YouSaid · the spoken record

Victor Riparbelli

lines on the record: 84
first: 2025-01-15
most recent: 2025-01-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“I definitely think so. I definitely think so. Not having to worry about financial stress and having everything you own in one stock, I definitely think frees you up to make better decisions. So I definitely, I mean, everyone I need angels and I definitely encourage take seconders off the table when you can. I'm 100% certain that we take no seconders at all. We would definitely have thought about selling much earlier. And you might have made more rational decisions, right?”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My parents' generation, they saw computers as this inherently socially isolated thing of like you're just sitting and like dopamine addicted to like clicking buttons exactly what people say about TikTok today, right? The reality is usually much more nuanced than I think for me when I play computer games as a kid. First of all, it's a very social thing, both because you play with other people online. And I think our parents have a hard time believing you can be friends with people you haven't met in real life. And second, all that is like a waste of time, right? As I said, why do you think if you're playing strategy games, I would sideline that with like solving math problems or reading STEM books? Of course, everything in moderation, that's one thing I'll definitely encourage my kids to play great computer games.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a hard one. I would take my Cuban again because he truly believed when attitude no one else believed in us. I'll be forever grateful to him for doing that.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that one of the things I've changed my mind on in this whole AI hype cycle, I think when you're in the middle of these cycles and you see all these things getting funded, all these competitors pop up, you get a lot of noise and a lot of, oh, should we do these things? Should we listen too much to what the market says? Someone is doing this over here. And I really, I think I just really learned the lesson again, although I think we've stayed the course really well, to never do things out of guilt of other people doing it or like looking too much at competitors or what the broader kind of air landscape is doing, like listen to the customer. They're the ones who pay your bills and ultimately they're the one that you need to make happy. I had a period where maybe over index a little bit too much on like what other companies are doing as like the AI space in general, like what's happening there as like the most valuable signal as opposed to the customer. So maybe more like a relearning of a fundamental lesson and building startups.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I did a degree in kind of split computer science and business at university. And I really kicked myself in not just taking a STEM degree, like a pure CS degree. Studying business, controversial opinion is like mostly useless. There have been like 10 ideas in business. And if you learn those, you'll be pretty well covered. I should just do like a pure CS degree or pure math or engineering, something like”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Truly believe that those companies are subconscious and the more food and diverse things you put into your brain, the better you get at making analogies and pattern matching and those kind of things.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am a generalist in the pure sense of the word. And when I was younger, I wanted to be an artist, wanted to be like a great computer programmer, developer. And I just never really excelled at any of them. I still have a dream of making the music improve one day. But I think what I'm really good at, I know a lot of things about lots of very random things. I'm just extremely curious. I'm not like an expert in anything specific, but I have a very, very wide range of interests. And I think like my neural network has been trained on like so many random things like how elevators work through black metal in Norway to like how people make techno, like all these kind of different things. And I kind of used to be a bit annoyed at myself. Like, why can't you just sit down and become like, you know, the world's best music producer or like the world's best programmer, AI research or something like that. I think now I've realized that my power is actually the fact that I'm like decent at like a lot of things. I think especially in my role, right? What you do is you make decisions and you get ideas and you can't force those things. I think I really.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Couldn't do it, right? You would have to actually build a business and run a business. Here you can play rollercoaster tycoon. And of course, roller coaster tycoon is not like running a real theme park, even if it's just like 20% of being the sea of a real theme park, right? I think that teaches you a lot. And so I think the decision making and kind of sense of strategy you build from that is, I think is highly valuable because it's a two-way feedback mechanism, right? You can sit down and read books about things. But I think what's powerful about computer games is that there's this like kind of constant feedback loop.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's exactly what I did with World of Warcraft. No, actually, what I think it is that we were probably the first generation that really had access to like, especially a bit more complex strategy games, basically what you learn throughout life is decision making to some extent, right? And computer games is a microcosm of the universe, right? And you can run so many simulations and it may not look like it for parents if you're playing like Warcraft 3 or Red Alert or whatever game that you're playing, World of Warcraft that you're playing back then. But actually what you're doing is you're training yourself to make a lot of decisions really rapidly and to understand what the implications of each decision that you make are in some kind of game that you're playing. But life is a game. Careers is a game. Building companies is a game to some extent, right? And I think we're just the first generation where you actually can sit by yourself and get so many iterations in that would have otherwise been impossible. Like you can't sit down before the computer era and simulate lots of small decisions and how to run a business.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Keep the reliefs for entrepreneurs, for people who create things, maybe even make them better, because that's very attractive. I think there's also a whole bunch of things that you could do in terms of subsidizing GPU costs, for example, that would incentivize for UK data centers. That would be interesting, right? That's an actual competitive advantage. Obviously, don't over-regulate. We haven't seen much regulation yet. The census that there's a little bit of a wipe shift from the last administration to this one in terms of regulation don't look at Europe as an example, right? Europe has all the AI regulation and none of the AI companies. Staying the cores to some extent and not screwing it up, I think it's really important.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, but it's a joke. I mean, the London Stock Exchange, they need to fix that. They need to put some liquidity in the system. I don't know. I'm not a financier. So I don't know what they need to fix it. But I mean, that is a disaster, right? And I think.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Screwed up. We just need one or two companies to become plus $10 billion companies headquartered in the UK. Then I think we'll really start to see the ecosystem grow.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, I agree. I totally agree on that. And I think that comes a bit back to the brand problem because I actually do think that as much as we have a lot of people here who want to leave to the US, one of my learnings has been that actually a lot of people want to come to London as well, especially from the US. In our journey, I've seen that it's actually easier to move people from the valley to London than from the valley to New York, which feels kind of counterintuitive. But a lot of people want to come and experience the European lifestyle, right? They like the cultural heritage. They like the fact that London is a cultural melting pot. All the things I also love about London on a personal level, right? If you worked a bit more on the brand, I just think you could attract a lot of great people to also come here and build. But of course, it starts with the fundamentals, right? Now, if you look at California versus London in terms of like taxation and things like that, I'm not sure you can say that there's like a massive difference, right? California is also like super high tax. It's very high taxes and pretty rough. So I wouldn't overindex on that. But I think definitely a case of like double down, right? There's a lot of good things happening in the UK. And I think if we don't.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The obvious things like corporate tax, entrepreneurs relief, like all those things make it really attractive to build hair because we are in stark contrast to Europe, which is in many places a terrible. I think it's different because you're from here. You're British, right? I'm from Denmark. And I think we always like with wherever we're from, we're much more negative. I moved here and I've seen a lot of the positives around it. But I think don't screw up the fundamentals, right? Don't raise the taxes too much. Make sure we still have great relief scheme to people who create jobs, create economic productivity and those sort of things. On the brand problem, that of course starts with the fundamentals like crimes on the rise, living costs, all those things that I think you've also been very vocal about. Those are big, but those are big problems, right?”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we disagree on this, but I actually think the UK is a pretty good place to build in general. I come from Denmark, right? That would have been a terrible place to build a contract. That would have been impossible, basically. I think with SEIS, EIS, entrepreneurs, I think there's a lot of like good things that have happened in the ecosystem. You have all the talent. I think the venture ecosystem has gotten better, even though it's still very Pcentric. I still think it has gotten better. There's also still a lot of ways to screw it up, right? And I see a lot of people who are leaving, especially after the recent administration.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They screw it up. I think they were screwed up by like overtaxation, like all the kind of usual things that I think everyone is talking about, right? I think what they can do to make it better, I think the UK has a brand problem.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be interesting to see what the new government is going to do, right? I think they have a lot of great cards on their hand. Like we have a lot of great companies that are actually building here. And I think what's important or what we're seeing in the London ecosystem is that we're actually building global leaders, not just like regional winners of expense management or something like that. Like we have 11 labs who are leading in voice. You have us, which is leading in enterprise AI video. We have WAVE, which is definitely like doing self-drive. We have a lot of like great companies that actually become global leaders. I think it's really important that the incoming government doesn't screw this up because it's a massive”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Honestly, I don't really have a strong sense that people work way harder in the valley. I know a couple of great friends who've moved over there and opened offices. I have not heard from any of them that like, wow, people just work so insanely hard there. There's probably like a percentage of people there that work like really, really hard. But I think we have those people here as well. I think that's more like a personality trait that's dispersed all across the world. But I don't think if you take an average software engineer in the valley, that they work harder than we do in Europe.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am seeing that ads do change a little bit. It's going to take a long time to change because the way, no matter what I tell people who work at Tenthesia, no matter how much they can kind of read the news and see all the stuff, what people care about is like, do they know someone? Do they have a cousin who made $2 million of being early in a startup? In the US, especially in the valley, everybody knows someone who made $2 million of working in the startup. And they know several of them. That makes you feel like you can do it as well, right? Here it's very kind of abstract, like, oh, yeah, people, these companies made. But before we really see that, and that just requires a bigger ecosystem with more exits, more big companies and so on, I think we'll get there. It'll take a long time. But what I think you get in Europe is you get more loyalty in the sense that people care a lot about working a place that they like working, working interesting problems, having great colleagues. And I think that's a pro that's like less spoken about.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One big one, which is talent, kind of goes both ways in some sense. But if you look at the ecosystem in the valley, one thing is kind of like the price of talent, which is just abnormally high, right? But there's also things like loyalty, for example, that I think are less spoken about. I think in the US, you have a lot of people who are very driven and they basically view their careers like building a portfolio of stock options in different companies. And hopefully one of them will kind of explode and they'll be very rich. Which is a rational way of thinking about it and it makes a lot of sense, right? But it also means that it's a more transactional relationship, I think people have with their employer. People are much easier to jump ship, right? You have one or two bad quarters. You may lose a lot of good people because, hey, there's this other cool thing on the blog over here that I'll go to and work at instead. In Europe, I think people, for better and for worse, right? I think people are, they think less like that, right? As you of course know, like stock options in Europe, people still view it as like a random lottery ticket, not really as part of their compensation because no one in Europe knows anyone who got”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I still do think that the chance of success is higher if you're in the US or on the West Coast. I think there's a lot of pros, especially like the last six, seven years, got a lot better to build here. But I do still think that there is a lot of advantage to be in the US. But I think Europe is catching up pretty quickly.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The honest question is because I couldn't get to the US. I mean, I didn't have like an amazing CV before I started in DGN. I couldn't get the US basically you need to get a sponsorship if you want to go to the US, right? I couldn't really get that one started company. Knew a few people here. So just kind of like moved on a whim, actually, and spent a year.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I actually think that most of those roles will have a natural transition to something different, assuming that you're open-minded enough to do it. So visual effects, for example, right? As we talked about before, but like making clips, AI can do a first pass asset, which is maybe better than random, but it's way worse than what you can sit down to yourself, right? But you plus AI can probably be really, really good, right? Because if it's a two-hour episode, you just figures out all the right places that could be interesting and shows you that you can kind of choose yourself. If you have a visual effects artist, probably what it means that you'll just like a software engineer, right? Means that you'll probably be 100 times as efficient. And instead of relying on 20 other people to create a digital clone of me by like modeling my face, you just prompted a control deliver. I think if you're good at that, you'll be even more powerful in this new world. I think we'll have much more content creators than we have today. Just like if you look at pre-internet pre-computers, how many people wrote things? Very few people, right? Like in the nine.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the very technical roles like camera operation, those types of things, they'll probably fade away. And I think a lot of emphasis will be put on creativity, storytelling, being relatable, all those things that makes great content. I think will be more important than ever.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With your camera, you registered in this. I kind of hate to say it, but it could actually be a blockchain where you register the first time a piece of content was created and we then upload content to different social platforms, distribution systems, you check it against that just to see if disinformation, one of the big problems about what people mostly do, right, is that they take a picture from a war five years ago and they say this happened yesterday in whatever country. And if you had a system like this, if I tried to do that, actually what it would do is it would say, well, this picture was uploaded five years ago. So when you're looking at this picture, it'll have a little blog of notice on the kind of community nodes, right? But the automated version of community nodes saying this picture was actually taken by a BBC journalist like seven years ago. A lot of this stuff is hard, but we actually have a lot of pieces of the technology to get there. And I think when we think of like content identity verification, we think of moderation, content creation. I think we are beginning to see the birth of an entirely new content ecosystem that will look very different than what we have today.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Music in it, it'll take it down, or most of the time we'll just put an ad in the middle of it and it'll pay something back to the license holders. Now, what's actually happening here, right, is that you're uploading a piece of content and in, I mean, milliseconds, that piece of content is held up against a database of billions of songs from that little short clip, like a four second clip of a song, it actually identifies milliseconds what song it is. And if it's a copyrighted song, they'll put something in there. So if you imagine that happening as well, you upload a video and I upload a video on my channel with maybe with this interview, right? But I've cut out 10 minutes of it. It'll just say this is actually a piece of, this is a clip from Harry's original podcast, which was released two weeks prior to Victor putting this in the YouTube channel. And if you want to watch the full thing, you can click to it here. So begin to build this chain of content and we can identify where things came from. That does require we have a centralized database, decentralized ideally, right, where you just write every time you make content, no matter if you're making a video on Syndesia or taking a page.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You should evaluate content based on the content itself. And in here, how it was produced certainly is a signal, but it also signaled when was it produced? Who produced it? Are you watching the original version? Are you watching an edited version of it? It's really hard, right? It's not because it's like right around the corner, but you can imagine a world where you can begin to build a chain of like where was content originally created, what happened to it since. Are you watching an edited version? Maybe you're watching a 25 second outtake from Harry's podcast show and you want to watch the full segment, click here. You can trace it back to actually watch the full episode. We can begin to build these kind of things. And the reason I mentioned Shasam is that Shasam exists because this was a commercial problem for essentially YouTube, right? Record companies were telling them, hey, people are uploading videos on YouTube where they're using copyrighted music. We're going to sue you out of existence if you don't fix this problem and pay us some money. I said, what did they do? Well, okay, we have to detect if something is actually copyrighted, right? So when you upload a video to YouTube, as I'm sure you know, we'll scan it and it's copyrighted.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because I think that right now is like, is it real or is it fake? We're in a world where most content that we consume today is to some extent fake, right? Like most pictures on Instagram have been touched up in some way, shape, or form when it leaves the sensor. They already do color corrections and a whole bunch of other things. And so I think this line will just increasingly blur. And I think it'll be less about how you made something and more about the content itself. You could make a video if you're like you talking about something in a couple of years, no one will be able to tell if it's actually real or not. But it won't really matter that much. What matters is that you made it, right? And that whatever you say in that video is something that you actually wanted to say more than how you made it. It's a bit like we don't care if content uses green screen today. We don't care that much if when you go to see a Hollywood film, right? I know that's fiction, but you don't care how it's made. You care if it's a good film or if it's a bad film.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not verified. So if there isn't a fingerprint for the content, if we don't know where it's from, that should be the thing that sticks out, not the kind of verified sign on a celebrity's page. Does that make sense? Yeah, designer”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Imagine you had like a shassam, but for every single piece of content on Internet, you could tell, hey, this picture was originally uploaded five years ago. It was uploaded the first time by Harry, maybe in the future it all said, this was partly made with synthesia. You're watching a DOP version. So this is kind of like AI for translation. Whatever kind of signals we can give around content. If you had that and identity verification and community notes, every time you scroll past a piece of content, you would see if it's verified or not verified today, everything, well, it's changed a bit now, right? But it used to be that only celebrities had like verified accounts. Why was that? Well, that's because a lot of people tried to make an account pretending to be some celebrity. And so as a consumer, when you see that trusted verified sign, that tells you that that's actually the celebrity posting that content, right? I think we should try and flip that around so that everyone and all content is kind of verified if we have the provenance trail of it. We know kind of where it came from, maybe how it was created and some other kind of things around. And that'll give you like a green checkmark on that content. And it should stick out like a sore thumb is something you”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I do think we need some degree of identity verification for some of the big spaces that we use. I think we need to know somewhat where content comes from, who created it, when was it created, how is it created. So I think we need identity verification to some extent. But I also think we need to take that all the way down to kind of like the content level. So if you imagine that you think a printed, you know, Shasam, the app on your phone. Cool.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think with dopamine junkies for everything. That's how we govern our lives most of the time, right? I mean, I totally get the analogy, but is it all the dopamine addiction if you do sports every day? Whatever thing you do that makes you feel good, I think most of the things we do is to try and make ourselves feel good in some way.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Exactly. I did a TED talk like a few months back where I should talk about this. But I should talk about this because I think”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I totally agree. And I think that's the paradox because probably for you and maybe for me, we built algorithms to be productive to our lives. We're kind of starting to find our way into like how do we build a really awesome media ecosystem that is driven by citizens and experts rather than journalists and politicians and where we still have some of the control that you can argue has been good around like the previous generation of media where a few corporations owned the newspapers and there's this like chain of command of like before content goes out the door has been reviewed by like six different people and I think what just always happens in the world is that we invent new things as humans and we learn as we go right and there's definitely some negative consequences i don't think anyone would disagree with that but i think we are finding our way i am actually very optimistic about the future moving into”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I tend to believe that is a moral panic more than anything. Clearly, TikTok is built an amazing product. I don't think it's a brainwashing machine. I don't think it's a propaganda machine”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What TikTok has done really well is because they have this like really great interest graph that know a lot of people who are very interested in specific areas. When you post a piece of content yourself, they basically show that content to like a couple of hundred of people and they quickly send to those 100 people like the content and not like the content, right? And if they don't like the content, you go in the trash. If someone kind of likes a little bit, they'll show to a bit more people and they'll try to figure out what's actually great content. I mean, if you look at TikToks usage, right? I think that's very clearly working really well.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think a lot about this. And I think TikTok is actually a really great product, potentially like a bit of an unpopular opinion. When I look at my TikTok field today, I would say it's 90% highly informative, educational, really great content. It's about music production. It's about the music that I like. It's about politics, about tech. I see your face once in a while. I think it's an amazing feat of interesting people. What TikTok has done really well is that they built the graph based on your interest, not on your kind of social connections. That's a bit of that as well. And I think that model is actually extremely powerful. What I do want to see is a bit more control over your algorithm, right? So today is basically like, I think everyone has this intuitive thing, which is like, if you see content, you don't want to see Morphy swipe really quickly because you know the algorithm will kind of notice that you swipe quickly past that. So you're kind of almost trading the algorithm yourself. I think that's like an awesome way of doing it, but a bit more control maybe we can say like these particular topics just don't show to me. I'm not interested in it. And then I also think.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Definitely AI made content for sure. But I think what's actually more important is what content surfaces, right? Because if you go to YouTube today, I mean, it's like, I don't know what the status, but it's probably like 95% of all videos have like less than 10 views or something. So the content is there. It's a matter of what actually gets surfaced.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But just like we still like to watch people play piano or know that someone, that the artist we're watching is actually like a real person. I think that will carry over to this world as well.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I totally agree with you. I think the very important delineation is when I say that you're just going to need your imagination, that doesn't mean that it doesn't require skill, right? It means that the kind of technical barriers, you don't need to have a camera anymore. You don't need to be necessarily amazing at visual effects. A lot of stuff will be able to be done automatically. But put more emphasis than ever on being a great storyteller, understanding what's important, on asking the right questions, on if you're creating fictional content, combining things that work in the cultural side, guys, but still stands out a little bit enough that it's interesting for people to watch, right? So I think all those things will be more important than ever. What would be less important, well, knowing the right people to distribute your content, having spent like eight years and becoming the world's best visual effects artist because you can get a lot of help with that from AI systems. But the story selling piece is going to remain exactly the same. And also think what we are going to see is that the value of real content is going to be higher than ever because we have a lot of AI generated content and I think that'll be a genre of itself.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think what has happened in very broad strokes is that democratized distribution with the internet. There are no gatekeepers. Anyone can make a website. Everyone can share that content online. That's been really, really powerful. Then we saw to some extent.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People would definitely think this is ATI. I am talking to a computer that knows everything about the world. This is absolutely bad shit, right? And then today we feel like, ah, it's just a stochastic parrot. And I don't know where what's true or what's not true there. I think it'll be very powerful. I don't think it'll have as much of kind of like the cultural moment that ChatGPT created initially. And as I said earlier, I think elements of this that will be like a small group of people who really care deeply about what benchmark does it work against. And it's like slightly better in this area and in this area. And I think that's awesome. But I think for the average business around the world, the current models are already pretty good and can solve a lot of problems.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's going to be incredibly difficult to do anything that can mirror the chatGPT moment when it first came out. As humans, I think we saturate incredibly easy. We often forget how crazy just like TPT3 actually is when you use it, right? So my sense is that when they release something, it'll probably be good and they'll probably be a whole bunch of techniques that will be very excited about all the things you can now do. And maybe I'm wrong and it's just like super intelligent thing. They'll just like self-improve and save the world. But I think it'll come out and it'll be good. It'll be definitely better than the previous things. But I think most people will not like care that much because the bar for someone to really care that much is incredibly high, right? And there's all this talk about is it like ATI is not ATI? And I think all those things are kind of riddled, but like, well, what's the definition of ATI, right? If you took ChatGPT 200 years back in time, right, in England and you showed someone this magical thing you've built, you'd be burned at the stake. If you did it 50 years ago,”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think there will be some concentration for sure in the big companies. But it's kind of interesting because specialized models, right, it's still very technology centric. I think there'll be many, many, many different products that people use in their daily lives to run their businesses. And a lot of those will probably use models that are like an open source thing that's kind of tuned specifically for something and integrate it into an overall platform. And if you think of that as a specialized model, then yeah, I think we'll see a lot of specialized models, but it's very tech industry to talk about models all the time, right? Like I think most people, we will interact with models like we do in ChatGPT or whatever today for sure. But a lot of the things that you won't notice as a consumer when you're just using someone else's platform or product, there'll be a lot of workflows in the background that are also driven by LLMs. You'll definitely see a lot of companies building their own specialized LLMs, right? But I think we should think more about products than models.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We only want to build models if we think we can be the best in the world at it, which in general for us means that it's a narrow domain and that it is directly tied to a bigger workflow. And so we always work backwards from what our customers are trying to do. If we think we can be the best in the world at it and we think there are compounding advantages of building that model, then it's great for us. And what that means very specifically is that for humans presenting to camera, to dialogue driven content, that's what want to be the best in the world”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, we shift some workloads to anthropic. We're also using Gemini actually. I think in general, sense is that it's a lot about pricing. Some models are definitely better at things than others, but we have a lot of workloads that have big workloads moderation, for example, is one of them. So I think pricing is important. And again, like the scaffolded infrastructure around it.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of enterprise video hosting platform, they use us directly. And I think that's where you're going to see a lot of the value being created. There's going to be a few foundational companies that will be very big. They already power us with, you know, of course we use OpenAI, I use Frau Big.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that is so much more than just the models. So, of course, we want to win on the models, and we are going to win on the models. And our specific niche here is humans presenting content, right? Whereas all the other companies, yes, Sara, one way, all these guys are doing amazing AI video things, but they have a much, much kind of wider merit of what they're doing. They're trying to build true foundation model video models. And maybe we'll be customers of those one day. Maybe we'll be partners. The only thing I care about right now is voiceovers and humans presenting to the camera, right? And I think in that niche, and if you take the entire platform as a whole, that's how we win. I think that's something we're going to see the next couple of years, is that the winning companies are going to be the ones that are not overly obsessed about the AI component of their platforms, but who build for a workflow. And I think, you know, as I move into going to 2025, models super important for us, but expanding across the value chain, increasingly the publisher of videos for our customers as well, which means that instead of using YouTube or other.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think this is like classical VC brain. Too much focus on the technologies, right? Like, you know, you speak to a, I think there's big misconception about synthesis that we are like an avatar company. And it's kind of a fair assumption to make because you go to our website, if you like, you know, see about us online or like advertisers is a headline feature for the company, right? It's one of the things that made us where we are today. If you go and talk to our customers, they don't buy us with the avatar model. They buy us for the workflow. Like the way we've taken the entire video value chain, we get an idea, so you make a draft for that video. You don't have to use a camera or a voice of artists, right? Because we have the AI model to that. We give you a great editor like using PowerPoint or Canva. We give you a distribution mechanic with an AI video player that's made to serve multilingual content. This could go on and on, right? You talk to our customers today. The reason we have million dollar plus contracts is not because people are like, oh, I want to make an avatar video. It's because they want to convey a message to someone and they want to do that with the highest efficiency and engagement and in the best workflow, frankly speaking.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So today we are, and that's a decision that we have made. We had a lot of discussion about this in terms of how do you, what's our approach to this problem? And for me, again, comes back to the customers, right? We're an enterprise.”
2025-01-15 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: Why Scaling Laws Will Not Continue | OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai: Who Wins and Why | How Far Will Model Providers Go Into the Application Layer | The End State for Models: Many Specialised or Few Generalised with Victor Riparbelli @ Synthesia · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source