YouSaid · the spoken record

Ziad Daoud

lines on the record: 39
first: 2026-04-13
most recent: 2026-04-13
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“That happened in 1990. So, yeah, it will, yeah, it may not be the same lesson everywhere else, but I think the lessons will be deep and broad and they'll go to unexpected corners, including architecture tracing.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Relative to its neighbours, it was fairly advanced. You know, it had culture, it was an open society, it had a participatory political system. At times a parliament that was quite loud and vocal. Infrastructure was modern and all of a sudden Iraqi tanks rolling. There was an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and things changed in Kuwait. And the big thing that happened there is that they started investing less at home and sending most of their wealth abroad. And over decades, that means deteriorated infrastructure. If you think about Kuwait, there's a couple of news items recently that Kuwait might have power cuts, which for an oil powerhouse, one of the most richest countries in the region, in one of the hottest countries in the world, to have power cuts is strange. But you can trace what is happening there in terms of the electricity shortages in Kuwait in 2026 to an event”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some people did, some people did. And it's also, I don't know if it's safe to be next to cars So they might be rethinking about this. They might be rethinking, you know, this is what wars do. They change a lot of things in a lot of perspectives on things. And that goes into corners that we didn't think about before, including architecture. I always think the example of Kuwait is a clear one. Kuwait in 1990 or before 1990.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, this is what I think also the war would hit like unexpected corners beyond defense and relationship with the US and the Strait of Hormuz. It's also architecture. There's a lot of building that's taking place in all these cities in the Gulf are growing. The problem is that when you were in Dubai, you know, living on the 20th floor and you get the alert saying it's under attack, stay away, don't go out and stay away from windows. Your place is floor to ceiling of windows.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Does that mean? I don't know if it's going to emerge as a power, but given that, you know, that it's punching above his weight, given that it's controlling the Strait of Hormuz, given that it actually has discovered that the way to pressure the US and Israel is by imposing costs on the global economy via attacking the Gulf, that's not a safe world that the Gulf want to be in. And I think for the Gulf, they're thinking now about, you know, given that. Because even if this current system in Iran does not survive and we have a new system, they've learned the same lesson, which is basically if you get attacked, if you're cornered, this is how you get out of it, by closing the straight of hormones and by attacking the Gulf. For the Gulf, that's a challenge, and that's a challenge that they need to address and think about because they haven't faced that sort of threat before.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Israel had that clear goal, but it probably wasn't achievable, which is regime change in Iran, and the US is just confusing what they're doing in terms of this war. Like, there's no clear, well-articulated goal for this current war. And I think that's why Iran is punching above its weight.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a couple of things to mention here. The first thing is as far as Iran is concerned, I think this past six weeks have taught us something, and I keep saying things taught us something. We keep learning from what is happening now. And that's basically if you have clear and achievable goals. You can punch above your weight. Iran had just basically two simple goals because they were completely cornered, which is basically survival of the system and deterrence so that they don't get attacked again in a few months. And they thought they could achieve this. So it's very, very clear goals, very existential. They thought they could achieve this by imposing costs on the neighbors by hitting the gulf, on the global economy, by hitting the gulf and closing the strait of hormones and hitting energy facilities.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More on defense, and if your income is lower, that necessarily means that what you send to the world in terms of capital exports will come down. And that is important. That is important not just for English football clubs and, I don't know, real estate in London or in Egypt or Turkish bank deposits or tech companies. Do you guys hosted my colleagues Tom Olick and Jamie Rush on the book that Economics wrote on the price of money? We had a chapter on that, on petrodollars and how petrodollars actually suppressed long-term interest rates in the US. Okay, it was 25 basis points, but given the size of the US economy and the size of his debt, that still.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In terms of direction of capital, I think the answer for me is fairly clear the direction is going to go down and it's going to go down because you haven't the interruptions to oil exports because that source of capital is that you export oil and gas, you get the income, you spend some of it domestically, and then the surplus you invest abroad. I think the second thing, the defense spending will go up. One, because they need to replenish on the defense systems that they've been using over the past six weeks. And second, because they've realizing that the world is far more dangerous than it was six weeks ago. Iran is more dangerous. Israel's more expansionist. And then you have these non-state actors, Iraqi militant groups, Houthis in Yemen. I think this conflict would probably create new groups that we haven't heard about before, and they are a threat. So I think they'll be spending more on defense. And if you spend...”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In terms of the direction of capital, and you're right. I think the way I think about the Gulf is that the Gulf gives supplies the world with three inputs. It supplies it with energy, supplies it with capital, and supplies it with trade routes, and all three are being hit by the current war. And it gets from the world three prices. It gets the price of interest rates because they have pecs to the dollar. It gets the price of the dollar exchange rate, and it gets the price of oil. It doesn't determine the price of oil that comes from the global economy.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A few things. I think society is not making more money than ever, it's just making more money than one aura is at $65 per barrel.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Every company where we are in Dubai, for example, we're in the Dubai International Financial Center, and that has grown significantly since the pandemic. They're doing a new expansion and offices are full. And even our Bloomberg office, we expanded into a new floor in Dubai.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On your questions, Tracy, I think it depends on the duration of war. If the war ends tomorrow, or if even it continues at a lower intensity where you have some ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, where the attacks on Dubai ease a bit and the UAE in general and the Gulf in general, that is very different world from if the world continues until, I don't know, June or July or August for six months. So I think the economic impact depends on the duration of war. And that is a big uncertain aspect. On your question, Joe, who's moving to Dubai? A lot of hedge funds and as a managers are actually moving to the UAE a lot. So, you know, the people that move are there. And then you have the sort of the supporting environment that supports these companies.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, that might slow a bit, but probably not significant. I think the other thing with Dubai is I know the swar is different because it's hitting it directly, but it did benefit from previous wars. Money did tend to move to Dubai as a result of conflicts, whether it's in the Middle East or even in the case, for example, of Russia, Ukraine, where we saw a lot of money going into Dubai. We saw the pandemic was beneficial to Dubai, a lot of Brits moved to Dubai as a result of that.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They thought, oh, you know what? The weather is good. Taxes are really, really zero. And, you know, life is nice and you get all the support that's on the extra and things are convenient. And then people had a network of friends that are already there and they're willing to move there and live there. So I think that's the element of it. I think, yeah, so I think in terms of the long term aspect of it, I think people who live there are probably going to prove stickier than we think. The attraction of new people is probably going to ease on the margin. But again, there was a whole long queue of people who wanted to move there and probably.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think where there will be probably challenge is that the questions I've been getting about how can I move to Dubai and how can I get there? They might become fewer as this word develops, and it depends on how long this war lasts. I think there's something else that happened in Dubai why it's attractiveness increased after the pandemic, is that you have the network effect. People have their friends moved to Dubai.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think what it offers you, and this is why I think there's two sides to this. I think there are people who live there. I haven't heard a single person saying I want to move out of the way permanently as a result of this war. Some people have relocated temporarily. I think some people on the margin might decide to leave, but I haven't heard that yet. And I think what it offers you is obviously like incredible safety. It's well connected. The weather is good six months of the year. And obviously for a lot of people, taxes is just like zero taxes is appealing. And if you're on the right, I wouldn't say right extreme of the income distribution, but if you're on the right half of the income distribution, it's actually a nice life. So, I think people who live there, I think they're going to.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, let me just tell you something about Dubai attractiveness. Every time I came to London. Obviously, our Bloomberg offices in the city, and I saw old friends seriously, every time people ask me, how can we move to the Middle East and how can we move to Dubai? And these people have no links to the Middle East. That's incredible. I think it's, and let me just give you another example, actually. In late 2024, I took a sabbatical from Loomberg and I was teaching at Harvard.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Other nations don't have that sort of geographical dividend. If you're Kuwait, if you're Bahrain, if you're Qatar, you have to do it through other countries. Qatar has only one land border, which is Saudi Arabia. So if they want to have an alternative to having Restellerson LNG tanker or other tankers, then have to do a pipeline, and the pipeline will probably go through Saudi Arabia. I'm not an expert enough. I don't know if they could go an underground pipeline to Iran or all the way, I don't know, to Kuwait via Iraq, but I think the most feasible thing is via Saudi Arabia. That going to happen, I don't know. Let's see. I don't know. I'm 50 50 on that.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Calculation that tells his Audi's probably making more income out of its oil exports despite what is going on in the region. Obviously, there are threats that this pipeline could be attacked and the port in the Red Sea could be attacked. But as things stand, it's probably making more money now than it did before the war. If you're Saudi, if you're the UAE and you have these alternative routes to Hormuz, it's probably one of the better investments that you've made over the past few decades and it's paying off now. You know, geography is kind to you because you could do this unilaterally. You can just have a pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fajaira. You don't need to go through other countries. You can have a pipeline from the East Saudi Arabia to the west of Saudi Arabia. It doesn't have to go through other countries.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. So I think, for example, I think now Saudi Arabia is probably making more money out of all exports. Compared to the pre-war period simply because they have that pipeline that goes from the east of the country to the Red Sea. If you think about it, just simple maths. You know, Saudi Arabia exports 30% less now, but oil prices are up by a lot more. So if you take sort of that back of the envelope.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This war has exposed something, a couple of things that are very important. First, that the Middle East despite the rise of renewables, despite the rise of shale oil in the US, despite the rise of alternative sources of energy, the Middle East is still super important for global energy supplies. And the second thing, most of the energy that comes from the Dries goes through this small choke point that's called the Strait of Hormus, which exposes the world because it can cause supply, but also it's important for these countries to get their oil out and gas out and get their money in so they can sustain their economies and investments and so on. Now, I think this war has taught us a third thing. If you have a route out of the Strait of Hormuz, you're probably insulated and you are in a better position than otherwise.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And a political system that remains calm and stable in the face of a volatile region. And what you want to do is to make sure that you maintain that calm. You have a source of income that maintains that calm and that cohesiveness when oil becomes worthless in the future versus now. And this is why you have this big push towards diversification. But I think the fact, yeah, the level of wealth versus the size of the population creates different dynamics and trade-offs versus other bigger countries in the region.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or other places, yes. That's exactly right. That's the unique thing about the Gulf is the level of wealth. And I think that's another motivation For why they want to diversify away from oil. If in the future, because oil again has not just created an economy and petrodollars and sovereign wealth funds and reinvestments into the global economy, it has created a political economy, a social economy.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the Gulf, though, is sort of different to other states. And the unique thing about the Gulf from the rest of the Middle East, which is why they were insulated from the volatility in the region, is that for the most part, maybe with the exception of Saudi Arabia, these are small countries with small populations. And at least three of them, the UAE and Qatar have enormous hydrocarbon wealth relative to the size of the population. And if you have that, then that can lubricate a lot of things and that can calm a lot of things”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think there's a few things here. I think the first thing is you're right to point out the flare up in the Middle East did not start on February 28th, 2026. The Middle East has been an enormous constant state of war, at least since October twenty twenty three. It's just we're feeling it more in the global economy because you have the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and because energy facilities in the Gulf are being hit, energy is being weaponized now unlike what was happening before February 28th. I think you're also right that what happened in Gaza has definitely led to a level of anger and fury in the Arab world. That's probably unprecedented. And we've reported in this my colleagues Sandagar and others have written about this for Bloomberg.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wouldn't be the case that Rex Tellison used to be the CEO of ExxonMobil was one of the early companies that went into the Qatar LNG industry. There you go.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you have this sort of crowding out. Again, tourism. Yes, like in January and December, it's beautiful over there. The weather is great when the rest of the world is dark, cold and rainy. But probably people are not going to come and spend six weeks instead of 10 days there. They're going to spend that 10 days between different countries. So that creates a form of cannibalization and competition. And that adds to basically the intra sort of GCC competition, which comes to the surface at times.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The problem with this is you're talking about a small geography in the same time zone almost. So do you really need multiple mega airports with multiple global airlines? Probably not. Do you need multiple megaports? Probably not. You probably need one or two. Do you need multiple financial centers as a financial center in Dubai, another one Abu Dhabi, an old one in Menam and Bahrain? Qatar has one. Saudi has one. Probably not. You probably just need one.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a great question, Tracy. And possibly the likely answer is no. And you're right. So they face the common question, which is basically their economies are extremely dependent on oil and gas. If you look at the exports, if you look at government revenues, they're dominated by oil and gas. They knew they needed to diversify away from this. They needed to diversify away from this because all prices were volatile. Because if all prices dropped by 50%, you can't have your incomes drop by 50% without adjusting your spending, which is usually painful. So it's good to diversify. So what they did is they went to consultants and asked them, you know, what sectors should we target? And they got the same answer. You should move to petrochemicals. You can move up the hydrocarbon value chain. You should be a financial center, a tourism hub, a logistical hub, and now it's called AI. It used to be called knowledge-based economy and big data at some point. It was crypto.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One entity, these six countries are all monarchies, all oil and gas producers that have the same foreign relations or sort of foreign relations strategy. And it's actually very different now than at least three or four sides to it.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the current status is basically these countries have different visions and different paths. And I think even after this conflict, there'll be different visions on how to deal with the US. The question that Joe asked, you know, there is a disappointment in the US. What do we do? I think some countries like the UAE would double down on its relationship with the US and possibly Israel. I think a country like Qatar will stick to the US, but tries to create a rift between the US and Israel while it has an alliance with Turkey. I think if you're Saudi Arabia, what the U.S. wanted from you is money, is deals, but also a normalization with Israel because every US president thinks that they can get the Nobel Peace Prize if they deliver that. That looks distant now in the context of the current war. And Saudi has to choose where it aligns itself relative to the others. Oman is a completely neutral country that is talking to everyone and quietly doing things on way. And Bahrain is, again, somewhere in between. So I think we used to think about the Gulf as”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think if you think about the Gulf, there are so many common things in the Gulf. You know, they share, they're almost the same ethnicity, same language, same religions, same coastlines, same geography, even at times, same external threats. But there are also points of disagreement. I think if you think about the economics, all of these countries are trying to diversify away from oil. And sometimes they overlap on the same sectors. Sometimes they have different visions for how to manage the oil wealth, which is important, and that sometimes shows up in OPEC Plus meetings. And on the security and national security and geopolitics, there is this agreement about the role of political Islam in the region.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, so the big story in the Gulf, and in terms of intra-gulf relations before February 28th was there was a big Saudi and UAE rift. It was visible, it was out in the open, it reminded a lot of people of the rift with Qatar in 2017, although I didn't think it would escalate to that level. And the points of disagreement were basically the two policies, two contradictory policies on Yemen, on Libya, and on Sudan.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In 2018 and 2019, there were attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf, both in the Persian Gulf, but as well as the attack on Aramco in 2019. And the U.S. was nowhere to be seen. So I think the security umbrella, the political umbrella for the US security is definitely there is a challenge there and it hasn't delivered uncertain important points of time. But when it comes to the military equipment, I think that that has proven its worth. Heard the chaos. Now you can see it Watch all your favorite podcasts from start to finish right inside the free iHar Radio Catch every laugh and eye roll on shows like the Tom Green Farmcast and Park the bus. Now with full video. We're building a ramp for Tony Hawk. It's the same hosts and the same chemistry with all the hilarious moments you've been missing. Right on your screen.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, some have, but it could have been a lot worse. And the reason why it wasn't a lot worse is because they were using state-of-the-art US military equipment, which has proven their worth. So I don't think that will stop. Actually, interestingly, if you look at the trade relationships, there was a big change. So the US used to be an important trade partner, then China took over around 2010, and now trade with China is at least three times as big as trade with the US, except in one area where defense, the US completely dominates. So that's that side, and I don't think that will change. And then there is the political and sort of the strategic side. This is not the first time that the US security umbrella disappoints the Gulf. This is one episode out of several. There's this current one, which is probably the biggest. There was an episode in 2017 when Qatar faced a blockade from its neighbors and didn't get the US protection that it wanted.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it does, but there are two dimensions to this. There is a dimension where you have the military equipment and there is a dimension where you have sort of the political will and the strategic side of it. In terms of military equipment, I think US military equipment may have proven their worth. A lot of drones, a lot of missiles were thrown at the Gulf. And very few percentage of this has filtered through.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That came They gave him, you know, they injected a lot more barrels of oil into the market to lower oil prices, potentially against some of their economic interest. They pledged trillions and trillions of dollars of investments and deals in the US. So they gave all of this, and I think they wanted one thing, which is basically Norregional war, because they thought they'd be caught in the crossfire. And what did they get? Trump visited the Gulf three Gulf states in May 2025. He visited the UAE. He visited Saudi Arabia, and he visited Qadr. A month later, a war erupted between Israel and Iran, which the US intervened in. Four months later, Israel bombed Doha and Qatar where Trump was in May, and about a year, less than a year later, in fact, we have a regional war in which these countries are in the crossfires. So I think it's an outcome that they tried hard to avoid. But for Trump, when it became a choice between what the Gulf wanted,”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think for us. This in Done that mostly Colleague Dines Is that since the last The twelve day Felt like there was unfinished business, and there'll be a second round of this war. So we've written multiple pieces And towards the beginning of the year, It became incre Take place, I personally Because I thought.”
2026-04-13 · Odd Lots · Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source