YouSaid · the spoken record

Velina Peneva

lines on the record: 88
first: 2025-06-27
most recent: 2025-06-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“So, when you study in academia, you do a lot of analysis, right? So we talked about markets are overvalued, multiples are high. I think when I was starting out, I had a lot more belief in, you know, rigorous analysis and numbers give you the right answer. I think investing is much more messy, right? Putting in the rigor of the analysis with understanding behavior and human biases. Technicals, flows that is the way you get a fuller picture of the investment space. And I think we talk a lot, I mean, there's a lot of very smart people that are very good with numbers, but I think understanding behavior and people is just as important.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. So I think that young people really need to be open minded and explore and take opportunities for what they are, right? So if you're given the chance to, if you're loving what you do, but you're given the chance to experiment with something else, instead of immediately saying no, think twice and think, you know, what could I learn? How could this be good for me? Because I think that richness of experience at the end makes you a better business person.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say don't narrow down your options too early. As I've experienced in my career, I've done a lot of different things, and I learned in each experience, even though they might not look related, I've learned things that have made me a better investor, a better leader. And I think a lot of young people today come in to the workforce and say, I know what I want to do. And I think that they actually don't.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or the selfish gene, right? That's a Richard Dawkins book that also, I mean, this author disproves some of the thesis, right? Because Richard Dawkins basically says, well, hygienes basically make us You know, the species we are, and there's a lot of not so good features. This version says, Well, there's a lot of misrepresentation there, and ultimately he shows examples of why people. I mean, he gives them the example of when soldiers in the First World War, you know, what percent of debts was caused by people directly shooting at the enemy? And that was a tiny percent. Really? Because soldiers had a very difficult time to look the enemy in the eye and kill them. So most of the deaths were done by grenade or kind of indirect means. Because ultimately, humans don't want to hurt other humans.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. But a lot of history has been telling us that we have this veneer of civility and underneath. We're untrustworthy and evil beings. And I think he goes through a lot of that and this proves a lot of historical beliefs. And in this day and age, you need some optimism. And I'd say this book gives you belief and trust in humanity.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, today I'm reading a book called Humankind. It's by a Dutch writer called Rutger Bragman, and the premise of the book is that Humans are innately kind. And meanwhile, so our human nature is not savage. But it's actually good, right? And he goes through, um,”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Amazing innovation, right? So it shows you also the best of humanity that, you know, when people put their mind to it, they can solve really impossible problems. But I think that the outcome is a mixed bag for humanity.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Their native language. But the concepts were pretty fascinating to think about, I mean, I mean, it was a lot about game theory, right? And the fact that humanity lacks the ability of reacting to existential long-term threats, right? And what is the psychology behind it, even when faced with something that guarantees destruction of humanity?”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Say my all-time favorite is the three body problem It's a trilogy by now mispronouncing the name Lu Tsushin. And it's sci-fi mixed with history, philosophy, game theory. You name it. I don't know if you are familiar with the book.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Early on, it was definitely my grandmother. She was a professor of agronomy back in the day. Agronomy is the science of agriculture. And she took a keen interest in my education and really pushing me to push myself to do better, to have the right moral compass. So some of the lessons that weren't instilled in me are still from her time. And then during the Bayners, a partner called Dan Haas, who was one of the founders of our private equity practice back. In Boston, and whom I met In Zurich, and who I blame for staying in Zurich Permanently after I came in 2009. But he really has played a fundamental role in kind of coaching me on both my career moves, on how I approach problems, just listening at times and really being an invaluable friend and coach.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm going to look into that. That sounds interesting. They hold one or two percent share in some of the largest companies. So he gets to interview CEOs of these companies. And it's always pretty fascinating discussion.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That sounds good. It's Nikolai Tang, and he's the CEO of the Norges B So that's the largest sovereign wealth fund in Norway. And there are large equity investor and they”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This is real, so it's an amazing technology that's being used to record this, but it follows different insects in their natural environment at a very with amazing cameras, right? So they have... You basically get a macro view of how a dragonfly Flies and how a dragonfly runs away from frogs or other animals. So it's a fascinating show. So that's on the TV side. On podcasts, in good company. I guess this might be a competitive podcast to yours. It's Nikolai Tangan.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I have two kids, and I try to. Show them some more intellectual programming. And the latest show we've been watching is called The Real Bugs Life. On Disney Which is, if you know a bug's life, it was a Disney movie”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And we do, I mean, again, we're in the business of tail risk So we also do think about what could be a really, really tail scenario and what that means for our business, but we do it not just at the asset management level more broadly at the group level.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Nance this is you call it fatter tails. So we see the more uncertainty means that it's less clear what will turn out to be. So there are more scenarios that are more likely.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At certain levels. These are the levels at which we'll add risk, this amount of risk and as the market goes down, we'll continue to add risk. And then we have playbooks to think about, okay, at what levels if the market recovers, has it gone too far and we lighten up on risk? And those playbooks have taken the emotion and the bias out of the decisions. And it makes it much, you know, much less stressful in a way. to execute on strategy”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we discuss in which scenario are we moving? So that's one thing we have done. And I think that provides a lot more flexibility in thinking. And the second is we think ahead of risk events. So markets are much more volatile today. And typically at the depth of a correction, you're scared. Don't know how to interpret the information you're getting, and you're paralyzed in making decisions. So what we do is we Have playbooks to say if the market moves”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we have moved from thinking in baseline and other scenarios to what is the range of outcomes that we should expect and what do we need to be tracking on the macro side, on kind of the high frequency data side to understand are we moving from the scenario we think we're in right now to something else. But if you have that path you have fewer surprises, right? So that's one thing that we have done. And we dynamically assess the probabilities of those scenarios on a monthly basis. We have an investment committee and we do a survey of 15 investment committee members to say, what do you think the odds are? It's kind of the wisdom of the crowd's idea.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, if you think about how we plan on an annual or three-year basis, for many years, we would have a baseline, right? There's a 70% chance that this will happen and we'll set up our portfolio and our decisions based on this core scenario. And then there's some tail scenarios which we will assess and we'll look at how could we assess whether we're moving into those scenarios today. Our baseline quote unquote is a 40% odds. So I don't want to even call it a baseline.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“20 points And if you think about what makes private equity successful, it is a leveraged buyout, right? Ultimately, part of the value of those transactions is in the leverage part and lower interest rates clearly are beneficial for the private equity space.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's definitely a tailwind for private equity, right? So, what we see is European funding cost has actually fallen 20 basis points since Liberation Day. Versus in the US, funding cost has gone up”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I would say that And maybe that's my private market's background. I continue to see Opportunities in private markets. In part because you have imperfect information, you can actually Add value to your portfolio if you really have the channels and expertise. I think Arius like infrastructure debt are ones that will only grow in the next few years because the world needs a lot more new infrastructure. And companies that provide loans but also equity in the infrastructure space will both find a lot of deals but also have a lot of opportunities. So you need to think of it from a macro perspective of what you know where is the need for capital and do we have the expertise as a team to provide a solution that is uniquely fitted to that?”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think what matters is what is the symptom behind these events? These wars are a symptom of the fact that we have deglobalization, we're moving in different spheres of influence, and Swiss Re is a truly global company. So the value we bring is that we can ensure tail risks because we can diversify a lot of tail risks at a global level, right? We reinsure Earthquakes in California and in Japan and hurricanes in Florida and pandemics and those risks are uncorrelated at the global level. And in order to provide that extra cover, you need to have a global mindset. And in an environment where globalization is no longer what it was 10 years ago, one needs to think about how does that impact truly global businesses. So we think about it as long-term trend and impact on where we think the portfolio needs to go versus making tactical decisions.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, if you look at history and what impact wars have on markets, the conclusion is that yes, there's a short-term shock, but in the long term, even within a few months. That dissipates. So making near term investment decisions driven by geopolitics is probably not the best investment strategy.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Taxes are higher. Taxes are higher. But there is this social. That you know, that people value, right? You also, you know, you go to most European cities You don't see homeless people on the street to the degree. You don't have some of these extreme situations that you have in the US. And I mean, the question is, how far is What's the right balance? So, I'm not saying that it's all good, right? You also Have a generation in Europe that expects this but doesn't understand the cost that it comes. It comes at and expects a lifestyle and expects work life balance, but at the same time Doesn't have the work ethic required to keep the economy successful.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think the European expectation for what a good life is is probably quite a bit different. From the American definition, I think that there's some people see certain elements of government service as basic, right? So be it healthcare, education, right? I can send my kids to a Swiss university for, I don't know, a thousand francs. Year, and you know, you can get an MIT type education for a small fraction of what you pay in the US, right? And that's considered a social good. So I think that”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But some of it is kind of a European penalty just given all the Regulation and slow growth and challenges that Europe has been facing. So, yes, we have done better in Europe in the equity space than in the last year than in the last 10. But I think the gap is still pretty meaningful. And I think there's some level of optimism that Europe will need to really speed up investments, whether it's military or infrastructure. I think that Europe has woken up to the fact that In order to quote unquote, survive in this new geopolitical environment, they need to get their act together and they need to start focusing on investing and reducing a bit the regulatory burden that we've had on companies on the continent.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I want to start by saying that Europe still has a lot of catching up to do. For sure. So, if you look at multiples in Europe, there in kind of the mid teens now, multiples in the US. Are mid 20s, slow mid 20s. So there's still a pretty big valuation gap. And some of that is just the constitution of the market. You have more high tech, more high growth.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But if you think about what companies are issuing that credit, these are Maybe this will sound controversial. Some of these companies are more creditworthy than some governments. So, in a way, you could imagine a situation where some investment grade credit even goes tighter. So Microsoft could have negative spread. Right. Microsoft.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, and if you think about also. IG credit, investment grade credit, you could almost argue the other surprise has been how tight spreads. Have become in high quality credit.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there's not that many assets to invest in. So if you look at the size of the US stock market versus the amount of money that needs to be invested, you have a bit of a supply demand imbalance, which basically is keeping valuations higher than historically.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, if you look at the valuations, if you look at the fundamentals, it's surprising, right? Because you would expect, I mean, you're seeing the consumer slowing down. You still have high interest rates. Valuations, especially in the US, are in their top deciles. And outlook is not looking as promising as a few months back. So I think from a pure fundamentals, Perspective, it's surprising, but markets are not, you know better than me, markets are not driven purely by fundamentals. There are a lot of technicals that have maintained the resilience of the market. First of all, there's just a lot of money out there.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the good news for us was that we don't hold a lot of listed equities Right, so it was more an opportunity to think about our playbook of when do we add exposure in the market versus stressing. So we actually, if we look back. At that period of about a month, where you had extreme volatility, we didn't make a lot of sharp turns. It was about, you know, are we still comfortable with the portfolio we are holding? We had come into the year. With cautious optimism, right? But I think the emphasis is on cautious. And we felt comfortable holding the risk that we had in the book. At the same time, we were surprised by the resilience of the market, right? I mean, this was a very sharp reaction. But the recovery was also lightning fast.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the extent of the announcement on april second was a shock, right? I don't think that, I mean, if you remember, That day, people couldn't understand the magnitude of some of the numbers that were shown on that chart and what the formula was and what it really meant. But I think the direction of travel was, you know, if you had listened to also what the president said before the election, we expected some level of increase in tariffs. I think it was just the way it was communicated and the execution of it that caught many, including us off guard.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I wish I said that we were super surprised. I mean, we do always tend to be a little bit glass half empty because we are a risk company, we are a risk knowledge company. But bond investment.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's done. Exactly. But back in January, the sentiment was super bullish. It was all about U.S. exceptionalism. It was all about AI and how AI will drive returns to the moon. And the sentiment has vastly shifted. So just the speed with which we saw sentiment reverse and the narrative reverse this year a few times now. Has been to some degree surprising.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I have to say, coming into the year, sentiment was very bullish. I was in Divols in January, and there's always the joke of whatever you hear in Duvos, the reverse will happen.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've had some re ratings, but I mean, we were, we also have middle market lending, so we have been expecting to see. Some wobble, but not so much, and not so much. Yeah. And I think, and you always attribute.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, it's a fair insight, and I think if there's one concern that we have is if you look at when this space really exploded, it was after the financial crisis. And there hasn't been a test of the market. So, since 2010, there hasn't been a real credit crisis to really test the quality of these products. And I think they have new products have kept coming to the market, some with a very short history. And we still don't know how private credit will actually react in a more prolonged crisis.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think this was a problem for the whole industry, especially for the insurance industry, given how much reliance we have. On fixed income That was the driver in a way for us to start looking at areas like private debt. Because there you have bespoke transactions, and you can definitely earn a premium versus what you get even in the corporate bond space. But I mean, I'm not going to lie, you're looking, you're reaching for yield in those moments.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Private credit is in the news a lot these days. The reality is that private credit is not one asset class. There are many, many flavors. And you have private credit that is mostly IG-like investment grade-like, senior secured loans. You have some pretty speculative asset classes and Swiss Re has been focusing on the former. So we started building and we plan that asset class in a more direct way. So we provide infrastructure loans. Directly to projects And we underwrite each of those loans. So we have a pretty high bar of what we see as quality and also the private debt premium, so that's the premium above the spread that those loans provide in order to put those in our portfolio.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We start the year always with highlighting where we think markets will go and what is our baseline and what are our scenarios. So of course what the Fed will do impacts markets, impacts valuations, impacts interest rates. So of course we follow it. We are long-term investors so we try to while we I'd say sometimes successively follow the market news. We try to separate the noise from what we really need to do.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So economic returns is if you have a bond and the market value of that bond moves in a negative direction, even if it pays your yield, net-net, you might be losing economic value on holding that position. In IFRS, if you hold a corporate bond, the market movements would not go through PNL.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you want to, so as I mentioned, we do focus on long-term value creation And if you think about, again, our optimizing function, most institutional investors focus on economic returns. We focus on economic returns and accounting returns. And we always need to strike that balance of...”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Match liabilities that is our risk free way of matching liabilities. And then the rest is corporate credit and private debt. And private debt has been one of the asset classes that we have participated in for a long time, but where we're seeing a lot of opportunity. So if you say 85% fixed income, the rest is private equity, listed equity. We have some minority positions, and then real estate.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“cannot be returned to the lessers in Russia all of these macro big events ultimately hit reinsurance or if there's a big pandemic and the Tokyo Olympics are delayed that is a reinsurance level event”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no, absolutely. I mean, we are ultimately the insurer of insurance companies. We ensure the tail. So every time you open the paper and there's a big event. You should think of Swiss Really and what the impact is. So whether there is You know, the Suez Canal is blocked or there's a big earthquake or the airplanes”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I think that's why the whole element of liquidity and stability is so important on the asset side. We need to have a sustainable portfolio regardless of cycle and regardless of what happens, which means we need to hold more liquidity than you would think at first glance. And we need to have a portfolio that can cover liability, so it cannot be the case that if a hurricane hits and we have claims and people are waiting to get paid to rebuild their roof, we say we're sorry, but there is a market crisis.”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, its annual renewal, And it's a function of what happens with natural catastrophes. So whether you have a hurricane or an earthquake, but that business renews. Every year. So it's a very short tale”
2025-06-27 · Masters in Business · Swiss Re's Velina Peneva on the Business of Reinsurance · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source