YouSaid · the spoken record

Trey Lockerbie

lines on the record: 24
first: 2023-01-06
most recent: 2023-01-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Whether it was the Fed's responses to inflation, Russia invading Ukraine and compromising energy resources, pension plan bailouts in the UK, FTX and other crypto exchanges collapsing, it's safe to say that 2022 was full of surprises. To wrap up my top takeaways episode, I wanted to zoom out and get some perspective on what we're all trying to do by listening and learning from this podcast. And that's to become better investors and hopefully better people. In episode 441, I interviewed financial planning expert Peter Maluk, whose firm manages over two hundred billion dollars. Peter has advised countless people who have achieved financial greatness, and I was curious to see what he's learned from their experience.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A bullish impact, if I'm murdering. Correct. Y Now that we're winding down twenty twenty two, there's a strong and widely held belief that if the Fed keeps on its current path, something will break and the most obvious assumption is likely unemployment. Now if something does break, it's interesting to think about what the Fed's response might look like. For that, I brought back famed economist Richard Duncan on episode four hundred eighty eight to get his thoughts.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, when we talk about using this as an indicator, because you kind of listed it earlier, are you looking for the $2 trillion to start going down as far as the Fed's balance sheet holding less and less of that repo money?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would you consider that move to be a Fed pivot? Everyone's talking about this Fed pivot that could potentially happen. I think everyone's thinking they're going to just lower interest rates. But are you thinking that instead of doing that or in lieu of doing that, they would actually just add liquidity through this reverse repo system?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, a big belief or narrative at the top of the year was that if the Fed were to raise rates, they would really struggle to increase them beyond two percent. This was believed to be true because the last time they attempted this in two thousand nineteen, things began to get a bit shaky very quickly and they reverse course. Shortly thereafter the repo market froze up. Joe brought to my attention the reverse repo market, which I believe to be a big focus for 2023. So what is the reverse repo market? Let's find out from Joe.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Another market indicator that I've only recently picked up is the put call ratio. The put call ratio is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options by the number of traded call options. Let's say equilibrium is around 0.7. If we go higher than that, it's a very bearish signal. And if we go below like 0.58 where it is at the time of this recording, it's actually a very bullish signal. I brought back Joe Brown on episode 507 to break it down for us.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to ask about this, but I do want to go back to the time period because I still am curious about that. But as far as the 600 mark on the high yield spread, some of your latest research was showing that while the number, the nominal number is important as like a mile marker, it's the direction of the spread either rising or falling that actually adds value to the strategy. It reminds me a little bit of when I was talking with Brent Johnson recently about the DXY. He said, you know, as soon as it gets to 97, I get worried. But it's actually the rate at which it gets to 907 or the rate it gets to, you know, 104, wherever it is now, that is actually more important than the number itself. So can you walk us through why that directional focus adds value to the strategy?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Besides the DXY and its rate of change, I focused in on some other indicators this year. One indicator that I've added to my arsenal is the high yield spread. In episode 455 with Dan Rasmussen, he explains why he uses the high yield spread as a primary indicator. Check it out.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So interesting. And when I asked earlier about when debt is going to matter again, I almost expected you to say, you know, when inflation matters again, now we have to increase interest rates to quell inflation. And you have everyone in the US at least scratching their heads. Like, why on earth are we raising into weakness, into a lot of things that are happening in the market right now? And to your point, what I'm hearing from you just now is that the Fed is thinking more globally, right? And they're saying, well, we got to raise race because we're going to have to print more money. We're going to have to create more bonds to fund that money printing and who's going to buy it. Ideally, not the Fed. You know, ideally, it'd be the rest of the world. And maybe they will if we are able to provide some real yield. Is that correct?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Surprisingly, what beat out most micro, small, mid, and large cap stocks this year was cash. The almighty dollar. In twenty twenty one, I interviewed Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, episode three hundred ninety seven about his dollar milkshake theory. A controversial theory that flew in the face of those who believe that the dollar is on the verge of its demise. I highly encourage you to go back to my 2021 interview with Brent episode three hundred ninety seven, where we explore the theory in depth. In that conversation, I asked Brent what DXY or Dollar Index level would cause him to be concerned. His answer was ninety seven, with a caveat that the rate of increase was much more important. twenty twenty two, an increase of nearly nineteen percent from the top of the year. Brent's short answer to when the dollar milkshake would go into effect was when debt matters again.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As you mentioned earlier, some small companies eventually grow up to be bigger companies. Netflix comes to mind. They IPO'd a little over $300 million. What are some of the biggest success stories that you've followed from Micro that have transitioned into macro?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, back in 1999, Buffett said that he could still achieve 50% annual returns if he was working with like 10 million or so. What strategies do you imagine he'd be implementing in that case? Would it simply be just concentrating heavily into these smaller companies, I think like you are? Or are there like, you know, we talk in Greenblatt spinoffs and other kind of strategies thrown in there? What do you think the playbook would look like?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As you can see there, Josh isn't convinced that the major producers are the way to go. In fact, in our conversation he highlighted his position. This really intrigued me because this year I have also really taken an interest in microcaps. In fact, microcaps had a fairly decent year, and by decent I mean just slightly less bad than their larger cap counterparts. Microcaps are generally companies with market caps between fifty million and three hundred million. In an effort to learn more, I invited on Ian Castle a microcap expert who highlighted the fact that investors like Buffett and Peter Lynch actually got their start by investing in microcap companies and maybe even more surprisingly had high turnover. Meaning these weren't buy and hold forever type positions. Let's take a listen.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I totally get that, and it makes sense. I mean, given Buffett's size or portfolio, he's working with, I'm kind of curious, though, is something like a Chevron or even Occidental is just massive size of those companies. Is that a moat in and of itself?”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That position is worth about fifteen billion dollars for a combined total of forty seven billion dollars. I brought Josh back on episode four hundred sixty eight to learn about Buffett's bets and his track record in investing in energy.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's worth noting that at the time of this recording, the price of oil has fallen back down to eighty dollars a barrel, but that the U.S. has depleted one hundred seventy seven thousand barrels of oil or thirty percent from its special petroleum reserve, or SPR, which is now at the lowest levels in history, meaning we've been using our reserve of oil to flood the market, and you could argue artificially bring the price down and ease the inflation burden for our citizens, but it's only a temporary fix. If Josh is correct, we may be setting ourselves up for much higher oil prices in the future, which would inevitably lead to higher inflation. This likely explains why Warren Buffett made some huge bets on oil producers this year. Roughly eighty percent of Berkshire Hathaway's Chevron steak of one hundred seventy million shares now worth thirty two billion dollars was accumulated in 2022.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That energy affects nearly everything else. For example, transportation makes up over 18%, and food and beverage makes up over 14% of CPI, and typically energy is one of the biggest contributing costs. To better understand energy, I interviewed energy expert Josh Young of Bison Interest on episode 429. In our conversation, Josh highlighted why the price of oil had skyrocketed this year, peaking at 122 on july eighth. He revealed that due to ESG narratives, a lack of investment in the energy sector has set up a potential huge gap between supply capacity and future demand. When I suggested that high oil prices would create a proverbial gold rush were producers would come in and the price would ultimately fall, Josh responded with this.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Michael and I went on to talk a lot more about valuations, how to quantify a business's mode and discount rates. It was one of my favorite conversations all year. Now one important thing to remember about your discount rate is that you have to account for expected inflation. And since inflation had been ticking up over the last year, I really wanted to better understand the driving factors. There are a few different metrics for measuring inflation, and I want to highlight advice from our co-host Preston Pish that you should develop your own personal way of measuring inflation, meaning you should consider what you actually spend money on and at what rate these items or services are increasing. But a very popular metric albeit controversial to some, is the consumer price index. Typically when you hear that inflation is at seven percent, etc, people are referring to the CPI. Energy goods and services a category of which gasoline is a major component accounts for roughly seven point five percent of the overall CPI. But it's also important to remember”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“While Jeremy was confident in his predictions and rightly so, a lot of people I spoke to agree that this was the most unpredictable market environment they had ever experienced in their career. Will there be a recession? Will we have runaway inflation? Stagflation? What about a deflationary surprise? It reminded me of a quote by Socrates who stated I only know one thing that I know nothing. Macroeconomic developments are endlessly fascinating and it's a really fun game to try and predict the future, but a lot of my conversations led me back to wanting to simply focus more on a company's fundamentals. In my 2021 takeaways episode, I showcased a conversation with Brian Ferraldi episode 375 where we explored the idea that a price-to-earnings ratio is only relevant to companies once they've hit a certain level of scale. who provided one of my favorites.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And peaked on New Year's Eve before beginning its massive reversal on New Year's Day. A huge focus this year was on the Fed as it raised rates to combat inflation. This prompted a lot of speculation around whether or not we would enter a stagflationary environment where inflation is joined by high unemployment. It appears that at least for 2022 that didn't quite pan out as unemployment has remained low. But in an effort to understand the potential of stagflation, I brought back Jeremy Grantham on episode four hundred sixty six to get his few points.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if this acute inflation would be, quote, transitory. In early 2022, it became clear that inflation was going to be much more persistent than expected. I interviewed billionaire and investing legend Jeremy Grantham back in August 2021, episode three hundred seventy one, and he predicted that the top of the market was just upon us. I referenced it again in my top takeaways episode for 2021, episode four hundred and nine at the end of the year. Turns out he was spot on. One of my favorite lines that Jeremy used was that bull markets have these termites that typically eat away at the high flying tech stocks first. The Nasdaq peaked on november nineteenth, twenty twenty one. The market began to realize that Fed hikes would be inevitable due to the persistent inflation and the major sell offs began. Interestingly, forty percent of the Nasdaq companies were down by fifty percent or more by December twenty one. The S&P five hundred Lagnet bit just as Grantham had predicted.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“2022 started off with a bang. And when I say bang, I'm referring to the last sound the bull market heard before the bear took over. 2022 was the worst year of the past half century for stocks and bonds combined. The first four months experienced the fastest decline in the SP five hundred since nineteen thirty nine. Looking back, it's clear to see that the market topped in november twenty twenty one and there were all kinds of signs. Elon Musk was selling his Tesla share something he claimed he would never do. Jeff Bezos sold nearly nine billion dollars worth of Amazon stock. Board Ape NFT eighty eight seventeen had just sold for three point four million, so it's safe to say the things were getting a little scorily. But along the way, a fundamental issue had been taking root, inflation. The CPI or consumer price index pegged inflation at six point eight percent in November twenty twenty one, and the federal funds rate was still sitting at zero point zero eight. The Fed had been”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To these Titans of industry, and I'm even more humble that you join me on the journey. My hope is that you got as much out of it as I did, so without further delay, here are my top takeaways from 2022.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In this episode, I discuss my top takeaways from some of my conversations from 2022. I'll be sharing soundbites from the interviews to allow the guests to showcase their perspectives in their own words. While there's no way I could possibly distill everything I learned across fifty nine episodes or sixty plus hours of interviews I conducted this year, I tried to capture the ones that really changed the trajectory of my thinking or investing style. In this episode, you will learn how today's inflation compares to nineteen seventy with Jeremy Grantham, why Michael Mobison says you have to earn the right to use evaluation multiple, how energy impacts inflation with Josh Young, why investors should consider microcaps with Ian Castle, the vindication of the dollar milkshake theory with Brent Johnson, market indicators from Dan Rasmussen, Joe Brown, and others, and a whole lot more. It's been another incredible year of insights from some of the top investors in the world. I'm incredibly honored and privileged to have had the opportunity to speak.”
2023-01-06 · We Study Billionaires · TIP512: Top Takeaways from 2022 w/ Trey Lockerbie · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT