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T Boone Pickens

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2016-04-24
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2016-04-24
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  1. That were that far along with our show, but it's all because of the help from our audience, and we cannot thank you guys enough for everything that you've done to help promote our show, help bring it up in the rankings. I know we've been as high as in the top 10 in the world for business podcasts, and that's just so humbling. I can't even tell you how humbled I am just stating that. That's just crazy. And we just really appreciate our audience and we just want you guys to know that. So thanks for listening to this episode, and we'll see you guys next week.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. All right, guys, so that's all we have for you this week. We enjoy doing the review of the book. The first billion is the hardest. If you guys want to get our executive summary, sign up on our email list. If you want to listen to this book for free, go to our website and click on any of the links that we have for Audibles. And if you do that, the first book that you sign up for through Audibles will be completely free. And you can take that as a gift from Stig and I. The Audible service is through Amazon. So if you can find a book on Amazon that's in the Audible format, which is pretty easy to do, you have access to probably the biggest library of audiobooks on the entire planet. We use Audibles for every single book that we use, and we highly endorse that for people to really kind of continue to grow their knowledge. If you guys are leaving us a review on iTunes or Stitcher or wherever you guys are listening to the show, Stig and I just want to say thank you so much. We're fastly approaching 100 episodes and it's kind of mind-blowing and eye-opening to us.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. I think they can protect that margin because of the psychology that's built into it. That's a competitive advantage. So if you see that competitive advantage is an enduring one, and Warren Buffett talks a lot about this, this enduring competitive advantage, that's something worth paying maybe a premium for, and that's completely in the eye of the beholder. And that could change. There could be something revolutionary that kind of comes along that would change it that maybe you all start using Yahoo. I don't know what that could possibly be. I can't quantify that. And that's where you really kind of know you have something is when you literally can't come up with a quantification on how something could be destroyed or it could be really kind of challenged in a competitive market. But I think that that last part is very important when you're talking about the price and the value that you think something's worth. You have to tie in this qualitative piece into the quantitative analysis. All right. So the next question that we have, this will be the last one that we did.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. That act is a branding situation that has an enormous competitive advantage that has been ingrained and indoctrinated into the world's culture of how they use the internet. That is something that is enormously difficult to overcome. That is a competitive advantage. So for me, I'm willing to pay assuming that they make a lot of profit on that, which they do. I want to say Google's margins are 20%, maybe even higher, 25% somewhere around there. Those are huge margins. Typically, if a company's doing really well, they'll have 10% margins. If you're in like a competitive industry like the defense industry, maybe 5% to 7% margins. So those margins, when you make a dollar and you're able to keep 30 cents of it, that's a very big margin. And so I'm willing to pay more and pay a higher premium on those earnings for a company like that. And they can protect the margin. That's the important part.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. So, I have one final follow up point to what Sting and I were talking about as far as the valuation. When you talk about a valuation on a company, you're talking about a multiple that you're paying on the earnings. example that I provided with a hundred dollar company trading on the stock market and it has $10 of earnings you're trading in a multiple of 10 it will take you 10 years to get back the principle that you initially invested through the earnings itself now where this conversation gets really interesting and where people really need to understand how valuations work it really comes down to the competitive nature and the competitive advantage of the business so let me take an example of Google so when you look at Google they have a huge competitive advantage just in the fact that when you go on the internet what do you type almost out of just sheer habit when you log on to any internet browser you type in google.com because you're going to search for something

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. What those key gauges are for yourself as an investor. Stig and I came up with a checklist that you can download if you go to buffetsbooks.com or you go to the investors podcast. We have little pop-ups and stuff for you to download this checklist. But on that checklist, we basically laid out what we thought some of those key gauges were and some of those critical variables that you really have to be able to continue to watch in order to know that your company is on track and flying in the right direction. So it's kind of a long response and I apologize if you didn't like the analogy. I think that it makes sense from my vantage point based on my background, but I can't give you just one metric. But if I was going to tell you one thing that's really, really important, it's the earnings on the company.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. Really key metrics that I would say are those gauges that you've got to be looking at. One of the most important ones is the earnings, the EPS, the earnings per share. Another one that uses the EPS, the earnings per share, is the PE ratio. The E in the PE ratio is the earnings. The P is the price that you're currently paying for that exact point in time. So what you're doing is you're comparing, okay, what is somebody on the market offering as a price to buy this stock? And then how much profit or earnings are there in order to own it? So let's say I paid $100 for a company that was earning $10. So I could expect a 10% return on that. My PE would be a 10, because the price is 100 divided by 10 is the earnings. Those are just two small metrics that you're looking at when you're assessing the value of a company. So as you go further, you got to determine

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  8. Shields your ability to see outside of the cockpit. All you can see are your gauges. And this is kind of an intimidating poor. Say my altimeter, I'm supposed to be flying at a thousand feet because of the obstacles on the ground. And that would be something that I would have done in my flight planning before I left. I'd be looking at that and saying, okay, I've got to fly at a thousand feet to miss every obstacle. And that's just an example. So as I'm flying along and I look at my altimeter, I might see that it's at 1,050. So I'm a little high. I need to come down. So I adjust the stick to move down a little bit. But now I got to look at all the other gauges because maybe my airspeed's getting slow and I might start stalling. Okay, so I'm looking at all these different gauges and I'm constantly going through them to see the changes and I'm making small adjustments to the controls in order to try to keep this thing just afloat. Investing in companies in my opinion is the exact same thing. You have to constantly look at all these different gauges in order to know how something's performing and how it's getting to an end state that you want to achieve. So when you look at a company, there's some real...

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. So, the best analogy, and Wesley, this is a great question. We hear this one a lot, and I love the fact that you're digging into business as a doctor. That's pretty cool. So I used to fly helicopters. I've mentioned this a couple times on the show. So the Apache helicopter, when you go in and you sit in this helicopter, there are so many buttons and knobs and you push the wrong thing and you might shoot a missile and you got all sorts of things happening inside of this cockpit. And it'd be kind of like asking me to sit down in that helicopter and I have to fly it, but I can only look at one gauge. And I've got to, you know, I can't look outside. I can only look at one gauge and I've got to fly it. And I tell you, I would never take that on. And I'll talk a little bit more with this analogy. So when you first start learning how to fly, you do a thing called instruments. And when you're instrument flying, what you do is you wear it on your helmet, you put a visor down, and the visor...

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. There's a lot of companies out there where I'd rather take the dividend because I don't think their ability to actually compound their returns are that good. And so that's where you might want to prefer a dividend over a share buyback.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. So, the way you really have to look at it when the company is doing it is you got to look at it in the same context, would I be buying backstock? So let's fast forward and say we just had a major drawdown in the US equity market, and it was offering much lower prices. If I saw a company buying back their stock and they were safe and they had enough money in their war chest to weather the downturn and the credit contraction, if they were in that position they're buying back stock, I see that as a really good thing because they're basically compounding for me by using that as retained earnings and they're doing it in a tax advantageous way whenever they're buying backstock opposed to issuing dividends to me as a shareholder. That's one of the reasons why Warren Buffett doesn't pay a dividend is because of the tax disadvantages and his ability to compound the money. So those are some of the key variables as far as I'm concerned whenever I'm looking at a dividend versus a stock repurchase.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. So, James, this is a fantastic question. I think it's a really kind of simple response for share buybacks. Look at it the same exact way of how you would buy stock yourself. So right now, when you look at the market, it's highly priced than the US, at least the U.S. equity market. Probably about a 4% return at current market prices. So if a company's buying back their stock at that point in time and they're not doing other things with the money, maybe for me, I'd be investing in maybe a new product, R&D, something like that that's going to give me a bigger return in the long run than 4%. I think that that's a better use of your money. Now, the company might not have a product to produce. There might be other implications, and that's where you really got to do your homework and kind of dig in and see why they're doing the stock purchase. But for the most part, if you're buying right now and you're a large cap company in the US, you're going to get a 4% return with over the next 10 years annually at the current market price.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. First person in the world But that's our review for the book. We also have an executive summary of this book that kind of goes chapter by chapter and kind of outlines everything that's in it. So if you guys want to read the executive summary and just kind of skim through it and see what the book's all about, we send that out to...

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. So, one of the fun things about having a podcast and kind of having a blog is we can float ideas out to the audience and then you guys go in there and comment and tell him why he's wrong. That's what Stig's wanting you to do read his blog post and maybe help him shape this thesis that he has and what he's trying to develop. With all of that said, that's our long review of T-Boon's book, The First Billion is the Hardest. Stig's going to probably, you know, title his first trillion's the hardest someday

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  15. So I'm curious, what would be the timeframe that you expect it to get to that price? Do you have any estimate on how long it would take to get to $76?

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  16. As an investor, when you're looking at this, is the trend and the kind of the delta and the change as it occurs so that you don't get left in the dust because eventually I think a lot of this stuff is going to kind of take hold, but it's going to be decades from now. And you kind of know when that pendulum is starting to swing the other way. And the only way you can do that is really kind of look at the big picture, look at those percentages and how they're shifting from maybe gas to electricity to whatever okay that's for you to really kind of do your research and your homework. But you got to look at that trend and the direction that it's going. And I think that's what Stig's really getting at with his comments.

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  17. So, I think Stick's point, and he's not coming out and directly saying this, but I think what Stig's trying to say is next time you open up Bloomberg.com or you're reading the Wall Street Journal and you read some swoopy article about how Elon Musk is going to change the world with energy and how it's all going to be different in a year from now or three years from now. Don't buy into the hype. And I would agree with that. I think that it's something that catches a person's attention because it's something new and it's something that's changing the world and it is, but it's not going to do it at the pace that I think some people think that it's going to occur, especially in developing countries. And you go over to China and some other places. That is not going to happen quickly. That's a change in mindset and culture. Here in the US, we're wanting to quickly adapt this and move in a different direction. But I can tell you, I think in the rest of the world, it's not as nearly guarded as something that has to happen quickly or soon. So the important thing.

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  18. That's one of the other things that Musk has taken on with these battery storage capacitors, basically, where he stores this energy when it's in high demand or whenever it's cheaply being produced. You can actually, the thing that he's designing is a large battery power unit that you would put into your house that you could then store and you could draw and charge that thing whenever the energy costs are cheaper and you could then draw on it whenever the energy costs are more expensive. So it's interesting that he's trying to tackle these problems that Stick's talking about. The issue is really how do you go about distributing these to a very large audience so that it actually starts having an impact around the world where he's nowhere close to that at this point.

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  19. And stig what you're saying is that under the current infrastructure, it can't take place. But we could, as a world, start developing more infrastructure in order to handle those demands if that would be something we try to move towards. It just wouldn't happen quickly is what you're really saying, correct?

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. And marketing campaign than other people out there. But he's the guy who's really trying to make that happen. And you can see that it's really paying off for him because he's bridging that gap. But I'm sorry to interrupt and keep rolling.

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  21. Yeah, so I think that the point that you're talking about is one of the reasons why Elon Musk has been able to really kind of take the energy market by storm is because what you just said as far as oil being different than electric energy in a different form of how you can kind of convert that and transportation really being rely on oil because it's portable and it can kind of move with the vehicle. That's where Elon Musk has really said, you know what? You're right, but Let me tackle that problem and try to make it so that electricity can be transportable and go on the move. And that's where he's placing all his emphasis and really his hardcore technology and his technological development of the products that he's designing is so that electricity can be portable and try to bridge that gap. And you don't really see other people going at it as hard as Elon Musk. Maybe he just has a better brand.

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  22. The timing of when he stood up this BP Capital Management as being right in that ripping zone of easy performance. So that's my opinion. And then when you're charging 20% fees on every profit that you make, I mean, it's a little hard not to make money when you have that capital structure and you got a bunch of millionaire friends. That's my impression. I really hope that I'm not being oversimplistic here. And I'm sure that I am. So in the last part of the book, and I like this, I really like the fact that he brought this up in the book. He talks about energy independence. So Stig's going to talk a little bit about some of these comments here.

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  23. Whenever I look at how commodity cycles, particularly in oil, go, as far as the waves and the dips and the highs on it, when you look back, when he was in the commodity business, he was in the boom time of oil. When you look at the housing crisis and all that stuff, oil really did well from that time frame from like 2000, call it 1, 2, to up until 2008. Please don't take this out of context like I'm implying that that's what Boone Pickens was because he is very accomplished as a manager in the oil sector before all this happened. But I'm just saying his timing was amazing. Now, whenever we come out of this contraction that I believe that we're approaching right now, let's say in about a year, two years from now, I feel like oil will do just phenomenal, again, for another five to seven year tear. And so I just kind of see.

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  24. Right now and trading BP Cow. He'd be getting crushed, absolutely crushed. So do you agree with that analysis that do you think it was a little bit of luck

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  25. So I had the exact same experience. I was really listening to that part because when he gets into how I fundamentally look at creating oil futures, I mean, for me, that's really what I'm wanting to know and hear is his thought process. But you know what? I took away from it. He just kept bringing up the weather the whole time. He just kept talking about how when the weather is bad and the weather is good, then the price is going to move because you're going to have a draw and you're going to have an oversupplier under supply. And I'm thinking that's a short-term kind of thing. Like that's a quarter kind of trade, not a five-year play. And then like in the same breath, he turns around and says, I hold and I let my gains run for five years. And I'm thinking, this does not make sense. My impression of his BP capital management portion was just he hit the market at the right time. That was the way I took it. I was like, he hit the market at the right time and just really, if he was in the market.

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  26. I was going to say, and who am I to say anything, especially when you're dealing with a guy who's as accomplished in oil as much as him? But I think the thing that he's missing is he's not understanding the correlation and the relationship between currencies and commodities. I really don't think he gets that based on his recommendations and his comments in the past year. Now, I could be completely wrong, and that might be really egotistic for me to say that, but that's where I think he's making the mistake. So I'm curious to hear Stig's thoughts on this.

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  27. Really, kind of a mash of the years. It's probably $2 billion. His net worth is around a billion, maybe a little shy of that right now. So he made his money and he did it through futures, and he did it in the oil industry. Now, what I find really interesting is when you've listened to him in the news recently, and I'm talking in the last year, you go back to the start of 2015, kind of that first quarter, second quarter, when oil was really getting punished, and Boone Pickens was on every national financial news network saying oil's going to be $70 by the end of the year. Oil's going to be $70 by the end of the year. Then when you get into the really deep, disgusting part of this oil glut that's been happening, when oil got into like the $30 range, he was still singing the tune. Oil's going to be $70 by the end of the year. And he has been so far off the mark with this. I mean, not even close to being on the mark with this, that it's not even funny.

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  28. Yeah, he was like, he was really old at this point. So he's this old dude who's, you know, this oil tycoon just sitting in the room taking this test with these 20 somethings and could not pass it. So interesting start to his career at BP Capital Management did extraordinarily well as a futures trader. Now here's where I find this really interesting. So he started the company in 1997, 2006. So fast forwarding almost a decade, he earned $990 million from his equity in the two funds and $120 million from his share of the 20% fees applied to the funds profits. So, I mean, he made a billion dollars is what it comes out to be. And his net worth right now is about a billion, and he's given away a lot. I want to say $900 million or something. Hold on here. I got the number. Yeah, it's close to, I want to say almost a billion dollars is what he's given away. So what he's

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  29. Yeah, so he took it through. I think he passed on the third time of taking this commodities test that was required for him to get licensed. And I love the fact that he told this in the book because to be honest with you, I might have left that out of my book. But I was really impressed that he told the story. I think that, you know, for how much of the other parts of the book that I thought were egotistical, I was happy that he left that in there because it was a funny story and I think that it was, you know, it made him seem human, you know, you know, in the book he talks about the same person was administering the test and just kind of looking at him like, is this dude ever going to pass? And then on the third try, he basically brokered a deal with the person who was administering the test that he could use a calculator. He could have as much time as he wanted, even though it was a time test and on and on. And he did pass the last time.

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  30. Then after that, he went out and he started a new company called BP Capital Management. From what I can understand in the book, this was just basically a futures company where he was out there trading futures contracts.

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  31. So his company kind of wrapping up his initial start to his career that really kind of gave him the notoriety and his name is so the name of the company. What I found kind of strange is after he sold Mesa, and I think that this happened in 1996-97 is when he sold Mesa. And it was kind of like this, didn't really end very well. The way he sold it, he kind of got forced out. And it was an interesting part of the book to kind of hear him talk about his leaving Mesa. But he had obviously a very large amount of money after he was forced out. And he started a new company. Did he go through a divorce at this point in time? I can't remember where that kind of lined up. I think so. Yeah, it all happened at the same time, or he went through a divorce and he kind of talks about all that part of it and the troubles and kind of the just enduring losing his company, losing his family. So I appreciate his honesty and kind of talking about that in the book. I think that that says a lot about him.

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  32. Controlling interest in the shares. And that's kind of how he got his notoriety. In 1985, I believe it was, 1985, Time magazine ran a front cover with his picture basically describing him as this, you know, oil tycoon takeover kind of guy. And that's where he really started to get a lot of notoriety after that Time magazine article and front page review. So the rest is kind of history as far as him just continuing to grow his business, continuing to do these hostile takeovers. Kind of like a Carl Icon kind of way of investing, but he doesn't really get into, and again, this is my frustration with the book. He doesn't really get into his mindset of how he was valuing companies, what he was doing to look at competitive advantages of owning it and like the strategic part of it.

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  33. The first million was definitely not the hardest as it seemed like it was just from family and friends and just came from magic. So that was definitely a complaint of the book. Instead of naming every one of these, and I want to tell people, if you're listening to this and you're wondering what the end of the show said, the show's going to be broken into two different segments. We're doing the first segment, and I apologize for not saying this up front, but we're doing the review of the book here, and it's not going to be really a long review. And then we're going to do three questions from the audience at the end. So if you're not really liking the review, just kind of hang on and we're going to get to some of these questions from the audience. So he started doing all these different acquisitions. And instead of naming all these different acquisitions, I'd rather talk about, I guess, the style in which he was going about these acquisitions. So he's out there. He's seeing other companies that are competitors to his in the market. And he's making different bids for, you know, trying to buy them out, doing basically a hostile takeover with the...

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  34. Lot of people really need a lot of guidance, like, hey, I saw I did this, and this is the way I saw things, this is the way I thought about things. He really didn't do that at all. It was just kind of like, yeah, so I got this geology degree. I worked, you know, a little bit as a person in the workforce. And then next thing you know, I started my own company. And then I did this acquisition.

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  35. Talk about on the show, and this unfortunately was one of those books. But whenever I looked at the paperback version of this book, and I'm holding it up right now and I'm flipping through it, it's really kind of a short book. It's only like 240 pages or something and the text in it is pretty big. But listening to the audiobook, it seemed like it just kept going and going. And like, it would never end. And I guess the reason that it was kind of hard to listen to was just because he talks about deal after deal after deal, which is kind of interesting to hear the discussion of like, hey, I started off doing this, which was he was a geology major in college. He went to Oklahoma State University. And after he got that degree, he graduated and it kind of just skims over this part of the book pretty quickly, wouldn't you agree, Stig? It didn't really talk about how he acquired his first $5 million. It really doesn't get into that, which I kind of found. Because, I mean, that's where I think a lot.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  36. No, I'm glad you said that because I didn't really know what to say other than, I guess I didn't really like it, but you hit the nail on the head. That's exactly what it was now that you said that it makes perfect sense. He was really trying to annotate and put into writing what it was that he did through all the years. And it wasn't necessarily like he was trying to teach other people how to do it. I think he was just trying to document, hey, I did all these things. That's kind of how I read it. Yeah. Totally. I completely agree with you. So let's give some folks a little bit of the background. So it's not, well, I can't say it's not all bet. The book was long for me. And I guess I judge my way I read books is, you know, everyone knows I use audibles and that Stick uses audibles. But one of them I'm going through the book, if it's something that I'm just kind of dreading to put on and listen to, I already know that that's probably not a book I really want to.

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  37. Hey everyone, how you doing out there? This is Preston Pish and I'm your host for the Investors Podcast. And as usual, I'm accompanied by my co-host Stig Broderson out in Denmark. And today we've got a book for you, and this book was written by a billionaire. And his name is T-Boone Pickens. And I'm sure many people out there know of T-Boone Pickens. He's on the National News Financial News media all the time talking about oil. So the book that we read, and this book was kind of older. So I think a lot of the information, not a lot of it, but some of the information and it was a little outdated with his respect to peak oil and things like that. But the book was written. It says a copyright of 2008. And the name of the book is the first billion is the hardest. So that was his cliche on, you know, people that say the first million is the hardest. Reading through this, Stig, what you think, buddy?

    2016-04-24 · We Study Billionaires · TIP 083 : The First Billion is the Hardest by T Boone Pickens (Money Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT