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Tony Tjan

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2020-03-31
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2020-03-31
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  1. On host terraces of Italy to our own group putting together our song list, to the virtual happy hours that are emerging across the social sphere. These small things keep us connected. They remind us who we are and they remind us that in the end we are all just so very human. And it's going to be our collective humanity that gets us through this. I really, really believe that. So lots of love to everyone out there. Let's win this. We're in it together and we'll get to the other side together.

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  2. Whatever gives you self care, whether it's meditating, yoga, doing your nails, whatever makes you feel a little more like you, that's what you have to try to do a little bit each day. For me today, it was just waking up, thinking about what I want to wear. As much as I love having worn sweats over the last two weeks at home, I decided that I should start today by wearing a tie and a new shirt. As my kids asked me what meeting I had, I said, I had a really important meeting coming up that day. They said, which one? I said, well, it's meeting this new day with its new challenges. You know, just making an effort to do something that makes you feel more ready, as small and as silly as that might sound is critical. We need balance and just finding joy in those small things from the humanity we see, from people singing on.

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  3. Malux was to create and celebrate many moments of self-care. And during these times of stress and challenge, we absolutely need to find that balance and remember the small things, taking a short walk, remembering to breathe, not just when your watch tells you to do so. And if I'm permitted to give a shout out to one of Wait What's properties listening to content that is reflective like meta.

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  4. Crisis. And I certainly try to imagine some of those people before critical communications or critical meetings or critical discussions and channel their spirit towards that upcoming conversation that I need to have. And finally, patience. Just remember, this too shall pass. And we all have to try to be stronger on the other side. But remembering that it's about the long term that's most critical and being patient and stoic will help you think a little bit more clearly. And I guess lastly, as I go back to that theme of purpose that I just started with, I'm reminded of the purpose behind why we started Minilux. Yes, it's a nail care brand. And yes, it's a set of nail care studios across the country. But the real underlying purpose of why we start

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  5. First and foremost, to maintain and even keel, it's absolutely wise to get diverse perspectives. You want to have your sounding board. You want your trusted counsel. So get more input and delegate wherever you can. But people are equally needed to help you with your vulnerability. These are times when we have to find those moments where we can go to our confidants, whether they're at home or at work and let it go a little bit. It's okay to cry. It's okay to shed your vulnerability. That's what people are for, to help offer you the peer support, to offer you the virtual oxytocin that we all need during these times. And as I think of the theme of people, try to think of those that you love and respect the most who have managed during these times.

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  6. It's a great question, Bob, on how we actually manage during these times of stress and often not just stress, but stress coupled with sadness. It makes me think back on the founding values that we put in place for my venture firm Q-Ball. And we have a 3P mantra of purpose people and patience. You know, during these times of stress, perhaps the most important thing to center on is your purpose, reminding yourself of your North Star that very reason that you started your venture. And equally, it's absolutely critical to remind your people of this overarching purpose. This is especially true during times of crises. The second P on people is that during these moments, you need more than ever those that you trust and love around you.

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  7. It gives me courage. But I don't know if I'll see it in my lifetime, Bob, but I'm a long-term thinker. So maybe my kids will benefit in the next generation

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  8. Yeah, I think we're going to learn. I think as people become more educated, I mean, we're all talking about COVID-19 and novel virus. And I think as we become more educated that it's a world where it really must be us together. And we saw elements of this prior to COVID-19 as for the first time businesses started talking about the possibility that Milton Friedman wasn't completely right, that business is not solely for the purpose of profit, but for a collective stakeholder set, that, you know, this is why I believe in long-termism. I believe in long-termism when I see the spirit of those people who are out there as the heartbeat of our economy, who are helping each other, and a lot of people are trying to help them. And when I think about all the things that are possible, if we could just be more long-term and more educated to the benefits of that long-term.

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  9. A smaller set of competition, but more in the positive spirit of the fact that we hopefully have greater permission to sell to a wider range and wider set of conscious consumers out there in the new normal. I'm an optimist, so I'm hoping.

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  10. These companies are going to be best suited for that new, new normal. And by that, that's not just a math equation. My hope in thinking about long-termism is that this is going to be a reminder and shock to the system that a level of new conscious consumerism might be a good thing. Shopping local, shopping ethically, shopping sustainably, supporting legitimate fair labor workers. places like Minilux trying to do economic development opportunity for them in safe, super hygienic modalities. I hope overall this conscious consumerism comes about. And that's where and how we're trying to think. Who are the representative companies that now have the best chance possible to hopefully take advantage of a reset world, not just in the negative spirit of having a

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  11. Yeah, I think there was a letter from various representatives in Michigan that came out to begin to state the health public policy of what will happen when their ICU units and hospitals become overcrowded and you have to make life or death choices between who stays in the ICU, who stays on the ventilator, who stays with the doctors who can care for them, that impossible decision that you need to make is one that really has no great answer. The only filter I would probably use on long-termism is to think about where the world might go. Because in making that choice, I think how we will end up having to make it is to at least project out over the next few years. And in this world of new, new, new, new, new, new, new normal that will come about, which one of

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  12. Stay connected to your groups. They will want to come back, but don't lose that goodwill. People need human connection now more than ever. And the fact that we have social distancing makes it so much harder. So send out virtual oxytocin to everyone. People need it. We're desperate for it. So use caution, have compassion, but have courage and be inspired by these stories of what people are doing. That's what has lifted me, Bob. I just look at what they have done. And these are the stories from the field.

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  13. Most sterile, most hygienic nail care offering we believe in the world, they package this excess before studios had to close and delivered these offerings. And perhaps in the most moving case was a woman who used the capabilities of her hands to hand sew several masks for doctors in this time of shortage. It's incredible show of humanity that they have reached out with concern, with anxiety. Most calls have been about thank you, about thanking us for helping them get their unemployment benefits, helping them get a little bit extra. We are on calls with them frequently, weekly calls with the whole staff. I think that's another piece of advice for anyone going through this right now.

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  14. Well, the first amazing thing, and it'll break your heart, is that so often is the case during these times that it's the people who have less that use these moments to find productive ways that they can apply their talents and with great courage and positive audacity do great things. So I learned this week from a group of mini-lux folks, people that are currently not with their jobs who had done everything from volunteering to package, ship, put together notes to send to doctors at places like Mass General Hospital and Plano's Medical Center, critical PPE supplies, specifically everything from medical grade disinfectant wipes because we have the

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  15. To say that this is like a quick and easy one click process. So I think we need to make this easy. I think we need to triage and prioritize and make sure those that are most vulnerable get it first. And we need to call upon our collective humanity. This is not going to get solved just top-down government. I think that I'm lifted mostly by the spirit of people, whether it's clients, friends, the American population, to rise to the occasion with courage and humanity like times like this. These folks, all of these hourly workers in this country really represent a hero class to our country. And they're doing amazing things and they're incredibly resilient. And we owe it to them to make sure they not only come out the other side, but they come out stronger. And it's great that there's some short-term...

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  16. Of money for many people in this country, it could buy groceries for a while and get people over through the hump. We need to allow their banks to give them forgivable short-term emergency loans. We need to allow the business owners like ourselves to get a level of emergency relief funding that we can continue to employ our people without all the contingencies out there. I mean, it's amazing that we can get a bill through this, but I don't know if you've looked at it. But imagine the average person trying to wade through 800 plus pages and just try clicking. I encourage anyone on the masters of scale program to click on the emergency relief fund loan application and look at all the boxes and liabilities. And even if you have a sophisticated MBA, I would say that you would be somewhat

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  17. Basic math. If you think of, I'm now abstracting to an average hourly worker and pick a number, say $40,000 a year that they might make and assume that there's some tip element on that of 20%. Some of that may or may not be reported. That takes them to $50,000 a year. If you're able to get through unemployment, that drops you down on your reportable wages down to $20,000 annualized salary. And whether you're single or a family or four or five, that's a tough run rate to go on. So I think that the first thing the CARES package that's been proposed and getting $1,200 to people, we need to get that as fast as possible to people. We really need to get that as fast as possible. $1,200 is a massive amount.

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  18. Well, I think the best solution we have, let me just say this, the light that has lifted my spirit, including work that you're doing and the whole wait what team has been to really see this ray of light through the cracks, which is the work of collective humanity. And people have jumped in to try to help. There's a variety of different NGOs. We, like others, have set up economic resiliency funds to try to get people to jump in and buy a gift card on our Minilux website or support through Venmo, give a virtual gratuity. And that's an important point, by the way, Bob. It's not just hourly worker. It's also people with gratuity that are depending on gratuity. In terms of what we need and what could have been done faster, I think it's useful to go through some

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  19. It's great that we have some of this new bill helping for some short term, but it saddens me overall that the entire retail services, small business landscape will have a reset. You may see as high as 30, 35% of businesses not make it through here.

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  20. Yeah, I mean, I think that you immediately, when this happened, you have to go into extreme cash conservation basis. As one of my CEOs reminded me during these times of crisis, what we need more than ever is an attitude approach and leadership style of having love win over fear. And I think that pretty much sums up the situation. I think it's obvious that you need to do that so that you can hopefully provide a place on the other side. You need to play extreme defense, but it's absolutely heart-wrenching to do this process. And you try to do it as compassionately as possible. You try to offer as much as you can. But it's gut-wrenching. And we have to remember that this is going to have some repercussions well beyond just a post-COVID-19.

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  21. Billion plus to big businesses. And the question becomes, how quickly can we get it to the people and can we get it to the right people in time?

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  22. Let's be clear. I think for some folks that are rallying on Wall Street and going from minus XXX percent to plus 20% in a few days and applaud a fiscal stimulus plan for many people, this is a personal relief emergency plan. It's not a stimulus plan for them. It's a relief plan. They're on standby needing this. And it goes well beyond our mini-lux group. We have another business Roti, which has, it's a Mediterranean grilled food concept. We have probably 700 people hourly that are out there in the same way. Most of America depends on businesses like that for their weekly livelihood. And we need to remember that. So I'm grateful that it's there. It's going to take time to get to people. It's a large amount to small businesses, but it's equally 500.

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  23. The systems are crashing. The bills are out, and I applaud Congress for trying to get individuals and small businesses in. But it's going to be weeks, if not months, before some of this really benefits the smaller businesses that make up 99% of this country's economy

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  24. In terms of a different life and needs than what you and I are doing today and where you and I are and where even most of the listeners are, which is they're applying for unemployment in Texas right now with a site that's crashed. They've been without work for some weeks. And even for all our efforts of trying to lead with humanity, lead with love over fear and paying people through last Friday, cashing out all their PTO, offering health benefits for 30 days, offering multilingual help to try to get them onboarded onto UI. The reality is that many people still haven't been able to even claim their unemployment. Today we're at 3.3 million jobless, four to five times the highest level since 1982's Great Recession.

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  25. I mean, yeah, I mean, this is a company that more than just funding myself and my partners co-founded it just over a decade ago. And when you try to build a business and you try to build one, especially that is purpose driven, you never really sign up to let anyone go, even if it feels temporary. They're part of a family. It has been incredibly distressing. first and foremost just trying to do the right thing quickly so that we can do everything possible to make sure we have something on the other side but then just watching what so many of the people go through you know the media recently is just tooting a lot about the stimulus bill ui benefits but we have to think of the reality of folks on the ground that are 15 standard deviation

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  26. The social justice that we need to return to these people that are purveyors of self-care. We often view and call them nail technicians. I would never call them a nail technician. They're at minimum a nail designer and really a purveyor of self-care. And all of us have to think of those who have been caring for us for all these years, whether it's that waiter, that bartender, that nail designer, that waxing editor, that barber. Think about all those who just might be disproportionately affected, minimally reach out, pick up the phone, and say thank you.

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  27. Is not the hard part. What's the hard part is really thinking about the lives you might be impacting and how you have to make sure that not just your business gets to the other side, but all of those 500 plus people, not just in that business, but I would say across the states who are part of the economic engine on the ground floor that really make our country what it is, that's what I'm worried about. My heart's out there for not just that group, but in the nail care business, Bob, there are about 400,000 workers in this country. It is either the second or third largest independent employer of vocational trade and likely the largest of women and immigrant independent workers. So it's a very vulnerable class right now. And we forget.

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  28. And so we really tried to have a vision that would elevate an entire industry through super hygiene, economic opportunity for inclusive class and community empowerment. And to your point, yes, it was going really well. We have a terrific CEO in Zoe Chrislock, who formerly ran Nike Canada. But in the period of 12 days, we watch going from 552 people down to seven and effectively down to zero revenue. And, you know, the math and the fiduciary duty and the logic of having run businesses before

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  29. Yeah, I think we're trying to build a platform brand that includes our nail studios that do nail services and waxing. We're offering a reimagined, better clean, ethical, safe set of nail polishes because most of the products out there have very high levels of toxicity, carcinogenic, and cause neurological damage. By the way, many of the nail salons that have been reviewed by the CDC have already pre-COVID-19 up to 10% infection rate of passing various infections like nail fungus, the HePC to other diseases. So for us, it was really important to fundamentally set a safe standard, not just for nail care, but, you know, we don't really think about it. When you go to the barbershop and you see that mystery blue liquid called barberside, that probably doesn't kill the stuff like COVID-19. It's probably not that great.

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  30. Of nail salons will notice that it's unimaginable that this type of industry can exist as it does in the 21st century with the level of toxicity, poor labor practices, lack of standards, and lack of hygiene.

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  31. Yeah, I think it's a chain of nail salons as much as Starbucks is a chain of coffee shops. I think part of the inspiration we drew from when we tried to think of how can we use purpose design and technology to transform an entire industry that's been forgotten or neglected, we ended up picking nail care as our industry. We set that challenge out there to say what could be Starbuckable. So we're trying to Starbuck the nail care industry and I call it the nail care industry because it's not just the nail salons, it's the nail care products, the treatments, the actual protocols all across that space that represent the most used beauty service in the world, but that's the least regulated. And anyone who's walked into a typical nail salon or perhaps read the seminal 2015 New York Times piece by Sarah Maslanair on the dangerous

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  32. When we do get to the other side, because we have to remember that this too is not permanent and this too shall pass. But it's a hell of a time whilst it's going on

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  33. At me that great investing is really about psychology, not about any smarts. You have to buy low and sell high. And it turns out that that's much harder to do. So during this time, we have to keep one eye laser focused on defense because it is about survival, Bob. We have a number of retail services businesses that never could have imagined this level of catastrophic disruption to a business. So we have to keep one eye laser focused on everything we can do to get to the other side. Whilst doing that, should you have sufficient capital? And in many cases, many of us are becoming more limited on that given the scale of this very severe COVID-19 crisis, you want to be scanning for opportunities to allow you to be best positioned for offense.

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  34. Well, I think a mutual acquaintance, at least of ours, I think it was Bob Metcalf who had said, we tend to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term. And whether that's Metcalfe's rule or whether it should be credited to another wise person, I think the concept and principle is right. I think that the value of Stoicism or patience right now is a little bit of a calming force, but I'd be completely lying if I said that during these times you can't help but feel the short-term pain, the emotion, the roller coaster, and how you maintain perspective. I think this is true in operating companies. I think it's true in investing. A great friend of mine who actually co-led Tiananmen Square and has become one of the best value investors in this country. When I asked how he's become so successful, he reminded me.

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  35. And be the best supporting actor to people in places which normally would not get it. There are numerous innovation deserts out there. There's numerous opportunities for more inclusionary innovation, but we have to change our time frame. We need patient capital to solve those things that might actually positively move the world forward while they disrupt categories.

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  36. Is change our time frame. And as humans, we are cognitively wired almost to be short-term. You know, this is why we have trouble with diets or quitting smoking, always believing that things can change the next day. Our political cycles, the way we invest, the fact that the vast majority of investing today is momentum trading that people are doing, these last few days. If we actually just did some things based on the fundamentals, you might have a chance to solve for our bigger purpose.

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  37. Was a very different model for venture investing. We wanted to have venture investing where we would invest in early growth concepts that might actually have the chance to turn into durable growth, meaning that what if you imagine a world where your filter for investing was, might this last for 50 years, just 50 years? How does that change your thinking? And the concept of microwave capitalism is that, look, most things coming out of microwave don't taste that good. They tend to be better simmered or slow roasted. If you think of the most perfect salt made in the world, it just comes from, you know, seawater, a bit of sun, and a lot of time in its purest form. And for us, we believe that there are so many long-term opportunities and long-term issues that can be solved if we just did one thing.

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  38. Sure. Thanks for the question, Bob. I think on the concept of long-termism, it really came about from having been a founder and business builder over many years. And one that's had both good fortune and misfortune of seeing some of these incredible crises of this scale in the past from the dot-com crash to starting one of my first positions on the date of 9-11 to watching the incredible volatility through the 2008 financial crises. I can honestly say I haven't witnessed anything of this size and magnitude that has come with this swiftness and has impacted at least certain sets of the population disproportionately. But in terms of how that relates to long-termism, it really made us realize when we started Q-Ball that what we wanted to have

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  39. Today we're at 3.3 million jobless, four to five times the highest level since 1982's Great Recession. Nail studios. In the period of 12 days going from 552 people down to seven, effectively down to zero revenue. All of these hourly workers in this country really represent a hero class. They're incredibly resilient. For many people, it's not a stimulus plan for them. This is a personal relief emergency plan. See the spirit of those people who are out there as the heartbeat of our economy, who are helping each other. The end, we are all just so very human. It's going to be our collective humanity that gets us through this. I really, really believe that.

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