YouSaid · the spoken record

Will Clemente

lines on the record: 51
first: 2021-11-24
most recent: 2021-11-24
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Awesome. Yeah, and then as well, we do a weekly kind of market overview and video version as well. So feel free to check any of that stuff out if you're interested in any market related stuff. And then I'm on Twitter at WClementi III.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks for the plug. Yeah, so I kind of had all the content stuff at Blockware through a little branch we call Blockware Intelligence. So we have A, a newsletter, which I send out to about, I think we just passed 53,000 subscribers. That's like a weekly kind of market overview based on on-chain as well as we have some Bitcoin related equity content. We just hired on Joe Burnett, who is like III Capital on Twitter to do some mining content as well. And then we have a podcast that I interview different people in the space every week. Preston, we got to get you on there maybe sometime.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Before we got on here, me and Delamer chatting for like 20 minutes, and we were just like, this is nuts, man. I can't believe we're about to get on this podcast repression. This is so crazy.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I saw it the next morning. I was like, how did I not see this? And then people started. I retweeted it and then. People are like, oh my gosh, this is hilarious. I think I laughed for a good two or three minutes straight. And it was like the editing was on point too. The lyrics itself were pretty funny, but just like. You had yourself edited in the car. It was hilarious, man.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We have no idea how hard I worked on that. That's what I was going to say. The real funny part of that is just when I was thinking like. He must have put like 45 minutes or an hour into this video. Oh,”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think there's a bit of a misconception here. So the only way it really affects us is in the sense that, and when I say us, it's the people actually doing the heuristics at Glaston. Me and Dylan are really just reading charts. It affects the ability to identify the difference between a multi-sig transaction and a normal transaction, as well as a lightning transaction and a regular transaction. So it doesn't actually affect our ability to analyze a lot of these metrics we're talking about. But in terms of distinguishing between those multi-sig and lightning transaction, it does. So for some of the lightning data, it affects it a bit, but also it's not going to affect things when you're looking at capacity or number of channels or number of nodes and all those consolating metrics”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Listen to my hand. Yeah, there's no way that you kind of have to pick and choose now what you want to listen to and article.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think one other thing is the barrier to entry to understand Bitcoin now is way lower than it was years ago. I mean, we have so many podcasts now. I can't, I mean,”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We look at, but generally when I think of what's the sweet spot for this type of analysis, it's really kind of three to six months out. That's where I think we kind of have the best hit rate. When you backtest some of these things, for example, like the liquid supply shock ratio I mentioned, since 2018, that has about a 91% correlation between price on kind of a week-to-week interval. So these things don't always translate immediately to price because as we mentioned, I look at it as on-chain is kind of this underlying broader kind of behavioral cycle where you have the derivative stuff that's really key and also we talk about like price levels and watching like the order books, all these kinds of things really impact the price on the very short term time frame. So that'd be my answer.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right? It just meant that in a broader sense over the next couple months, as demand steps in, as long as you don't have more supply becoming liquid, then eventually you're going to see the marginal bidder having to bid the price up because there's not as much available circulating supply. Like, for example, like this metric, it seems kind of counterintuitive, but when you see supply becoming illiquid, it doesn't always translate to price action immediately. But when you see supply becoming liquid, it does because if you just think from first principles, what that means is that supply that was previously held by entities who don't sell are now moving their coins usually onto exchanges to be sold versus if you're seeing supply get locked up, that doesn't necessarily mean that the marginal bidder is stepping in aggressively to bid the price up. So, I mean, that's just one example, but I think in general, on-chain analytics, we have some shorter-term metrics.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But you also have this other side of the equation, which is the demand that has to step in. And so oftentimes, you know, there can be these discrepancies or divergences between what happens with the price and what's going on with the supply dynamics. One example would be over the summer. You had through a metric that I created with Willy Wu called illiquid supply shock, which compares the highly liquid in liquid entities. So these are in layman's terms just entities that sell a lot of the coins that they take in. And comparing that to the illiquid entities, so people that take in and hold at least 75% of the coins they take in. So they take in four coins, they hold at least three out of the four. So you had this really strong divergence between the two. And seeing that, you know, it didn't necessarily mean that we were going to see price appreciation within days.