YouSaid · the spoken record

Annie Duke

lines on the record: 159
first: 2018-07-25
most recent: 2018-07-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I think that my 20th birthday party was probably like most people's 40th birthday party. Like, I think I had a midlife crisis at 20 years old that, like, it was the complete facing death down. So I can tell you that what I would say is it's okay. Like, it's all right. You're just, you're going to move through life. You're going to live life. It's not really, you know, being 20 is no different than being 19. There's lots of great things that come with being older. And it's okay. I think I would have just calmed down, stop having a midlife crisis.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I Somebody who I might actually say that I have a little bit of the opposite problem of a lot of people, which is I actually live in the future and very often the far distant future a little bit too much. Literally having like a collapse on my 20th birthday would be an example of living in the future a little bit too much. I mean, I just felt like, oh my God, I'm not a teenager anymore. And this means I'm going to die It was like this whole confronting of mortality. It was this really bad. It was like.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, well, I'm going to tell you, I'll tell you a story. My 20 year old self is actually very specific. It's very funny. For some reason, when I turned 20, it was like the worst birthday I've ever had, much worse than any other subsequent birthday. For me, there was something so significant about not being a teenager anymore.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going five minutes over the speed limit. Maybe they think that's immoral. And what I say to someone like that is okay. Like I literally can't argue with you. That's what your values are. Then I guess you won't speed. I mean, don't then you're not going to gamble, but hopefully I can gamble because we're making different choices. I really, on a lot of moral questions, I just really revert to the direct harm principle”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In order to try to best this, you know, to try to beat the market. So I don't really view it as that different. That being said, I mean, I can understand why somebody would have a moral objection to gambling. And if they have that, what I would say is don't gamble. I get it. I have different moral views about lots of things than other people do. There are some people that think that owning a bar is immoral, for example, or a variety of. I mean, there's just many things. So some people think that speeding is immoral.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nobody's been forced to enter. And people are getting different things out of it, right? So I could be playing with somebody who is there for pure entertainment purposes and they're viewing whatever money they might have at risk as the same as if they were going out to a nice restaurant and they may actually not have an expectation or a value in actually coming out ahead at the end of the night. I certainly don't know that. But we've all voluntarily sat down at the table and we're doing this thing where we're using our mom.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“About the morality of gambling I have my own values around that. I mean, it's for me, it's the same as what's the morality of being an options trader. Right. I mean, it depends on how do you take it to the extreme, right? Like, what's the morality of the fact that if I have a restaurant and I'm selling food that you are giving me money in exchange for that, I think that that's a perfectly moral thing to do. And so that's the lens through which I view it is that there's a market and everybody's playing in the market and they're voluntarily playing in the market.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When I was talking to James Altershor, he brought up the different versions of yourself, meaning like there's me that gives advice to my children. Maybe that would help me think about a decision that I have to make in business. Well, if I were giving advice to somebody else, you know, what's the advice that I would give them? Maybe that version of me can help this version of me make a decision. So we could think about some situational traveling, traveling from one situation to the other. I think of that as another way to create a group. It's just a group of different versions of you and that you can bring all of those different versions of you into the decision that you're making now.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that it's what allowed Pete Carroll to make that call. It's what allows you to take the shortcut to the dinner party. Is that you're saying, I understand there might be some pain in the short run, but that's okay. Because I think long run this is way better for me. And I've had a conversation with future Annie. And we've talked to each other. That when we think about how we create a good group to make decisions, we can think about actual physical other people, but we can also think about other versions of ourselves. We can think about future me. I can bring past me Into the decision because Past Me has a lot of experience with this kind of stuff, right? So I could bring past me into it.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like literally need a pen to write that down. That was really good. You should write that down and just like post that somewhere because that is exactly right. It's getting The future version of you to get involved in the decisions of the present version of you and That's exactly what you're doing when you say, like, okay, I'm going to take some short term pain right now. I'm going to admit that I had some part in the way that this outcome turned out. Or maybe I'm going to explore the possibility that this great thing that just happened was because I got lucky. That's a painful thing to do. I don't get to celebrate and like, you know, have a party for myself. But I can only do that if future Annie is involved in the conversation.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In terms of how her life turns out, I think that we can agree that the better my decisions, the higher the probability that I have a life that turns out in a way that's good. It's almost like, yeah.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, going back way back to the beginning of this conversation, remember we're talking about, well, we have this trade-off, right? We can kind of feel the pain in the moment. That's, right? The pain is good in the long run if we use it well, because we're going to be better decision makers in the long run because we're experiencing the pain. But the pain in the moment is pain. It doesn't feel good. So we have these competing problems. What's best for me now, present, Annie, in terms of the way that I feel? Versus what's best for future Annie.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Create one, find one. You know, maybe you can plug into something at like a YPO and get yourself a pod there or find people in whatever enterprise you're in, in the company that you're in. Could be friends that are like-minded. Go find some people to be in a group with you because you really need people to watch your back and you can help them by watching theirs. So that's number two is this is a group process. If you really want to get better at this, you need other people. And number three is Start being a really good time traveler.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you acknowledge I'm not sure, you naturally view your beliefs as under construction. And so then what happens is that you end up being much more open-minded to dissent. You end up being much more hungry. You're more likely to start Googling things. You're more likely to ask people their opinions and try to start working with other people to share in this process of constructing your beliefs, which you view to be under construction. And that's the power of I'm not sure. So I think that's number one. Number two is it's really hard to do it on your own. So get yourself a group and really.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Instead of saying, I know that, well, I mean, from the 2016 election, instead of the pundits who were saying, I know that Clinton's going to win, that people would be more accepting of like innate silver saying she's 65% to win, and that he would be seen as the more believable character in that play, right? But I think that you need to be training this much younger. And I don't think that we get people to think this way very well. But certainly I think in a company as a leader, you're much more believable when you're modulating your beliefs to the people on your team, to the people that you're working with. So I think that's the first thing. It's like wrap your arms around uncertainty. It's going to make you a better decision maker because”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't think that that's what somebody wants in a room, in a company with their leader. You know, the people in the room, they aren't the populace who's saying, please tell me that everything's going to be okay and that it's all going to, you know, hopefully you're all sort of in the process together trying to come up with the right answer. And then I'm not sure is a really good thing, you know, in some sort of way. Like you want to be expressing that in some sort of way. I honestly wish we were training this kind of thinking earlier and getting people to understand probabilistic thinking better so that you could”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With our boss But in the minute, you know, in the moment of a debate where you have like two seconds to say something, you just want to hear the answer. I think a lot of people, I think that people very often aren't comfortable with uncertainty and they want to believe that the world is kind of a scary place.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, no, I think I can think of one candidate who won two terms who did modulate a lot of what they said. That being said, I think that it depends on what country you're in. I think that it depends on the culture that you're sitting in and how much the culture is sort of this culture of confusing certainty and confidence. So I think that our general, there's a difference between sort of the initial reaction of how do we react in the moment versus like if you ask somebody, what do you want really in your president? I think that most people would say, I want someone who's thoughtful and they think things through. And they hire really smart people around them who can help them.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I would say a couple things there. I mean, I think that we have had some candidates who did speak that way. So number one.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. I think that there's a difference between when a candidate has to express it to the general public, particularly when that public can't talk back and you as a leader in a room with the people that you're working with. And being able to model that kind of behavior, I think is going to cause people to respect you more and it's going to cause them to share back with you and see that the process is better. And you're going to be considered more believable because you've put thought into the process. I think you're also expressing to them that you value their opinions as well. So yeah, I understand that when a political candidate is talking to 100 million people, that there isn't time to waffle. You have to just say that you know things for sure, which by the way, I think is a shame.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. And doesn't that make me more believable? Because I've told you that I'm thoughtful, that I've thought about the process.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If there's any uncertainty to their opinion, they're going to be unlikely to express it to you. Because of this, either they think they're wrong or they don't want to tell you you're wrong when they're not necessarily certain themselves. And that's bad because now you just lost the opportunity to explore and learn and calibrate the beliefs that you have. But the other thing is that when you express the uncertainty, I think that you do become a much more believable communicator. When I say to you, well, here's my belief, but I only read it in these two articles. So I just want to let you know, and these are my sources, what have I told you about myself?”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What I mean by, I think we conflate confidence and certainty that we think that in order to be seen as confident communicators, to be confident, to be believable, that we must express things with certainty. And there's all sorts of bad things that come from that. The first thing is that you close people off to telling you what they know because, well, for one of two reasons. Either they're embarrassed because they think they're wrong. I mean, after all, you've just said, I'm sure. And so maybe they're like, I don't have my phone to Google this right in front of me, so I don't want to say anything because I think I might be wrong. But the other thing, and you can think about this as the leadership problem, is that as a leader, if you express things with certainty people in the room might not share with you because they don't want to say that you're wrong, particularly in front of a group. Or maybe just alone to you. And so they kind of keep it to themselves. And they keep their opinion to themselves, particularly opinions that they themselves aren't certain of.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. So these are all different, there's all another way to say I'm not sure is I think that Elvis died somewhere between age 40 and 47. So that's another way to do it, right? So these ways that you're wrapping in, I'm not sure into the way that you're speaking.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, okay, I don't know if I'm going to do these in order. So don't take these as number one, two, and three. I'm just going to think about what the three main takeaways are. I think that the main takeaway is say I'm not sure more. I think that we confuse confidence with certainty. And we think that if we say I'm not sure, or something like that, meaning, I mean, another way to say I'm not sure is I'm 62%. Another way to say I'm not sure is I believe this thing to be true, but just so you know, I only looked at two articles on it. So all of my information is coming from these two places”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Be a good way to start doing things? Can we start trying to implement some of these ideas now? We don't have to implement all of them at once, but how about if we just start doing red team, blue team? Like, can we try that? We're going through a strategic planning process. What about taking Bob Sue and Larry and court it and they have to argue against us? We send them off to argue against that. Can we try that and see what comes from that? Because I read somewhere that that was a good idea. And you can start maybe trying to get these kernels in until you can, you can actually from the bottom up create these cultural changes, I think.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Explore that, right? So, you know, that's where you get to speaking to each other like this. Well, like I see your point, like let me try to understand what your point is. And then let me see what I can add to that because I have, you know, I'm thinking about it this way because, you know, I'm looking at it through this frame or I'm imagining this extreme case. And I think if I stress test your idea at the extreme, it feels to me like maybe there's a problem. You know, that's where you start this very moderating language because your own beliefs are moderated and you move out of the extremes and think about how much more open you're going to be in that exploration process with me. I mean, it's going to change everything about the way we communicate. So find those people, like listen for them and start to pull them in and you can start to create that culture. If you have the kind of relationship with the leadership that you're interacting with, go talk to them about it and say, like, I really think this would be.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Those things, right? So when you say, if you say I'm wrong, I'm allowed to say to you, well, am I wrong or do you disagree with the thing that I said? Because if you disagree with the thing I said, that's different than me being wrong. That means that we have a disagreement about what the truth is. And so let's start to try to.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Or that turned out so badly, what a stupid decision. You can start thinking for yourself, like, what are those signals? And do that when you're sort of in a rational place, when you're not in the midst of a bad outcome, or by the way, a good one. Because also what should go in there is like I knew it was going to work out. And like that's, I was so smart and I really thought through this decision so well and I knew it was going to work out well. And, you know, I mean, by the way, you should put $2 in the jar for those ones, right? Because it's a lot harder to spot your mistakes when you win. Because, boy, it's like not basking in the glow of how great you are. That takes a lot. That's really hard, right? In some ways, that's the harder thing. So put $2 in the jar for that one. But if you can create that kind of stuff and then now you kind of have this idea of like, here are the types of categories of things that we could be saying, which are going to be signals. And let's hold each other accountable.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're thinking too much in black and white. I mean, I talk in the book about creating a decision swear jar, which is, you know, I mean, the swear jar is like if you say the F word, you've got to put a dollar in the jar. Yeah. Well, you know, think about the things to you that are signaling that you're not processing information and maybe the most unbiased way. Like when I'm saying things like, you're wrong I mean, I should have to put a dollar in the jar for that one when I'm saying I should have known.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, can we help each other? I think it would be great. And then actually intentionally make this agreement. Like literally say, okay, here's our charter. This is what we're going to do. And this is what we want to implement. And here's how we're going to talk to each other. We're going to work through process. We're going to try to speak probabilistically. We're going to create scenario plans. We're going to try not to be resulters. If you hear me resulting, you're going to call me on it. If you hear me doing self-serving, you know, falling prey to self-serving bias, you're going to call me on it. If you, you know, confirmation bias, you're going to call me on it. So on and so forth, right? Like you're really saying this.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think The answer is intentionally. I mean, first of all, find listen for people who are talking a little bit more like you, who clearly have an intent to try to do better. Now, that doesn't mean that they're not falling prey to things like self-serving bias or motivated reasoning or, you know, but you can, I mean, when I was walking through a poker room, I could hear the people who were sort of, you know, oh, okay, that person's really trying to get to the truth. That person's just trying to complain over here and, you know, gravitate over toward those people. And then what you can do is if you, once you see the kernel of that in those people, say, hey, I really want to try to get better at my job. And I think, you know, I imagine you do too. Like, can we?”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I can try, but I know it's going to mess it up. So please don't tell me how it turned out and like beg people not to tell, like, please quarantine me from the outcome. I do not want to be infected with it.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So if you get brought in and they're like, we really want you to help us work through this decision, like your best bet is to say, please, okay, that's fine. I'm going to agree to that, but please do not tell me how this turned out. I don't want to know the outcome because I want to give you the highest fidelity advice. And I know that as a human being, once you tell me the outcome, that's going to be distorted.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So that's the easiest way to do it is do it before the outcome is known. But if the outcome is known, Don't tell the outcome if you can. Right. So if you get brought in”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Support of the belief. And they don't even know they're doing it. They could say, no, we're trying to be really open minded. Like, we want to be an open-minded organization, but just the expression of them saying this is what I think is the right path or this is what I think is the right strategy or this is what I is what I believe to be correct the room starts reasoning toward that without even knowing that they're doing it that's one way to infect the process if you if you know the outcome it can infect the process so you should feel really lucky if you have people that you can work through a decision with where they don't know how it turned out now that's lucky if you can find those people I mean you could do that skillfully as well because you can create a group of people that you need”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you know, without the anchor of the outcome, it's a lot easier to sort of look at what are the ways that we can make a good decision and figure out if we're having a good process once you have the outcome, it just overshadows anything else that could happen. And you end up taking this because it is so opaque. It's very easy to now reason around that to make the outcome make sense. And there's a couple of ways that that's a problem. If the leader expresses their belief about what's correct in a sense, that acts like an outcome. And the group without knowing it and the leader without intending to have that happen now causes a situation where disagreement with that belief is less likely and people are actually going to start reasoning towards”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It was a good one too. So, um, and it's why people will surround themselves with people like that, because it doesn't feel good for a lot of people to be disagreed with. And if you're a leader, that's bad. The other thing is that to your point where you said, well, how do you reason through a decision? Like, how do you, what are the kinds of questions that you might ask somebody to try to figure out if a decision is good as if you don't know the outcome? I think that part that you said about don't know the outcome is actually really significant. Because I think part of the problem, and we know this from resulting, is that if you know the outcome, it actually distorts the analysis of the decision process so much. It becomes this huge anchor because the decision process is opaque. There's hidden information. There's luck. We don't really know how much luck there is a lot of the time. We don't know what we don't know, right? I mean,”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. They don't want to disagree with the leader. Well, there's kind of two things that can happen. So yeah, they don't want to disagree with the leader. They don't want to be seen as like the negative Nancy or whatever. I don't know why Nancy is so negative. Seems like. Be negative Nathan, the negative Nathan. You know, they want to be seen as a team player. They don't want to be seen as naysaying the company. They're afraid of disagreeing with the leader. I mean, there's a lot of leaders who don't like to be disagreed with, right? They make their pronouncement and they're not looking for people to disagree with them. They don't like that. That's why we have the word yes man in the English language. And I'm sure every other language has some sort of yes man.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because we have an agreement to it. And I think that what's really cool about that kind of agreement is that going back to that idea of how do you disagree without being disagreeable, again, I think it depends on how you view the disagreement. Because if we'd agree if we have an agreement that you're going to help me with my decision making, you're going to help me construct an accurate view of the world. If you withhold information from me, now that's hurting me. You're violating our agreement by not giving me a perspective that disagrees with me. If you have one, you're violating our agreement by not sharing information that you have that might moderate my opinion downward. It's a huge problem.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And hopefully, if we're in a decision pod, part of what I'm doing is asking you those questions. Because I know that because of the way that your mind works, you're just less likely to ask them of yourself. So am I. I'm less likely to ask them of myself.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Why did you make this prediction in this particular way? Because maybe I have information that you missed that I can now provide to you. Maybe I can start quizzing you. Well, do you think that there, can you think of any information that you could have brought into it that maybe would have made you make a different decision? What is it that you do think you could have found other information in retrospect you wanted to go toward a certain conclusion? And so you drew this particular information that you had or this detail or whatever it might be. Well, what about all this other stuff that existed out in the world? Like why weren't you considering that? Did you ask yourself why it might not be true? Did you seek out the advice of other people? Did they tend to be people who agreed with you? Were you asking people who disagreed with you? Did you ask anybody why they thought you might be wrong? Like these are all the kinds of questions that you're always asking yourself if you really want to be a good decision maker.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have all been jerked. Have all been jerks. That changes the way that I'm thinking about what kind of advice I might be giving them or how we might work together more importantly through the decision than if the last nine people that they dated were all amazing. And now they happen to be with a jerk. You can see how that really matters, that context. Yes, I want to know when you were working through the decision what information was informing the decision that you were making, what were the possibilities that you thought could happen because maybe I disagree with you. Maybe you say to me, I was 70% that this was going to work out really well. And I'm like, that seems high. So now I can quiz you on it. Well, why did you think it was 70%? Because, gosh, it really feels lower to me. So let's explore that together and see why that is. I want to know the, you know, particularly I want to know the information that you were pulling mainly in order to drive the decision.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, when you're actually working through a decision with someone, you want context, for one thing. So I would want to know how things had gone in the past for them with other decisions. So in other words, what was, first of all, I want to know how things have been working out for them sort of over the long run. So like I'll give you a really simple example. If someone's coming to me and complaining about a problem that they're having in a relationship, it's good if I know how things went and all other relationships. So if they're telling me. This person I've been dating is such a jerk. And I know that the last 10 people.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Figure out what you need to know. Like, I mean, I can imagine that there are certain things you need to know. Like we're in the sales cycle, are you where in the fiscal year are you? What was your relationship with the person in the other company? Did you have other relationships with people in the other company or was it just you just had one point person and how had things gone in the past? You know, what kind of during the conversations, what were they telling you about where they were? Like how were they describing how they wanted to continue to have interactions with you? Was it vague? Was it we're going to set a date to be able to do this? What are the strategies that you were using? How did you figure out how to figure out when you were interacting with them and when weren't you? I'm making this up, but I assume that these are maybe salespeople can write you and tell me that was the most ridiculous thing that anybody ever said. But the point is like you should try to do that for yourself.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So that if I gave them advice, her advice in this particular case, it wouldn't have helped her because I would have just been like making things up because I didn't have the details. So you can think like you can imagine fitting this to whatever you're doing, figure out what the details you are. If you're in sales.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sidela share, and I was like, well, there's no point. Because you're not, I have no idea where were you in the action? Like, you can't tell me all three cards that came down on the flop. I don't know who raised or who didn't. Like you just described a hand where you were the pre-flop raiser and somebody called and then somehow they checked in front of you, but they weren't in a blind. It doesn't even make any sense. So why should I give you advice? It won't help you.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Were you the pre-flop raise, or did you call how many people were in between you when you called? Because I can't, the problem is that if I don't know some very simple facts, like where you first to bet or second to bet, or were you the raiser or not the razor? Or how had the people been playing around you? Like, was the person that you were playing against? Did they tend to be looser or tighter? Any of those questions, what did the board look like? There's literally no point in me giving you any advice because I'm not going to give you an advice of any fidelity. I was actually talking to a friend of mine, Liv Borie, who very early on in her career, I mentored her and was working with her in terms of she's a very, very good player now, but way back when she was first learning, I was working with her. And I was talking to her about it the other day. I said, you remember when you first started playing with me and you come and describe a hand to me? And I was a little bit erased.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They'd be in poker, yeah. Sure. I need to know how many people were at the table. Were you in a cash game or a tournament? If you are in a tournament, what point in the tournament are you? How close are you to the money, for example? Have you already made the money, these kinds of things? In a cash game, have you been winning or losing recently? What does your stack size look like? What's the form of poker that you're playing? Are you in early position, middle position, late position? In other words, where exactly are you sitting at the table? What was the action prior to the hand prior to the point that you have a question for me? Were you the pre-flop raiser? So this is all jargon.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think it depends on what the decision is. What I think is really important that you bring up is that there is, that there are details that I need to have. And I think that you have to think for yourself. In whatever you're doing, and you can work this through with a group of people who are also experts in whatever you're doing or trying to become experts in what you're doing, or what are the details that you always need in order to construct a good decision, because you know that for yourself better than I do. I can tell you from poker, for example, there's all sorts of details that I need.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT