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VJ Ponde

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2019-09-30
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2019-09-30
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  1. Scott Aronson actually likens it to the Wright brothers. And it's the perfect example, it's exactly what you said. It's not here, but it's also not here. Because the Wright brothers, there was all these false starts. But then they actually did learn how to fly. You and I just talked about this a couple weeks ago on 16 Minutes. There's always a hybrid phase when you're doing really cutting-edge stuff. Absolutely.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Well, to break down concretely with the implication for people building software, anything that's relying on computing, it means that if that law plays out, the surprise of when people hit that moment of quantum supremacy, intercept, advantage, whatever label we put it, will happen much faster when you think. Nothing happens, and all of a sudden, oh my God, it's there.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. So then let's go back to this idea of quantum supremacy. So, give me your quick take on do you think it's just BS and some hypey thing or is it like a real thing?

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. In the early days, where It's interesting you mention from CPU to GPU because people have talked about also TPUs like Tensor Processor Unit. But then after that acute PPU, a quantum processing unit.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Are you talking about NISC, like noisy intermediate scale quantum? Yes. In layman's terms, is it basically the idea, like how to basically get useful information out of crazy quantum machine?

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. It just can do it better, basically. It can do it better. And just to be clear, this can be very different for very different types of problems in different domains. That number of qubits required to do it is very different across all of them.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Yeah, actually, can we talk about this? Because people get really caught up in it. And I think it's one of the funniest jokes I've heard about the term quantum supremacy. Someone once told me that it's a way for Google to convince management that they're doing good work because it gives the managers like, how do you even do milestones and really cutting-edge work like quantum computing? But the other thing is you've actually coined this concept of a quantum intercept when we wrote about our investment in Brigetti computing. And I've also heard the term quantum inimitability.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. That voice you just heard is A6 and Z bio general partner VJ Ponde, who has a PhD in physics, which is very relevant here, but also early in his lab at Stanford did pioneering work on a distributed computing protein folding project called Folding at Home. And it's pioneering because it really pushed the boundaries of computing and was very early to using GPUs. And by the way, just a quickly define what quantum computing is, simply put, it's a type of computing based on nature's operating system of quantum mechanics. So unlike classical computers, which are limited to human-style binary code, quantum computers can do things that classical computers can't do or can't do fast enough. And this is really important, especially as Moore's law continues to achieve in seemingly impossible feats at some point it really hits its limits. And that's where quantum computers come in. But people have been talking about them for ages, and they also always tend to go right to the saying, oh no, once this happens, all our cryptography will break too. So what's your quick take there?

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. So, in this last segment, we're going to talk about the recent news. And honestly, I wouldn't normally put this in the news because it's really journal article, but enough media headlines covered it that I want us to talk about it, which is this paper apparently Google Claims Quantum Supremacy. But here's the funny part. The paper was accidentally released by some of their collaborators at NASA who put it on their public website. So then it was really quickly taken down. But in that period, a ton of media headlines hit about it. And just to quickly summarize the news. So a group at Google achieved so-called quantum supremacy with a 53 qubit superconducting device and a qubit just for definition is a quantum bit. And they're doing this with a quantum processor called sycamore. And just a quick definition on what generally people may define as quantum supremacy is just very simply put, it's a point.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. The bottom line this is going to be a major new platform, I believe, and we're seeing evidence of it. I think we went through the Trofa disillusionment in VR and we're coming out of it and the rate of improvement is very quick. I get the feeling watching Oculus Connect the way I used to watching the Steve Jobs Apple keynote. Today feels more incremental, frankly, on the mobile phone side. But here there's like sort of genuine big breakthroughs.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Okay, so that's a quick update at the device level and where we are where we're not in the trend. Bottom line up for me, Dixon.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Now, the major kind of game studios and other kinds of software developers don't see it as a big enough platform. At some point, we'll hit that tipping point. There's probably 10 million active users. Needs to be in the billions and tens of billions. But all signs point to this technology really getting rapidly better and Facebook driving the vast majority of it. There are other companies doing cool stuff like Valve is doing some very cool stuff. Microsoft tested the Hollands and AR and things. I think they're kind of betting more on enterprise use cases and AR.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. For example, the Oculus Quest is running on a mobile processor, unlike the Oculus Rift, which you have to physically plug into your PC and has much more GPU power. And so as a result, if you look, you can see less lighting effects, just simpler textures, things like that. And that's because the GPU is running at full speed. And it's a mobile GPU. I mean, it's amazing that they could do this on a mobile GPU. The GPU is doing both inside out positional tracking, which is itself a hard machine learning problem, and it's rendering a full game engine and everything else. And that's just one of many things that are being advanced. And so a big question when you have a new technology is, are you kind of following a linear or a exponential path? And I think we're following an exponential path. We will be soon once we get the developer ecosystem really going. The missing piece right now is enough users that developers can invest.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Wait, so for beta rendering, if I understand correctly, it basically trades off the broader field of view with higher resolution for where your eye is actually focusing and not for focusing on things in the periphery as a way to trade off the available processing power.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. Res and the thing directly in front, and then low res around it. And this is your way of your brain kind of saving compute cycles. And so VR will do something similar where you only render the center.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Just very briefly, it turns out there's a number of ways in which people see in 3D because you have two eyes and your brain puts together the difference in what you see. And VR is able to replicate that very well. If you want to try it, there's an app called Big Screen, which we're investors in, where you can watch 3D movies and you get a much more richer 3D effect than you do in the movie theater because you have true eye separation. But it turns out there's other ways in which your eye sees depth. Not an expert on this, but I'll try. So what your eye expects is that when an object is farther away, the light bends in a certain way. And right now in VR, it doesn't happen that way, right? Because the screen in front of you, it has an infinite focal distance is what the technologists would say. And so one of the things they've now gotten working in the lab is something where you actually can have mini dozens of layers of focal distance in the same headset. I would expect the next device to have what's called foviated rendering, which is basically tracks your fovea, which is where your eye is looking. And render, so it turns out the way you look in real life is when you're looking at something, you see high.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. Yeah, so one of the limits of VR now, like I'm a fan of VR, but like after an hour, there are some things that are not optimal comfort-wise. And so as you chip away at all those things, I think it becomes a much more, first of all, a much more social, I guess one thing about VR. Like right now, they have this cool thing where you can screencast and so people can see on their phone what you're seeing. And that makes it more social, but make it more inclusive, make it more open so people feel like they're still in the room, but they're having the full immersion. I mean, there's two sides of the coin. On the other hand, the whole benefit of ER is the deep immersion. So you want that, but you also want, I think you want to balance. So that's what they're trying to do with like the AR features and just the obvious things. They also announced some more futuristic stuff.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Just a break pass-through down. So, when you're playing like VR game or just in a VR environment, right now to see the physical world, you actually have to take your headset off and then put it back on. And so the significance of that is that when you talk about blending VR and AR, your point that you actually can be immersed in a world and also have virtual world overlaid over the physical world.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Through plus, which is kind of a more advanced version of that, I think kind of signaling that they are thinking very much about kind of AR and VR converging. Really, they're very similar technology where VR is when the real world is fully occluded and AR is when you can see partly the virtually and the real world.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. Yeah, so Oculus made a number of announcements. To me, the TLDR is they continued to advance VR and AR at a very rapid rate. The Oculus Quest, which is their marquee device right now, is really kind of a game changer and I think really has the potential to go mainstream. And they actually said at the event that they are selling them as fast as they can make them. They announced support for the Quest will now run PCVR games, which unlocks a whole bunch of sort of new content. On the technical side, they've gotten full hand tracking working, which means in the future won't need to have the controllers in your hands. And also we'll have a much more granular ability to interact with the virtual world. I think of this in the larger theme as what you're going to see over time is you get rid of the controllers and then you see the headset shrinking and shrinking and eventually just simply be glasses that can do both AR and VR functionality. And this is an important step along the way. They also announced the Oculus Quest has some simple AR functionality where you can see through it's called pass through and they announced a pass.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Healthcare is leaving the building, the bag, and the bottle. So, bottom line it for me. Yeah, I think what Amazon is doing will be what large employers will start to do. I also think that it is sort of a forcing function for people to recognize that this is now a thing, that this will be a category of how care is delivered, certainly at the lower acute ends of the spectrum versus more specialty care and higher need. And startups have plenty of market opportunity left across the service area of healthcare to innovate in similar ways from the bottoms up. Well, thank you guys for joining this segment of 16 minutes. Okay, so for our next segment, I asked A6NC General partner Chris Dixon for his quick take on Facebook's annual developer event, Oculus Connect 6, which just took place this past week, and what it means for VR virtual reality and AR augmented reality. And Dixon, as you go through and just quickly summarize and use, quickly share the broad implication of each.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. I love, by the way, Alex Rampel's line, which is that the game for startups is to get distribution before the incumbent gets innovation, that nails that.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. I have a question, though, just to push back, which is this is all very tech centric. What would the counterpart be to sort of saying the realities of how healthcare really works?

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. So, what you're also pointing out then with the partnering side is that they essentially right now are buying versus building or at least partnering versus building. And that's really interesting because Amazon at Core is a tech company. So why wouldn't they be building this tech themselves? Do you have any thoughts on this whole build versus buy aspect of their moves?

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. And so Well, even something like AWS, Amazon Web Services was something they built internally for their own use that then became something they opened up to a ton of startups. And so what it ended up enabling was this whole new wave of companies being built. So if they do open up these services in the future, who knows what's possible?

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. Following is investment advice or intended for investors. Please be sure to see A6NC.com disclosures for important information. So the first segment of this week's episode is about the news that Amazon just launched something called Amazon Care, which was described as a virtual medical clinic for employees. And what that really is is a combination of telemedicine in targeted in-home follow-ups. And I think it's really significant that it's for employees because previously Amazon joined up with JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway. And the reason they did this is because they're like, we need to move the needle on how expensive healthcare is as employers covering this. Like they have 1.2 million employees combined. So they basically banded forces to like figure out this problem. And Amazon had also acquired pill pack, which is an online pharmacy. And so all these pieces are kind of coming together. And so let me now welcome our ASICs and the experts. ASICs and Z bio partners, Jorge Conde, and Julie Yu.

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. Hi everyone, welcome to the A6 and Z podcast. I am Sonol and I'm here today with the 10th episode of our short form news show Sixteen Minutes where we cover recent headlines the A6 and Z Way. This week we cover multiple topics. Amazon's virtual care, what it means for incumbents and startups, and the future of healthcare. Then we do a quick take on Oculus Connect and where are we with VR and AR. And finally, we discuss the leaked paper slash news that Google may have achieved quantum supremacy. What does it mean? Where are we with quantum computing? But first, please be sure to subscribe to 16 minutes separately in your podcast app. Just search for it there because we will no longer be dropping this show here, at least regularly, that is, in the main A6NZ podcast feed. So go subscribe now. I always include links and relevant references or background that's mentioned in the show notes, and you can find those at a6nz.com slash 16 minutes. And finally, please note that none of those

    2019-09-30 · a16z Podcast · 16 Minutes on the News #10: Amazon Healthcare, Oculus VR/AR, Google Quantum Supremacy? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source