YouSaid · the spoken record

Travis Kalanick

lines on the record: 54
first: 2026-03-19
most recent: 2026-03-19
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Creators, individuals, even within the enterprise, it's not yet amazingly great workflow tool. Not all of it, but most of it, right? Adobe is the classic creator tool. There is a whole new way to create. By definition, they're playing catch-up. So more than most companies, they are under the gun to figure out how to meet their creators in a totally different way. So I think the disruption risk on those guys versus into it is a lot higher. Five years from now, there will be some disruption into, but we'll still be moving money around. We'll still be producing quarterly accounts. And I tell you we'll still be paying taxes to the US government. I don't know if we'll be doing pixel by pixel removing on Photoshop. So I think the Adobe AI risk over the next five years is pretty large. And that's actually probably should be figuring into that search.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In other words, please don't call us Elliot and give us shit Elliot Capital. We know we need to make a change. Shantanu wants to make a change. Here it is. That would actually fit the facts pretty well. You are right. If you've been the number two who've been passed over a second time, because, you know, if you need to make a change and you have a good number two and you feel the activists are circling, I tell you what you do. You hire the guy. But be that as it may. Going to your second comment, the Adobe into it. I really want to key on that because I think intuit has pretty durability over the next five years because I think the thing they automate, which is accounting and tax, has some AI impact, but it's not infinitely large. And I think they can adapt to it. We can argue that another day. I think the challenge for Adobe is what kills you as a software business, if the work that you're automating gets done in a totally different way. What we've seen is AI, a really good post on this. I can't remember who wrote it. It's that most of the AI traction so far has been individual users.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Come on here with three things and then we'll wrap. One is just checked. He's actually staying on as CEO until the new successor. So it's more kind of an announcement without announcement, in which case changing my opinion here, it may well be the board also felt they wanted to send a statement. They felt the results were disappointing. They didn't want to have, they didn't want to attract a whole bunch of, oh, you need to make a change. Activists could show up. Maybe they thought that given these results, they actually needed to state now that a change was happening.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In which case, it's not keys on the table, it's more making an announcement before you have the answer. It's a little less herky jerky.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And to be clear, hang on, actually, one thing we're assuming something. I mean, he's continuing in the role until you get a new CEO. I just didn't track that. I think he is.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've all been on boards where we've had to do CEO transitions, and no matter what's going on underneath the surface, right, provided you've good relations and you've a reasonable level of trust, you always go for the leave the person in place, find the successor, announce an orderly transition, look like you have your shit together, because at the margin you never want to show you don't have your shit together. That's not what happened here. And there's only to Jason, to your point, there's only two ways that occurs. First is if the board decides they want to make a statement, I've been in those meetings where sometimes you're like, you got to go right now because those crimes of moral turpitude, you're out. We've totally lost confidence in you. I'm much more likely, the team's totally lost confidence in you out. That doesn't feel like what it happened here because staying on as chairman, right? If they've run the damn thing for 18 years, you probably should let them run it for another quarter or two while you line up.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The correlation between winning and having fun is pretty high. And you're not having fun if you're the CEO of Adobe. Going back to where we started this conversation, oh, I have an obligation to my shareholders to make the stock go up. And the only way to make the stock go up given my growth rate's gone down is to sack 20% of the people I spent the last 10 years hiring. Now, you might know it's the right thing to do. You might even be willing to do it. But it's not going to be the best week in the office. I don't have 10 quit this year, but I can totally see more than 10 saying should I quit this year?”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the interesting comment, and I want to hear Jason's comment because he's worked out, be precise in your sequencing. They beat earnings at the same time the CEO announced his resignation without a successor and the stock tanked. It wasn't a stock tank and then they whacked him. It was the two were announced together, which is odd. And in response to one or both of those events, the stock went down.”
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“Yeah, it's so true. And what you're basically saying is you wouldn't because you don't have the edge and the return and the odds aren't great. But if you have a different kind of fund where instead of being 20% of your fund, it's 1% of your fund. Maybe you do. I hate that.”
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“We're back again to Kelly betting inadvertently. What you're basically saying is the percentage of your bank wall that you play, it's edge over odds or whatever it is. I'd have to think again. I mean, this is where someone who said it is fund size is strategy.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I got to give you a shit, Jason, because basically you're in the category of I Jason wouldn't invest, but I'd be delighted to let you, I think Jenny Callas, you should stick for $100 million in. Because earlier on you were like, I don't know if it's data.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Understand, but I'll give you an honest answer. If you find your logic being reduced to, I've got to get rid of this much money this month and this entrepreneur is amazing. So I'm not sure about the opportunity and I don't like the price, but have a goal. If that's your logic, let me give you some advice, have your fun size.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So everyone's a victim of their fund. If you're a seed stage funds, you assess the guy. If you're a growth stage funds, you assess the opportunity. To put quantities of money to work. And if you're in the middle like us, you're looking at the market trying to be intelligent and maybe overthinking it.”
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“That's super interesting because we're now at the stage where autonomous driving in freeways is kind of hovering on the edge of being a thing with way more, but autonomous driving for mining and for industrial equipment is a category now. And there's some players in that space. So I buy that that market is there and doable. I'd have to do the next level down. Why is our technology different and better? So credible market and focused for autonomy. believable market, but lots of sub-segments in industrial robotics to really play there.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's so funny the way you answer that question, the way we, because I didn't process to any kind of internal analysis of Travis Calling Soul. I literally found myself thinking, I kind of come from the market side, do I buy the market? I think there's two businesses going on here. One is the Atom slash robot business. As I said, I like the approach of more bounded industrial robots versus general purpose humanized. So I think it's on the right broad track. But I think all those markets tend to be very different in trying to do one robot for all of them is hard. So I think that's a hard road and will be less amenable to any kind of quote-unquote blitz scaling. The autonomy thing is interesting. I think we are at the stage now. The other company that he's invested in is Pronto. I'm sorry, I shouldn't remember the name.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If one of those two things were the thing, then reluctantly you would have. You move heaven on earth not to, but if it's the former, at some point you got to say we're going to run out of private capital. You're not doing what it takes to get profitable. We need to focus on profitability. Give Wall Street what it wants. Then yeah, you might have to. You'd hate doing it. And again, I hate this positioning. I'm not like nine times out of ten, I'd be like, sell the company, get a president, get therapy, be better, all the other things. But my logic is this. Knowing what it's like in those board wings and knowing if you're a founder-friendly firm, like I would say benchmark would like themselves to be, you don't do that lightly. So you got to believe that some one or two of those issues was on the table for them to have to do that.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You should be very, very wary of ever swapping out a founder. It's like I tell people, it's like open heart surgery and 50% of people die. It's a shitty business. Occasionally I've done it for a bunch of reasons and it's hell on earth. Forget morality. Forget, am I a good guy or a bad guy? It's just the most exhausting thing you do. It is easier to just lose money, right? So I hate doing it. There's only two reasons why you do it. One is if the business decisions they're making is literally going to bankrupt the company. To take a concrete example here, if they were investing in a way whereby there simply just wasn't going to be any more private capital and we could run out of money and they were unwilling to change course, then at some point you have to consider that. And then the second option is the thing we said we wouldn't discuss, which is if any internal behavioral issues rise to the level of a really systemic problem with a high bar. If one abode of those things is present, then wildly reluctantly you have to do it and you have to take the heat.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I can see why you made the change, but I agree with you. Now you can say in the last two or three years, the financial management game is out and the product innovation game is back in.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I actually think now I would agree with you. I actually think there was a period of time where they needed to conform to that reality of the market at that time, get cash flow positive, and run it like a financial engineer. It clearly was unwilling to do it. Actually, it turns out in retrospect, they should have done the Steve Jobs thing. They should have swapped them out, got it public, got a cash flow like crazy. And sometime in 22 should have got him back and said, now is the time to do autonomy. So I do agree in the last two or three years. It's still unproven, by the way, whether or not Uber needs to own the technology to still make autonomy work. But I agree. I like your framing that there was a period of five or six years where the best manager for a lot of companies was a professional executive with a financial bent. I can see why they made that change. If there was no more private capital to be raised, and if your CEO just was unwilling to focus on convergence at the expense of long-term projects and you had a risk of going.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For what I agree with that. So two separate arguments, they had to get public, they had to get cash flow positive. Hard nose coming. Another spin on autonomy is you could say, yes, we need to do this thing, but we can't afford to spend at the level they were spending in 2015 on something that reminder 10 years later is still only now finally doing a meaningful number of rides subeconomically in San Francisco. It's a trend. It is the future. It was 10 years away. And they had to get public and they had to have a plan to cash flow even to get public to dominate Lyft. It wasn't an option then, as perhaps it might be today, to stay private longer. Do you think they had to cut back on the autonomous spend, maybe not to zero, which I think probably was a mistake, but dramatically focus on getting cash flow positive, giving Wall Street what it wants to get public, to have the acquisition currency to do the food things and growth at all cost had reached its limits there and maybe a different manager.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's have a question here. And I want to leave aside the personal behavior stuff where I frankly don't have visibility and I'm genuinely not going to try and make a call on that, right? The hypothesis that Uber, instead of being a $160 billion company, would be a trillion dollar company. The only thing that could bridge that gap would be autonomous driving, correct?”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I will answer that question, but first of all, it's interesting, you made a comment here, cloud kitchens, I don't know if I believe in it, but Uber would be a trillion dollar company. That's what you said, right? Implicit in that statement is a repudiation of the logic of it, which is you're saying the great founder is everything, but what you're saying is the great founder can't make this company worth a trillion dollars. So implicitly, what you're saying is it's a great founder plus a great opportunity.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On companies, not saying it's not going to happen ever, but saying it might take a lot longer than you think. And the path to humanoid robotics might be true, specific purpose, non-humanoid type machines may be expanding over time. So big ass call on robotics that for what it's worth I agree with. And it's interesting, Sunday, which just raised recently, which is another one of these robotics companies focused on the home. If you actually look at the form factor, they've gone with wheels too. If you look at it, it's very cute. It's really cute robot. It's kind of nice, happy plastic. But you look at the ground, then it's actually running on wheels because they too have recognized that spending the money to give feet to many robots is just a waste of money here, right? Because you don't need them. So I think actually on trend is correct.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Coming back and saying, I was doing cloud kitchens, I'm now using that information to build robots, and I'm also thinking about autonomy, which obviously cycles back to Uber. So that's kind of the background. I thought he was spot on the robotics call. And let's be clear what he said. He said it didn't fundamentally think humanoids are the answer. He thinks robots on wheels are the incremental next step. And the big aha that Travis had was, it's not clear if you're building an industrial machine for a lot of use cases that you add legs. The humanoid robotics that we all see, they have these legs. They consume a lot of battery life. They're pretty unstable. And most of the time in factory work or logistics, warehouse work, you don't need legs. You just need wheels. They're a lot more efficient. And I think it's a big picture inside of Travis to say this is the direction things are going. And worth pointing out is he's effectively making a call against a whole bunch of the human.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thought on the merits of what he said about robotics that he's correct and was pleased because it's something we've believed. So again, to remind the viewers, obviously Travis Kalnick, the wiley successful founding CEO of Uber, famously terminated by the board enduring feud with Bill Gurley, which can cycle back to the anthropic Pentagon discussion caused Travis' number two is now driving at the Pentagon and also showing an ability to maintain a grudge, which is just one of those things you've just got to admire in people. But anyway, went away, founded cloud kitchens, surfaced last week, and basically said it's not about cloud kitchens anymore. It's about robots. And Atoms is building robots for a variety of industrial use cases. And he has an investment in Pronto, which is an autonomous driving company founded by Anthony. I always mangle his last name. My Polish sucks, Liboowski, who was with him at Uber, right? So it's basically...”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“100 times run revenues for late stage stuff they think is growing quickly. Just as in 21 people thought they were going quickly and fast forward someone will work and make people look really smart and someone who won't. Whenever you're investing you have to have some marginal insight more than the other guy about why this thing that is at whatever stage it's at can outperform and be bigger over the next X years. Once it becomes consensus and the capital arrives, then it's just very hard to have excess returns. And look, and one of those ways of non-consensus is finding these small markets that can expand. Because one of the things we often think about stepping back is because the state we invest is early product market fit. And our highest level rule of thumb has been we want big picture trends and near-in traction. We don't want to compromise between the two. We want something that's working right now, which could be something small that's working right now. You want something that's actually a thing right now with early product markets fit. But you're right, Jason. You don't want something that...”
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“But again, look, the great thing about American capitalism is money fills any void. It's the Barton Biggs quote I've made very often. There's no investment opportunity so good that excess capital won't destroy it. I think you'll look back and go, the growth investments in 17 and 18 were awesome because they sold in 21. The growth investments were 21 because they priced in 21 and then they were shit because the revenue slowed down and the exit market died. The growth investments from 23 on that were LLM centric were amazing. And from the growth investor perspective, needed more capital than was easily available. There was a period of two or three years where the capital needs of anthropic and open AI were unprecedented as were several of the other companies. And when capital needs of unprecedented, the people selling the capital can do actually better at the margin. Take that and have some insights as well about the future. You can make money. Now the wall of money has come back in and I'm sure growth will go through the same thing again, which is emerald pay.”
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“But what am I meant to do with all this? I'm just trying to understand how I do my job differently tomorrow because of this info. Genuinely Jason.”
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“But I don't understand what you actually articulating. I mean, yes, it turns out seed investing is hard than they on a deal-by-deal basis is harder than A and B, which is harder on a deal-by-deal basis than CD&E growth investing.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a fair comment. As a combined comment, that's why it's trying to unpick what you're saying. As a combined comment, that's fair, is that if you price every deal like quote-unquote, it might have a $2 billion, a $20 billion contract. Most of them won't.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's my point. So I'm not sure. I hear you on the small, no one wants to be in a small town, but almost as important, not quite as important, but almost as important as Tam Sy. There's two other things as TAM velocity and for lack of a better word, your ability to dominate that TAM. There are mid, small and mid-tier markets that are widely profitable software markets for the winner. And you can make really good coin in a four or five billion dollar market with a great outcome.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I hear you, I understand what you're saying. The bigger your fund size, the more you have to be a power law junkie. At some level, you want to be a power law junkie because in the end, even if you have a hundred million dollar fund, wouldn't you prefer to be in the trillion dollar outcome than the billion dollar outcome? The question is, when does that focus on the power look? Could it become overly myopic and lead you to swing? You know, you know where gamblers can go on tilt where they're so desperate to earn their money back that they start swinging at anything. Is someone saying, I wish I'd done open AI or anthropic, therefore I'm going to fund eight next gen foundation models because maybe one of them will be like that. That's another failure mode.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I agree. That's my point. And that's my point is that the thing about power laws is the get in your head, like it's getting in your head and you can over-project from nothing matters except the $100 billion outcome. Well, if you want 10% of a billion dollar outcome and you are a $100 million fund, that's a 1X fund.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, shockingly, the defense isn't at large. We just spend a little over 3% of GDP on it. And turns out most of that, not most of that, a good slog of that, almost half is people. It turns out the actual amount of, because I make a comment, it's not Canada. I think Anna was going to do amazingly well. The Pentagon budget for new shit is fairly finite. And I think there'll be five or six big winners in defense. I'm not sure there'll be a hundred.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Jason, there's a lot of in that. I want to unpick it and frankly be more precise. I think you're saying two things. When you see what a big TAM feels like and let's agree, being the calm system for the army probably is one of those big ass Tams, right? You're saying you just can't get excited by super small TAMs. That's one statement. And the second statement you made is if everyone's thinking like that, they're all going to swing more aggressively at the big TAMs, but in the third or fourth player in those TAMs and probably lose. Is that what you're saying? I didn't understand.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just near real time, but real time. Because as we're learning right now, it turns out if you're in the Strait of Hormuz, you've got Lily seconds before you can take down an incoming drone. You don't have time for a slow connectivity protocol. You definitely don't have time for human. So you need this integrated communication system that connects all your different physical hardware offensive and defensive weapons. It looks like the product that these guys have that annual has is becoming at least the primary default for that, for effectively moving information between different systems. So it makes sense for what the Pentagon's doing. They're basically saying, look, we've gone from trying you out in a lot of different areas to saying, okay, damn it, you're the dominant provider of this layer. So why don't we just systematize the contract? It picks them as the clear new prime.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First of all, yes, it's obviously a vast contract, but as a reminder, they only have four or five customers. So you better get 20 billion from each of them if you want to be a big company. What it really told me is they've succeeded. This isn't this much a new program. This is basically the army saying, look, we got 120 separate contracts with you. We get it. You're now effectively a prime supplier. Why don't we consolidate all the paperwork so that people one level down have less process to go through every time to buy your stuff? So it's a procurement thing. And also there's a systems lock in here. The primary product I think they're talking about is the lattice, which is their software connectivity system. You've got all these different physical hardware products out there, some made by Andrew, some made by other people. And as is becoming clear in recent conflicts, a huge part of the problem is making all these systems talk to each other, dare I say it autonomously and quickly and connecting all these things in not.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, and at the risk giving positive, it's worth pointing out two things he didn't say. Well, something implicit in what I said, Jason didn't do the only hire, you know, he didn't commit the employment law. I think it's a civil penalty of saying only employ people will owe X who get the new thing because he implicitly said anyone can do it provided you're willing to learn. And I think that's the big, that's one of the positive statements to make here, right? And I think it applies, I'm always wary of being coming across, hey, this is the things that you all have to do. I think it applies to everyone, including investors, right? And I will say I have found that unless you're willing to invest the time learning these tools, you actually shouldn't be investing in them. One of my partners, Andy, had this expression, you know, if you decide you want to stop learning new things, you probably should retire within six to 12 months and never write another check again, right? And maybe that's down to three to six months at this stage, right?”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To Jensen. And today compute eats jobs. And that's what you're seeing at kind of Facebook. You literally can't afford to have NVIDIA and people. And then the last one that I didn't have that Jason's added to me, which I think actually could be more of it than I realized, is this idea that in some cases you actually are going to hire back, maybe not as many people, but maybe at twice the salary, but just different people. And maybe there's a little bit of deck cleaning. I think if I write Jason, I hadn't thought of it, but deck cleaning going on in that maybe I don't need 20 engineers who all know, you know, C++ or us. Maybe I need eight engineers who are just really awesome at AI. My aha is if that's not going on, it probably should be in every company. Even if you don't have any of the first, even if you didn't overhire, even if business is still growing strongly, even if you don't need to feed Wall Street, even if you're not spending it all on compute, you probably are doing to Jason's point a pretty significant talent we should.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“get into what Jason talks about the third category is maybe you just that you did need these people pre-AI but now there are AI efficiencies that allow you to do the same thing with less that's probably true in coding I'm not sure it's true at the same scale across the board The fourth one isn't the one adjacent gave me, but it is the meta example. It's that's something different. You spent all your money on computers, you need operating cash flow because you got that depreciation hit coming. That's reallocating dollars from humans to compute, right? That's not what's going on at Block because they're not investing massively in CapEx, but that is 100% what's going on at Meta because, Jason, you actually wrong in that the operating margins are still 40%. The free cash flow, when you honestly account for the CapEx, is almost zero. And that depreciation is going to start hitting and they're going to be firing people because they need to give.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a whole category of layoffs that are really we never should have hired these people. We got fat. We're using AI as an excuse. But if you run the efficiency metrics, we just don't need these people. And I think there's some of that in there. Then the second category is the we used to have a business growing at 20%. We're now growing at 2. If we were growing at 20%, we need all these people, but we're not. We're going at two. I need to give the financial market what it wants and it wants profitability. Again, you're not making any comment on the labor. You're just conforming to capitalism. I think there's a lot of that going on in the SaaS world. What Bloc is clearly example of the first category and maybe meta, but I'll come to Meta in a second. I think a lot of the SaaS world is that second category of Wall Street is simple. If you give them growth, they leave you alone. If you don't give them growth, you better give them profitability. And if you don't give them either, they're going to bust your chops. Then be the rules. And if you can't give them growth, you got to give them the second. That's the second category of layoff. The third category is starting.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The future, and they can't stick with people in the past. You just can't afford to. You're going to be obsolete in 18 months. And layoffs are just one way to re-engineer your company there. And as brutal as they are, they're just a small piece of re-engineering your company. We're running out of time. Everyone knows they're running out of time. Everyone knows they're running. Unless you're Legora or Shenora or Ledora, but even them know that they're running out of time. In 12 months, their current products will be obsolete. I actually have been thinking a lot about this layoff thing.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But everyone's talking about it. Everyone's talking about it. And just whether it's 10% or 40% or 15%, it's just an output of these conversations of what people do I need in the new world. And most folks are probably half their teams are not the folks they need going forward. Do you want to be kind about it like Mike? Do you want to be brutal about it like Zuck? Does it matter? I mean, it matters to the humans, but at some point we're going to end up in the same place over the next 36 months. The pace of change is so fast. But I do think the block thing, you could argue it's different and they're growing 2% like we talked about. And I think Mark Benioff said it was a block is different, right? But these conversations are in every boardroom. Even if you're in the margins are in the 40s, we have the wrong people. Everyone's stressed at AF right now, including Open AI, including anthropic. Everyone's stressed AF. And they need to reboot their teams.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This morning from the ex VP of Engineering of Ping Identity, who said, This is going to be a sad post. I don't know if anyone's going to see it, but what I learned is over. The craft art of creating code, creating modules, testing it, being creative, figuring out how to do something that hasn't been done before is why I got into engineering, why my teams joined me, right? That era is over. Now the AI writes the code and all an engineer does is review the code. But now the LLMs are doing the code review. We won't need me anymore. And everyone's looking at their team and wondering, why do I need that engineer? And do I need half my sales and go to marketing team? Do I need to brute force sales and marketing the way it was when the three of us met? You brute force sales and marketing in the enterprise. Everyone's looking and they're saying, I don't need to do these things. And so these are leading to radically different ways of thinking about the future. And some folks are going to be very slow on this.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, look, I don't know that much has changed from our prior conversations other than that. Everything we've said has come true. This is every conversation at scale. Here's the thing. It's not, Atlassian and Meta are both interesting, I think, because it's not really about layoffs. Neither of these companies has to lay off anybody. Atlassian has substantial free cash flow. Their free cash flow is dipped, but it's still like in the mid 40s. They don't have to do this. This is not a unicorn trying to figure out what to do with the last 20 million that SASTR scale in 20 VC gave it. Okay, this is a decision. This is a purposeful decision. And what's happening in board meetings and in management teams is everyone's looking at the teams they have and saying, I just don't know what to do with half of these. I don't need half of these people. I don't need them. I do need people. I need different people. And I don't, you know, there was a great LinkedIn post today.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thing that stayed with me, and this is the message behind the message, right, was that open source, whatever models, everyone needs gigawatt centers. They all need massive amounts of data centers with inference, with GPUs, with everything, and that it doesn't really matter. It doesn't really matter. And that the best models are still going to win, which is where he's made his bet. He's announced another open source alliance. Other things will win. But at the end of the day, we're going to win. We produce the best outputs. We produce the best inference. We produce the best everything. And everyone needs data centers. And that level of confidence that most roles of the dice lead to NVIDIA winning, you can take shots at its armor, right? At its moats, but there's a high degree of confidence that most of the roads lead back to NVIDIA reaching 10 trillion of cumulative bookings over the next five to seven years.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Within 10 minutes, the stock market process to nothing to see here points out the expectation of a railway boom internet boom level of CapEx investment continuing on abated, growing at 30% for the next four or five years. It's a pretty heroic assumption. It's validated by the recent past, and there's nothing at this point to say it won't happen, but it is just word pointing out. When NVIDIA does 200, the CapEx spend is probably $400 or $500 billion because they get about half of it. If NVIDIA is doing $600, the CapEx spend is probably $1.2 trillion plus or minus. These are unprecedented levels of CapEx spend, and now we're forecasting them to keep going for four or five years. There is at least some probability pick a number 30% that doesn't happen this way.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Per unit time, faster than Linux, faster than anything. But I think the real reason is it uses a lot of inference. This is why all everyone in China, all the providers are giving away OpenClaw because you've got grandma and grandpa lined up on the streets outside of Tencent Alibaba with their free open cloth because it just burns tokens, right? So part of it is Jensen saying we're going to, and this is probably part of the big part of the Rock exclusion. We want you to be burning tokens at least 72 hours a day. We want at least three agents running 24 hours a day. So I think it's got to be three orders of magnitude more inference we run in the next five years. You could have 3x more tokens, but if the price per token goes down by 6x, the revenue would decline. It's going to be like, it might be $3,000 more tokens, not 3x. But yes, the math, the same math issue, right? I mean, I think, look, again, going back to my comment is someone unveiled a trillion dollar number.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, I think Tentrillion in revenue is more interesting because he's just predicted a trillion, right? And so cumulative, again, we've got to be precise. Yeah, cube's a cumulative trillion. So how long does it take to do a cumulative 10 trillion? That's an order of magnitude. That's at the limit, I think, of general non-andreesen level human ability to grok is about an order of magnitude. So I think five years it will have a cumulative 10 trillion from one. I don't know, take five years to go from one trillion to 10 trillion. That's my bet. I do think the inference thing, I mean, listen, there's a lot of interesting things in the math. How fast will the cost of inference continue to fall versus the consumption of inference, right? Will there eventually be a inverse Moore's law where it doesn't, where we don't see the dramatic cost decreases we're seeing? Maybe that's why we need data centers in space. There's a lot of complexity here. But even if you think like why the hell does NVIDIA do nemo claw? Like why? Now, Jensen said it's the most GitHub star.”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Information here, which is just fascinating because what it says is, you know, this is a company, by the way, for context. Four years ago was doing $20 billion a year, $20 billion a year. Last year did $215 billion, 10x growth over four years, you know, about under 60% growth last year, forecasting 60% growth this year and attenuating down to 20s, 30% growth in a couple of years. So at one level, not insane relative to, you know, if past performance is predictive, if you have company that grows 10x saying it's only going to go 20, 30, 40 percent over the next couple of years doesn't seem unreasonable. But what it does imply is a massive level of capex continuing for the next four or five years. That's fundamentally the bet. That's the big statement that came out here is we think this level of capex investment is going to keep going for the next four or five years. We're reaffirming our estimates. None of my...”
2026-03-19 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: The Return of Travis Kalanick: Uber Would Be $1TRN Today With Him | NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC | Anduril Lands $20BN Army Contract | Adobe CEO Shock Exit: The Dominos Falling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source