YouSaid · the spoken record

Khazin

lines on the record

8

first

2023-07-21

most recent

2023-07-21

sittings or episodes

1

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un-security-council

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1. “I just want to say one more thing, which is that the deal on Russia’s participation will have far greater consequences for food market prices and the humanitarian situation than the deal with Ukraine. I think we need a greater focus on it in the discussion for it to be implemented.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

2. “It is possible that the central global food markets will see a collapse into some collection of regional groups, something that is already being much discussed, which is extremely dangerous where the effectiveness of food supplies is concerned, especially on the humanitarian front. In that regard, and in conclusion, I want to say that unfortunately there are indeed problems related to implementation of both the first deal, on Ukraine’s participation, and the second, on Russia’s participation. However, in terms of the impact, both on general global markets and on the humanitarian front, the limitations for Russia are far more dangerous than for Ukrainian exports.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

3. “In other words, there are decisions being made today that de facto restrict the Russian Federation — and the reason I say “de facto” is because formally, both the United Nations and the United States have repeatedly said that food is not a restricted category, but the pressure on economic actors is so great that many have refused to cooperate with the Russian Federation regarding the transportation of food and fertilizers. The inevitable result will be dire problems and huge shortages of grain on global markets a year or two from now. We are not in a position today to say what the price increase will be, because the markets are so unbalanced.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

4. “And for that reason, the withdrawal of Russian grain from that market will definitely result in collapse. The problem is that the effect of the sanctions policies on the financial situation and logistics is rendering Russia’s production of grain for export unprofitable. We have not seen that problem yet, but next year, as a result of those policies, we could see a significant drop in Russian grain exports, which would be a real disaster for the markets, with huge price rises. An additional factor is the supply of Russian fertilizer. Russia represents more than 15 per cent of the global fertilizer market and a significant share of the market for fertilizer components, especially ammonia. Fertilizers represent future harvests. If less fertilizer goes into the ground this year, there will be a significant decline in harvests worldwide.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

5. “Simply in order to understand how difficult the situation in the markets is now, we should note that in the United States, inflation in the industry was above 20 per cent a year ago, and today, one year later, it is at minus-9 per cent. In other words, we are seeing a process of deflation. That makes it impossible to establish any kind of stable forecast of the situation or the market’s response to various factors. That most likely represents the market’s reaction to the pandemic in 2019 and 2020. But in the next few years there should be a very strong reaction. Turning to the second part of the grain deal, Russia accounts for approximately one third of the grain exports. That is approximately 60 million tons in a total market of 160 million to 180 million tons.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

6. “It is likely to ship approximately the same amount next year, because the drop in the harvest this year in Russia is insignificant, somewhere between 4 and 5 per cent. We should take that into account because since those grain shipments were not intended for humanitarian purposes but commercial ones, their impact on shipments to poor countries is trivial. Only 3 per cent went to the poorest countries. In that regard, a qualitative assessment of the impact of the grain deal in terms of the supplies of Ukrainian grain to global markets suggests that it is not very significant. As I have said, it has been almost impossible to make precise assessments because in the past few years the markets have been exceedingly unbalanced.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

7. “If we are talking about wheat alone, of the total 30 million tons shipped, Ukraine supplied a comparable volume for export through other channels, and we should take into account that this grain was commercial. It belonged to private individuals and was already contracted for. That means that its impact on the market last year was due to the fact that it had already been accounted for in the current fiscal year. If we look at the situation from a perspective of one or two years ago, the picture would be different. In particular, for example, grain exports from Russia have increased over the past year, and Russia has significantly increased its wheat exports, from 35 to 58 million tons.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source

8. “As an economist, I will try give a more or less objective economic picture of all the agreements on the grain deal. First of all, it should be said that at the moment there are no objective criteria for assessing market price changes in connection with the deal. Yes, when it was made, there was a sharp drop in prices, but that was because last year there had been a unique combination of unfavourable circumstances. We also have to take into account the fact that the start of the deal coincided with the forecasts for future harvests, which were favourable, so a decline in prices was expected, and there was nothing surprising about that. If we look at the total amount of grain supplied by Ukraine, we should note that most of it is corn and barley, which in fact are not generally shipped to poor countries or used by food programmes.”

   2023-07-21 · UN Security Council · Security Council, S/PV.9382 (2023) · source