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Torsten Slok

lines on the record: 73
first: 2025-01-30
most recent: 2025-01-30
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“As when you and I always talk about what is the economic outlook, and then you can start in some corner, but I still need to paint you a picture, a mosaic that ultimately has some different pieces. And these charts are exactly meant to be different pieces in what is going on in the economy and more broadly, what is it in financial markets that we should be talking about, and that's relevant. And sometimes some of these pieces in the mosaic may look insignificant and not very critical. But in other times, a chart could simply also be, what's the trend in inflation? Should we expect inflation to go up now that Trump has been talking about tariffs, now that we may have restrictions on immigration, now that we may lower corporate tax rates?”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It could be a lot more expensive than that. And all that to your question is you say, well, why are we looking at this? So without writing a long, long 30-page paper with 30 footnotes, just a simple chart saying, hey, check this out. This is something we are thinking about. You can say, oh, I don't really care about this. Why should I worry about how many people again go to Broadway shows or how many people go to the Statue of Liberty or what is the cost of staying overnight at a hotel? But it still is something that at least is one dimension to thinking about a lot of the different things that are going on. And that is the benefit. And that's what I'm enjoying so much of producing one every day because then I write about something today and tomorrow I can write about something else.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you and I laugh at it sometimes, and you should also laugh at it sometimes and say, why are we looking at this? But in fact, it is still the case that if you think about it, well, hotel costs are important for a number of different reasons, not only from a commercial real estate investing perspective, but it's also important to get some understanding of how expensive is it now the average price for staying at hotel at the moment in New York City is more than $400. That is really expensive. Think about also how much that has gone up, how much of that has gone up after COVID. That has implications for how you think about what is occupancy rates for hotels, not only in New York, but nationwide. That has implications for how well is the consumer doing. That has implications for tourism. It has just so many ramifications, a lot of these things. Even how many people go to Broadway shows, also tells you something about, is there a willingness among consumers to spend on discretionary spending, something that's a little bit expensive? The average Broadway show ticket cost around $150.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This is a really good question, and you are not the only one to probably think about that among the listeners. For those who do subscribe to the Daily Spark are probably scratching their heads sometimes and saying, why are we even talking about this? We also have data sometimes that we look at for how many people are visiting the Statue of Liberty. We also look at how many people go to Broadway shows.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Private equity. White paper was about asset back finance. White paper was about all kinds of aspects of what are private markets today. And what we also do on the ApolloAcademy.com homepage is, of course, that we also produce, as you just mentioned, a daily Spark email, which is a chart that we produce every day, which is some interesting topic that we are thinking about. And we also try to have, by the way, we also have podcasts, and we also have videos, but we try to generally have material so that people and the public out there can be informed about what's going on in alternatives and in private markets at the moment.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the idea with the Apollo Academy is there are really several different purposes. So first of all, Apollo Academy is really the prime place to go if you want to understand alternatives because it is often, of course, the case that people in financial markets, everyone spends so much time on S&P 500 because S&P 500 is what we all discuss all day long. But if you look at businesses with employment in the US, there are 6 million firms in the US that have employment. So the fact that we spend time on 500 companies out of 6 million businesses, it just doesn't make too much sense. So that's why private markets and what's going on in private markets, both in private equity and also, of course, in private credit is a very important part of the US and the global economy. So that's what we try to do in Apollo Academy, namely have various educational materials, white papers about private credit, white papers about private credit.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so at Deutsche Bank, I spent essentially all my time on going to clients with sales. So we would go to Pimco, BlackRock, Brevin Howard, all the hedge funds, all the real money managers, and we would sit down and talk about what.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am having someone in the organization who says, Oh, the Fed will not do anything, but everyone else can then sit around and say, oh, I disagree with that view. I think the view should be different. So there is no easy solution to this problem, but it is the case that Deutsche, it used to be the situation where we would sit around the table and fight it out and end up with a view on what do we think is the outlook for, in this case, the Fed, the ECB, or the Bank of Japan or any other central bank or any other market we were looking at.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, as you and I have been talking about for many years, different banks have different strategies. So some banks have a house view. Other banks have a house of views. So that means that in this case Deutsche Bank was run in a way, and I think that does make sense, where there was no strong household every day on everything because we have to let individuals free in the sense that different people have different types of expertise in different areas. So at DB, we would sit down around the table, think about the Federal Reserve or the ECB or the Bank of Japan, and we would then say, okay, whoever was the main person responsible for that central bank, what is your view? Let's discuss, do we all agree with this? What are the arguments why this is right? What are the arguments why this is wrong? This gives a healthy debate. This gives a healthy way of saying we have now turned every stone and we end up where we publish the view that, let's say, that the Fed, for example, today, we'll talk about this later, will be keeping interest rates on hold. But that discussion, of course, is a very important part of the debate instead of just having, well,”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that means you build strong connections with people, you work with them in stress situations, in less stressed situations, in good and bad times. And I had worked with Binky not directly under him and also David Foggaslanda, but they were both, of course, very important employees at the IMF. And when they decided to move to Deutsche Bank, I decided to say, well, I know these people really well. And Binky, indeed, even today, as you know, he is still the chief equity strategist at the Deutsche Bank. He has some incredible frameworks and I have learned a lot from him. We'll talk more about this later in terms of you need to have a framework when you talk about things. And he was the first one and still is today is telling me you need to have a framework. What is the framework, why you are thinking the stock market will go up or the dollar will go down or the Fed will high rates. All these things came from a discussion from Binky and David and several others who, by the way, also have a PhD in economics because they were the ones who got...”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So a very important part of your question also here is that it is absolutely critical to remember that inside organizations such as the IMF and the OECD, you establish long-term relationships with people that really almost in a lot of cases basically last for almost your whole career or your whole life.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I started here in New York because some of my former colleagues from the IMF had moved to Deutsche Bank, David Foggoslander and Binkichada, and they called and asked if I wanted to come to the US and work here with them. And this was in 2005. It was not our plan. My wonderful wife, Julie, and I had our first son. His name is Fleming, and it was a 2003, and we lived in Paris. We all enjoyed it. We were actually trying to get a bit closer to Copenhagen. But then out of the blue, Binky called and said, hey, would you like to come to New York and work with us? And my experience from the IMF and the OECD and then this opportunity to be in Deutsche Bank with some friends and colleagues that I had known for many years and who are still my really good friends today, of course, meant that I said, well, why don't we try this? And Julie was up for it. So we moved our family over here from Paris in 2005.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Another, sometimes they say other examples are this is where it has not worked very well to try for you and me and the US and Denmark and all other countries in the world to have an example of how should we design our pension system? How do we make sure that there are enough retirement savings for our population? How has it been done in other countries? So it's really an organization that really is a think tank, but it really is a best practice think tank where you get experiences and you get practices from other countries that then can be used again in the countries that are participating.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the IMF has money and gives a loan to countries, whereas the OECD is really just a think tank. It used to be really mainly more wealthy countries, meaning developed markets, meaning the G7 plus a few others. But now it has broadened out a bit more to also have Brazil, Chile, other countries that you would normally categorize as emerging markets. But the OECD basically is an organization in Paris that lays out best practice across countries. So as a government, you think constantly about what is best practice for healthcare policies, for pension policies, for all kinds of other policies when it comes to climate change, when it comes to really all areas of policymaking. And the idea is to get together in Paris for the OECD countries to come and say, what experiences have you made when you put together a pension system? What experiences have we made? And the IMF then writes a report and says, these are the ways that people have done it that work.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was incredible. I had never obviously looked, thought about Mongolia too much before. So the fact that you suddenly are involved in also the whole process at the IMF, which is very important, you basically have a country that has some macroeconomic problems. Then there is a process of them going to the board of the IMF and the executive board of the IMF then has to discuss under what conditions do we want to give a loan to this country. And that process of giving a loan, in some cases the IMF says yes, you can have a loan. In other cases, the IMF says, no, you cannot have a loan because you're not willing or able to meet the conditionality that comes with borrowing money from the IMF. And often countries come to the IMF when they're not able to borrow in public markets. And that's why the IMF plays this special role of having conditionality, having conditions associated with borrowing that means that you can borrow but only if you do these things that the global community thinks is a good idea and in some cases might be.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it is quite an experience to come to an emerging market when you are just around 30 years old and you suddenly sit there with the central bank governor, you sit down with the Minister of Finance, and of course there's a whole team. I was the most junior person, and you try to think about what are the macroeconomic problems for this country. How can we get this country back on track? Under what conditions should they borrow, all those things, a very critical part of the education you get at the IMF, namely learning to analyze and understand an economy from a macroeconomic perspective?”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You absolutely have to work your way up, but the IMF has this great philosophy that young people who start in the organization throw them on deep water and in this case that means in IMF language that you need to go on a program country. Program country is a country that normally has some IMF loan or is drawing on some IMF facility. And in my case, I was pulled into working on Mongolia. Ulan Baton in January, where it was about as cold as it is here in New York City today”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I just got my free education and then left. But I am still both a Danish citizen. I'm also a US citizen. I'm trying to get the best and make the most of both”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everyone has access to healthcare. Everyone has access to free education. And then you just have to do your homework, which is the hard part. And then, of course, complete your education. But it is absolutely a major difference, of course, too.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It happens to be the case in Denmark that tuition is completely free. In fact, you get a stipend, which is $3,000, $4,000 a month. On top of that, so this is as a PhD student. Also, get of course I needed to sell you this free healthcare and of course all this is subsidized and ultimately paid for by the Danish taxpayers.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, obviously all the super universities are here, so from publishing an academic perspective, it's really good, but it's just a little bit different in the sense that it's not, of course, having the same environment, the same seminars, and for that matter the same people, of course, that are in the US. But that being said, Europe still has some really incredible universities, including University of Copenhagen. You learn a lot. And as you know, European style, your degree is not an undergraduate degree in four years. It's a master's degree where you start out on day one studying economics, theology, humanities, and you do that for five years in a row. So you end up doing five years relatively specialized in this case in economics for me. And I found it just that the environment, everything that I experienced and went through there and still have many good friends at the university and of course in Copenhagen that I still talk to this.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I grew up in a small town called Ruskilde, which is 30 kilometers to the west of Copenhagen. You can see I'm so European still that I speak in kilometers rather than miles. And I studied economics in university. And then when I started doing my PhD, you have to go a year abroad. And I spent a year in Princeton in the Economics Department in 1995-96 when Ben Penenke was the chairman of the economics department. And then when I finished my degree, I applied for a job at the IMF in Washington, D.C. And economics has basically been the bread and butter of my life, at least my adult life for the last 25, 30 years.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thanks so much, Barry, and it's great to be here. Instead of sitting in a boat fishing in Maine, as you and I have done together before.”
2025-01-30 · Masters in Business · The US Economy and Trump Administration Policy with Apollo's Torsten Slok · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source