YouSaid · the spoken record

Tuur Demeester

lines on the record: 73
first: 2021-07-07
most recent: 2021-07-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I don't know that. I mean, I think that maybe your risk is relatively limited because how long are all the components really in China to assemble it and ship it out? So it's a trade-off. But I think in general, I'm reminded of this, you might know it even. I went to the Gata Gold Conference. It was called Gata Gold Rush 2007. It was in London. It was like, ironically, it was kind of like the peak of the gold price at the time. There was like a lot of exuberance. Anyway, it's like a big gold conference. And that was the first time I got to speak actual, you know, gold miners and people investing in gold mines. And I remember this one guy saying that a pattern that he'd seen over and over over the decades is that people would go to these very shady jurisdictions, you know, banana republics for lack of better words and have kind of like dollar bills in their eyes because they saw that certain in certain areas the ore grade was super high. So all of a sudden you would find”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's not what Capacity that's being created. Maybe similar Is creating extra demands, maybe over time it's going to diversify production of chips as well. Apply more robust, but you know, that's speculation because so far it's probably very tiny that Bitcoin demand compared to cell phones.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not Political tension that the US is really trying to. Production capac Outside of the regular Centro now, because China's influenced fear has a lot. And that's kind of like a bottleneck potent In a way, Bitcoin might. Similar to what Bitcoin mining is doing to local electricity places where it's kind of Making the network more robust, like in Texas, for example, by adding new capacity to the net, you basically have a bigger buffer for things if all of a sudden there's another polar vortex or another problem. Then prices spike in the network. Miners just switch off their Bitcoin miners. Excess electricity to the network that would not have been there had they not been mining there, right? And people don't, it's hard for people to, they often think that. Electricity capacity is like a static piece of pie, and that Bitcoin is just coming.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It could be hard, the recovery because miners are trying to move to Kazakhstan, but apparently supply there is very, very tight, electricity supply. And then of course, if you want to move to the west, like Canada or the US, you got to pay import taxes on the machines. And it might take three, four months to even physically move everything. And then additionally, we're having a semiconductor chip shortage globally. Recently there was a report that Bitmain cut down their order of chips by $300 million just because TSMC didn't have the capacity. And so it doesn't matter if you have a lot of money that you're just not getting the chips allocated to you because there's a global shortage. And so because of that, I agree. I think the difficulty is going to plateau for a while, which is great for the existing miners, right? The people who are not in China are very happy, of course.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“one of the most objective indicators of how much hash rate was actually present in China. I think rather than it being more, I think it's actually less than what people thought it was. A lot of the reports are saying like 70%, but I remember hearing even Bitmain diversifying away from China back in 2018 because they were cracking down on exchanges. And of course, if you have a brain, you know the next step could be mining. They've been diversifying away from China since 2018. the hash rate has been dropping. And so I think 40, 50%, maybe between 30 and 50% was actually mining in China. The minus 50%, you also have to take it with a grain of salt. Like you got to look at the moving average. You're always going to have spikes one way or another. So I don't think you can exactly take the top and then look at the exact bottom now.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Micro traders who first got involved in Bitcoin back in 2016 just based on this story alone. They were like, capital flight is happening out of China. People are using Bitcoin. Therefore, I'm long Bitcoin. That was their only thesis for a long time.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think what it is is that we have evidence going back to 2014. China is fearful of capital flight. They're fearful of capital flight. The RNMB is not very strong. It was very, very strong for 20 years, extremely strong against the dollar. And then in 2014, you saw these devaluations, like the cracks, the chinks in the armor. And then they had a big devaluation in 2015. And of course, the political with Hong Kong and stuff, there's a lot of Z is really kind of a dictator more and more, more than a pro-free market guy. And so the big money is wanting to get out of China. And so that's been happening for five, six years now. And Bitcoin mining is a great way to do that, right? You pay with R&B the electricity bills and then the Bitcoin are like offshore Bitcoins, right? And you can move them anywhere. So I think that's the real motivation. And they're never going to say this publicly, but I think that's what's behind this.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Disappear all of a sudden, or you know, so many scenarios think of all. And also the profit motive is gone. Like if you're just being paid a fixed wage, no matter the profitability of your firm, why would you care how well everything is maintained? So nationalization, yeah, and so like, and then more in specifically this scenario, I mean, it's just not what I think we would get different information. Like we would see right now we are getting real information that real rigs are they're trying to move them to Kazakhstan and they're trying to move them to the US and you know we see the photos and the videos and it's just very strange that China would do it in such a weird way like if you want to nationalize you nationalize you don't shut it down first to then reboot it up it doesn't make sense to me I'm open for the possibility but it doesn't make sense”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, first in general, like one thing that I think is very underappreciated is how difficult it is for governments to nationalize an industry. And there is data about this. If you look at the oil industry, and it's not incredibly difficult to keep an oil rig operation running, like it requires know-how, but it's not crazy difficult to keep it running. But the track record is horrendous. So like Venezuela and when countries nationalize an oil company, the production tends to go down by 50% over the next few years. And it's for all kinds of reasons. Bureaucracy, it's just in general, like the same with, you know, if you have a train company that's private and then it gets made public, the efficiency just plummets. And so no doubt the same would happen if you nationalize a Bitcoin mining. You know, the efficiency, look, how easy would it be to just have some mining rigs?”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is like just another stress test, and overall it's a great thing for Bitcoin. I wasn't expecting it, but it's kind of like what you want in general is for all the governments to play all their cards. And this is kind of playing their crackdown cards.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Broken, and people are like all of a sudden worried. And so I think weirdly, people were comfortable with the fact that there was so much mining happening in China. It was kind of like, it was a reason to be worried, but like it had been there for so long. I think there's just right now people just don't know what it means. I think that is what the market is saying. Like, we don't really know what this means, but it's a big change and we're really worried. But the reality is this is an amazing stress test for Bitcoin and it's just the network is of course 100% uptime. Actually, if you look at in dollar terms, the fees aren't really that affected. It's still $5 to send a Bitcoin even though there's way less blocks per day being mined than before. The miners are having a field day. You know, the non-Chinese miners are having massive increase in profitability and revenues. So I forget what your additional question was. To me, this”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, it's so interesting how I'm just thinking of this. You could argue there's actually a parallel with 2013 here where because we rallied to 270 bucks and then we crashed down to $80. And I'm trying to remember what the catalyst was, but it was some kind of fear, uncertainty, doubt about, you know, I was going to say Silk Road, but somehow it feels like that was later. And then so the story is that during 2013, so he rallied from, I mean, it was all the way down at 30 bucks. $270 down to 80. And then we were like in the doldrums for the longest time we were trading between like $90 and $150. And then by the end of the year, so like before the year was over, we rallied to $1,100, like almost gold parody. Since the beginning of this bull, I've been wondering, like, huh, is it possible that we could get a replay of that, where first there's enthusiasm, and then somehow the story gets a bit.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Michael Saylor is doing. And so if you start doing that on a national, so it's like that's what I mean with the ramifications all of a sudden Bitcoin has entered this sphere of nation states. And so these kind of scenarios are now very real and becoming very serious. And that's like, wow, like is the IMF going to have to do that? And like, I think the World Bank is something similar where their charter says that they support whichever the legal tenders are of all the countries. And so now they have to offer support for Bitcoin as well. So it's interesting. I mean, of course, I think they're going to wiggle and they're going to try and change the rules and knowing politics, that's probably going to happen. But we have our field day like leaning back and eating some popcorn, watching them trying to wriggle from under this.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's a guy, an academic, who wrote in 2013. In 2013, he wrote, I think it's the IMF. The IMF is responsible for protecting national currencies against speculative attacks, which basically means you go long a strong currency and you go short the small fiat currency of one small nation. And in order to do that, to protect against those attacks, the IMF acquires strong currencies so that they can play the other side of the band and protect whoever's being attacked. And so in 2013, a paper, you know, PDF and a peer reviewed paper appeared that suggesting like, well, one day the IMF should buy Bitcoin because people are going to use Bitcoin to do these type of attacks, which is basically you borrow the fiat currency and you buy Bitcoin with the borrowings, which is the micro strategy strategy. That's what”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you know, it's one of those things that you want to predict. Like for the longest time, be like, oh yeah, that's for 2020. But you say that in like 2014. It's like, you know, a million years away, but it's like, damn, it's like 2021 and it happened. It's just, and then the ramifications, like other countries that are thinking about it now, all of a sudden, like the IMF is scrambling and the World Bank, like, oh no, like our charter says this and now we got to do this.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That we were gonna at some point run into global warming like that crowd, but it's still like it always surprises me like maybe it's because I feel like I'm not like that like I usually only write about something if I feel like I've done a bunch of research like I might put a tweet out that is just like you know a brain fart but when it's like an article it's like I feel serious about it I've done research But like a lot of people seem to not have that inhibition like they'll just kind of put out things and I'm like what what are you talking about like this is absurd and so I guess I just keep getting surprised in that sense in the positive sense we have a country that made Bitcoin legal tender like how amazing is that it's like 11 years in”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it's like what has surprised me, but I feel like I've been trying to prepare myself over and over and I still get surprised. I hope this does not sound like insulting, but I want to say like the shape of delusion. People come into this space, like new people. It's like the eternal September. Like there's always new people coming in who have not heard of anything and they get excited about particular things. And so there's a certain story that emerges from that. And so the story in 2017 was ICOs. And then now we've had the story of NFTs, which actually I do think is kind of interesting, but there's also kind of like, there's new tokens still. And I think now a big part of the story is like proof of stake. There's a lot of excitement about earning money with your coins. But even still, you know, like the fud about the mining, for example, like that it was eco. I did have a sense.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That'd be really cool. Yeah, and you know what? People who hear this It's like, you know, it's not going to be some random. News item that you'll hear like, oh, the account is open, it'll be like you're listening to the investors podcast, you're kind of really into this stuff. And so, yeah, like if you Google my name, I still think it's my Twitter account. Hopefully on the day that this airs, I'm going to try and open it up so that people can just, if you encounter it and it's closed, like just you can request to follow me and I still manually go through the list and I still manually approve people. But it's true if you have a really long name with lots of letters and symbols, I'm probably not going to approve the follow because that looks like a spam account to me.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I was just talking about it with my wife today, and I was thinking just for this occasion we did something special. And what if on the day that this podcast airs, I'm going to try to open up the account?”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's been my thinking, and it's just, you know, it's been nice and it's been Zen to just, you know, have the private account, a bunch of followers, so I get plenty of discussion and it's a lot of fun.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like the other bands like you, but you're not really world famous, which there's examples of that, or like a comedian's comedian or whatever you call it.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That way. And he kind of is like, oh, you know, imagine your high school that you grew up in maybe like five of those people of your high school are going to develop mental issues, which is fair and that's probably true. And then if you extrapolate, like what if your following is 100,000 or a million or five million? And then you extrapolate those numbers too. And that's when you get those stalkers and things like that. And you just don't know. There's a big unknown there. And then the upside is also not very clear. But like for me, it's like there isn't that much upside. Ideally, I love research and like ideally I want to be like the fleetwood Mac of Bitcoin where it's like you're like a band of bands.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All the time, and so that's like one thing, but to be honest. The main reason was I read this article by Tim Ferris, 11 reasons not to become famous, and he wrote that when was that? I think 2020 sometime. I mean, it was really scary to me. It's like, it really made me think about, especially given how strong Bitcoin bull markets can be, it's like it almost doesn't matter what you write. Like people are just going to pile in and follow you. So it's like, man, I'm at like $100,000 now. Like, what if I grow to like a million followers just because of the market? And he just makes the case that like it's a trade-off, you know, like being having notoriety and as that grows, the shape of the trade-off changes. And he makes the point, which I think is really fair, that a certain subset, a small percentage of the population, it just has psychological issues. And they are prone to projecting things into public figures. You can get really scary situations.”
2021-07-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC033: Important Bitcoin Considerations w/ Tuur Demeester (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT