, you know, in hindsight, we know the Apple to the Amazon were exactly that, whereby pets.com and all that stuff completely blew up. So then that became of interest to me because I said, okay, well, let's look at the space and what do I see as a winning business model long term in a construct. And that's where”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can't ban it. I mean, they can make it difficult, absolutely, but no, they can't shut it down. But then at the same time, I saw, as you know, it's talking about this massive asset bubble. So I saw all this other stuff coming about that reminded me very much of the 2000 tech bubble, the fluff, you know, the over-excitement, the emotions along with it, the recklessness in some cases in terms of behavior. You know, as you know, we got spammed to hell with bots and everything else. These are kind of all the negative components. So in terms of an asset bubble, I was very concerned that everything would blow up in that sense. And I started talking to Michael Saylor last year. I had three discussions with him. The first one, you know, I was kind of coming from the point of, okay, let me try to poke holes on the whole thing. And doing that discussion, this 2000...”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These guys are all a monetary, the lesser regional dictatorship. They have complete control over the monetary system. So why would they actually allow this to happen? And maybe with regulation together, they would squash the whole thing, right? And then, of course, we drop what from 17,000, 20,000 to 3,500. And that was the first kind of the big pain wave. But then I also looked at it from the human component in terms of where you actually see development happening. It's actually working from a technical perspective. It is very clearly defined. And you see people like Jack, former CEO of Twitter, getting heavily involved. And they're smart people and they're doing a lot of things around. Then the regulatory path started evolving a bit where I started realizing, you know what, they can't shut it down.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As you said at the outset, Now look, for me it was an evolution as well. Part of it, part of my capitulation process was my wife kept beating me up over it. She's been a long-term bull on Bitcoin. To me, analytically, at the beginning, obviously I saw the run up in 2017, 2000 collapse, looking at the technology. It wasn't clear to me that central banks would actually ever allow it in terms of being. Yeah.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Drop below or what have a temporarily, but markets really respect us as well. And as we got into November, December, the S&P was screaming against a long-term trend. The NICE did as well, and it just kept stopping there, like every time it ding did, and then Waldo Fit kept printing. That correlation was there. So every time it ding, it was definitely worth an effort to get a sellout. And we got these occasional drops. You know, they weren't very dramatic. But then once the trend broke, all hell broke loose, right? That's why it's an art form, I would say, to mix technical analysis with what's going on on the macro front and what the trends are, and then present a comprehensive picture of how you want to approach this from a trading perspective.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a tool and we got to learn how to use the tool. And keep in mind, banks use technical analysis. They have whole teams of technical analysts. They're basing on all this as well. Some may call it a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it's not. I mean, yes, a lot of people are looking at different things, but it makes sense because the market is sensitive to it and is reactive to it. And our job is to find out where those points are and then use those points to develop a positive risk reward entry point. And a final point on this, and I freely admit this when you're in a heavy, heavy printing environment like we were last year, the cell signals often get washed away. It's very tricky. But then it comes back down to the simplest things. And trend lines, for example, are very powerful. Yeah, you can get a spike over. You can get a”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not a guarantee. You just got to be aware where the control pivots are and then figure out if that is a trade worth taking from a risk reward perspective, you know, stop management and all that. Not financial advice.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Support. So is that to say a guarantee that NICE does not drop lower? No, and I pointed this out on Twitter. It is a lower gap. This area doesn't hold. But I also said this is an area of confluence that will be of interest for bulls to take a major stand at because it had all these areas together. And guess what? It did. I keep tracking that chart. It just bounced right off there like a rocket. Technical analysis absolutely matters. Now to be fair, what we see when all these interventions over the years, I've come to realize that the extremes become ever more extreme to the upside as well as to the downside. When you have too much fluff in the system, the down moves can be absolutely awespiring. And there will be times when technical analysis also gets blown out. It's not a hot, as I said.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I gave you one example. This is really recent. This was here in June 16th, 17th. I posted this chart on Twitter about the broad and NICE NYSE index. One of the most powerful tools to me in technical analysis is confluence, where, okay, there's not one particular point that on a chart that's of interest, but rather it's multiple things happening at the same time, which I found fascinating and nicely specifically, it was the weekly 200 MA. It was the February 2020 highs, and it was the 38 to 5. And they were all in the same zone. To me just screamed confluence.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On the charts, on the signals, on the positioning. It's a whole heap of tools. And you can make this really complicated, which I don't like. I'd like to actually keep it very simple. KISS, keep it simple, stupid. That's one of my wife's lines. And she's been just marvelous. And I can go through all kinds of tools, which we don't need to go through. But I'm saying when the search is defined, what the market deems relevant. It keeps us honest in that sense because we may all have opinions and we may have biases and we want this to go to a million and this to drop 100%. This is not realistic, but it helps us keep us honest in the sense that we can say, look, we can debate all day long. Why? But it is relevant to the market. And if it's relevant to the market, it has to be relevant to me as someone's trying to position for a profitable trade. And it's going back to Ed's question specific.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so first to Ed's question. I find technical analysis to this day to be incredibly helpful. I mean, look, maybe mixing the answer with the other question you had about technical analysis in general. Technical analysis is not a guarantee. It's not a tool that guarantees you anything. You can still be taken out positions. And that's why people sometimes call it voodoo or squiggly lines and this, that, and the other. Well, technical analysis to me anyway is we're all in the position of great uncertainty. Anything can happen at any time, but it helps us identify a positive risk reward. For example, do I want to continue pressing long here in this technical setup?”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now we've dropped over 30% on small calves, Nasdaq. And you know if it wasn't for some of the specific stocks, especially energy holding things up because that's where you're seeing gains, that actually underneath the damage is a lot more pervasive. So to me, the notion that all this is consequence free and we can have kind of a soft landing here with rates staying as high as they are to me is a fantasy construct. something needs to give very shortly Going to be a show to remember”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There is pain out there, and that's why I was saying, I think maybe, and this is the worry I have, is the Fed, again, making a policy mistake by underestimating how much pain there actually is out there. And we see that kind of with the savings rate as well. This is one of the things that always irk me with central bankers. This sheer leading. Right up until the bitter end. Remember Bernansky 2008. There is no sign of a recession. Subprime is contained, you know, before blowing up in everybody's face. And then he got renominated as the hero, right? Because he intervened. And then we saw this last year again. With every one of these guys bombarding markets all year long saying inflation is transitory. I mean, they literally promoted this risk on environment. And the S&P was just a tracker of the Fed balance sheet.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Comes back to leverage. I mean, look at margin debt last year. I mean, it just blew higher, far beyond what we saw in 2000 or during the housing bubble. I mean, it's absolutely massive leveraging on the side of retail, for example. The one stat that just blew my mind last year was that last year alone more money flowed into stocks from retail than in the previous two decades combined. That's an insane amount of money, right? And so did they all sell the top and living at the beach? I don't think so. Right. All right.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Major disaster, yeah. So now what I'm saying is, okay, well, you know, look at the arcs of the world. I mean, you know, Facebook, forget arc, these are major fang stalwarts of the bull market, Netflix completely destroyed Facebook. And you know that so many funds were highly exposed to this. Where's the drama? Where's my big VIC spike? What I have been seeing this year is the SP makes lower lows and the VICs makes lower highs.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Traditionally, I've been known sometimes to be a bear. Traditionally, I would say, you know, this is the perfect environment for something to blow up and get really ugly. But it's so calm. It's so, you know, steady in traditional markets.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We have central banks fighting for control, trying to get a hold of the narrative in an inflation. Part of it may just simply be public posturing. The concern is that indeed there are going to break something. And maybe on that note, I should say just a personal observation here. Given the amount of carnage that we've seen in not only indexes, but specifically in stocks, where we've seen stocks dropping 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 percent, I'm actually surprised we haven't seen a major blow up yet by anyone.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People betting against the power of central banks, bank of Japan and they do have the ability to create money out of nothing, right? They have an unlimited supply. So I think that a lot of people scared that if they're going to try this again, betting against the Bank of Japan, they're going to get a railroad again. Yes. So basically what I'm saying is there's risk in the system and everything.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“May have peaked, which I don't know if I'm correct, and we're dropping lower analysis and we're getting support from inflation data in terms of new CPI PPI reports coming in July and August, then that actually takes pressure off the Bank of Japan. You heard the term widowmaker, right?”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the sense that the entire globe is moving towards tightening, obviously their policy is completely out of sync with that and now obviously requires more and more intervention of questions how long they can keep this up. And that's the problem with permanent intervention. creating a financial system that's disconnected from fundamentals in a big, big, big way. Japan Koroda, they've done nothing but print for years and years. So I think right now they are very desperate. What you don't want to see actually is them losing control because I think that could break something globally. That's clearly a risk factor, right? Because that would push yields higher all over the place if Japan lost control. So I think this timing now between the summer and into the fall is very critical because if I'm correct in saying that the 10-year”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“First of all, we've seen over the last few years several times where central banks were polar opposite in terms of policy. And we had that in 2017-18 where the Fed was raising rates and reducing their balance sheet while the ECP kept printing. And Japan kept renting and they kept right negative, right? So that's not unusual. What then obviously changed the equation was you saw that with overnight repo, overnight rates also jumped in the US and all of a sudden they brought this whole repo program in to keep things under control. Maybe Japan is kind of in that situation now.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because again, positioning negativity and relief, frankly, because That then says the worst is over. I think we're just going to need to be cognizant that things can get a lot more violent, not only to the downside, but also to the upside, which I'm kind of making the spare market rally case.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And have to fit me somewhere in the middle. So instead of a 3.8% fit funds, right, maybe it'll stop at 2.5, 2.6, 2.7. And that's it. And that's the end of the tightening cycle. So I'm wondering, as I'm watching this now, and Jen, you're having it reversed again, it has the tightening cycle from a market perspective already peaked as the market is starting to price in a recession risk coming. And then that's the pivot, but we won't realize it until after the fact. It's just into here and now you can make observations. All I said is, you know, if they can't get that done and the tenure keeps flying higher, we're going to keep making new lows on markets. If the tightening cycle has peaked and the 10 years now going to break its uptrend pattern, you're going to have a massive risk on asset rally.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not handle higher rates. 3.2%, by the way, was stopped in December of 2018. In the fall of 2018, 10 years hit 3.2%. Markets fell apart. Fed flip-flop. That was the end of it. That was with H$9 trillion of less debt. So we cannot be in a situation where 10-year continues to hover above 3.2% for an extended period of time. So if they want to really avoid a severe recession in a soft landing, the 10-year must come down and must come below 3%. And then this was going back to my early January concept. If they wanted to just job on the market, let the market tight, let them market overtighten as it now has. And then they come, then see the 10-year reverse.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That was the point when we saw the market rally in May, right? It had made a new low. Then we saw the 10-year retreat market rally. Then what happened in June is the CPI numbers came out, 10-year freaked out, made new highs, went to 3.5% market lows. I'm just making a technical comment here is when you have a technical pattern play out like we had that inverse go from 1.5 to 3.2%, the pattern has plate. And then you wait and you look, okay, let's see if we can get a new pattern. Now we have a new pattern because we're building this really tight rising wedge on the 10-year and the 3.5 that it hit in June hit the top of the trend line. Now we're versed. And guess what? We're seeing a rally in equity market. So that chart is super important conceptually because it goes to what I said at the beginning. This dead-laden system can”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like we've never seen before in terms of velocity at all. Last year I had this chart out. You may recall this inverse pattern. It was like in October was 1.5%. I had an inverse at a technical target. I got to 3.2%, hit it on the nose, then retreated.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if you're all of a sudden, you're paying a lot more to finance your projects, you're not going to take that risk. So they're looking and staring at a complete collapse there as well. How is that helping the consumer, right? The upside to this, it could make things again more affordable and to get some sort of balance. The big issue is what you raised, which is the speed, the velocity of what has happened with yields. So I want to raise that issue real quick because I think that's really important. 10-year yield to me is one of the most important charts out there along with the dollar and the junk yields, if you will, junk JNK. It's junk is an interesting chart. That chart actually is on a point where you would intervene typically. In fact, maybe the whole system right now is we're in a situation where typically they would intervene to save everything, but now they can't. But the 10-year yield, that flew higher this year.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Problem when you've built an everything bubble, right? Not only a bubble in stocks, crypto, you can argue, but in bonds. We clearly had a bond bubble, but also in real estate. This is why I was so critical of the Fed, because they bought like 1.1.9 trillion dollars in mortgage-backed securities into a red hot housing market. policy that was designed to bail the housing market out in a low supply type of environment. The housing market clearly can't handle higher rates either. It just can't. I mean, if you got a 30-year mortgage at 2.5%, great, you know, but now you're looking at five and a half, what six? It's just going to kill demand and it's going to kill the construction side of it because if you don't have demand, then you're not going to invest.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, first of all, let me say since a global financial crisis, we've all come to, we've been trained to expect bear markets to only last at the most six to eight weeks before the next round of intervention comes in, right? This one's been dragging on, actually, started in November. That's when everything peaked. The S&P peaked in January, but small caps. Everything else peaked in November, and it's just been going on. So we're already in the most extensive bear market that we've seen. since the global financial crisis, but bear markets can also last for years. We've not been there. And I think the question here for us now is, okay, going into the second half of the year, if we do see improvement in inflation, can we actually get out of this phase here now? Or is there the big second shoe to drop to your point, real estate?”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rate cuts for next year. So while the Fed is talking about 3.8%, the market's always saying this is a short term thing. So you got to be mindful of that as well. How that plays in terms of timing, nobody knows.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People get really bearish. In fact, the AII bull bear ratio right now is some of the worst since the 90s. It's worse than the global financial crisis. It's worse than it was during the 2000 tech bubble burst. So I think people are not prepared if there's any good news coming in the sense of positioning and how vicious actually a comeback rally may be. And then all of a sudden it just disappears, right? Because then you're looking next year at massive retrace numbers in terms of the inflationary component. And that gives them a room to basically stop and then basically if you have some goodness with COVID, in terms of like today, China announced easing restrictions again, supply chain easing. And then you can go back to some sort of normal and keep in mind the market is already pricing.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That front on a commodity side, look at copper, massive bear market already, aluminum, lumber, all these kind of commodities. They're already dropping hard big time. So if we're looking at data this summer, I think we need to keep an open mind in terms of how this can evolve because there's obviously the consumer part of inflation, but then there's also the core inflation, what the FIT looks at. And so you get one headline or Russia, Ukraine, and then it's over. And then given how positioning is at the moment, which is some of the most negative I've ever seen, because people are, I mean, Jesus, I mean, that happens at every bottom, right?”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So why are you not critical of them raising rates? I'm not critical of them raising rates. I'm just trying to be realistic about what this implies to the debt construct in the economy that has been made so dependent on asset price inflation when it doesn't have asset price deflation. So the short answer is I guess it depends on how inflation evolves. I think we're all looking at the negative side maybe we can also look at what a potential positive could be. If energy and food price inflation are so tight to Russia, Ukraine and not being a geopolitical event, what if that actually solves itself? I know that seems completely unrealistic at the moment, but let's say they do come to a political situation. And I can come up with a scenario where they might have, then all of a sudden inflation is going to collapse.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is the interesting part because I think we all need to be just humble understanding that this is all a really unique set of circumstance and I don't think anybody has a clue how this can play out. I mean, the standard script is, yeah, we go into recession, now going to go back to printing because they have to, as I mentioned, over $30 trillion in debt. Actually, Loss General had a piece out this weekend, I think, that the cost of servicing the US debt has already increased by 30% in the last year. And that's with that doesn't even account for the latest rate hike. Okay, it's just the minuteness of the rate hikes and the financing conditions. Again, if you go to 3.8%, what are we talking about? On the one hand, they say, you know, the debt is not sustainable, both Yellen and Hal have been saying this for years. On the other hand, they put in the conditions where that continues. And so now this, by the way, you know.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They didn't help you in the sense that, okay, they helped you while the crisis was going on. So it kept you afloat. Worst case, maybe you got caught up in the bubble and put it in some coin somewhere. That's just reality, right? So now inflation is going to continue on the food and energy front until we see some sort of solution with Russia, Ukraine. And if the Fed is not really careful here by wanting to continue to raise rates, then they're going to break something. Yes, they're going to put us in a major recession because they're making everything else more expensive, right? They're making the...”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of the housing market. And then thanks. Now they got inflation. You know, if you're in the bottom 50%, inflation food and energy is hurting you more than someone that's in the top tier income. Yeah, higher gas prices. Okay, I've paid more in my tank. I don't care, right? It's just a minute part of my monthly expenditure flow, right? That's unfortunately the reality of what's been happening. And then now with housing, rent prices have been obviously screaming up as well. So you just get beaten down more and more if you're in the bottom 50%. And those two stimulus checks.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so this is the perversity of this all right now. So if it's not impacting and no benefit to the consumer, then why are you now smacking everyone and housing and everything else? Because let's face it, it's going back to this wealth inequality piece. The bottom 50% did not benefit from all that money printed in the run-up of asset price. If you don't own assets, you don't see asset price appreciation. You don't. And so this Druken Miller talked about this last year as well in terms of how they really just benefiting the upper tier of society, especially the top 10%. And we had it with data, you can say it, you know, 89% stocks or 89% of stocks owned by the top 10%, it's a no-brainer. So they really benefited from this. And the bottom 50% also got hurt because they were increasingly priced out.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Food price inflation component. And this is where the actual narrative doesn't make sense. And you actually heard Powell admit to that last week because he was challenged on this. What we do in terms of rate hikes is not going to impact energy or food prices at all.”
2022-07-06 · We Study Billionaires · BTC085: Sven Henrich on the Central Banker's Dilemma (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT