YouSaid · the spoken record

Tom Keene

lines on the record: 28
first: 2022-12-29
most recent: 2022-12-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“No, they were not. No, they weren't. We did the clip on thing minimally, I must admit that was like, I don't want to do that.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I found a picture of my grandfather, my mother's father, five years ago holding me, and he had a bow tie on. I have no recollection of my grandfather having a bow tie. It started when I was sort of sort of kind of like pre-med and I was in emergency rooms and they wouldn't let you wear a normal tie They're afraid the patient will grab you With a regular tie. So I was forced to wear a bow tie. Doing what was called extern. This is a million years ago. This is before anesthesia. And, you know, it sort of started with that.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, to get wonky on you within a classic ISLM matrix, John Hicks 39 and Krugman's written about this beautifully. What I would suggest is there's a total underestimation of real economy effects. Everybody's over in the bank, what's Yelling going to do, what's Carney going to do, which is fine. I mean, that's what keeps us employed, all three of us. But the real economy effects have been grossly underrated from day one of the crisis, August of 2007. And the other thing I would suggest is the interest rate transmission Between the real economy and the bank side of things, the LM curve is totally broken at the zero bound. And there's things we don't understand that are going on in the interest rate sphere right now. There's a mystery here.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would suggest not that it's not over. I'm not going to make a prediction. I would say the people predicting it is over are untenuous ground.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It looks like a persistent decline in commodity prices over many years. And then there's a China aberration. And we are off the top of my head, two-thirds to three quarters of our way back to normal. Which is commodity long term commodity deflation.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the morning, well, my chart of the year is inflation adjusted commodities back 60, 70 years. I've shown it on TV probably 10 times. You can steal. It's a great chart, great, great chart. What does it look like?”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a chemistry, it's a mixture, and there's always exceptions. There's hyper academic people that fail in that. I do think it's a chemistry. We keep very careful track of who we like and who we don't like. And I would say the third rail is we don't want people that are scripted or consulted. That was the rage two, three, five years ago. There's less of that now. We have less and less people on talking points, which is where a consultant comes in and tells them four things to say. That's gone away. But mostly, you know, it's a media phrase pop. They've got to have pop, part, part, part, particularly in radio is critical.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Productivity in the media is appallingly reported. There's capital, there's labor, and there's a separate ratio wrapped around something called total factor productivity or TFP. And the pros know all that, and they sort of just, you know, when we talk about productivity gloss over it. But the answer is labor ain't happening, and certainly for a part of America, this Angus Deaton winning the Nobel Prize is a big deal. Big, big deal. This is the death of aggregate aggregation of summing everything together And that's a really big deal that I talked to Shiller tonight at MCS to talk about it.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It has to do with the media and it has to do with speed of Twitter and all that. I mean, the Cyprus crisis alone with Twitter was surreal, that Saturday morning when Cyprus blew up, how the Twitter dialogue changed the discussion. But what is under-emphasized from a Newtonian mechanics standpoint is inertial force. And the word chronic. And the answer is you're totally right about 10 and 11. And what's different now is it may not be force majeure like it was then, but there's just this chronic weight of gridlock in Washington, this chronic sense of GDP underperforming, even while unemployment supposedly gets better. And that goes back to productivity. Everybody was. Three ratio productivity analysis”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was well, you know, you stand on the floor of the Republican Convention ex conventions are going. You go, Well, this is surreal or the Democrat doesn't matter which party. But the answer is we are programmed for certain nominally real GDP that ain't happened. There's a quarter here, a quarter there. Macroeconomic advisors right now has third quarter at 1.5%. The next quarter is a little bit better. We have not had the run rate of GDP that provides base psychological comfort to a lot of people, whether it's over educated twerps like my kids or, you know, people really struggling. Millions of Americans.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I think they're both there, but I think. In 2015, that the generational issues are less spoken, which to an extent speaks of the anger and the politics today.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the number one story is one of my kids said to me, Daddy, when does this get to be fun? And I think there's a massive understanding by people of a certain vintage that the kids don't have. They have lots of wonderful digital stuff and medical stuff, et cetera, et cetera. But the optimism has been shattered. And the answer Jeff Immelt, I was with two years ago, I'm guessing, and he said, look, all we need is 3.2% GDP. And that solves a lot of problems. That's a very smart comment by the applied mathematician from Dartmouth. We don't have that. The younger people, people under about 32 have never known normal.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The one I got now with the greatest guitar, my concert Gibson J100, which was picked out by Eric Schoenberg up in Boston, was stolen and I got it back four years ago. I told Dave Drummond to Google, I got it off Google Images. There was my guitar in Google Images. And I've got some others now, but I think that's, you know, I guess the best one's the one my father had, but that's been lost.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was post Tracy Chapman, Susan Vega was really happening with Luca and Solitude Standing. And then a whole host of people came on, really jumpstarted by a guy named David Wilcox, who did an album called Either Hurricane for A&M Records, which just, there was like this mini folk boom. And what was so cool, we knew when we, this is before the internet. That's a key statement. Even we had no idea what was coming in digital, but we knew how lucky we were to do it when we were doing it. We knew it couldn't last.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there were three or four iterations of it. But to make a long story short, I ended up doing the New England singer-songwriter thing, juggling a bunch of other stuff. There's a place in Nashville called the Blueberg Cafe, which is magical.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To 92nd version of Tom Keene's musical. The 92nd version is real simple at eight years old. I walked into a place called Stutsman's, which is legendary in the acoustic music business with my father. There were six Gretch White Falcons lined up. Where did you grow up? Rochester, New York, Kodak. And my father bought me a $42, you know, acoustic guitar. And then I just began grinding away.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Earliest memories, earliest. It was permeating in my house. My grandfather knew A.W. Coe and the point and figure guy. He did point and figure charts. My mother did point and figure charts. You come from a family background analysis. Totally permeating investment theory and investment analysis.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Univers I think some of it was extremely valid this time around. I think that the model fatigue is much more in the macro area, the work Olivier Blanchard did at the IMF with Joe Stiglitzen. Others really important to ask. The non sophisticated and the very sophisticated differential equation models that pro-PhDs use, and I don't pretend to be fluent in them, they're very suspect after what we went through in August of 2007.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“English what they're talking about. Well, let me parse that debate. You're absolutely right, Joe. The basic idea is there was an era, particularly coming out of World War II, of too much math anxiety, et cetera, et cetera. And then at the undergraduate level, not at the PhD, not at the doctor track level, the graduate level, but at the undergraduate level. A vast majority of people don't have the dynamics in their head to do even basic Marshallian microeconomics or name the flavor of macro you want to do. The British are very different in the French. They have much better as a rule of thumb undergraduate mathematics than we do. If I talk to British students, their knowledge of first-order difference equations off the chart. Honors undergraduate programs in the US, some of them have no clue what that is.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some of the certitude of quantitative finance, and you get a massive humility. I think the math overlay is A, it's a massive type one. You've got it. But what it really is, and I see it every day, and it's getting worse, it's a little better in a couple last couple years, is the math phobia with an economics finance investments just stunning. It's just breathtaking how bad it is. That's interesting.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, the background there was growing up with it. I have the clearest memories of getting up on my tiptoes and looking over my father's desk is he did very sophisticated triple integration of space satellites. And I would literally play on the floor with a French curves. This is a million years ago. And think Sputnik and IGY and all that. And all of that became a mathiness which culminated in Max Peter's fabulous program at the University of Colorado. Max Peters was a highly decorated Italian infantryman up the spine of Italy in World War II. And he went out to Colorado and put together the mother of all grinds in engineering academics. And I was extremely fortunate to parachute into that for a couple years. So you take what I get in math and what I don't get. Trust me, there's a lot I don't get. And then you overlay that into”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's Mark Twain, you know, certitude of 21. Yeah, you learn from a wide set of mistakes and cycles, which gives you a humility, which forces you to get smarter. For example, I went to a wedding this weekend, and half the wedding was from Uruguay. I know nothing about Montevideo except one of my kids friends all went down there because they couldn't get a job in America. And I read seven articles this weekend on Uruguay just to begin to, I have no clue about Uruguay. There's that kind of madness but compounded over time.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a humility show. It's a humility thing of knowing every day how dumb you are and trying to always work at getting smarter, laughing at your mistakes. There's a lot now after the financial crisis, but there's lots of people strutting around with a certain intellectual arrogance about economics, finance, investment. Right now, nobody has arrogance in international relations”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You learn factors more losing money. Than making money. Factors more. But I can tell you that the way I learned to lose money was enjoying losing money and the options market.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Huge, oh huge. It's a massive type two in that you learn so much enjoying losing money. For those of you, Gaussian, it's log normal. You learn way more on the downsides than the upside.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, before the media thing, I was in the investment business, but there's a whole sidecar thing in music and in entertainment. For example, and I gauge it off my oldest child's age, I used to hold them in my arms and do the stock report in Boston. And this is the vanilla days, not cross-asset. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 42 points today, 842, blah, blah, blah. You know, that. And so I did a little bit of investment stuff back then, but a lot of it was just the music business as well, which is the show biz aspect, which a lot of people in business media try to ignore every day. And they're wrong. I mean, the FT's pink. It's pink for a reason. It's pink. It's like what you did. I mean, you invented the modern headline in modern business journalism. It's just, you know that Weisenthal wrote that headliner. You just know that.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just hired me because of the bow tie, but To make a long story short, you get lucky. And I met Matt, and we basically invented what you see. That's a safe statement.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I get it a lot in what I would suggest is it's one part short-term stuff, one part long-term stuff, and one part blind luck. The long-term thing is being acutely aware when I was a kid and ever more every day, knowing how twisted the early years were. I felt sound like Bad Stan Freeberg record. And you don't know who Stan Freeberg is. He was a great comedian. He just died this year. And then recently, it was about the privilege of running into Matt Winkler. And basically, Matt and I, with the support of L. Mayers, who runs Bloomberg Media and Ted Fine, who runs TV, they're the ones that made all this happen.”
2022-12-29 · Odd Lots · Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source