YouSaid · the spoken record

Tom Thornton

lines on the record: 83
first: 2022-02-17
most recent: 2022-02-17
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“The point is, I love what I do. It's research. It has a little bit of my personality and spice and its long short ideas, its macro. We look at currencies, commodities, rates, everything. And it's been a joy since five years ago. And I did it. And honestly, it was like a really low point in my life. And I thought I have nothing to lose. And I basically burned the boats and never looked back. And I've met so many nice people like you, like so many who I've collaborated with. It's just been an absolute joy.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Trying to search for what I wanted to do. And I was putting out this note. I continued to do it and I wasn't making really any money. And one of my old trader friends said, you know, you should put it on Twitter and see if anybody wants it. People will buy this. It's really good. And they'll pay you. I was like, and so I put it out on Twitter and I said, hey, does anybody want my daily note? Give me your email, send me a DM. And I had a thousand DMs within three hours and I had 2,000 within a week. Of people that wanted to see my stuff. And I started doing it. It was free. And then we went behind a paywall. Hey, look, I got to pay for Bloomberg's and I got to pay for people. And, you know, hey, I think it's worth it.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I work for a hedge fund for a bunch of years, then I ran a family office for the founder. And every week and day I'd put out research that I would get from all different sources and it would go out internally into our firm and it helped people analysts, traders, portfolio managers position properly and see risks. And I would just take so much and condense it in. And I thought to myself, and when I was at the family office, I thought, you know, this would be kind of a cool idea to send to some institutional clients, hedge funds, pensions, and those types and see what would happen. Truth be told, I was”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I just think right now it's just play it safe. It's a time to be tactical. Don't try to get rich. Stay solvent. Live to play another day. Those are little things that I write down on my. My pad down here just to solve it, remind myself”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, I'm not actually... I generally am very bullish on the US versus other countries, and Partly because I think our equity market has been a beacon of Strength of inflows and predictability with our Fed. We have higher rates. And I think that you have better potential with what's going on in the US. Not all places in the US, but I think that There's ris If everything goes down, I think there's going to be more downside in foreign markets than in the US. And I look at markets globally and I was talking to Julian Brigdon and he's like, what do you think of Chile? I'm like, well, the chart looks good. What do you think of Brazil? Yeah, the chart looks good. But again, those have some sketchy governments. They have some stuff that could blow up pretty quick if the US starts to blow up, everything's going to go down.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, abs. And look, your PF, foreign equities are, you know, a lot of people like Europe. I mean, everybody's liked Japan for a long time because it's cheap I think that saying something's cheaper or expensive is not necessarily the greatest reason to go in there. But I think that there's structural issues with the A bunch of countries that don't all carry their own weight, and that's an issue. We saw that in 2011. Therefore, you could have, I mean, let's go real ugly. The ECB type to see things break up. Things started to really unwind. I just think that right now that they don't have a cohesive plan, they haven't really put that out there. She backpedaled on. Reducing the balance sheet or QE. And I think that that, to me, said, we're making it up as we go, and I'm scared to raise rates. So is there a country that”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I don't know. I don't know if they're going to. You know, Christine Lagarde is cagey as far as saying if they will and how they will and what will happen, which is more concerning to me because everyone needs to be globally on the same page as far as unwinding it to have that ability in the future. To have emergency measures. Because if let's say they don't and things get ugly, what are they going to do? We're just going to give you more of the same that got us into the problem in the first place. That sounds good. Yeah. So was that how's it?”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, so that to me is just like logic. If I explain that to my wife who is an interior designer and I said, can you imagine doing this? She would even know that it would be like, that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard of in my life. So that's a risk of things unwinding. And Europe has had a history of debt unwinding. Unwindy. I have to use that word more. And that was in 2011. Rates spiked, stocks got killed.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so your principle goes up, but you're still paying the interest. And I said, what happens if it reverses? It goes, well, then, you know, we've got a problem. And now things are reversing. The amount of negative yielding debt in the world on dollar terms was $18 trillion. And now it is almost under $4 trillion. So the risk I see is that here's the other thing. All the banks in Europe, basically they got bailed out and they were told just keep buying and the pensions, just keep buying our debt for the ECB. Just keep buying it. So they have all this garbage on their balance sheet. And let's just think of it this way. So you're paying the interest. And the principle is declining at the same time. That's, I mean, that is a certifiable disaster if rates continue higher.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, they did the most idiotic financial move ever, which was, and it happened in Japan as well, negative interesting bonds. Now, I asked the head of Blackstone's global asset allocation years ago, several years back. And I said, why are people, why are your fund managers just keep buying the negative interest rate debt? He said, because they think that rates are going to keep going lower.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and they sold some higher and they got in pre-IPO way, way back, and it's been their best position. But everything else that they have has been absolutely decimated and their stock's been hit, and they're the third largest weight on the Nikkei. And they have private equity. And in private equity, you have to mark your positions. It's very hard when everybody in the company was given leverage to buy shares in their private equity. And then if they have to start marking things down. It could get a little unmindy. Yeah. Is that a word? Unwindy. So people could unwind some there. That's a risk to keep an eye on. I'm good with risk. I'm also worried in Europe about the ECB. I just think that they are Very much ill equipped to deal with rising rates Go ahead”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think China, they have still lots of issues with their real estate and banks. We'll see. I think China's probably, it may be an okay place to buy the A-shares in China. The Hong Kong stuff, they're still, I mean, look, when the government is publicly going after the tech CEOs and cutting off their knees, basically, and their stocks are getting killed. It's uninvestable. Alibaba has risk because Softbank, which is under a lot of pressure themselves, leveraged. of their mind that's their biggest holding”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm glad you brought up Europe because I neglected to ask you about international markets. Do you have a view? Are you more constructive on Europe than you are on the US? How do you think about emerging markets? You know, Brazil's rates are already at 10, 11 percent. The US is at zero. So maybe is Brazil a hiding place? How are you sort of thinking about China, Asia, Europe, emerging markets?”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Be a bad idea for them to try and rush anything. And apple's a smart company. Tim Cook's amazing, they don't rush anything. They are very methodical. They're going to do it. They're going to test it. You don't need to rush anything. They've got the greatest selling device, the iPhone. Continues to make them money have services that make some money. But there's going to be competition. And Ford GM, they've got their trucks and people are going to start buying them. I think Tesla just is going to start to wane a bit. I think their demand by opening new factories could start to show an over too much capacity. So we'll see. I don't know. And then there's the full self-driving, which doesn't work. And people are starting to get irritated that they've paid money and it doesn't work. So that's an issue.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I don't think apples, I mean, Apple's going to have an electric vehicle out by 2025. Yeah, yeah. I think it would be...”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They are having a problem surviving the cars. There's more recalls starting to happen. You can go on social media and see people that are complaining about their cars that the service is awful. So that's a brand that is under, it's got some problems. You have tons of people that love their cars. But you also have all these new EDs coming out at cheaper prices as well. And in Europe, Mercedes, BMW, Renault, Pugeot, Stalantis, everybody has electric vehicles that are hitting. VW is just they're making a monster push and I think it's going to be like the Blackberry. It's going to be nichey people love it but here's the newest and greatest new thing called iPhone right that's gonna be There's going to be alternatives. But Tom, you're short apple.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, everybody's going to just laugh. I still like Tesla short. And I've been, I actually trade it a lot, and I've been pretty successful trading it. If you just had held it from that gamma squeeze all the way up, you'd be run over. I wasn't in it. I never could have imagined it got to the highs that it did. But I do think that there's a risk with Tesla. And it's partly because I think Elon Musk selling stock, it's a little shady. It was said that he donated $5 billion worth of shares to a secret charity. And I'm willing to bet that he donated it to the Musk Foundation charity because he's done that before. And I think that's a little bit cheesy because he's basically going to not have to pay taxes now, which was the reason he sold. But there's also problems with the cars.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hundreds of thousands of people are going to these races, and the profit that they're going to make is going to be very, very high. And the TV rights are, they make money. The teams are really interesting because it's brought social media has brought in the personalities of these drivers. And so people feel a lot closer. And I think the stock, it's 63. I think it's going to be $100 stock. this time next year. You know, I like special situations. That's how I like unless the market is oversold and I can basically spread it out and throw darts.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Interest in Formula One solely due to a Netflix show that's been on for three seasons called Drive to Survive has brought in huge numbers of new fans. Huge. And I even have my three daughters and their boyfriends love it and I can't get my wife to watch it, but that's a tough ask. But there's going to be two big races in the US next year in May, Miami, and then in October in Austin. And they've been doing Austin. And the attendance is just out of control. And we're talking.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, there's going to be a few hiding places in the market. I think there's still upside for the reopening type plays, the casinos, the restaurant. Well, restaurants are going to hit hit by inflation. Airlines. People are flying again. I think you're probably going to see the price gouging that they did early start to subside and people are going to start saying, okay, let's travel, let's do some more traveling. And I'd like to see people start traveling for work again. So one of my favorite stocks is the Formula One FWNK. So I'm a big Formula One fan. I've been a long holder of this stock and it's up 50% from where I bought it. And I bought it at the lowest in March 2020. They were canceling races and everything was falling apart.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, I'm totally agnostic. And, you know, the DeMarc indicators have been exceptionally good finding inflection points. And the DeMarc indicators work almost like market sentiment, where you, the last, when things go up, it's not that smart sellers come into the market. It's that the last buyer has bought. And it's the opposite on the downside. When, you know, it's not the smart buyers come in. Last seller has sold. On Bitcoin, I think it was November 8th, the day before the high, we had a DeMarc sell countdown 13. I put it on Twitter and I had some rather interesting comments of how stupid I am.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Week to two weeks, about let's say two weeks. You know, the risk is with everything right now is that we break through the previous lows. And the one thing that Detherium has done nicely is that it bounced and our signals were really pretty strong with the bounce. And it made a higher low. Then I like to see things make higher lows or lower lows, if I'm short. And that is the one thing I think has been real positive. So this last little dip that we had in Ethereum after the bounce, if I was trading it, I would have a tight stop there if I was a trader and then a much maybe halfway between last price today and the lows as a stop. That's generally how I would do it.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think crypto's still a little bit bubbly. I'd like to see, I mean, I'm not a crypto investor and the thing is I'm absolutely 100% objective with it technically of how I look at the assets. And I only focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. And those are the only ones I chart. But I do think that if the equity markets go down and the bond markets go down, you're going to see crypto go down as well. Ethereum, again, I think has some upside potential. Maybe Bitcoin as well, but I think 50,000 Bitcoin will probably stall if it gets there. But it's that type of asset that can go down 50%, and that's a feature, I'm told.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I still think the equity market is a bubble. The MegaCap, I can talk, the MegaCap stocks are a bubble. I think people hide in these believing that they're going to just continue to do as well as they always have. And growth is always looked upon as year over year. So if growth starts to slow, which I think it will because the Fed's going to raise rates and it's going to put the consumer under some pressure and the consumers under pressure because of inflation It's inevitable that these will go down. No, I think that if you ask me that question six months ago, I'd have a lot more answers, but the market has brought down a lot of speculative stuff. And that's good. The market is supposed to do that. I think banks are a little Bubbly just because of the positioning?”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But bring it on because if we do get that, we're going to have a better setup going forward. And if we're prepared for it, which we are. We'll prosper and we'll do fine with that and do your job, which is Just that to control inflation. So, yeah, I think there's a possibility that we could go into a recession. And one thing that was happening in the late 1990s and early 2000 is that we had such strong growth and the Nasdaq dropped 90%. And I think it was about a year and a half. And we never really went technically into a recession, but it was felt that we dropped significantly. And then the Fed came to the rescue and created a new bubble. Let's make housing our new bubble.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it was tough, and he sent the economy into a recession, and this Fed could do it as well. But it was actually a recession that was cleansing. It took away the crazy runaway inflation and really set up a long-term bull market. The problem is in bonds and stocks for that matter. But the problem is that you had such a high yield at that time that it lasted a lot longer. So what are treasury is going to get to? three percent four percent Tenure or the 30 year. I mean, everything is very tightly wound and there's... Inversion that could happen as well, and that is also a concern when short rates go higher than the long rates and that inverted or curve like that that's flattening could invert, and that's been a signal of a recession.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Those high yield and investment grade bonds. And if you're holding a mutual fund or ETF, it's going to go down because of the principal. There's a real risk for a dislocation. And if you look back at financial... You can see that rates went up and stocks went down. So you can see bonds and stocks selling off. It happened in 1987. It happened with the Euro debt crisis. It happened. That is a real risk. And one thing that nobody has seen, nobody has seen inflation like we have today and a Fed that has to do something about it. I mean, people are freaking out about 50 basis points coming off of zero. Zero. And that may not, or maybe it will do what it's tricked to control inflation. And, you know, that, I think, is the real unknown. But if you go back into history and you look at the 70s and what Volcker did,”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're basically buying bonds for the capital appreciation, and people have been buying stocks in the last, let's say, ten years, partly because they have a higher yield than bonds. So you could buy a S&P and get a higher yield than any treasury out there. And you get the benefit of having some capital appreciation. And that's where people are positioned. When bonds when rates go up, bond prices go down. And there's a lot of leverage and there's a lot of risk that all the issuance of credit investment grade, high yield, it's pegged off of US treasuries and So, for example, everything Issued in the last two years was issued with a ten year well under, let's say, And a quarter percent. And if rates start moving higher, the Principle is going to drop on the”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a tough mix. The market sentiment for bonds is a bit lower than stocks. And we're actually seeing some exhaustion signals on yields and ETFs on the downside like TLT or IEF. So there's actually a tactical trade to buy bonds right now. And the thought is And I still think rates are going to go higher, so it's not a put away for a long time. But I think there's a tactical risk-off situation that's going to happen with equities going down and people will buy into U.S. treasuries. The one thing about treasuries and bonds And this is the funny part. I think it's funny. Nobody is buying a 30 year bond or a 10-year bond for their yield. They're only buying for capital appreciation. That is how a bond manager makes money. Buying a two percent ten year may seem like a good value as compared to something in Europe or Asia, which it is.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I like to joke if you had started the year and sent a note out to your clients saying I'm shorting stocks and I'm hedging my short stocks by shorting bonds. That would have worked extremely well. And I'm also reading your work, Hedge Fund Telemetry. I'm noticing that the sentiment for bonds is low, the sentiment for stocks is low. What do you make of this sort of, everyone's selling stocks and bonds at the same time?”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so there's cash and then there's bond, which is bonds, which is taking on credit risk. But in the case of treasury bonds, just interest rate risk. And you can go out to as long as 30 years. And a lot of investors and also hedge fund managers have for the past 30 years, let's say, bought stocks and hedged it by going very long bonds and doing so with leverage. The sort of civilian version of this portfolio is called 60-40. 6% stocks, 40% bonds. And most of the time, there is a, let's see, negative correlation between the price of bonds and the price of stocks, a positive correlation between the price of stocks and the bond yields. However, Tommy, as I'm sure you've noticed, year to date in 2022, that has not been the case. Long-term bonds have sold off a longtime short-term”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I don't think so. I don't think there's enough panic. And one thing also that happens in real bad bear markets is there's very little places to hide. And that's because a fund manager that's, let's say, diversified properly or a lot of, you know, let's just say a mutual fund or hedge fund or large money management firm, they may have pockets of stocks, bonds, crypto, metals, everything. They're going to throw everything overboard and reduce risk across the board. They're not going to say, I'm going to hold on to Amazon. I'm going to hold on to Apple. No, they basically will reduce risk across the board. And it's hard to find safe places. You're going to outperform in cash and down markets. Pro tip”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm like, oh God, you know, but that was the top. You can just see it. Basically what people do on mainstream financial media or any media is they're reporting on what's already happened rather than what is going to happen. And it's easy for them because People, they absorb that. Oh, yeah, look at GameStop. And that just lured people in. And when the markets are getting killed and they're talking about it on the news, people are selling. They're panicking. It creates a sense of panic. I'm going to buy panic and I'm going to sell euphoria. That's how I'm wired. I've just done that my whole life.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That are not professional investors or traders is to watch market sentiment on their own. And they can do it by, let's say, if the stock market gets clobbered and killed and it's Lester Holt is on TV talking about it on the NBC Nightly News, that's probably the bottom. And when the GameStop thing was going on, it was the first thing on the local news here in New York and Connecticut, and Lester Holt had it on there. And that was the absolute top right there. And even my daughter, who I have three daughters and my youngest daughters in college, she's a film major, and she called me and she goes, Dad, what's going on with this game stuff? She's never, ever asked me about an investment or anything. She goes, all these guys are planting on their, they're doing it on their phone.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They've done exceptionally what the stock's done exceptionally well. But there aren't shorts in the stock anymore. Shorts have moved on and it became a market of call buyers or put buyers. And every time it goes down, you see the puts come scrambling in there. And then every time it goes up all the way up, you see the call buyers. And then they run out of steam. So it's really been a market of heavy option buying and not selling option buying. And that's just go into the highly speculative nature of the last year of how people have invested and getting rich. One of the things that I tell people all the time”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the funny thing about some shorts that in the last year that are so obvious in Tesla is one of them because the fundamentals are they don't make sense, their valuation is crazy. It's a cold stock and people you either love it or you hate it.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Way too at the wrong time. So that to me is the risk. And the thing is on my call about the S&P and the Nasdaq and generally all the other indices, if we break the recent low, now that will basically puncture all the people that bought recently the lows, hoping that we were going to move right back to old highs and they'll have to sell. We have to just always remember we have this huge amount of inflows that could turn into future sellers and that is a concern. Now the other hand, if I see a stock that has a lot of shorts in it, I look at those people as future buyers. So that's the risk. It can get ugly real quick.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But on the other side, on the downside, the problem is you have these down moves and the first ones get, you know, by the dip people in there, and then it goes up a little, nominal, and then it fails again, and that you lose that support. And each time that happens, you're going to get fewer investors or traders coming back to that name And people generally buy after moves happen and they generally sell at the lows.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being oversold is the good and the bad with being oversold, just like there's the good and bad of being over Things can get more oversbought. And when you see something that is over, let's start at the overbought side. When you see things that are overbought, it generally lower or lures. It's like short bait, okay? It's just like you're throwing chum in the water for shorts to nibble on. And so they'll short real high. I like to find exhaustion signals. I like to find low short interest. And I like to see those after those moves. And then maybe a little turn down. But that's, it's like, if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong. And that's what happened with a lot of stocks like Tesla that just were gamma squeezed higher in the shorts gave up and moved on.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One of the things that came into the market over the last few years was we had a lot of new investors. It was a get rich quick scheme. And what's the next thing Dave Portnoy was going to recommend? And people chased stocks and cryptos that were going straight up. And when the bubble popped on all those, they all went down basically about the same amount. My view is. I'll be more than happy to find something that's beat down with a positive catalyst ahead that I see happening in the next couple months.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I am very much disciplined in the sense that I size my positions appropriately. Now I'm not a maximalist and I don't put all my money in one particular thing. That is a difficult thing. It could be a great thing, but it also you run the risk of blowing yourself up. And a lot of people have put themselves in risky things and the most speculative garbage things hoping to get rich. I have a 5% max limit on a position size and I have a 15% sector position weight. So I can't go too far over to one side. As far as being long and short, I can be 100% short. I can be 100% long. Generally I'm not. except at extremes in March of twenty twenty I was very, very long. So that's how I operate and I'm more into the make money reasonably rather than I just don't need to take too much risk.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think that when you look at Governors, and they're going to put pressure on the federal government to Legalize or create the safe banking act. And that is a catalyst, I think we'll see upside of maybe 50% with these names. And I don't like to say... 50%, but they're down. So a 50% move only gets them halfway back to where they were. Maybe they'll go more, but I think it's a huge opportunity. I'm very patient with them. One thing also.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can transact business like a liquor store or any other business. And that's been a big hurdle. And once that goes through, and that's on Biden's agenda, that's a Schumer agenda. And some of the big states like New York, Connecticut, New Jersey around here have passed cannabis legality. So they have to get this done. so that soon so they these companies can set up their operations and Massachusetts I just heard this Had more revenue from cannabis sales than alcohol sales.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I'm not a partake, I don't partake in the cannabis rituals, but I will say that I'm looking at, I like to find catalyst and themes. And so I started buying the catalyst or the cannabis stocks down about 55% off their highs. And this started in November, and I added some recently at the lows. And so I'm down a little on some of those, but not much. And there's catalysts that I like. One is there's going to be regulation coming as a, shockingly enough. Sit down, everybody, bipartisan, the Republicans and Democrats actually agree on legislating cannabis federally. And one of the things they have to do is create a banking act so cannabis companies.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, they're crowded, they just reported earnings I mean Apple's earnings were really good. I shorted it on the lift and they're again they're crowded and Amazon's earnings were good but they guided down grotesquely low the previous quarter so they hit their lowered guidance numbers and look they're a great company but They make all their money with AWS and all the packages you know we're getting toothpaste sent to our house with a box and it doesn't make them any money But one thing I am long, I'm long the cannabis sector.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I'm generally not short. I worked for, I mean, our firm, our hedge fund was a $5 billion hedge fund. And for the 11 years that we were in business, we were basically net short a lot. And we were just good at finding shorts up markets. And when the market did go down, we were positive barely for the year in 2008. So that was, you know, worked. I mean, we were in the defensive type of hedge fund. I mean, there are those out there that are mostly long leveraged hedge funds. And when the tide goes out, they're exposed and they get hit down pretty hard.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And also, maybe if it goes up 3%, you'll get stopped out. So it's important for people watching this know that, and it's also a fraction of your entire portfolio, some of which, perhaps most of which, is long. Are you net short or net long?”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're starting to short larger cap names. Some of the mega cap names are starting to see more shorts. And it's not enough as a percentage of their float to really make a big difference, but it's a percentage dollar percentage that's starting to increase. And it's not that shorts can be wrong. Shorts can be right for a period of time. But they're starting to look at liquidity right now. And that to me says that, hey, maybe Apple can go lower. I'm short Apple, I'm short Amazon, I'm profitable on those currently. And those are crowded names with very few shorts. And if you told somebody you wanted to short Apple or Amazon, they would look at you like, how could you do that? You know, they're such great companies, but they're crowded. There's been exhaustion signals and they're not a lot of shorts there. I'm not looking for.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The one thing that I will say that has been interesting on this bounce is that the most shorted baskets, well, actually month today, actually rolling month, it's down 2.6%. So shorts have actually won. And then if you go year over year, the most short basket is it's down 27.75%. So there's been a really good market for the two-sided long and short market. You have the Russell growth in there as well. They're down 25% year over year. There's a lot of, there's been a lot of concentration in the shorts with the smaller cap names. And there's a lot of hairy stories on a lot of those names. But the shorts have made money. Now, the problem, or well, one of the things I'm starting to see now, and it could be this, the plates are moving, you know, the tectonic plates are starting to move for liquidity.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I also look at my timeframes that I look at, I look at some shorter term 60-minute charts for tactical trading, and then I look at daily and then weekly for a more intermediate term. And the weekly still has an upside sequential countdown in play. So therefore, the daily could just pause things for a few days and look, I think you also have Russia, Ukraine negative catalyst that could cause another spike in crude. I'm not sure in crude. I'm not shorting energy stocks just because this catalyst is fluid. I don't know what's going to happen. And hopefully we don't have any. War or anything like that, but there is that risk. And I'd rather short something when I don't have that type of headline risk.”
2022-02-17 · Forward Guidance · Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT