YouSaid · the spoken record

Vincent Deluard

lines on the record: 109
first: 2022-06-23
most recent: 2022-06-23
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Services in rants. So it is spreading. And I think in a couple years, at some point, the energy supply chain component is going to roll over and will be left with actual wage growth. And also the other part to this is a write-down in the value of assets. Yes, I mean, I agree with you. Wages are not keeping pace with general price level, but at the same time, asset prices are deflating by, you know, if you look at the S&P 520% year over year. So the ratio that matters to me, which is the ratio of labor to capital, because I think this is central to restoring Lower inequalities in the US and ensuring the transfer of assets between Boomer and Millennial and Gen Ziers, that ratio is going down fast. Yes, because wages are rising by 6%, 7% nominally and asset prices are falling very rapidly. This is what you want to see.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you can see it already in the composition of the CPI, right? I mean, back last year when we had a whole transitory thing, you could more or less still kind of 70% of these sub-indices are rising by more than 6% year over year. So it's really widespread. It's everywhere. Yes, oil is a big one, but at this point, you know, it's really become a kind of a structural phenomenon. If you look at the rate of change, the second derivative, the momentum of inflation is strongest in the stickiest part of the CPI. You look at the month-month number, which I think what you want to focus right now, because year over here, you really get tells you about as much about now as it did last year, right? So I think the Fed is really looking at month-month number. And yeah, it showed that there is acceleration in wages.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, Cora. And I think that's what it is going to be. I mean, at some point, I'll buy not now. I still think the whole market is very tight. And, I mean, I hope obviously our prices will drop, but I'm not that convinced that they will. But at some point they will. I mean, you have like 30, 40% over your inflation energy price. I mean, we can't keep going like that.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Different from the mainstream is that I do think that over time this is a good thing. This is an adjustment that was needed. But if we take a very long-term perspective on the great inflation of the 2020s, I think it will reset many things in terms of generation, in terms of asset prices, in terms of inequalities, in terms of economic growth. So I kind of see inflation as a bitter medicine and now we have a better taste. But I do think that in 10 years we'll be in a much better place in large part because of the inflation experience today.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Depending on where things are, but 2024, 2025, I'd be very bullish if everything plays out the way I expect. So yeah, so the bear market has begun. I think we are at the end of the beginning, but we are nowhere close to the beginning of the end. Now, one part about my inflation call where I think I am somewhat”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That, yeah, it's going to be a long drawn out process. On a positive note, I think it's a healthy process. And that's what I would stress where we started on the conversation is the view that it's the bitter medicine that we need. Now we feel the bitter taste, but what's happening behind the scenery is that the economy is trying to write itself. It's trying to fix the extremes that we've gone for four years in one direction, you know, low rates, lower inflation, higher profits, higher inequalities. And I think we've reached a breaking point. And we are trying to move in the other direction. As we move in the other direction, we are breaking things. Things are started to break. They will keep breaking, but something better will come out of it. So I would be, you know, I am very bearish now. I think I will be.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very nasty for financial markets and for asset owners. I think one idea that we want to communicate from this interview is the view that this is not over. This is the first leg of a very long process. We have the technical definition of a bear market, but in some ways the we had the easy part. The first 20% is the easy 20%. My view is that there is another 20% leg that will come and that is when the real pain is going to be felt. My guess is that it's going to take place in September, October, although it may be earlier. We'll see how market conditions are. But it's not over. We still have to work through these profit issues. We still have to work through the fact that I don't think the terminal rate is high enough.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wow. Well, first of all, thank you for the kind words. Thank you for also providing a platform for voices such as myself where I feel we've been. Kind of left out for a long time. This was not the popular opinion. It's good that we got a chance to record the calls on inflation. As far as how I feel, I mean, there's a little bit of a Cassandra syndrome. You know, Cassandra was this Troyan princess who could see the fall of Troy but could not do anything about it. So it's obviously mixed feelings kind of Brad Pitt in the big short where I mean, I'm happy that obviously it's always better to be right about Marcus and to be wrong, but the consequences of secular inflation are”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And, you know, Vincent, I don't know anyone on the street, any investor, anyone I talk to whose inflation call was as strong and as early as you. I think you are the ultimate inflationista. So my first question for you is, what does it feel like to have been this right? Are you kind of shocked at how right you've become? And, you know, does it make you happy or does it make you sad because so much pain is going through, you know, are you like if we're in the big short, are you Ryan Gosling where you're in the bathroom being like, I'm Jack to the tits? Or are you more like Brad Pitt where you're like, hey guys, you know, people are going to lose their homes.”
2022-06-23 · Forward Guidance · A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT