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Trace Mayer

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24
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2019-07-21
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2019-07-21
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  1. people. And that's really what being down here is about. I mean, if you're just running around collecting coins like Mario and some video game, like how long are you going to do that? You're going to still be thinking about that when you're 89? No, like you might be sorely disappointed. And so this concept of time preference, you know, there's what really matters in this life and why are we doing the things that we're doing? You know, if you believe that you're going to continue to exist after you pass on, like Dr. Ebenezer has written significantly about the neuroscientists, time preference is a very powerful thing in looking at all of this and looking at our motivations for why we're doing what we do. Hearing that from you and from a lot of other people that I run into at conferences and stuff, it helps me kind of feel warm and fuzzy about some of the work I've been doing, which is really what all of us want at the end of the day, isn't it? We want to feel happy and we want to feel like we're being a positive influence.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Or being able to do something better or more useful to their future self. And by extension, the people they have relationships with, whether it's significant others or their children or being able to take care of their parents or grandparents, these are things that I find very helpful because it's not about running around like this life thing. It's not about running around and like collecting a bunch of coins like Mario. No, seriously, like money is only going to make you more of who you are. You really have to figure out what motivates you and why do you do the things that you do? Like, do you want to be happy or not? Because you're going to master what you do. You could be a lawyer. You could be an accountant. Like you're going to master what you do. And I think a lot of what we do is, you know, we live life, but we don't live it very intentionally in a way that we become masters at the art of living, at having happiness and kind of joy in our own lives and then also in our relationships with other people.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. Thanks so much, Preston. It's experiences like that that really help continue giving me motivation for doing the work that I do. You know, another thing with Bitcoin, we shouldn't be too hard on ourselves. We have a tendency to judge our past self based on our current self's knowledge or understanding. But keeping that in mind, the most important trades you're going to make are with your future self. It's going to be this concept of time preference. And Bitcoin hits you right in the nose with a frying pan when it comes to that. It's things like that that when you've talked about the impact it's had on your life, the ones I really like, you know, I'm at a conference or something and someone's like, you know, I've been following you for years and I used to drink a bunch of alcohol and I used to smoke a bunch. Now I don't do any of that because I want to buy and hodl more Bitcoin. You know, seeing people get rid of habits that are just not helpful or healthy or useful to them in converting that into better habits.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. Well, hopefully Schnorr signatures will be on the horizon via Soft Fork. I'm also very, very interested in Mimble Wimble. I doubt that'll get rolled out in Bitcoin first. It's already been rolled out in Grin and Beam. It's any of this privacy and fungibility technology that I'm very interested in because Bitcoin, we've had to make a trade-off between Limited and a mountainous and fungibility. I think that's a good thing because if we can continue lowering the cost in terms of time, money, and privacy for this monetary sovereignty, that's just going to continue investing more and more power with the individual.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. That's when we're going to start seeing the effect on the energy markets, where the opportunity costs mining Bitcoin, especially if the price really runs. And one thing I definitely think that hash rate follows price and not vice versa. It's going to come online whether people want it to come online or not. What's you going to do? Like pass a law that you can't mine, it's just going to go somewhere else where it can or it's going to continue mining and it's going to be using block streams satellites or whatever censorship resistant technology is out there to use.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. Energy markets, when you look at them, they're highly regulated worldwide. In a lot of ways with how the proof of work and all of this works, like you're going to want to have some Bitcoin as a hedge against potential increases in the cost of energy because, you know, energy could get pretty expensive because the opportunity cost would be mining Bitcoin with it instead. The other thing is I think that we have just a ton of propaganda around energy. Look at the disaster of the European economies because they've been, quote, going green and all of this stuff. Bitcoin in so many ways uses the inefficient electricity, or at least it has been using it so far. It's electricity that's stranded in different areas. It's largely renewable, like hydroelectric dams, things of that nature. As the mining gets more and more competitive, you know, in these stranded energy cases get hooked into the Bitcoin blockchain,

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. You might start figuring out your personal strategy when it comes to how much capital you want allocated to this. I like to put the statistics and the probabilities in my favor.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. We've got the fundamental analysis, and I've gone over that a little bit with the sound money thesis, the store of value, the seven network effects. But then we've got kind of a technical analysis, because you make money when you buy. You need to buy undervalued assets. Now, one of the problems that a newbie would have is that they don't have any Bitcoin at all, right? And we're talking about an uncorrelated asymmetric return, sovereign equity-based monetary unit that's hard capped in supply where we know exactly how many there are. It's not like gold or silver. It's global. It's immutable. It's unconfiscatable. It's decentralized. And it's a digital store value. It's a way to transfer value over a communications channel. It doesn't really matter what the mayor multiple is. If you don't have any of it at all, you're totally naked on this huge wealth transfer that can happen. Now, if you've actually got some, oh, okay, like now.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. Czechoslovakia. I don't want to live in Venezuela where we don't have protection or property rights and people starve to death. I want people to be happy, healthy, free, and have monetary sovereignty. Those are core values to me that are more important than making money. Because this fight isn't necessarily about making money. It's about these fundamental human and civil rights. Money's power with power and with money you can accomplish a lot of good in the world. Hopefully we can accomplish a lot more good than the people who currently have that money in power.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. You can look at standard deviations in terms of that relative price, and that helps you understand like, well, is Bitcoin more expensive relative to its past history? Bitcoin's a little bit expensive right now, whereas when it was 0.5, it was really cheap. You know, I totally agree that equal opportunity moneymaker here, you know, what you going to do? Like, let's make some money. Like, that's the first network effect of Bitcoin. And so you want to buy it when it's a low mayor multiple because you have a greater probability of it going up. So you wanted to buy it when it was $3,000 a few months ago. And now, you know, might be a good time to necessarily not buy it and maybe sell some of it. And I actually use the mayor multiple a lot in how I decide to trade Bitcoin because, you know, I like to trade it because you can make more money doing that. You can make more Bitcoin. But I'm more about understanding the sound money aspect of this because I don't want to live in nice.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. How I kind of look at it is this could be a real doozy of one, you know, that'll blow your hair back because you look at the log chart of Bitcoin and I mean, I put out a tweet. We could be looking at 100 to $250,000 per Bitcoin by the time this particular bull market comes to resolution. Where are we currently at with it? You kind of named the mayor multiple. You know, I'd put out on several different interviews that I'd done, kind of the basic methodology, but you put a name to it. It's really not something I do myself, but it's out there now, right? And so we look at that mayor multiple and you'd mention like $3,000 Bitcoin. Well, when there was $3,000 Bitcoin, it was like 0.5 on the mayor multiple. And now we're at like 2.4 on the mayor multiple. And the mayor multiple is you take the current price divided by the 200-day moving average. And that gives you a relative price of like 0.5 or 2.4.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. And this is the other side of the and can perform economic calculation or they're going to be slaves to political elites. They're going to starve to death eventually because society won't be able to perform economic calculation in order to determine how good should be deployed in society for productive uses. Humanity is now getting forced to choose with Bitcoin. It's going to be a very exciting future to figure out how this gets played out. I mean, five years from now, you know, I don't think it's going to be that big of an issue. But think about it. Ten years ago, how big of a role did YouTube play in national elections? Like not that big. 15 years ago didn't play any role because it didn't exist. You know, and now YouTube is changing elections at a fundamental level. But we're talking about something that's might even be more powerful than YouTube. We're talking about the money.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. And it does all of these things at a much lower cost than anything else that has been invented in human history. You can now store $100 million and it can't be confiscated. It can't be seized. It can't be impeded. You store $100 million of gold. Guess what? They can come and kill you and take your gold. It doesn't work that way with Bitcoin. It's just going to force the issue for society in so many different ways. Once you take away that power over money from the state, invest it with the individual, that begins to change tons of things. And it does that because it's changing the economics of violence at a fundamental level. It's enabling the individual to secure protection for their private property at a much lower cost. And as a result, they don't need to acquire protection services at the cost that they were paying to the nation states. You know, because that's one of the reasons that the individual hires nation states, supposedly.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. And if states make anything legal tender, they can only make gold or silver legal tender under Article and Section 10 Clause 1. Guess what? That's unconstitutional. Well, how did it get that way? Executive Order 6102, Franklin Roosevelt had the federal government seize the gold. He attempted to pack the Supreme Court under the issue of economic substantive due process. Then we had the legislators outlaw ownership of gold and silver. They didn't re-legalize it till 1974. And after 1974 in the K City versus Dover, it squarely framed the issue of what is a dollar. And the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear the case. And so we have all three branches of government abdicate like shirking their responsibility to uphold the Constitution. When it comes to monetary repression. And so what's the average citizen supposed to do when it comes to claiming the right to protecting private property?

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. Transmission laws and money service business laws and know your customer and anti money laundering and like all these things trammel money in an attempt to bring it more and more under the jurisdiction kind of kicks the door down. You know, we've had a nationalized, we've had a largely socialized monetary unit that's contrary to the fundamental law of the land. The Federal Reserve Note is unconstitutional. The Constitution, it uses the phrase dollar twice once in the slave clause, which was highly contentious. So the term dollar needs to have a definition, which had got in the 1792 coinage, which is $371.25 grains of fine silver, 0.999 fine silver. And it's the states that make property rights and remedies. No state shall make anything but gold or silver, a tender in payment of debts. One, having the federal government make anything legal tender, they're not given that in Article 1, Section 8. They're not given that power.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. The first 10 years of Bitcoin, we've largely only seen a small amount of the speculation network effect take root. Maybe it'll take a few decades before we really get to like these other deeper network effects. You know, five years out, store of value is probably going to be a significant use case with Bitcoin. It's already got a multi-hundred billion dollar market cap. We've got central bankers like talking about it with very odd body language. Like they're stressed out. We got regulators that are heavily involved in the space now. We have legislators like in Wyoming, the work that Caitlin Long and I have been working on getting these 13 bills passed and then other jurisdictions that are both in the US and internationally that are passing different laws. So all this stuff is enabling because we have a lot of financial repression that happens through draconian laws like

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. If I'm going to encapsulate it in one word, we're establishing trust in an entirely new way. I learned double entry bookkeeping with my accounting degree. Bitcoin is the first practical implementation of triple entry bookkeeping. You know, when we're valuing derivatives, when we're valuing different assets and liabilities on all of these financial statements, well, guess what? You value the assets really high and the liabilities really low so that you get a better bonus. And there's discretion in that valuation of how that happens. So like pension accounting, you want to talk about a complete mess. It's how do you value the assets that are held in everybody's pensions? We're talking about hundreds of millions or even billions of people's lifetimes being stored in certain assets. And guess what Bitcoin does? It brings trust because you got triple entry bookkeeping. You got immutability. You got censorship resistance. Money is only one application of this. It's an internet protocol. So we're talking about

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. I came across it, I was like, oh my gosh, this is going to solve so many of the problems that the world has, especially with Bitcoin now. Nobody's going to, you're not going to get bailed out anymore. The days of that are done.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. Political theory behind sound money and all this stuff because it's in the Constitution. That's where I really got grounded in understanding monetary science and monetary theory. I'd read through that and then it was just a very natural fit when I came across Bitcoin because I'd also, you know, in high school and college years, I dealt with Nabster and then BitTorrent and censorship resistance and the development of these protocols. You know, that's how I really like came into Bitcoin because I actually wrote software, wrote different things that I needed to get done before I came to Bitcoin. So I came with like this macroeconomic perspective, this monetary theory perspective, understanding of software code from having written some on my own and then just being a digital native having grown up in the age of Napster and BitTorrent and online games and just all this stuff. And so Bitcoin just became a very natural fit for me when

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. And I took a particular course on American legal history and I needed to write like a 60 page paper. And I decided to write it on the history of money and currency in American law. For this paper, you know, I'm trying to research for it and I can't find anything. And so I go and ask the professor who was an attorney and a PhD in history. I was like, look, I can't find anything. It's like I need to write this paper. It's getting further into the semester. Can you help me like with the research? So he tries to do some research and he can't find anything either. And he's like, you know, if you can't find anything in the next week, you're going to have to change your topic because you're not going to have enough time. And sure enough, within that next week, somehow I don't remember exactly. I think I was dinking around through the internet, but I found pieces of eight by Dr. Edwin Vieira. And I had the library bring it in from LA. And then I started reading through that. And I was like, holy cow. Because it just started putting all the pieces together and the philosophical and the...

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. Year later, the Marvel stock had gone from like $6 to like $120. I mean, some huge amount. And I kind of looked at that. And with my like 12-year-old brain, I was like, man, I got to figure out how to play that game, you know, because that's way easier than taking soda cans in my backpack on the bus to like sell to kids to make a little bit of money. And eventually, you know, kind of like Warren Buffett, I got a soda machine, kind of like he got a pinball machine. I sold over a hundred thousand sodas before I graduated high school with that soda machine with an average profit margin of 33 cents a can. And then I took that money and invested. And so I started trading stocks. When I tried to approach the game of trading stocks and stuff, that's where I really delved into the macro picture. And so I was analyzing everything and I was like, oh, I want to own oil stocks. And so I had bought a bunch of Canadian oil trusts because they paid monthly dividends and did very well with those. But it wasn't until I was in love.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. And in middle school, I started playing online games. Sure, the games are fun, but what was more fun is that I would sell the items in the game in order to get US dollars. So I'm like selling swords and shields in these virtual games. And I also played Magic the Gathering. You know, I learned a lot of the skills that that game ends up teaching you in terms of probabilities and statistics and bluffing, you know, kind of like poker and all that stuff. I think I was 12 at the time and my father, he had had some of the different series licenses for securities and stuff. He wanted to teach me a lesson about investing as opposed to just doing entrepreneurship. For the lesson, he was like, you know, he's teaching me about stocks and he was like, what stocks should we buy? And I was like, oh, I think we should buy Marvel stock. And he was like, why should we buy Marvel stock? And I was like, because everybody at school is like reading those comic books. We didn't end up buying any Marvel students.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. Yeah, I'd love to do that. So you have to start with your parents, right? You know, I definitely have very good parents. And I wanted a bicycle when I was, I think I was like three or four for my birthday. So I asked my dad for it. And my dad was like, how are you going to buy it? And so we actually went out on family walks and collected cans that I'd feed to the golden goat and I collected enough money to buy my own bicycle. My mother, she always felt that it was extremely important for me to understand money, even from a very early age She did whatever she could to kind of encourage that and teach that between understanding kind of theory of money and this entrepreneurship with my father, I started selling otter pops to construction workers and lemonade. My dad was actually doing an MBA at the time when I was like, I think I was like three or four. And so I'd sit on his lap while he's reading his macroeconomics textbook while he's also working a full-time job. That kind of went on. And so then I'm in middle school.

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. Oh, thanks so much for having me. And likewise, it's to be able to be in this marketplace of ideas. And, you know, you're also in the ring. So ton of respect for doing that

    2019-07-21 · We Study Billionaires · TIP252: The Bitcoin Impact w/ Trace Mayer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT