YouSaid · the spoken record

Thomas D. Gilovich

lines on the record: 71
first: 2018-01-25
most recent: 2018-01-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“You face that dilemma. You're much more likely to get the right answer by switching than staying. Students believe the complete opposite. It is better to go with your initial gut instinct. And so their belief is incorrect, doesn't fit the data that's been observed. But it's easy to see why they would believe that. That is, if you thought it was B and then you convince yourself, oh, let me switch to D, you erase it. Now you're endorsing B. And it turns out you were right. You're going to kick yourself. I had to answer. I knew it. You did. So short term.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think one thing that's interesting about that question is that it depends upon when you're talking about it. That in the immediate aftermath of a mistake of action, that just hurts a lot more than omission. And you see that everywhere. It plays out in the example that you started with about the grocery store line, that if you switch from a slow line to one that's seemingly faster and it slows down and you just kick yourself, I was in a better line. Why did I switch? The example at a university, of course, that I think everyone can relate to is people taking multiple choice tests and you have the common experience of zipping along, oh, this one's B. And oh, wait a minute. Maybe it's D and you go back and forth. Should I stick with my initial hunch or should I switch to now what I think that it is? Turns out people have studied that.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, when we were basically done with our hot handpaper, in fact, as a young person, I thought we were done. He would several times, Tom, come in here. I've moved this sentence around here and I've changed this word. And the thought was, the lesson was, if someone of his stature is really sweating the details right here at the very end, just making the paper a little better in these marginal ways, I can do that too. And it's just been a very helpful lesson. You never really done. Things can always be made better. And both Kahneman and Taversky are, you know, they're into what they're doing, passionately care about it. And it shows in their ability to throw themselves into it. And there's no being brilliant's great. And both of them are. But to get to their level, you also have to have a great capacity for hard work and a great”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was certainly a highlight of my career and subsequently had the great opportunity to have worked with Danny Kahneman as well. And Amos was brilliant as comes across in the undoing project. And one of the things that I most liked about Working with him one of the great lessons, and this applies equally as well to Kahneman. They're both brilliant and it's fun to be in close proximity to brilliance, but that's not enough. Both of these guys were incredibly hardworking and detailed oriented. And one of the things I learned from Amos, it's kind of similar to this sane people have about golf that you drive for show and you put for dough that”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It turns out we can predict the bets they're going to make, that is, if they've made several shots in a row, that is a very strong predictor of whether they're going to choose the risky bet or not. However, the bets that they choose are not very good predictors of what's going to happen next. Again, this three-link chain. No problem between the first and the second. How you've done influences how you feel. But surprisingly how you feel has either no or very little impact on your likelihood of making the next shot. And again, I want to stress it has to do with your ability to, as they now say, score the basketball, get the ball in the cylinder. It may affect you in other ways, may make you a better defender, better passer, or whatever.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think they say that after having seen the data and they want to maintain that belief. But we went a step further and we conducted, and other people have done this too, where you have people shoot in the gym for you. And the feeling for all of us who've played basketball is you can feel it in warm-up sometime. It doesn't have to be in the heat of the game that you can feel hot. And we have people take a series of shots along an arc, an equidistance from the basket. And before each shot, they place a bet on themselves, take a risky bet if they're feeling hot or a more conservative bet if they are not feeling so hot.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And a lot of basketball players and fans will say, well, I'm not so impressed by that because you can't really be streaky when it comes to free throws. Now, they say that after the fact. I mean,”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Our original hypothesis isn't controversial, that is to say people wildly overestimate the extent to which people are hot or how streaky people are whether there's any sort of carryover that remains a bit controversial.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Two things are important there. One is there may be some ways in which you've experienced some success, you feel different, and it might influence your future behavior that we haven't studied. We put aside from the hot hand idea, which is I've done well, maybe I'm a more energetic player, I play better defense, I get more rebounds. We don't know about that, and that may be true. What we did look at, do you become a better shooter? Not do you take more shots? You probably do take more shots because you're feeling hot. The question is, are you more likely to make a shot after having succeeded in the past versus after having failed? And the data show, and this remains controversial for 30 years, there's been back and forth all the challenges to it for decades have not stood up. There's a recent challenge that's among the more interesting ones, so I have to say it remains controversial.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Our hypothesis was that people are going to exaggerate how much heat there is, how much streakiness there is in performance. And when we did the analyses Turned out there was no connection between Link 2 and 3. That is how you feel doesn't seem to influence how you perform in the future, at least at the professional level.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yep, absolutely. And we wondered whether there was less to that belief than basketball players think. We're not, we don't want to challenge the feeling. There's no question that when you've done well, you feel differently. And when you've done poorly, you feel differently. basket seems to have shrunk. It seems like the best aim shot is going to go partly in the cylinder and pop right out. No questioning that, but the belief in the hot hand is really a three-link chain. Previous performance affects how you feel, how you feel affects subsequent performance. And we were interested in the link between the second and third. And the thought was that we exaggerate that for many of the same psychological principles. Already talked about. And when we tested it,”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. And it's incredibly compelling that you've made a few shots. The game just seems easier. It seems like you don't even have to attend to the basket as much as normal and it just goes in. It's absolutely compelling.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The belief in the hot hand is just one of the most powerful and firmly held beliefs that we have. If you've ever played or watched the game of basketball, it just seems like people get on these streaks where they can do no wrong. I am.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some of them have turned down the opportunity to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated simply because they thought it was bad luck.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There are a lot of superstitions that are essentially a failure to recognize the operation of regression. The sports illustrated jinx being one of them, that it's believed that if you get your picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated, that that's bad luck. And it doesn't take that much insight to recognize that really is a mean aversion account. That is, you only get your picture on the cover of sports illustrated if you've had a run of success and extraordinary success at time one is going to be followed not by abject failure, but by somewhat less extreme run of success afterwards. So you're right there on the peak on average. People are going to do less well the next time, and that gives rise to this belief that it's bad luck to be pictured on the cover of Sports Illustrated magazine. And people, athletes truly believe.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a great question, and there are a number of things that contribute to this belief, the failure to recognize the fact that regression to the mean is happening. And one of them is that it's the same story that I've described before, which is when it reverts, and particularly when it reverts after you've done something, that stands out in your memory more and distorts the intuitive database that you have in your head.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you get over it. If, on the other hand, you make the opposite mistake, you switch to the seemingly speedy line and it slows down the line you were in suddenly speeds up, you're going to kick yourself and say, wow, why did I do that? I was in the right line. I brought this on myself and it's more annoying. And because it's more annoying, it's more memorable. And therefore, you're going to have a distorted sense in your head of how common it is. Very much like there's a belief in the sports world, the baseball world, that if your team, your pitcher has a no-hitter in progress, don't comment on it. And that's partly fed by the idea that if your pitcher does have a no-hitter and you say, whoa, we've got a no hitter going, this is great. And then they lose it, you draw an association between those two, and those are going to stand out. And you're going to think that it's...”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That one, as far as the grocery lines, I don't know if anyone has formally studied it, but you have to ask what principle of the universe would there be that would systematically distort things such that whenever you move to a line it would slow down and the line that you were in suddenly sped up. But it's easy to explain why people would believe that even if it's not true. That is to say those times when you stay in your overly busy line, you're tempted to move to another one.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because they generally work pretty well in one of the earliest examples used and applied to psychology was Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tavirsky's examples of we use the clarity of an image as a cue for how far away it is. Farther things are, the harder it is to see them clearly so they will see more indistinct and that generally works pretty well. We're able to see whether something's very far away or relatively close up. But on a hazy day, that's going to make things seem farther away than they really are. And conversely, on a spectacularly clear day, you often have the reaction of, whoa, those mountains are, I didn't realize they were that close.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the bias part is quite easy. It's a term that people are familiar with when there's a systematic departure between a belief that you have and reality or a tendency to choose to veer in one direction when you should be veering in another direction. So it's a systematic departure from reality or the best assessment of reality. Heuristics, that's a little more complicated for most folks. It's generally defined in the behavioral economics world as a rough approximation, a seed of the pants, rule of thumb, rule of thumb is another way of describing it, yes.”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, if we're convinced of things that aren't true, we're going to go down certain paths that aren't going to be productive. And that quote captures that idea very well. And what I like about that quote is that most people attribute it to Mark Twain or Will Rogers. And the source, I thought at the time, was Artemis Vard. Maybe two years after the publication of the book, a reader wrote to me and said, well, that's really interesting. You're sort of telling everyone they got it wrong with Will Rogers and Mark Twain, but in fact it goes back even earlier than Artemis Ford to someone named Josh Billings that I hadn't heard of. So it's kind of ironic starting off a book on illusion in heir to the very first sentence of the book contains. Citation error, at least”
2018-01-25 · Masters in Business · Thomas D. Gilovich Talks About Human Behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source