YouSaid · the spoken record

Tim Urban

lines on the record: 230
first: 2023-02-20
most recent: 2023-02-20
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah, so COVID, you know, I thought might be, you know, we always, you know, the ultimate example of this topic that will unite us all is the alien attack. Yeah. Although, honestly, I don't even have that much faith. Then I think there'd be like some people are super pro alien and some people are anti-alien. But anyway.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And people were saying, Tam, you might have gone a little off the deep end. You're like quoting someone who is like a lab leak person. So I was getting my reputation dinged for complimenting on a different topic someone whose reputation was totally sullied because they questioned an orthodoxy, right? So you see, so what does that make me want to do? Distance myself from Brett Weinstein. That's the at least that's the incentive that's, and what does that make other people want to do? Don't become the next Brett Weinstein. Don't say it out loud because you don't want to become someone that no one wants to compliment anymore, right? You can see the social pressure. And that's, and of course, when there is a conspiracy, that social pressure is its best friend.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a lot of social pressure actually To immediately laugh off any conspiracy theory if it's done by the bad guys, right? You will quickly get mocked and laughed at and not taken seriously if you give any credence. Back the lab leak was a good one where it's like. Turned out that that was at least very credible, if not true. Was a perfect example of one where when it first came out, not only so Brett Weinstein talked about it. And then I, in a totally different conversation, said something complimentary about him on a totally different subject”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Job crazy theory, right? So, yeah, so I think, yeah, I think it'd be somewhere in the middle of that spectrum and to learn to fine-tune it.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So they're actually jumping back and forth between refusal to believe anything and believe anything. And so they're the extreme example. But I think when it comes to conspiracy theories, the people that get themselves into trouble are the ones who they become really gullible when they hear a conspiracy theory that kind of fits with their worldview. And they likewise, when there's something that's kind of obviously true and it's not a big lie, they will actually, they'll think it is. They just tighten up their kind of skepticism filter. And so, yeah, so I think the healthy places to be is where you are not, because you also don't want to be the person who says every conspiracy, you hear the word conspiracy theory, and it sounds like a synonym for like quack.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When you start having a bias, just so you have a political bias, when your side says something, you will find yourself moving towards the gullible side of the spectrum. You read an article written that supports your views. You move to the gullible side of the spectrum, and you just believe it and you don't have any, where's that skepticism that you normally have, right? And then you move, and then you soon as it's the other person talking, the other team talking, you move to the skeptical, closer to the in denial paranoid side. Flat earthers are the extreme. They are either at 10 or 1 So it's like it's so interesting because they're the people who are saying, ah, nah, I won't believe you. I'm not gullible. No, everyone else is gullible about the moon landing. I won't. And then yet when there's this evidence like, oh, because you can't see Seattle. You can't see the buildings over that horizon and you should, which isn't true. You should be if the earth around you wouldn't be able to see them. Therefore, so suddenly they become the most gullible person hear any theory about the earth flat, they believe it. It goes right into their belief.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think the healthy place is to be somewhere in the middle, but also you can learn to trust certain sources and then you don't have to do as much, apply as much skepticism to them. And so here's what...”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it was a great documentary called Behind the Curve about flat earthers. And one of the things that you learn about flat earthers is they believe all the conspiracies, not just the flat earth. They are convinced the moon landing is fake. They're convinced 9-11 was American con job. Convinced that name a conspiracy and they believe it. And so it's so interesting is that I think of it as a A skepticism spectrum. So on one side, it's like a filter in your head, a filter in the beliefs section of your brain. On one end of the spectrum, you are gullible, perfectly gullible. You believe anything someone says, right? On the other side, you're paranoid. You think everyone's lying to you, right? Everything is false. Nothing anyone says is true, right? So obviously those aren't good places to be. Now, the healthy place.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is that 94 out of 100 conspiracy theories come in and they fall down? The other maybe four of the others come in and there's something there, but it's not as extreme as people say. And then maybe one is a huge deal and it's actually a real conspiracy.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is really good at it because a real conspiracy, what's going to happen is you put it, it's like a little machine you put it in the middle of the table and everyone starts firing darts at it or bow and arrow or whatever and everyone starts kicking it and trying to. And almost all conspiracy theories, they quickly crumble, right? Because they actually, you know, Trump's election one is, you know, I actually dug in and I looked at like every claim that he or his team made. And it was like all of these, none of these hold up to scrutiny. None of them. I was open-minded, but none of them did. So that was one that as soon as it's open to scrutiny, it crumbles. The only way that conspiracy can stick around in a community is if it is a culture where that's being treated as a sacred idea that no one should kick or throw a dart at because if you throw a dart, it's going to break. So it's being, and so what you want is a culture where no idea is sacred. Anything can get thrown at it. And so I think that then what you'll find”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So here's the thing about conspiracy theories once in a while they're true, right? Because sometimes there's an actual conspiracy. Actually, humans are pretty good at real conspiracies, secret things. And then, you know, I just watched the Madoff doc. Great new Netflix doc, by the way. And so the question is. Do you create a system that is good at you put the conspiracy theory in and it either goes or it says this is interesting, let's keep exploring it. Like how do you put how do you do something that do you assess? And so again, I think the high run culture.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You say triggering, I mean, who's getting triggered? The primitive mind. So, what you're trying to do, what you're saying in this language is how do you have conversations with other people's higher minds, almost like whispering? Without waking up the primitive. Come in to mind, is there sleeping, right? And as soon as you say, as soon as you say something, the left primitive mind gets up and says, What? What are you saying about the left? And now everything goes off the rails.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sounds like a fight. People are going to say, Oh, wow, we got in like a fight. It was really awkward. Like, are we still friends with that person? Because that's not a culture of boxing. It's a culture where you don't touch each other's ideas. That's insensitive versus a high-rung culture. It's sport. I mean, every one of your podcasts, whether you're agreeing or disagreeing, the tone is the same. It's not like, oh, this got awkward. It's like the tone is identical because you're just playing intellectually either way because it's a good high-run space.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, what would you think about my boxer if not only had I telling you he was great, but he's never boxed anyone? But then you said, okay, well, your idea came over to try to punch him. And I screamed and I said, what are you doing? That's violence. And you're an awful person. And I don't want to be friends with you anymore because you would think this boxer obviously sucks, or at least I think it sucks deep down because why would I be so anti? Anyone, note boxing allowed. You know, people, so I think if you're in, so this I call this a ladder, right? If you're in low rung land, you know, whether it's a culture or whatever, a debate, an argument when someone says, no, that's totally wrong, what you're saying about that. And here's why. You're actually being totally biased.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, if I'm thinking with my higher mind, and now here you can use different things for an idea as a metaphor. So here the metaphor is a boxer. For one of your conclusions, one of your beliefs. If all I care about is truth, in other words, for the, that means all I care about is having a good boxer, I would say go, yeah, try. See if this person is good. In other words, I would get into arguments, which is throwing my boxer out there to fight against other ones. And if I think my argument's good, by the way, I love boxing. If I think my guy is amazing, you know, Mike Tyson, I'm thinking, oh yeah, bring it on. Who wants to come see? I bet no one can beat my boxer. I love a good debate, right? In that case.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We need a vertical axis. We have all these horizontal axes left, right, center, or this opinion all the way to this opinion, but it's like, what's much more important than where you stand is how you got there, right? And how you think. So this helps, if I can say this person's kind of on the left or on the right, but they're up high, I think. I think, in other words, I think they got there using evidence and reason and they were willing to change their mind. Now that means a lot to me what they have to say. If I think they're just a tribal person and I can predict all their beliefs from hearing one because it's so obvious what political beliefs, that person's views are irrelevant to me because they're not real. They didn't come from information. They came from a tribe's kind of sacred Ten Commandments.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Special ideas. And so, yeah, so that's one way to use this ladder is like it's a spectrum. At the top, the higher mind's doing all the thinking. And then as you go down, it becomes more of a tug of war. And at the bottom, the primitive mind is in total control.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're a faithful employee of those ideas. Now, the higher mind, to me, the same party that can override the Skittles, can override this and can search for something that makes a lot more sense, which is truth. Because what rational being wouldn't want to know the truth. Who wants to be delusional? And so there's this tug of war because the higher mind doesn't identify with ideas. Why would you? It's an experiment you're doing. It's a mental model. And if someone can come over and say, you're wrong, you'd say, show me, show me. And if they point out something that is wrong, you'd say, oh, thanks. Oh, good. I just got a little smarter, right? You're not going to identify with the thing. Go, yeah, kick it, see if you can break it. If you can break it, it's not that good, right? So there's both of these in our heads. And there's this tug of war between them and sometimes, you know, if you're telling me about something with AI, I'm probably going to think with my higher mind because I'm not identified with it. But if you go and you criticize the ideas in this book or you criticize my religious beliefs or you criticize, I might have a harder time because the primitive mind says, no, no, no, those are our...”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The people around us believe. And that can be fun in some ways. We all like the same sports team and we're all super into it and we're all going to be biased about that call together. I mean, it's not always bad, but it's not a very smart way to be. And you're actually working kind of for those ideas. Those ideas are like your boss. And you're working so hard to keep believing those. Those ideas are a really good paper comes in that you read that conflicts with those ideas. And you will do all this work to say that paper is bullshit because.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's that the primitive mind in the world that it was optimized for, it wanted to feel conviction about its beliefs. It wanted to be sure that it was, wanted to feel conviction, and it wanted to agree with the people around that didn't want to stand out. It wanted to fervently agree with the tribe about the tribe's sacred beliefs, right? And so there's a big part of us that wants to do that, that doesn't like changing our mind. It feels like it's part of our, the primitive mind identifies with beliefs. It feels like it's a threat, a physical threat to you, to your primitive mind when you change your mind or when someone disagrees with you in a smart way. So there's that huge force in us, which is confirmation bias. That's where that comes from. It's this desire to keep believing what we believe and this desire to also fit in with our beliefs, to believe.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's like, you know, it's not perfect. Obviously, there's a lot of crossover. There's people who will yell at me for saying there's two minds and to me it's still a useful framework where you have this software that has making decisions based on a world that you're not in anymore. And then you've got this other character. I call it the higher mind. And it's the part of you that knows that skills are not good and can override the instinct. And the reason you don't always eat skills is because the higher mind says, no, no, no, we're not doing that because that's bad. And I know that, right? Now, you can apply that to a lot of things. The higher mind is the one that knows I shouldn't procrastinate. The primitive mind is the one that wants to conserve energy and not do anything icky and, you know, can't see the future, so he procrastinates that, you know, you can apply this. Now, in this book, apply it to how we form our beliefs is one of the ways. And then eventually to politics and political movements. But if you think about, well, what's the equivalent of the Skittles tug of war in your head for how do you form your beliefs?”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why do we eat Skittles? It's trash. It's obviously bad for you. And it's because the primitive mind in the world that it was programmed for, there was no Skittles. It was just fruit. And if there was a dense, chewy, sweet fruit like that, it meant you just found like a calorie gold mine. Energy. Energy. Take it. Eat as much as you can. Gorge on it. Hopefully you get a little fat. It would be the dream. And now we're so good with energy for a while. I mean, I don't have to stress about it anymore. So today, Mars Inc. is clever and says, let's not sell things to people's higher minds, who's the other character. Let's sell the people's primitive minds. Primitive minds are dumb. And let's trick them into thinking this is this. thing you should eat and then they'll eat it now marsinc is a huge company”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I have these two characters. This orange guy, this primitive mind, this is our software, that is the software that was in a 50,000 BC person's head that was specifically optimized to help that person survive in that world. And not really survive, but help them pass their genes on in that world. civilization happened quickly and brains changed slowly and so that unchanged dude is still running the show in our head. And I use the example of like Skittles.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a compass. It's like a ruler that we can, once we look at it together and see what it is, we can Not this side. And so it gives us a direction to go.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just how the quality of life and the safety and all of that. So extrapolate that forward for us. Now, we were Thomas Jefferson. You know, what's the equivalent? That's what I'm talking about. And the big question is, I actually don't, I don't try to say, here's the way to get there. Here's the actual specific way to get there. I try to say, how do we have a flashlight so that we can together figure it out? Like, how do we give ourselves the best chance of figuring out the way to get there? And I think part of the problem with communists and people is ideologues is that they're way too overconfident that they know the way to get there. And it becomes a religion to them, this solution. And then you can't update once you have a solution as a religion. And so.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a deep confidence. That was a deep confidence about the instrumental way to get there. It was that, you know, I think a lot of us can agree that if everyone had everything they needed and we didn't have disease or poverty and people could live as long as they wanted to and choose when to die. And there was no existential, major existential threat because we control. I think almost everyone can agree that would be great that communism is a that was they said this is the way to get there and that is a different question you know so the unimaginably good future I'm picturing I think a lot of people would picture and I think most people would agree now not everyone there's a lot of people out there who would say humans are the scourge on the earth and we should degrowth or something but I think a lot of people would agree that you know just again take Thomas Jefferson bring him here he would see it as a utopia for obvious reasons for that the medicine the food the transportation”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, but here's the thing. So, I think we should have a compass is nice, but you know what else is nice? It's a flashlight in the fog that can help. You can't see that far, but you can see, oh, you can see four feet ahead instead of one foot. And that, to me, is discourse. That is open, vigorous, like discussion in a culture that fosters that is how the species, how the American citizens as a unit can be Wise as possible can maybe see four feet ahead instead of one foot ahead.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, then you get lucky. Then maybe you get to a good future by stumbling upon it. But ideally, you can get there. Like, I think a lot of America, the great things about it are a product of the wisdom of previous Americans. You know, the Constitution was a pretty wise system to set up.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think wisdom is doing what people a hundred years from now with the hindsight that we don't have would do if they could come back in time and they knew everything. It's like, how do we figure out how to have hindsight when we actually are not?”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How do we do our best? The one thing I know for sure is that we need to have our wits about us and do our best. And the way that we can do that, we don't have to be as wise as possible to proceed forward. And wisdom is an emergent property of discourse.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was a little bit of a blip, right? It happened. It must have felt like the end of days at the time. And then now most people don't even know about that versus, you know, again, the Roman Empire actually collapsed. And so the question is just like, is yeah, will in 50 years, will this be like, or like McCarthyism, oh, they had like, oh, that was like a crazy few years in America, and then it was fine. Or is this the beginning of something really big? And that's what I'm”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's the big question. It could easily. So, right now, you know the 1890s was like super politically contentious decade in the US. It was like immense tribalism and the newspapers were all like lying and telling, you know, there was a lot of like what we would associate with today's media, the worst of it. And it was over gold or silver being this, I don't know, it was very, it's something that I don't understand. But the point is.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And also, giant paradigm shifts happen quickly nowadays. The internet came out of nowhere and suddenly was like, you know, changed everything. So there could be changed everything on the way. It seems like there's a few candidates for it. But I mean, it feels like the stakes are just high. Higher than it even was for the Romans, higher than it was for because we were more powerful as a species. We have godlike powers with technology that other civilizations at their peak didn't have.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think I don't feel confident at all about whether, no, no, I don't mean that. I don't mean confident in my opinion that we may be on the downswing or that we may be. I truly don't know. It's like I think the people These are really big macro stories that are really hard to see when you're inside of them. It's like being on a beach and running around a few miles this way and trying to suss out the shape of the coastline. It's just really hard to see the big picture. You know, you get caught up in the micro.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's gone in and out depending on the country, but hasn't reached that level of America's awesome around the world. And the political, you know, situation's gotten really ugly. And maybe it's social media. Maybe who knows? But I wonder if it'll ever be as simple and positive as it was then. Like maybe we are in the, you know, it feels a little like maybe we're in the beginning of the downfall or not because these things don't just, it's not a perfect smooth. Hill. It goes up and down, up and down. So maybe there's another big upcoming.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's just like when I listen to these things, I'm thinking, you know, the 80s, the 90s, America, the 90s was popular. People forget that now. Like Clinton was a superstar around the world. Michael Jordan was exported internationally, then basketball was everywhere suddenly. You had like music, the sports, whatever. It was a little probably like the 50s, you know, coming out of the world war and the depression before it was like this kind of like everyone was in a good mood kind of time, you know? It's like a finish a big project and it's Saturday. It was like, I feel like the 50s was kind of like everyone was having it, you know, the 20s. I feel like everyone was in good mood randomly. Then the 30s, everyone was in a bad mood. But the 90s, I think we'll look back on it as a time when everyone was in a good mood. And it was like, you know, again, of course, at the time, it doesn't feel that way necessarily. But I look at that. I'm like, maybe that was kind of America's peak. And like, no, maybe not, but like, it hasn't been popular since really worldwide.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's really hard to know. I mean, all I, you know, one of the things we can do is look at history. On one hand, there's a lot of stories. I actually listening to a great podcast right now called The Fall of Civilizations. And it's literally every episode is like, you know, a little two-hour deep dive into some civilization. Some are really famous like the Roman Empire, some are more obscure, like the Norse and Greenland. But each one is so interesting. But there's a lot of civilizations that had their peak. There's always the peak, right? When they're thriving and they're at their max size and they have their waterways and they have their civilized and it's representative and it's fair and whatever. Not always, but the peak is the great, you know, if I could go back in time, you know, it's not that you don't, you know, the farther you go back, the worse it gets. No, no, no. You want to go back to a civilization. I would go into the Roman Empire in the year 100. Sounds great, right? You don't want to go to the Roman Empire in the year 400.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The exponential tech is a double edged sword. It's so exciting. I'm happy to be alive now overall because I'm an optimist and I find it exciting, but it's really scary. And the dumbest thing we can do is not be scared. Dumbest thing we can do is get cocky and think, well, my life is always the last couple generations. Everything's been fine. Stop that.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Probably be in the Stone Age right now because 0.001% of people would love to destroy all of humanity, right? Some 16-year-old with huge mental health problems who right now goes and shoots up a school would say, oh, even better, I'm going to blow up a city. And now suddenly there's copycats, right? And so as our technology grows, it's going to be easier for the worst bad guys to do tremendous damage. And it's easier to destroy than to build. So it takes a tiny, tiny number of these people with enough power to do bad. So that to me, I'm like, the stakes were going up because what we have to lose is this incredible utopia, but also dystopia is real. It happens. The Romans ended up in a dystopia. They've probably earlier thought it was never possible. We should not get cocky. And so to me, that trend is...”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There is a future, and by the way, these are happening faster, these jumps, right? So the thing that would seem like a utopia to us we could experience in our own lifetimes, right? Like it's especially life extension combines with exponential progress. I want to get there. And I think in that part of what makes it utopia is you don't have to be as scared of the worst bad guy in the world trying to do the worst damage because we have protection. That said, I'm not sure how that happens. It's easier said than done. Nick Bostrom uses the example of if nuclear weapons could be manufactured by microwaving sand, for example.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The AIs are benevolent and they control everything. And so there's one random anecdote where they're like, you know, what happens if you murder someone in, because there's still people with rage and jealousy or whatever. So someone murders someone. First of all, that person's backed up. So it's like they have to get a new body and it's annoying, but it's like it's not death. And secondly, that person, what are they going to do? Put them in jail? No, no, no. They're just going to send a slap drone around, which is this little tiny, you know, random drone that just will float around next to them forever. And by the way, kind of be their servants. Like, it's kind of fun to have a slap drone, but just making sure that they never do anything. And it's like, I was like, oh, man, it could just be, everyone could be so safe and everything could be so like, you know, you want a house, you know, the AIs will build your house. There's endless space. There's endless resources. So I do think that that could be part of our future. That's part of what excites me is like there is, like, today would seem like a utopia to Thomas Jefferson, right? Thomas Jefferson's world would seem like a utopia to a caveman.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's how I got onto it, and I read six of the ten books. And they're great. But the thing I love about them is like, it just paints one of these futuristic societies where the good has gotten so good that”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No. So, the first thing is I noticed a trend, which was like. The centuries, the good is getting better every century. Like the 20th century was the best century yet in terms of prosperity, in terms of GDP per capita, in terms of life expectancy, in terms of poverty and disease. Every metric that matters, the 20th century was incredible. It also had the biggest wars in history, the biggest genocide in history, the biggest existential threat yet with nuclear weapons. The depression was probably as big an economic. So it's this interesting thing where the stakes are getting higher in both directions. And so the question is if you get enough good, does that protect you against the bad, right? The dream, and I do think this is possible too, is the good gets so good. You know, have you ever read the culture series, Ian Banks books?”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just think it had some like Steve Jobs user friendliness already to it that other ones hadn't had. I think Windows 95 was a really big deal. I remember I'm old enough to remember the MS DOS when I was like kind of remembered the command. And then suddenly this concept of like a window, you drag something into or you double click an icon, which now seems like so obvious to us was like revolutionary because it made it intuitive. So I don't know, yeah.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A dumb part of my brain is genuinely convinced that it's real. Then the smart part knows it's not. But that's why the dumb part was like, we're not walking off that cliff. The smart part's like you're on your rug, it's fine. The dumb part of my brain is like, I'm not walking off the cliff. So I was like, it's crazy.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can make something on the screen move. And the same feeling I had the first time someone showed me how to send an email. It was like really early. And he's like, you can send this. And I was like, it goes, I can press enter on my computer and something happens on your computer. Those were obviously, you know, when you have that feeling, it often means you're witnessing a paradigm shift. And I thought, this is one of those things. I still kind of think it is, but it's kind of weird that it hasn't, you know, like where's the VR revolution?”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This is something I've been wrong about because I went to one of the Facebook conferences and tried out all the new Oculus stuff. And I was like, you know, pretty early talking to some of the major players there because I was going to write a big post about it that then got swallowed by this book. But I would have been wrong in the post because what I would have said was that this thing is, you know, when I tried it, I was like, this is, you know, some of them suck. Some of them make you nauseous and they're just not that you're the headsets were big and, you know. But I was like, the times when this is good, it is, I have this feeling. I haven't had, it reminds me of the feeling I had when I first was five and I went to a friend's house and he had Nintendo. And he gave me the controller and I was looking at the screen and I pressed a button and Mario jumped. And I said, I said,”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He talked about getting, you know, I think it was something like a billion people with a VR headset in their pocket and by, I think 10 years from now back in 2015. So we're behind that. But when he was talking about that, and honestly, I,”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You can say that Elon was a genuine leader there. And so there are examples now like Zuckerberg definitely has done a lot of leadership along the way. He's also potentially kind of like caught in a storm that is happening. And, you know, he's one of the figures in it. So I don't know.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that suggests that there's some bigger force that is also kind of driving them, in which case it's less about the individuals. I think what is leadership, right? I mean, to me, leadership is the ability to move things in a direction that the cultural forces are not already taking things. A lot of times people seem like a leader because they're just kind of hopping on the cultural wave and they happen to be the person who gets to the top of it. Now it seems like they're, but actually the wave was already going. Like real leadership is when someone actually changes the wave, changes the shape of the wave. Like I think Elon with SpaceX and with Tesla, like genuinely like shaped a wave. You know, maybe you could say that EVs were actually like they were going to happen anyway, but there's not much evidence about at least happening when it did. You know, if we end up on Mars.”
2023-02-20 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source