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's the fact that it should not be used on the very short term timeframes. I think whenever we have a short-term drawdown, I usually get people mentioning, oh, but that supply shock, though, what happened to that? And it's like, okay, when we're talking about, when we're talking about a supply shop, we're talking about the amount of available supply to be bought is decreasing. And that doesn't necessarily mean that we have the other side of the equation, which is the demand. And so the way I kind of think of this is that we have the fuel kind of”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I don't really think there's too much that we disagree on just because we're texting pretty much every day. So we're pretty much always bouncing ideas off each other. And if there is anything like that, we pretty much kind of like, you know, flatten out that kink whenever it occurs. So yeah, I don't really think there's anything to be honest”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I saw this article earlier today that was sent to me, and I think it was saying like ECB was basically inadvertently blaming crypto for some of the inflation or something like that. And, you know, I was just thinking like, this is just the start of these kind of narratives. As we start to see Bitcoin's monetization really accelerate, you're going to start to see these people that are hanging on to the ship as it's sinking. They're going to come out and say everything under the sun, including, oh, well, these Bitcoin guys, they're the reason why the system is collapsing, right? And that's going to be kind of, I think, the last narrative that we see before the demise of the dollar.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've all seen that it just absolutely goes parabolic, but you're actually looking at the volatility that occurred during time. And it's really aggressive. You saw these massive 50 to 80% whipsaw moves, which is essentially just the collapse of the currency getting reflected in the pricing of that asset, which in that case was gold. I actually tweeted this out to Saylor. Saylor said that he didn't see it playing out that way.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I actually have a question for the two of you. So I'm trying to think of in the next five or ten years, do you see Bitcoin's volatility increase or decrease? And so I tend to think that it decreases because you have just this new kind of market participant here that they're not going to chase the price up. I think you saw that over summer. That's kind of why we had this prolonged, kind of rounded bottom where they had these bids set at the bottom of 30, 32K and they didn't chase the price up to the top of the range. They just slowly waited for price come back down and hit those bids. And you saw that whale accumulation on chain. And then conversely earlier this year, we had these patient sellers that kind of formed this rounded distribution top. And so moving forward, I think there's a really strong case that we see decreased volatility. But conversely, there's this chart, and Dylan, you posted it a couple months ago and Preston, I remember seeing UV tweeted. And the German mark measured in gold, the chart.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think the features ETF is a terrible product for anyone who's looking to invest in Bitcoin long term. Because for anybody who isn't really familiar with futures, and futures isn't my expertise, but essentially what happens is every time it gets to month end, they have to roll the contract to the next month. And so over time, whenever the futures curve is in contango, what's happening is they're selling the current one and buying the next month's contract. And so you're basically taking the hit on the difference between those every time they roll it over each month. And so the only people that are really benefiting from that are the people that are coming in in this kind of market neutral way and buying spot, selling the future, and they can kind of capture the difference between the two because the curve is getting bit out into contango, Preston, I know you love that word contango”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“ETF rejections and kind of taking notes and kind of tweaking his approach for converting grayscale to an ETF, but I guess time will tell with that.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't really think that anyone is surprised by that. And you kind of saw that through the market on kind of intraday reaction to it, where the spot ETF rejection actually kind of marked the intraday bottom on that day because I think I don't think anyone was really surprised or any sophisticated investors at least were surprised by seeing that get rejected. I think that's something that most of the market probably isn't expecting to see for at least another year out or so yeah i mean i'm not really surprised to see that Obviously, we would love to have a spot Bitcoin ETF. And I think you'll see massive inflows to it whenever it is approved. But I don't think it was surprising to see that get declined. I think Barry's definitely up to something. I think Barry's watching.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“FS curve. And so for the long term holder, guys, you know, this stuff might be interesting. You might want to understand what's driving the price action. But at the end of the day, none of it really matters because adoption for Bitcoin is only increasing and you can see that as well in the data.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For Bitcoin is only increasing, and that's only going up and to the right. And we have fluctuations between some of the behaviors we touched on earlier. And then on the very short-term timeframes, we have all the stuff that's generally driven by the derivatives behavior. And so for long-term holders, none of this stuff matters. You just keep buying and that goes to the very broad cyclical behavior that we talk about Bitcoin is that adoption is up into the right. all these different metrics we talk about even just like the number of entities on the network that all this stuff is up and to the right but when you when you look zoom in on these shorter term time frames that you know that's that's what's really driving a lot of this stuff i've seen a couple of these kind of like poster or memes on twitter where it's it's showing you like this is bitcoin you know zoomed in and it's like really choppy this is bitcoin zoomed in a year out and it's like kind of it's kind of cyclical and then this is bitcoin on a 50 year time horizon right and then you just see like this”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you take the portion of supply held by entities with less than 10 BTC. Over time, that's only increasing. And so you have this, that's talking about a whole nother discussion about the supply distribution, and we can talk later about that. That's a bunch of nonsense about people saying like a certain, you know, a bunch of Bitcoin is held by a small portion of people. But over time, you have this hardcore base of people that are just stacking Bitcoin no matter what. And so you have that paired with kind of the long and short-term holder behavior that we talked about. And that's kind of Bitcoin's longer-term cyclical behavior that you kind of see as kind of outlines the behavior of Bitcoin's price action. And then meanwhile, on the short-term timeframes, you have all these apes that are coming in on leverage and driving the price in, right? It's like we're on this rocket ship and then you have these apes coming in and we have to shake off the apes through the liquidations. And so that's kind of like the mental framework I have for it is that at the end of the day, adoption.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you make this decision to leverage and take a directional bet and think that you have some kind of edge in the market and that you can outsmart the market, well, you're going to be held accountable for that no matter which way that resolves. I think that's a beautiful thing. And so you have all this stuff going on in the derivatives market. And the way I kind of view it is like the Ray Dalio like long-term debt cycle thing. You know, like the visual he has where it's you have this long term kind of thing that kind of moves up into the right, it fluctuates, but then you have these short-term cycles that kind of move around the major long-term thing. And so like I think, first of all, you have this real hardcore base of hodlers that are in this asset. You can see that non-chain data. If you look at the entities with 0.1 to 1 BTC, their holdings are literally up and to the right, no matter what. They uptick a little more in the bull markets, but even in the Bayer, they don't even budge. They just go up and to the right.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're buying your long liquidation You know, I think this kind of is a bit more philosophical, but I think the long liquidations are kind of a beautiful thing because it kind of reinforces this concept that we now have in this kind of free and open market that you have personal responsibility.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nobody gets bailed out. This is another thing, too. It's like if you get liquidated, no one's coming to save you, right? In fact, the people.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of capitulation leg down to 30k. I remember looking at my phone and seeing that funding was rising and I was like, oh God, like this is not good because price was just absolutely nuking and everyone was trying to catch a falling knife. And usually the way it goes is that you have to see these guys completely.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To kind of get a good picture on what's perhaps going to occur. And then last thing would just be going back to what we touched on with the convexity or the higher likelihood of stablecoin USD contracts being squeezed. You can look at are the contracts that are being opened coin or stable margin. So ideal scenario for the bears would be prices grinding down. And meanwhile, you have a bunch of coin margined open interest and funding is mooning. That's like, okay, you have all these perpetrators that are leverage longing to dip, trying to catch a falling knife. Meanwhile, the spot market is just fading. And this is what happened also on that move down in May. I remember when we moved out, when we had massive flush to 30K, the night before, and I'm not saying I called the initial move down, but I remember the night before we had that last.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so if you're seeing price continue to grind down while the perpetual swap funding is increasing, that means that essentially the spot market is driving price down and perpetrators are leverage longing the dip. So whenever you see these dislocations, that's when you tend to see these things get resolved in the direction of price. And then you can also look at that with a bit more granularity in terms of specific exchanges. So like a kind of rule of thumb is like whenever Bybit is doing something, that generally gets faded because by bit's like a primarily like retail driven exchange. So one example, going back to that short squeeze from the end of summer, you saw Bybit was fading the rally really aggressively. I forget it was like 70 or 80% negative 70 or 80% APR. And then meanwhile, you had like FTX and Darabit, which tends to be where smarter capital is. They had positive funding. So you can look at these dislocations as well.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Drove up at, I think it was like the first week of August or something like this. What happened was as price was grinding up. Meanwhile, you had funding coming driving down. So essentially what that was saying is that the spot market was buying and perps were so used to fading every single rally. They were raking in money fading every rally for the last three months. They're like, okay, this is like the last three fake out rallies that we've had. And so they were just fading it. They got squeezed. That's one way that it can have a signal. The other way would be the complete opposite. So instead, if you see funding increasing while prices decreasing. So what that means is that traders are essentially leverage longing the day.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everyone's like, oh, this is a new paradigm funding can just be positive forever. Obviously, that wasn't the case. When you look on the kind of the intraday timeframes, where this really is actionable is when there's a dislocation between the direction of funding and the direction of price. So an example would be if you start to see this actually happen, and not to show myself, but I posted about this, like when we came off of the summer lows. Remember we had this really big short squeeze and price drove up to like 48K on Binance. Yeah, we came off. Yeah.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Perps or shorting, but can also mean, let's say you had this big leverage cascade, right? And you get a bunch of longs that are liquidated. Well, by definition, that's going to drive the per price lower than the spot price. So there's a bit of nuance there. But generally, whenever you have prolonged Thai funding, that means that traders have been greedy for a while in the market. Where this really has signal and where this is really actionable because we had high funding earlier this year for months for like two or three months we had to get we had to get reset like one time”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You can look for these dislocations between the derivatives market and price, and then as well as you can look at order books are another thing and then just straight up price level. Some people live and die by just looking at price levels and they just look at price action. Where funding really comes into play is, as Dylan mentioned, it's the peg for perps to the spot index price, which is essentially just this weighted average of all the major spot exchanges weighted by their volume. And so whenever funding is positive, what it means is that the perpetual contract is trading above the average spot price. And so usually what that means is that perpetrators are more aggressive relative to spot. It can also mean that the spot price is trading off stronger than perps. And then conversely, like if you have negative funding, it can mean A, that spot is buying.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Almost half of what it was earlier this year. And so to also touch on what you've mentioned a second ago, on the short-term timeframes, price is very much driven by A, the derivatives, and then B, price levels. So if I'm analyzing the market and I don't day trade and Dylan doesn't either. But when we're kind of trying to understand what's going on in the market because we both have like market intelligence newsletters and we kind of need to understand like what's going on.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Likely to be squeezed to the upside. And the reasoning is because if you're short with Bitcoin as collateral and let's say the market starts going against you, not only is your P&L decreasing because you're short, but you also don't have this inadvertent hedge that you do when you're margin with Bitcoin. Because if you are in a short and then starts going against you, well, yeah, your P&L is going against you, but your collateral is increasing in value. So when you see a larger portion of the market being collateralized with stables or USD versus crypto, that puts us in a more healthy state. It means that A, we're less likely to have this convexity to the downside and B, shorts are more likely to be squeezed. And so currently the percentage of total futures open interest that's margined with crypto is down from like 70% in April. Now it's down to like, I think the mid 40s still. And maybe you could correct me if I'm wrong, something like that. But what's almost.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think what Dylan just touched on is really important to understand. One of the more bullish kind of setups for Bitcoin is the percentage of futures contracts that are currently margined with crypto, which I know that our people don't like that word, but crypto versus USD or stablecoins. And the reason is what Dylan just alluded to was the convexity that these contracts have. So essentially, if you're longing Bitcoin with Bitcoin as collateral, that's awesome when the market's going up because not only is your P&L decreasing, but your collateral is increasing in value as well. Well, as soon as the market starts to turn against you, it goes the complete opposite direction because not only is your P&L decreasing, but your collateral is also decreasing in value. So you're even more likely to get stopped out or liquidated or freak out and sell for that matter. And then conversely, when more of the market is margin with stable coins or USD, those contracts are more”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so it's 155 days. And so the reasoning is, as Dylan kind of touched on, what you see is that as a coin is held in a wallet, the longer it's held in a wallet, the less likely it is to be spent. And then Glass Notes kind of run some statistical studies to look and say, okay, where's that cutoff that the likelihood of them spending those coins really cuts off the most? And that's right at 155 days, which is also five months. So I know for a lot of the hardcore Bitcoin Maxis are going to be like five months. These guys are wimps. That's nothing. But it's just when you kind of backtest the behavior, that's where you see the likelihood of those coins being spent cuts off the most.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Line in the sand for investors through when you look at transactional activity and on chain volume, you see that's kind of aligned in the sand there. So there's some confluence there. But in bull markets, what you see is that price tends to bounce off of short-term holder realized price, which is another interesting variant of that. But yeah, that was an awesome metric created by Dylan that takes two of those concepts, realized price, which is the on-chain cost basis or average cost basis of investors on-chain with that kind of cyclical behavior that you see between those short and long-term holders.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Come in and step in and kind of set that floor into the bear market. And so you see this natural dynamic where If you look at the two of the charts, they go the complete opposite directions Converge and then they disperse into the bull market. And so Dylan took that a step further By looking at their cost basis and then the behavior of the two of those. And there is a lot of signal in that. Short-term holder cost basis itself is actually another really interesting metric. Short term holder realized price has been a really interesting Level that Bitcoin prices historically. reacted with. Right now, that's at $53,000, which is interestingly. right around that kind of trillion dollar market cap.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then they scale out into the major bowl rallies that we have. So they buy into weakness or scale into weakness And they scale out into strength. And so you see this natural dynamic where. Into the bear, all the short term guys leave, all the speculators get out of the market. They age into long term holders if they stay on, if they stay in the market, right? And so. Over time, obviously, you have more and more people that come in because number go up is basically. Best form of marketing for Bitcoin. So you have Over time, more short term holders come in the bear market, become long term holders into the bear. They come into the bull market Turn into long term holders into the bear. But you also see the long term guys as Dylan touched on.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because in bear markets, whenever the market cap goes below realized cap, By definition, the market's in capitulation, right? It's below the average cost basis of all the investors in the market. And so then what Dylan said, like what Dylan did like he said. Take this a step further and then using glass notes heuristics of the short term and long term holders Comparing the two. And then, if you actually run the ratio between the two of those as well, you get an interesting cyclical oscillator. But one other thing that Dylan didn't hit on that I think is important to understand is that there's this natural dynamic between short-term and long-term holders. And so, what you see is that. Long term guys scale into the bear market Don't perfectly time the bottom. So they don't bottom tick perfectly, but they scale into the bottom of the bear.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so now that in market cap terms, that takes up whatever 6.1 or whatever Bitcoin's at 6.2 billion dollar chunk of market cap. But if he hasn't moved those coins in realized cap, he's still only adding $100,000 to that. So it's essentially you're looking at Amount of value that is stored in Bitcoin, or in other words, for people who are familiar with like technical analysis, you're looking at an on-chain VWAP, so a volume weighted average price of Bitcoin. And this was originally conceptualized by Pierre Richard and then Nick Carter actually created the metric. And so Pierre Richard came up with the idea way back in like Bitcoin's early days. Nick Carter actually presented it, created the metric at a conference. And so that was, we realized Cap was born. Realize cap itself is useful aside from looking at it in more granularity.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Could just back up for a second. So, like realized cap is essentially the market capitalization of Bitcoin based off of when a coin was last moved. So the way to think of this is like Roger Vaire, who bought Bitcoin, whatever at like a dollar, right? Let's say he bought $100,000 of Bitcoin at $1. And he hasn't moved those coins whatsoever. That's now. Moved him in 2017.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then from there, you know, it was just, I was like, okay, well, this is how you reach out to people. I just started adding tagging people and everything whenever I have questions now, like I just reach out to fund managers or different, you know, reach out to like Lyn Alden if I have a question about macro or different crypto fund managers about some of their opinion on the market over the next couple months. And it's just like people are the biggest alpha, not just in markets, but just in understanding things in general”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Appreciate it. And I didn't really think anyone was going to respond, but then you retweeted it. Oh my God, Preston retweeted my article. I was like, freaking out.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You talk about like masterminds. These groups that I'm in are essentially that, where it's like all these people that are specialized in this one thing and we're all kind of putting our heads together to come to the best conclusion. It's like 15 or 20 of us different fund managers are just independent on-chain researchers and we kind of all are just like bouncing ideas off of each other. And I think people more than anything, I mean, books are amazing and books can help you understand a lot of things. bouncing ideas off of people and just asking questions i've learned so much through that just early on just reaching out i mean that's how that's how i got originally noticed by you was i tweeted out to you i put out this article when i had like 300 followers and i it was like bitcoin's role in the financial system and i tagged you i tagged dylan actually”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Without that platform that I have now, I mean, there's no way I would be able to get some of these insights. And yeah, like that to me has been the coolest thing is ask, you know, when we're talking about just being able to learn, asking questions is huge. That's been my biggest asset is over the last couple months I've kind of evolved my learning just from like a pure market standpoint. Like I did not at all predict the May crash. I got into on-chain analytics like a couple weeks before that. It's complete noob. Over the summer, I got really kind of upset at myself because I missed that whole move, really kind of grinded out my understanding of all that stuff. And through that, I really kind of built a community, if you will, of different people that were interested in it through Telegram, also in just in DMs. But now I'm in some of these Telegram groups. And like, I remember early on you talked about the book, The Seven Habits of Highly Successful People.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I put out an opinion, and people say, well, you're not looking at this, this, or this. Or with this metric, which you also need to consider is that this might be skewing the data. And so sometimes just putting out an idea or kind of framing something in an open-ended way is the best way to learn. Like I posted something last week and I said, do you think over time Bitcoin's volatility increases or decreases? And I got freaking Sailor commenting on it and giving me his opinion.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of all just being able to reach out to people and ask questions. First benefit of that. I'm grateful to be in a position now I can just reach out to pretty much anybody on Twitter and they'll most likely respond because they get the notification now just because I have large follower base or I can tweet at somebody. But yeah, just in terms of like posting things and the feedback, like I can put out a chart or a metric or an opinion on something and I have hundreds or thousands of people that are criticizing it, sometimes not in the nicest or most respectful way. But I think part of it is being able to kind of pull the maybe disrespect or like rudeness out of a comment and being able to say, okay, well, maybe they didn't deliver this in the best way, but what they're actually saying has some merit to it. Or, you know, aside from the bad apples, just in general, you get people that will give you their feedback, right? I'll post a lot of the stuff I'm posting is like market related content to Bitcoin. And so”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To add on to that, I think too, like, I mean, Dylan and I'm platforms which have grown more than I think either of us could have ever imagined.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. At first, I came into it that way. I got zero to one by Peter Thiel, all these books, like you recommended early on. Yeah, I mean, aside from you specifically, just in general, I think the internet has a huge part to do with it. I've learned way more on the internet. I'm sure Dylan agrees than I probably would have otherwise. I learned much more through podcasts and YouTube than I did in all my school combined. I wasn't always great in school, but it's funny. you find something you're interested in and you know you kind of go down the rabbit hole and lead yourself through that Yeah, I mean, I think like we have more content than ever before. And it's like if you're interested in something, there's no excuse aside from maybe like becoming an engineer or something in medicine for you not to be able to teach it to yourself. And so especially with finance, I mean, there's all kinds of content out there for you to consume now.”
2021-11-24 · We Study Billionaires · BTC053: Bitcoin Derivatives & On-Chain Data with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT