YouSaid · the spoken record

Annie Duke

lines on the record: 159
first: 2018-07-25
most recent: 2018-07-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Thinking about writing in this section. And I'm bouncing it off other people and trying to hear what they have to say and how it's playing with them. And that's actually a lot of what I do a lot of keynoting. And that's a lot of what that is, is you're putting these ideas out to the audience and then sort of seeing how they respond back and getting that feedback and that's allowing you to figure out your narratives and the way that you're expressing it and whether you think the ideas have fidelity. How are you being challenged when the people come up to you afterwards? So by the time I ever get it down on paper, it's been really well journaled. It's just been journaled in this way that my mind happens to work really well.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because I had that group, when I was on my own and I was kind of thinking about those things on my own, I was always imagining it as if I were talking to somebody else. You know, so for me, that internalized conversation of the group became my own journal, as opposed to physically writing it down. It's interesting though, because even in the writing process of writing the book, I don't write a whole lot of drafts because most of my drafting is in my head. I'm like, you know, I'm like, you know, in yoga, and I guess this is bad because you're supposed to only be on your mat. But in yoga, I might be, you know, working through some ideas or, you know, walking around or I'm driving or whatever it might be. I'm actually composing in my head and I'm working through the structure and the arguments and then I'm sort of imagining talking about those with other people and trying to refine them. And then I do talk. Well, here's what I'm thinking about. This is what I'm.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have them challenge. And that's just my learning style. When I imagine a decision journal, the kind of decision journal that I imagine would be, you know, go talk to people about what you've changed your mind about today, right? It would all involve, I think, go talk to other people, go find other people to speak to, go, you know, and then I also.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think that people learn in different ways. And for me, the way that I really learned was through conversation with others. The way that I found that I was best held accountable to my own ideas was to expose those ideas to other people.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I actually don't. I'm not a journaler, and I wish that I were because I think it would be way better. I'm much more of a...”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Strategically, what I should be doing so that when I go back and execute on my own sort of executing what I've learned and what I'm sort of bought into in terms of process”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My job as a leader to have worked through what the process is and what the strategy is with that person before they go off and execute so that we're all bought in. And they, and I understand what their reasoning is. They know that I've bought into the process. They understand that I know that there's some probability that it doesn't work out, but we've agreed that as they go and execute, that they're going to execute on this plan and then they're going to come back and we're going to discuss later to see how we might refine in the future. But they're not going to be held responsible for the bad outcome. They're going to be held responsible for having worked through the process together. And that's actually very similar, actually, to poker. So I'm executing on my own, but then I'm going off to my group and saying, hey, can we deconstruct this session that I played so that I can start thinking about what are different lines of play? And if I make these kinds of decisions, in particular situations, what are the different ways that I think that could turn out? And let's start thinking about.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, first of all, I think that the process for coming to what the right decision is can be similar regardless, because what I was doing was certainly in the moment I was making my own decisions, but it was my responsibility to go talk to the people who were my peers that I was trying to learn with and work through and deconstruct those decisions and talk about strategically what I might be doing in the future. So in some sense, that's a similar problem, right? I have to go execute on my own, but I'm interacting with a group in order to try to figure out what my best strategic plan is. And I think that that's actually in large sense very similar. That being said, obviously it would be really nice if I could go through a group decision-making exercise at the table, but that would be bad because it's one player to a hand and you need to play on your own. But I actually don't think that it's that dissimilar. And I think that you can sort of view as a leader the same thing, that yes, the person has to go execute on their own, but it's.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of knew it was going to happen. So I think that that really allows you to now focus much more on what's the process for getting us to understand what the decision is. And obviously as the future unfolds as it does, you can go back in and examine and say, you know, did we miss something in that process? Or was it just it was the 27%? You know, were our probabilities, right? Like you can ask that, but you've done it all together.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's going to allow you to now anticipate sort of where things might go wrong. It's going to allow you to wrap that into the scenarios that you think might occur. It's going to allow you to adjust the probabilities of success or failure. So you go through those kinds of exercises. You create now, okay, we're going to go with decision A. Here are the scenarios we think might occur. Here are stabs at the probabilities and you memorialize it. So now when the thing happens that's right up there on the whiteboard, you took a picture of it. That didn't work out. And it's got that percentage by it, you know, okay. Well, we thought 33% of the time this was going to happen. It was going to be bad. It makes it very hard to result because how do you go back and say our process was really bad? It's like, well, here it was.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To have it's a two year goal. Let's imagine at the end of two years that there's a newspaper that says we failed. We did not reach our goal. Everybody in the room now write down five reasons why we failed. And now what happens is that very often in these rooms, you end up with this team player problem. Everybody wants to be seen as a team player. Everybody wants to be seen as agreeable. Everybody wants to be seen as sort of like we're winning the game because we're all so smart and like cheerleaders. When you do a pre-mortem, now you've changed what it means to be a team player, right? Like the people who are going to get pats on the back are the ones who come up with the most creative reasons for failure.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want the people in the room to judge me. And what's really wonderful then is that now I'm going to start thinking about well, why are we so far apart? Why does he think it's 30%? I'm likely to probably moderate my view. You're likely to probably moderate your view. And everybody in the room is now going to learn because they're exposed to what our process is. And that's wonderful. And now, let's say most of the room agreed with me and you were this outlier at 30%, you get a chance to have your voice heard and your voice is now represented in that scenario plan that we've now created. So that's a great way to do it. Another way you can do it in order to really make sure that you're getting those, you know, why might it go wrong and those dissenting voices is to do what's called a pre-mortem, which is examining the patient before it's dead instead of after. So imagine, okay, we have this goal as a company. We want to increase sales by X amount. Let's imagine, and that's, say, a goal that we want.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At this point, or we might all update our view because we might all come now to something that's more in between. But now make us switch sides. You now have to argue my side that I'm 70% and I have to argue your side that you're 30%. And the people in the room are going to judge who wins the debate. In other words, not who's right, but who's the better arguer of the other side. Notice that makes me construct the best version of your argument. My goal is to be able to argue it better than you could because I want to win.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. Now, this is really exciting because you and I are pretty well informed. We're on the same team. We're in the same company. We're kind of working with the same information. And yet we really disagree about the probability. That's exciting and that's good for us.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so if you can do that, if you can sort of get, okay, well, here's what I think the outcomes of this decision might be, here are the probabilities that I think that those might occur with. And then in that process, make sure that you're really wrapping in the dissenting voices. And this is very important. And you can do that in a variety of ways. One is that you can do, you know, you can create red team, blue team. So you just create a team of people who are supposed to argue against, you know, what the prevailing opinion is. If you have people in the room who really disagree on the probability of a particular outcome is, which will happen, force them to change sides. And we disagree. You're at 30% and I'm at 70%. Wow, we're way off, first of all, cool.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Information hungry. So it actually makes you more open minded because now your goal is not like I have to have the right answer. It's I want to try to get as close as I possibly can to what the objective probability is. And I can only do that by getting lots of information or listening to people who have different points of view so that I can start asking myself like why might this be wrong? Why might I be off on this? And going back and just constantly trying to refine and get that feedback. So it caused you to be really information hungry. It causes you to view other people's perspectives as incredibly helpful. Again, it's that sort of identity shift around it.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Afraid of it. Most people are afraid to sign probabilities because they think that there's a right answer. And that's true, there is some objectively right answer, and it's likely that the guess that you give is not going to be if we could some mirror into the objective reality, you know, it's probably not going to be perfect. When I said that I was whatever, 73% to get my food back correctly, I don't know if I was exactly 73%. But the fact that I was making a try at it is better than not trying at all. Because if you don't try it all, you're either saying that, well, you're certain it's going to turn out in a certain way, or you're saying something like, well, it either will or it won't. I mean, the fact is that it is probabilistic and you're probably more of an expert than anybody else because you have your own experience in making these kinds of choices. You can certainly go and look at, you know, there's all sorts of business cases and there's data that you can go look at to try to refine that gas. And the desire to make the gas makes you very”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, so I think that there's two. On any given try. Because on a single try, we don't have enough data to know whether it's any good. You flipped one coin, right? Like one time, what does that tell you? You don't have 10,000 coin flips. So you have to get people to feel like it's okay if the one try doesn't work out. And I think that that's as a leader, you just have to culturally, you really have to be good at communicating that. And then you have to live it. You have to act it. So how do you do that? Work the decision process through with the group and actually memorialize the tree that you create. So how do you do that? You have decisions under consideration. And what you want to do is try to figure out as best as you can what are the scenarios that you think are going to result from decision A versus decision B versus decision C and then try to assign probabilities to those scenarios.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I think that it's actually, yes, in the short term, there's less downside, but it creates this really huge long-term downside. And what ends up happening is that either in the business world, you're all of a sudden IBM and trying to scramble and rethink your business model in order to compete with people who have just crushed you because they were willing to be innovative. And in your own life, it causes you to be stuck.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly, how should I execute on this? And I understood that I wasn't going to do so well necessarily because I was trying something innovative. But I also thought that it was long run better for me because I was going to be doing something that was better for the way that the market was moving. Poker markets move, like the way that people play changes, how much knowledge or opponents have changes, you know, particularly as it gets on TV and you can run analytics on it, you know, all sorts of stuff.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you're refusing to make a change or make an innovative choice because you're afraid of the downside. And that can have really bad long-term consequences. I mean, I can tell you there were lots of there were many moments in poker where through these kinds of conversations that I was having with people, I thought, you know what? I think that this way that I've been playing in these particular situations, I think there might be a different way to do it. And I understood going in that I was probably going to lose at first because I wasn't used to the strategy. I was sort of trying it out. I was trying to figure out when should I apply it, when shouldn't I, what are the right moments.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think that in any given try, There is more downside than upside. Yes. I think you're on one trial. Not in the long run because you miss the paradigm shifts. You miss the ability to make really big changes. And that's true in your life also, by the way. If you're afraid of trying new things, of Changing your career because if it doesn't work out, you're going to be really sad and you would rather have it not work out by staying in the crappy job that you don't like. Right. I mean, that's you're resulting yourself.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's such a great thought experiment, though, and you can see what's the difference in one case, you did the thing that was conventional, that was sort of time tested. In the other case, you did something that was innovative. And whenever you make an innovative choice, you're exposing yourself to the resulters. And God forbid it's on a really big stage, like national television at the Super Bowl.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you're late. Yeah. You just fight in the car ever, and you walk in, and everybody's like really uncomfortable at the dinner party because they can see the even pass.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you go the usual way that you go to this person's house to the dinner party, and there's like really bad traffic on the route. And, you know, oh man, I'm so upset. And it's like, oh, don't worry, honey. How could you have known? Like, we'll be fine. They'll understand. I'm texting them now to tell them there's traffic. And no one's mad at each other. But what happens when you choose, you're like, you know what? Somebody just told me about this shortcut. And it's like way faster to get there. It's like a totally brand new route. And you go on it. And it's the same thing. There just happens to be really bad traffic or there's construction or there's an accident. It's like, it's just.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's it. And then all of a sudden, your IBM and there's Apple and Microsoft out there, and you're like scratching your head as to what happened. You know, I actually, so I want to do here, this is a really simple when people are like, okay, those are big companies, but what about my life? This is the example that I love to give of this. So you're driving with your spouse and you have to get to somewhere like a dinner party and you take the usual route.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Unlikely to have a lot of variance around zero, right? Like they're going to be they're like little, maybe we're gonna have lots and lots and lots of tiny winners because what I'm really trying to do is protect myself from losing And when you do that What are you going to get? Very small incremental changes, right? You'll get gonna get tiny little innovation”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What a weird thing. IBM has all the money. They already have the market. They have the customers. What is that? How is that? And it's, I've always felt that it's because IBM is operating under a culture of resulting and Apple isn't. Apple can't possibly be operating under a, they're doing something unconventional by definition. Their whole business model is to make unconventional choices. and to do things that are unexpected under the conditions where they're expecting most of them to fail. But IBM, once they're an operational mode, certainly when, you know, they were a startup, they weren't. But once they're in operational mode, they're a company that's just a company that's being run on resulting. And when you do that, what's going to happen is that your employers are going to be making safe bets. And by safe bets, I mean ones that are likely to have a lot of un”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He fails conventionally. And do you think anybody saying that was a terrible decision? So, if you're a leader and you're a resultter, which we all kind of are, then what you're doing is you're telling employees, don't ever make an unusual choice. Don't do anything innovative or unexpected. Because if it fails, I will come down on your head like I'm USA today, the day after the Seahawks lost that Super Bowl. And that's basically what happens. You know, it's so strange. How could IBM possibly ever get crushed by Apple?”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Particularly if the Eagles lost, they would have been looking at that one play and saying they should have just gone for the three points. I mean, it's very clear that that's what they would have been saying. It happened to work. And so, and he's, you know, lauded is an incredible genius. So that's the resulting problem. And that's a really big problem when that's the way that you're evaluating people. And where it's a really huge problem is that it's a real innovation killer. And that comes to the second point, which is that part about everybody expected him to, in this case, hand off to Marshawn Lynch. We can do another thought experiment. He hands off to Marshawn Lynch. Marshawn Lynch doesn't get in. He hands it off to him again.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It was really bad. So, therefore, it must have been, I mean, and it was spectacularly bad, so therefore it must have been a really horrible decision. And then we do the thought experiment where the outcome is.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To your point, well, let's take two different thought experiments thought experiment number one is imagine if the ball were caught. What do the headlines look like? He's a genius, he outsmarted Belichack. So that's the general problem of resulting. So that's resulting in a nutshell is that what you're doing is you're taking something where the decision process, whether the decision itself is opaque, you can't see into was the decision good or bad. You can't see into the process. You don't know what was in his head or what the mathematics were, or you're not, you don't necessarily know what the formation was, whatever it might be. It's opaque. And so as a heuristic, as a shortcut, what we do is we say, well, I know what the quality of the outcome was.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, just plow through. Pete Carroll does something really unexpected, and he has Russell Wilson throw a pass and the pass is intercepted quite famously by Malcolm Butler in the end zone. And this was on television. It's a big stage, game over. And the headlines the next day were just, oh my gosh, they were so brutal. And what I thought was really interesting was that it wasn't an argument like was it a good decision or a bad decision? It was, was it the worst decision in Super Bowl history or the worst decision in football history? That was the question. And I think that what's really interesting about that is.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thank you All right, so it's second down, and the Seahawks have one timeout. This is actually really important, and they're down by four. Last play of the game. Everybody's expecting P Carroll to call a run play for Russell Wilson to hand off to Marshawn Lynch. This is the expected play.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, too bad. And we're sitting in Philly right now. We're sitting in Philly, and I'm a Philadelphia fan, so we finally got ours. Too bad for you.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure. There's 26 seconds left in the Super Bowl. It's 2015. The Seattle Seahawks are playing the New England Patriots, of course, because the Patriots are in every Super Bowl.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“More normal, right? So it's an innovation killer. So we can see this actually with, I didn't get into this issue of innovation very much in this particular book, but, you know, because you only have so much space. But this opening, the way that I opened this book really shows this problem.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And this is the problem in companies as well. So if I know that the person who's in the leadership role that I'm having to report to is going to be looking at the outcomes of the decision and act like I'm on television and all of a sudden do some critique when things turn out poorly overly relying on the outcome in order to derive the decision quality, it's going to make me what you just said make safer decisions. Now, what do I mean by safer? Decisions that are more bulletproof to criticism.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think that what's really interesting is that when you know that you are being examined, this is when what I call in the book resulting really, really matters. So that can be in an organization where how are we evaluating people as leaders? Are we behaving like they're on television and their decisions are exposed to critique, but not the decision process that we're going to be swayed by the outcome of the decision. That's where the television really matters. When I'm on TV and I'm thinking about the decision that I'm going to make, and I understand that it may have a bad outcome, what's in my head is not, is this decision good or bad? It's are people going to think the decision is good or bad because I happen to have lost the hand.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what we're trying, you know, so poker really highlights this problem because you can't help but see the ticker. It's not like you can say, well, I'm just not going to look at it. And I'm going to see how I do at the end of the game. And, you know, hopefully at the end of the game, I have more money. You're forced to watch the ticker all the time. And so it causes that emotional part of your brain to really light up.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're seeing the upticks and downticks, right? So I think that that's in general that's good for making you understand this idea that every decision that you make has some risk to it and you should be treating it like that. But it's bad from the emotional standpoint because you're getting yanked around by the ticker. If you are holding a stock and you've decided that it's a long-term hold, it's not good every hour to go look at how the stock is doing. You're going to have like a really unhappy life if you do that because when the stock goes down, you're going to be super, super sad, even though your idea is just to sort of have the trend line go upward. And, you know, so I think I have a Berkshire Hathaway graph in the book of saying, look at Berkshire Hathaway over the last 40 years. You're happy, right? But look at it on this 1130 on a Tuesday. Now you're really sad.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think that one of the reasons why poker is a kind of interesting place to look at the role of emotion in decision making is because there's a lot of emotion. And one of the reasons why is that one of the things that gets us really emotional is what is the most recent path that we've taken in terms of what our outcomes look like. What I talk about is that in poker, you have this advantage, which is that because we have this constant exchange of chips, right, I make a decision, chips go either toward me or away from me, that you can see very clearly at every moment that every single decision that you make, even these little tiny executional ones, actually have consequences that the executional decisions really matter to what your bottom line is because you're seeing this, you know, you're not seeing sort of the end result.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, if you can do that in the ideal world, then you're much more likely to be making optimal choices. If you can't because the money matters to you, then what will happen is that if you're kind of fresh to the situation, you'll often be risk averse. If you get too emotionally lit up in the moment, then you might become too risk-seeking. In other words, you might be trying to sort of go for a double it up strategy, which is usually not a very good choice. So it kind of depends on where you are in the arc of the game. You know, if things are going sort of, you know, okay for you and you're playing outside your bankroll, you're not going to be seeking risk very much. And I'm going to be able to advantage that. That's the problem is that I can take advantage of the fact that you're refusing to take on enough risk. But if you're actually losing, and it's money, particularly money that really matters to you, now you'll very often start doing the opposite, which is taking on a lot of risk because you're just trying to.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Expressed as a percentage of the total money that they have. So, you know, one of the things you always want to be doing is we talk about playing within your bank role, which means that playing at a level where if you lose, it's not really affecting your overall situation very much. Aren't very good at that because they're overconfident, so people tend to be playing out of their bankroll outside of their bankroll way too often. And then what happens is that they can very often become risk averse because they're just too worried about losing the money. So one of the things that you want to try to do in poker is to separate the chips from the money. You want to view the chips as tools to accomplish a particular goal in a hand and not view it as money at all”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Choices that your opponent is making. Now that's not what happens. As you move up in stakes, it does change the way people play. In particular, when the money matters more. So when the money really matters to people, one of two things happens.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So let me start with the stakes. The ideal in poker would be that the stakes don't matter except in as much as your opponents play differently depending on what stakes you're playing at. So when you're playing at lower stakes, your opponents tend to be more beginners. When you're playing at really high stakes, they tend to be more advanced. What I used to say is that the players who aren't so good at the beginner levels or the advanced levels, they're both not good, but they're not good in different ways. So at the lower levels, they tend to be more passive. They tend to be doing more just sort of calling. At the higher levels, the players who aren't so good tend to be more raising. They tend to be sort of overly aggressive. So that's just sort of a general, it's not true of everybody, obviously. We're talking about averages here, but on average that would be true. So that should be the only reason that the stakes are affecting you, is that when your opponents are making different choices, you obviously should be adjusting your strategy to try to come up with the optimal strategy against this.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, like a very natural question for a poker player would be like, I'm having a conversation with a poker player and they'll say something like, you know, I mean, they could be saying something political. Like, well, right now there's, you know, are they going to pass legislation for bump stocks? So someone might say like, oh, you know, I think the bump stock legislation is going to get passed. And my question would always be then or their question to me depending on who stated the belief would be, well, what do you think the price of that is? Price is just a way to say probability, right? And so then they could say, you know, I think it's three to two or 70% or, I mean, there's all sorts of ways to express that.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I was saying, and then he pointed out to me that he had never had someone say something to that to him about the probability that their order was going to come back right. But this is something that poker players do all the time.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sum total of my sentence. And he started cracking up. He said, I think you're a lot lower. I'm going to put you at like 62. But we both understood that what I was.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Admit our own ignorance exactly. So, anyway, we were having lunch in an Asian restaurant. And I'm like vegan and I'm allergic to gluten. So like it's a little hard for me to order. And soy sauce has gluten in it. So this is a problem at a Chinese restaurant. So anyway, I was ordering and the waiter's first language was not English. So I'm not speaking to a native speaker and I'm trying to explain like all the things that I need. And it was a lot of sort of back and forth with the waiter. And when he walked away, I looked at Stuart and I said, I think I'm 73%. That was the total.”
2018-07-25 · The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT