YouSaid · the spoken record

Travis Kling

lines on the record: 68
first: 2024-12-23
most recent: 2024-12-23
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Twitter is always great. Travis underscore Kling. I write a monthly update letter. It goes out the first of every month. I've been doing that for over six years now. People like it. It's pretty meaty. And if you go to my Twitter profile, it links to the fund. And you can sign up through there. So yeah, enjoyed the conversation. Thanks for having me.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A lot of fees. And so I think there is a sort of question mark there around what would happen to the aggregate market caps of L1s. In that whole now we have this clear ability to return fees generated back to token holders because of regulatory changes. But I think you do bring up a great point”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Strongly agree with that. Strongly agree with that. And maybe There is a path where what you just described causes some structural decrease in market cap against BTC, right? Where you just go, oh, these are now based on fees. This is a P these are all super overvalued on a PE basis. And so we just got to right size all the market cap that's stuck in this. Where does that market cap flow? Could flow to BTC. And then I think maybe where the question mark is, is where do L1s fit in that and the L1 market cap relative to, because L1 also generate fees, but sort of the big pitch for L1s is that you want them to be low fee, right? That's what we're all working on now. It's like you need these things to be cheap. And so you actually don't want them to have.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A funny distinction I think about too is what could be positive for the fundamentals could actually be bad for price because like, okay, if we take like Aave or something and it's like, all right, if we start to value this with like a DCF, you're like, oh shit, this price to revenue multiple is absolutely insane. You start to anchor it from a DCF and suddenly it's like, oh shit, this is way overvalued.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe like real world asset, that's like another sector that people are fired up about. But to me, it's not that selling because to me what you're really doing is just like replacing a database technology. You're just like, oh, we used to use this closed sourced database to do Wall Street's back office. And now we're going to use this like real-time instant settlement database technology. It's called a blockchain. And so we're like upgrading like Wall Street back office, which is probably going to happen in the likelihood that that does happen is certainly, I think, increased very significantly in the Trump administration, but it doesn't get me super, I don't know, I'm not a little boring to me or whatever. Yeah.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is I think it does open up the door for Web2 companies' traditional technology companies and like traditional gaming companies to get involved in crypto in a meaningful way. And maybe a good example is like, well, now GTA6 is going to have crypto in it when previously they would like not be willing to have crypto in GTA6. I don't know if that's going to happen or not, but it's just like that's like a good example. Something like that, right? Where you have really big traditional companies that now, because the last cycle, you heard rumors about this stuff. You always at the peak of you were like, oh, this so-and-so huge company is like really looking at crypto. So-and-so huge company. Some of that stuff came to fruition. But I do think you can get more of that. Yeah, I think you can get more of that.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think I would maybe going back to the giga, this conversation. I'm hopeful, I am hopeful that getting a really supportive and helpful regulatory framework that over a multi-year basis that this will, we will be able to look back on this and it will be a turning point. I think what it also does.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Congratulations, right? Now we have 19,000 DEXs for people. And some people feel different ways about this, about speculation. Like, oh, speculation, this is the use case for crypto. It feels defeatist. That's not what I came to this for. It does not get me excited. I think it has a significant nihilistic bend to it. We talked about that earlier. So this idea that you're like, oh, you've created the greatest casino ever, I'm just really not.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we haven't really found that outside of Bitcoin and stablecoins. Bitcoin has found product market fit. Stablecoins have found product market fit. And everything else in the alt landscape is somewhere in between a solution looking for a problem and vaporware grift. That's been the two goalposts for the very large majority of all. And then what you also find product market fit around is like internal use cases, right? Like it's like, oh, I created pump.fun and pump.fun has generated over a billion dollars of revenue. It's like the fastest billion dollars of revenue maybe of like any company in the history of the world or some shit like that. I don't know, right? But it's like, yeah, but this is like this is an internal use case, right? Of DEXs have found product market.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That part I am less sure about, I am not strongly of the view that a lack of regulatory clarity has been this extremely strong gate that has prevented alts from finding core utility. And I'll even go to step further. We'll call it core external utility, where you are solving real world problems. You're providing solutions for real world problems using crypto that causes, leads to significant mass adoption at a scale that is meaningful in the real world, not tens of thousands of users or 50,000 users. That people in crypto get excited about when some random dApp has like, oh, we got 50,000 daily active users for like one week or something like that, right? Like tens of millions of users, right?”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“From a protocol, sorry, the fees generated from a protocol, and you give that back in the form of a yield or in the form of a buyback and burn type of thing, or other more inventive equity-like features sort of deal. To me, I think that's going to be the main backdrop for the next year for Alts. And then the question is, does that translate into finding core utility for numerous alts?”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I don't know where I would handicap the, like what's the overunder on the timing of the legislation getting passed? I don't have a strong view on that. My view is kind of that it's not going to matter all that much because you will get rules of the road so quickly into the Trump administration through those other avenues. And then this will be sort of like a dawn of a new day for alts. And it's like a new hand of cards basically to be played. And then do you just start seeing a series of token structure changes by alts, new tokens being launched that have security-like features that in turn give the market more compelling value accrual mechanisms? Take a very easy way to think about this is you think of the yield that's generated.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what you just described, in my view, will be the primary backdrop for Alts in 2025. That thing that you just said, that's the best portrayal of what the alt market, I think, is going to look like over the next year, which is basically like the way I think it's going to work is in the first hundred days, you will very rapidly get a series of settlements and no action letters out of the SEC and the CFTC. You will get along with a series of executive orders out of the White House that create a de facto regulatory framework for crypto. And then you should have legislation that follows that I would guess will generally mirror what gets put in place in this kind of de facto piecemeal settlement, no action letter executive orders.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, I know. I mean, you just look at like, I was looking at a chart of bond yields in China this week, and it's just like cratering. You know, it feels like they're in their 2008 moment. So I don't think it's nearly the risk that they were a few years ago for sure. Okay, so for the last bit of our conversation here, I want to talk a little bit more about the more in the weeds parts of crypto and how you're thinking about them. So I'm curious about how you think about this, but my opinion has been that, you know, you always hear people say, okay, we have crypto, but we haven't found a use case. My opinion is that we have found use cases. We've just been hampered by regulatory constraints at every turn that'll have stopped us from having the ability to actually use those use cases. So we're stuck with these useless governance coins and things like that. So I'm curious, you know, with respect to what we talked about at the start of the show in terms of just, you know, this deregulation and more just at least clear regulation, right? How are you?”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And one other thing I'll say against that just a few years ago, the case for China and for Yuan, that was a much more credible case. You actually could look at that and look at the direction that China was going versus where we were going, the strength of their economy, the moves they were making, one belt, one road, this, that, and the other. In my view, you fast forward to today. And China looks, yeah, it's a much less credible, much, much less credible type of competitive setup there. Yeah. Yeah.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“$500,750. You know, I don't know what the number is. I'm going to be trading, you know, it's going to be a huge, huge asset by that point. And so this, yeah, I don't know, just this idea of imminent dollar collapse. I always just ask people kind of against what.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, yeah, exactly right. Yeah, the best monetary policy house on a really shitty monetary policy block is the way that I talk about it. And these... Because I think you get a lot of Bitcoiners that frame Bitcoin against the collapse of the dollar. But it's like the yen is definitely going to collapse before the dollar collapses. And that's going to be a, in my view, that would be a strongly dollar strengthening event. The euro will almost certainly collapse before the dollar collapses, and that will be a very dollar strengthening event. I think the same is true for the pound as well too. You just sort of look at what's going on in the British economy and the ails of the UK right now in general. And you're like, the pound is definitely going to collapse before the US dollar. And that's a dollar strengthening event. So when I think about Bitcoin versus a US dollar, well, we got to get through the collapse of all of those currencies.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The one thing I'll say on that, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this too. I really struggle to imagine the dollar collapsing. Like collapsing against what? Yeah.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I'm just kind of gaming this out live here with you, but perhaps, you know, there's two routes we can take here. It's either we buy Bitcoin to use as a foreign exchange reserve, you know, similar to like any other currency that we use to be able to sell to defend the dollar. Or the gold would be in the other basket, which is this game theory between different central banks to potential to potentially protect against tail risk scenarios. And I feel like that's the more ideal outcome here than just something that we could sell to defend a currency, right?”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Our largest competitors probably already have some. They're probably buying more. And we should probably get some for the same reasons that we hold gold and that there may be just this inevitability of wealth transfer from gold into Bitcoin over a kind of multi-decade period of time just from a first principles perspective.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Crypto and like, I mean, my views around this were formed in 2018. When you line, Bitcoin up next to gold and look at it from a first principles perspective, Bitcoin is an attractive store of value. And so I think you can sort of take that and you can look at Bitcoin and you go, there's already been so much chatter about other sovereigns buying a bunch of Bitcoin. I have no doubt that it's like the Middle East has, however much the Middle East has, Russia's got however much they have through whatever pockets of wealth that maybe it's not directly owned by the government, but it's like Putin owns it all. It's like Putin owns it all anyways, CCP and China this acts the same way however much they got so you sit there and you think about all this and you go well”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So then to me, if you just sub out the word gold and sub in the word Bitcoin, I feel like most of that still kind of holds. And the game theory still kind of holds. And I love monetary history as it relates to understanding the value proposition of Bitcoin. I think an understanding of monetary history is extremely useful for understanding the value proposition of Bitcoin. And so when you just think about the first principles perspectives of like why is gold a good store of value? Why did it replace salt and big heavy rocks and this sort of thing as stores of value the six characteristics of money, durable, divisible, portable, uniform, and scarce and accepted? And to me, and I've thought this since I first got into”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. The way I would answer that is that there just appears to be a very clear game theory set up with other sovereigns, including our largest competitors, right? China and Russia. And the game theory is basically like, well, you can't really sell all of it because if you sell all of it and then your competitors have all of it and you don't have any and the price goes up a lot, well then you're in real trouble and US dollar hegemonies is in real trouble. So the game theory is just we need to keep some around. Yeah, a trillion worth of gold versus 20 trillion of M2, it's a pretty big gap, but everybody else has a lot and some of our biggest competitors have been buying a lot, right? Totally. So it's just like, oh, we need to hold on to this.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so this is where I'm at in my thinking as well. And it's, okay, is it just an artifact left over from that? And it's just sort of like, oh, why would we sell it? Then the other side of the answer is we have it there as a just in case to be able to sell to buy dollars or to just be able to use it as some point of reference to back it in some way if need be. So I guess those are the two routes. I don't know which is the correct route though.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a good question, too. Will not pretend to have a completely full formed answer on this. But I thought about it some talk to others about it. One way to frame it would kind of be the following. And you would say, and maybe I'll frame it as a series of questions because curious if you have any thoughts on this. So the US dollar has not been backed by gold since 1971, correct? Okay. The United States government owns how much gold do we have dollar amount?”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The signal from the price on polymarket for this, the efficacy or the accuracy of that signal, but I think it's trading like high 30s last time I looked at it. And so let's just take that. Let's say the market's saying there's a 35% chance that the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happens. Well, maybe there's this path where over the next six to nine months, maybe the 35% moves to like a 60% chance over the following six to 12 months from that period of time, right? And if you are getting these events in these headlines that are happening between now and then that are moving up the markets assigned probability for the BSR, that just strikes me as the kind of thing that like maybe that's not blowing the top off of price, but it feels very supportive for price because it's like, how are you?”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Potential for a slower burn on this thing and maybe a path for the slower burn is you get 10 or 12 states that pass it at the state level and you try and build support kind of through that avenue that then flows up into the federal level. And then there's lots of politicking that's going on behind the scenes trying to get enough votes together to convince Congress and then Senate that like this is a good thing for America and that maybe it's like The timeline is sort of like I don't know. So you actually can bet on this on Polymarket. I don't know how to think about”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cells is that they don't care until you see the government move a bunch of coin on chain and then price drags ass for a few weeks or a few days or whatever. And then it's over until the next time you see coin move on chain. Government sees coin move on chain. So it's like the removal of that. I don't think you kind of get a price plop on that. But one more thing I'll say on BSR is you had the state of Pennsylvania pass a at the state level, pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve. You had Texas, say the Texas last week introduce a bill at the state level to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The rumor mill is that there's 10 or 12 other states that are evaluating doing the same thing. I think Florida people think Florida has quite a good chance you would think that the state of Wyoming with how supportive they are Bitcoin just quite a good chance to get something like that. And I've been thinking through, is there the...”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Buying more, and we're gonna, I don't know, do a study on it or we're gonna, or Trump says we're gonna go through this is a legislative decision. The lumbus bill is going to decide what happens with this. We're not going to do it through executive order. You know, that feels like kind of flattish price action. I don't think you get much of a pop just off of the United States isn't going to sell any more. We're going to sell the seas Bitcoin anymore. I think that's kind of expected at this point. And I think the future selling of seized Bitcoin does not get discounted to today and then taken out of today's price. The market doesn't think about it like that, in my opinion. So the removal of that doesn't cause a pop because it wasn't pushing on price anyways. The way the market has digested these governments.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of the United States is, oh, we get to keep this forever. And we used to sell it when we would do stuff like that. This is like, you know, this gets returned back to the people that it was stolen from some minutia around legality reasons. I'm not 100% sure if that's the case or not. But all of that to say You have an executive order in the first hundred days, which I think you do, that says we're going to keep the Bitcoin that we have that the US government has. We're not going to sell anymore. If we get more, if we seize more, we're going to keep that too. And then it just stays silent on the Bitcoin strategic reserve, the Lamas bill. I think that's probably flattish price action. Maybe if it says like we're going to...”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it would depend on whether or not they killed the Lumis Bill straight away when they announced the seizing. If they said we're not going to sell any more seized Bitcoin and not to get maybe to get down in the rabbit hole a little bit so the U.S. government owns like 200,000 Bitcoin, but like I can't remember like 70,000 or something like that is from the Bitfinex hack and then there's some stuff going on in that court case. There was just an announcement I think I don't know I lose track of time maybe that was like six weeks ago or something like that where it's actually looking like because of some nuances that I can't regurgitate about the legality around the C's Bitcoin around specifically the Bitfinex hack hack, then it looks like maybe that's going back to Bitfinex and that that's not like part of it.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, yeah, that thing. So now people are like, you know, he doesn't, they don't even need legislation. I don't know how to think about. The likelihood of that. I do strongly believe, and I would put this at a 75% probability, that within the first hundred days, you get an executive order that says the United States is not going to sell any more seized Bitcoin.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, it wasn't Lutnick. This was last week as well. What's that guy's name? It was Trump Jr. was on stage with like a senior campaign advisor. I can't remember where this went. Anyways, they kind of had some whispers around it too. So it does not, and then there's like whispers that like you don't need legislation. I don't know if you've seen this, that like it's he can get it done through this stabilization act deal.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“New pieces of information that need to come out to get from point A to point B. What needs to happen for the market to increase its assigned probability of a BSR happening? And to me, it was like, well, if you had Scott Besset say something, that would probably do something. If you had Trump come out and say something publicly, that would do something. And you're seeing these little hints of these things that Cynthia Lummus, I mean, that was like a little hint of something you had, who was it Trump's campaign manager, what's that guy's name? He was on.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And she, I can't remember the exact wording, but it was something along the lines of he's going to be a key ally in getting my bill passed. I took that as a significant incremental piece of information because the way that I've been thinking about this is we're at point A right now. Let's say point B is the market pricing in a high likelihood of a Bitcoin strategic reserve being passed.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That works has been part of the reason I think that I've struggled with thinking that this is actually going to happen. But you're seeing these little hints. Cynthia Lummus had a tweet last week. She had a picture with Scott Besson. I don't know if you saw that. I did. Yeah.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Another, I don't know, five months to date or something like that, he's gonna keep hammering it as long as the premium is open. And so it looks like we're heading high even without Bitcoin Strategic Reserve type of stuff going on. We're heading higher. But then it's like this thing, like imagine the Lumus bill gets out of committee. Okay, and now that's a headline announcement. Okay, this thing is now out of committee. Okay, price pops. Okay. Now it goes to vote in Congress, passes vote. Okay, how much does the price go up? Okay, now it goes into committee in the Senate. Okay, now it gets out of the Senate committee. Okay, now how much does price pop? Okay, and then it gets passed by, let's say they go to vote in the Senate, and then it passes the Senate. What price is Bitcoin trading at by the time we get to there, right? And the amount of front running that's going on and just the logistics of how...”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They would front run that, and then everybody else would front run that. And part of what makes it difficult for me to reason on the BSR, well, a couple things. One is that it's so wildly bullish that you feel silly kind of even talking about it. Like it's like, oh, the United States government's going to buy a million Bitcoin and put it on their treasury over five years. Like it just sounds kind of like it's like, who am I? Max Kaiser? Like, it's like, what are we talking about here? But also part of it that makes it that I struggle with is the logistics of it, of actually getting it done. Because if you think about it, it's like, hey, we're trading 107 right now. Sailors is premium to nav is wide open. So he's just hammering the shit out of Bitcoin right now. He bought about 12 billion fucking dollars of Bitcoin in November. He's up to like, he's done.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The lummus bill getting passed and the United States government buying 200,000 Bitcoin a year for five years, which is what her bill states, your price target should not, it's not in the hundred thousands. It's not in the 200,000s, I don't think. That would, to me, that would be very rapidly moving to kind of 250-ish. And I feel like you're probably going higher than that. And I don't see how that would not spark a sovereign bidding war for Bitcoin because it just doesn't make sense to me that if the United States was going to TWAP into a million Bitcoin over five years, then other central banks around the world, both major and minor, would sit there and do nothing. That makes no sense to me. The game theory, that just makes no sense to me. What would make sense to me is that...”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's huge. Yeah, anybody that is a Bitcoin owner or thinking about buying Bitcoin or thinking about buying more Bitcoin or thinking about where they might sell their Bitcoin, this is a huge aspect because any kind of price target that you're going to make on Bitcoin this cycle, your view on the BSR was very significantly impact whatever that price target would be really significantly in my view. To me, and this is not financial advice, I'm wrong often, without a Bitcoin strategic reserve, it's kind of feeling like 140 to 175-ish this cycle is kind of feels right to me and maybe a midpoint in there feels like a fine base case to me. But then if you're talking about”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to U.S. customers through payworth interactive. A few legal disclosures at Kraken.com slash legal slash disclosures. You mentioned obviously there's a lot of positive aspects for the crypto landscape coming from this administration. One of them being the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. As somebody that's like macro first and kind of got into crypto through that macro lens, which I think is quite similar to you, I've been trying to think about what my opinion is on that. You know, I was always a big believer in that idea of being very positive for emerging markets and emerging market central banks, but I'm quite surprised to see the US being one of the first. And I'm trying to think through like, what does that mean? For reserve currency. So I'm curious about your take on how you're thinking about it.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are just getting chewed to death. Now you're looking at median home prices relative to median incomes. This is for financial nihilism. I consider this the single most exemplary chart of what's going on here is median home price to median income. And so if you can have empathy, if you're an empathetic person, you can look at that and you can say, well, for a huge swath of Americans, maybe it's working for me, but it's not working and it's working less and less for a larger and larger swath of Americans. And that's not a good thing. That's not a sustainable thing.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have benefited greatly if you're an asset owner, right? You've benefited almost any asset. It doesn't matter if it's real estate. It doesn't matter if it's stocks. It doesn't matter if it's bonds. It doesn't matter if it's Rolexes or Ferraris or rare whiskeys or Jordans or it's like any asset that has some kind of scarcity or whatever. It's just been a steroid injection, but it's at the expense of people that don't own assets. And that has been a huge drop. That is a cornerstone aspect of financial nihilism. The rich have been getting richer. Wealth disparity gap has been growing. People that can't hop on the asset ownership train.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Any savvy asset owner Anybody that's savvy that also owns assets, financially savvy that also owns assets, QE is just another, it's universal basic income for rich people. And you've seen this play out. And so sort of selfishly, if you were financially savvy enough to sort of figure out what's going on here with monetary and fiscal policies and their effect on asset prices to look through the lies of Fed chairman and Treasury Secretaries, both current and past that pretend like this isn't what's going on. If you can look through those lives and see what's actually going on”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've never asked this, but do you ever feel like it creates misaligned incentives for Bitcoin owners to cheer on recklessness, even though they probably own it because they believe that we need responsibility? But then it's like, oh, yay, you know, QE, you know, more cowbell. Awesome, even though it's like goes against their philosophical views.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And treasuries, obviously treasuries as a financial instrument is just as important as the US dollar as a currency. So I think that's interesting. Now, there's obviously other very bullish things going on for Bitcoin as well, too, but it's just something that I've thought about.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The biggest ones people look at, everybody knows what those charts look like and how out of control they've gotten some really scary stuff. And it's like if we're now in some sort of multi-year walking that back and getting that more into a sustained level, which Scott Bessant is three main things, like he's got that three-point plan, right? It's three percent GDP growth, 3% deficit to GDP, 3 million additional barrels a day of additional oil production domestically. And it's like you get all three of those done. And does that just, you know, that's obviously not QT, but it does make you feel better about the long-term viability of the US dollar and the stability of over a multi-decade period of time, the stability of...”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I have rattled. Bitcoin is a non-sovereign hard cap supply, global immutable decentralized digital store of value. I've said like 500 times at this point. It's an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally. I also said that like 500 times. Another thing I say a lot is Bitcoin loves QE and detests QT. I've said that a bunch of times as well too. I think that's also a really good framework. It's like you need historically you have needed increasingly more egregious monetary and fiscal policy to act as a forcing function for pools of capital to consider this alternative store of value that is Bitcoin. And to your point, like it's real easy to have some signposts out there for how this is going for the United States deficit to GDP, debt to GDP or to”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the two guys that are in charge of it, it's not an exaggeration to say you might have the two best people on planet Earth. I don't know if there's two other people, Elon and Vivek. Like, I don't know if there's two other people you'd rather have in charge of this kind of thing. And that's the kind of thing that can set the United States up for. The crazy thing about it is it's actually... If Doge is implemented at significant scale, it actually, you can think of it as being bearish Bitcoin. Yeah.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, definitely. Yeah, definitely. But I think I just. It's really the team around it. Yeah, I agree. Yeah, and the fact that they're putting, I love that they're putting a shot clock on Doge, right? This thing's supposed to be done by July 4th, 2026.”
2024-12-23 · Forward Guidance · Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT