YouSaid · the spoken record

Ben Hwang

lines on the record: 113
first: 2023-01-10
most recent: 2023-01-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah. Well, okay, so either we'll never get there or we're already there now. But I think in 10 years, it does seem especially maybe we hit like another winter, but it seems like things are accelerating so much. This seems pretty real. It seems pretty real. What do you think society needs to do to change? Because there's like all these things we were talking about. And this seems bigger than just the revolution of software over the last 20 years or internet from last 20 years because we were talking about how it changes government, how it changes regulatory, how it changes education. I mean, I don't even know where you want to start with that, but I think that's something where it may take us 10 years just culturally to be able to get ready for this thing that may arrive in 10 years or may already be here. I don't know where you want to start. Yeah.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes. It's self reinforced Well, so maybe that's a really interesting thing because you can imagine training AI to have these different aspects and its collaboration with other versions of it would be very different. It could be very different.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Also, generally, what generally would happen with people in groups is the social conformance kicks in. And so people this is a well known kind of thing, there's group polarization, which is you take a group of people who met inclined slightly to one side of the vehicle, you put them together, let them talk for three hours. They all come out much more radical. It's self-reinforced. Yes, yes, yes.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The fault, the serious answer is in the wisdom of crowds, madness of crowds. Flip sides in the same coin, right? And so in when are you harnessing the wisdom? When are you descending into madness? Or even just mediocrity?”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. Well, that's the thing that you talked about how can it be, let's say, how does it do compared to 100 doctors? When the hundred doctors collaborate, presumably that's the ideal situation, right? I mean, or that sounds horrifying. No, no, no. I mean, that's the wisdom of the crowd. No, that's perfect. It could go, well, I guess it could go either way, but”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so from that standpoint, if you follow that logic, then it says, okay, if the machine could do a better job, if the machine was twice as good at just like listening to symptoms, giving you the response, during the prescription, doing the follow-up.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that means the ability for a median doctor to even evaluate the success of a treatment, they actually may not be able to do it because they may not have the data on compliance. And so like you look at the existing, I don't know, for me, you look at the existing system by which this all happens, it's very similar to looking at the existing system by which people actually drive cars, which is like, oh my God, this is not good. Like, this is really not good. And we kind of fool ourselves into believing that it's good because it kind of feels good and we don't really want to look behind the curtain, but we look behind the curtain.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then there's all the other sort of things. So then there's like drug interaction. Is any one doctor tracking all the interactions of your drugs? Then there's this other issue, which is, okay, they give the prescription, is there actually compliance for taking the prescription? Does the doctor actually know whether you're taking the prescription?”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there's one little algorithm, which is that they come up with a diagnosis, they come up with a treatment, you go with that. That doesn't work. You repeat it. And while not sick and while still sick and not dead, you just repeat. And then I think many of us have been through that. Well, and then there's.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In a lot of experiences, There's a thing experts in these areas tend to either be like doctors themselves or they like know a lot of doctors or they have like they're you know they work in the industry they make money they have a concierge doctor who spends a lot of time with them and does house calls the media and healthcare experience is 15 minutes in somebody's you know hairy schedule with a doctor that may or may not ever see you again and has very limited data And”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The utilitarian, I'm not a utilitarian, but the utilitarian argument would be you should obviously ban human drivers today because the machine driven stuff is already better, probably by the way, the same is true for airplanes. Right. Now, we're not actually going to do that and there are other considerations involved and so forth. But logically speaking, you should at least think about that as a possibility. And I think you should think about that as a possibility, I think, for a medical diagnosis, which is, you know, and here the test is very simple, which, well, I've expressed two tests. Test number one is the absolute test, which is if I feed in a set of symptoms, it generates the correct diagnosis. 100% of the time deterministically guaranteed. That's a high bar. The other is I do that with the algorithm, and then I go to 100 doctors, human doctors, and I give back 100 different responses. And then let's compare, right? And then let's track over time and see.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Only sometimes thing, and yeah, they're yeah, by the way, you know, increased forms of certain kinds of drug abuse, right? And then, of course, the machines have the characteristic, they get better universally, right? So a car has one mishap in one location every other car gets trained on how to deal with that in the future, where, you know, the learning happens across the entire system. And so I think you can make a serious argument that basically self-driving cars are already better than people on a relative basis. And therefore, like morally, you could even go so far as to say human drivers should be out loud today.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And by the way, this is a topic that comes up all the time with self-driving cars, right? Which is it perfect? It will never make a mistake, or is it just going to be better, better than human? And the way that self-driving cars score this is accidents per thousand miles driven. And self-driving cars are already lower than human drivers.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so the first thing is whenever you score, well, let's talk about medical diagnosis, which is kind of just low hanging fruit question because everybody experiences it. So to start up front, you have to ask a question up front, which is like, what's the threshold? Is the threshold perfect or is the threshold better than human?”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you can do a pick a diagnosis, can you suggest a drug? In those areas, now we're talking about much more limited domain. So we're not talking about, we don't need to go all the way to consciousness for that necessarily. You can have something that's more limited. In that limited domain, right now it seems like generative AI isn't quite far enough yet to be able to like, yeah, I don't see the examples quite yet. Yeah, we'll see. I mean, what's the counter? And I know especially think about healthcare a lot. Yeah. Yeah.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What's interesting is if you think about that time, we had neural nets, but they were all single layer basically. And they couldn't even do XOR. You know, you couldn't even do some simple things because you need a deeper network to get at them. And you couldn't have deep networks then because we didn't have the computational power. And so the space was pretty dormant for a while. AI until we started going to having the basically just the computational power from GPUs and a lot of the things we would go deep. And then you could feed the data through. So it is possible that we sort of have a point where we sort of saturate the compute that we have now. We get to as much as we can get to. And that may get close to AGI, maybe not, and then takes another like 30 years to get to the next sort of breakthroughs to get there. But okay, so I would pull back from this. So AGI is the fun thing. There is a sort of step back, which is to pick a domain. And you know the domains I think a lot about, like life sciences, design and drugs, doing healthcare.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Expert systems. Well, early neural networks, and then a lot of it got into brain chemistry, and like we're going to figure this stuff out and we're going to learn how to build. And it's just like they didn't know then, as far as I know, they don't know now. And so the counter argument would be this is all just like massive cope for the fact that we actually don't understand that. So we don't understand how to do it. And so all we can do is hand wave and kind of just say, well, it's just going to be a merge ed. And it's like, no, it's not. And we're going to be sitting here 30 years from now, and we're still not going to have any more knowledge, but barring other scientific breakthroughs of the kind that you're talking about.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Field, but I didn't go in the fashion. That was going to be what I was going to study in school 30 years ago, but I looked at the field at the time and I was like, they don't have a clue. I'm going to spend my entire career.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Electrical It would probably be some combination on those things. Normally, it's like a lot of tracking in theory to implement this. So like look, we just don't, okay, so here maybe the counter argument is like, we don't know how human consciousness works. We actually.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Quite literal. It's a play like molecular biology was this big thing in the 80s, where if I can bring like chemistry of small molecules to like Pulket biology or chemical biology as well, and if we could use like small molecules to maybe perturb more than just Would you Chemical cat. Experimentation would that be electrical, it could be either one, it could be any of that, but probably be some combination on those things.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We have, like, we have been, we collectively have been studying this question of human consciousness for a very long time. We have very advanced technologies today, functional MRI, like all this stuff.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the cope would be, okay, so here, let me ask you a question What is the sub-specialty of human biology and medicine that must understand the nature of human consciousness today? Oh, I don't think there is one, right? There is one with anesthesiolog”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One way of looking at that is yes, that's what's going to happen. That's what human consciousness emerged. That's basically what's going to happen. They're pushing that is it's just a massive, it's a hand wave. It's a hand wave and the kids are cool.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, maybe we don't have to. So, this is where I describe this is like the Ajac. This is where I call the hand wave. The embedded assumption that it's a web is that it will be an emergent process that will sort of unlock as a consequence of greater and greater levels of scale.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You think about that's true in physics or go to market or in music, it has all that both that sort of complexity and a simplicity at the same time. But so, but I'm curious when AI gets to that point, which I think that's a win, not an if. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So why would you say, why wouldn't it get there?”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Yeah, exactly. And like there are certain signals, there are certain methods and certain signals. It's not necessarily reducible to an algorithm. It's more of like a composite. Foundational knowledge combined with some scope of experience combined with some kind of ineffable characteristic of Juncker.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then therefore, the ability to prove, right? So, yeah, I think that, yeah, so there is something about taste. I tend to think this stuff all has like aesthetic, properly constructed mathematical formula or software program.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is a modern classical, yeah, for that reason. So, yeah, like the market test is real. But yeah, let me grant your point. So let's build on what Nad, you said, grant your point. Let's use the term paste.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A lot of movies like people go to the theater and they feel invested in and they don't want to leave in the middle. But yeah, yeah, it's very easy to punch out. It turns out auto screenplays. This is something that professional screenwriters will tell you it can't ever sag. Yeah, yeah, just as one example, because people will stop watching. So, yeah, so screenwriting is subject to a market test, popular music. Yeah, market tests. But anyway, classical music, which I'm a huge fan of, is no longer subject to market tests. It's thoroughly subsidized. That's interesting. It's not in the free market anymore. Or maybe the equivalents are movie music. So movie music is subject to market tests. Right”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the screenplay. Okay, so the divorce and the education. Yeah, yeah. The screen, the test for the screenplay, the test for the screenplay does itself. So screenplays are subject to market discipline. Yeah. So the question number one for screenplay is, does it sell J Studio? Will they buy it? And then test number two is when the movie comes out and the TV show comes out, is that if they watch it like it? Yes, do this. Finish it. Yeah. Yeah. One of the fun things that Netflix will now tell people who make film and TV is they actually tell them for the first time whether anybody's actually finishing”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I assume there's a process where they write a screenplay. It's kind of mediocre. Oh, Yeah, yeah. And then there's being a critique, or they critique themselves, and then it improves and improves and improves.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's an interesting point. But I think what I'm getting at is still the ability to do something. And so the education part we can talk about how they learn. Because I think in the case of the screenplay or the music you're talking about, they still have to learn something, right? Or do you think they just innately sort of knew how to write a screen”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that if you look at the jokes, the jokes are just kind of okay. The screenplays it makes are not like brilliant screenplays. I think it could get into college, but could it win best screenplay? You know, and so that's this part where I think we're not there yet, you know, but that I think we're getting there”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People in order that I'm far from the girl. I think it is. Or at least that's what you have to do eventually when you get out. Right. And you have to apply it. I think it's one of the things about being an expert in my mind is that Something that is the difference between bad, good, and great can be really close. Like I could probably write a piece of music, but no one with tickets all that great. And then you could have someone who's a good musician but not a great one. Then you have like a genius, like a Mozart or a Led Zeppelin or whatever your peculiar genre. And I think where we aren't there yet is that when the difference between good and great is so close or like, I don't know if I remember from Spilettap, there's a fine line between brilliant and stupid. I think that is where I think it hasn't really hit yet.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. College applications are basically at least to the extent that you believe the college applications were legitimate way to evaluate anybody in the first place. It's dark. I'd be more skeptical that they were ever useful in the first place. Right.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so it's like, okay, the grading method of assign an essay and grade the result is probably not going to work anymore. But it's like, okay, was that ever actually like just because we thought that that was education, was that actually education? Was that actually teaching anybody anything? Actually, I'm sure someone's going to take that to apply to colleges. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“By the way, people who got professors 100 years ago, like how would they score the besties that are being granted today? Yeah, they say I choose, I assure that. Would they say the bar is lower? Lower. I think they would say the bar is dramatically lower. Yes. And so, you know, the answer might be we have lower the bar. But same thing for college admissions. Like, you know, what does it take to get into college? What does it take to finish college? And the education says, well, this is coming up a lot right now because it's like, okay, GPT can auto generate like, you know, essays, right?”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It will very happily do that too. It does not It's been amazing because, in some ways, I feel like it's as much been interesting to study the AI as the AIs reflected for us to study ourselves. And I think we are sort of seeing that the magician has certain tricks, whether it's the AI magician or the human magician. And it's going through this education process. Curious though, like it feels like, you know, so like GPD can get into high school, get into college, let's say. But like, what would it take for it to get its PhD? And I think that's where the sort of dramatic stuff is to come.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you ask it to explain to you why it's not self aware, it will very happily do that too. It does not have a differential opinion about those two outcomes. Whereas every living, you know, every conscious fall, even non-conscious living, or any living organism has a very different response to those two scenarios.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Here's my favorite example for why I know GPT is not self aware. If you ask it if it's self aware and you ask it to elaborate on how it became self-aware, it will happily tell you. And by the way, if you ask it how it's going to field if you turn it off, it's going to tell you, please don't. Yeah, yeah, yeah.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that's too low of a bar because tricking a person is not that hard and does not prove anything other than you've tricked the person. Yes. I think, and this is relevant because I think things like GPT are about to pass the turning test. Yes, many other property already have to have. And so I think it's going to turn out that that was too lightweight of a test”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Maybe they are. Well, This comes into play in drug abuse, right? Which is things that generate an opioid response. Some people get an opioid response from alcohol and their former pro alcoholism. People don't get that response. So it's literally a neurochemical thing. So yeah, look, maybe we're bundles of neurochemistry to a much deeper in depth and a much simpler extent than we want to believe. Having said that, again, oh, oh, and then that takes me to the other thing on AI, which is I do, you know, one of the ways that people are testing AI is with the so-called Turing test. And the simplified form of the Turing test is you're chatting with and somebody that may be a human or maybe a bot and you chat for 20 minutes and at the end, can you guess better than randomist when it's a human or a bot? Yeah.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it's all two by two. It's a 2x2. NS. And we're more basic organisms than we think. And then we just retro, you know, and one of the things that's known is humans are very good at creating a story to justify whatever happened, right? And so we create these stories. These scripts around this idea of an emotion, but it's basically justifying the neural response. And so the cynical view would be like having a ice cream cone on a hot day and falling in love as far as like the same thing.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Good or bad And so we either have a positive, they either have like a positive neural response or a negative neural response, and then it's either high intensity or low intensity. And then you just basically, and so it's like wistfulness is like, you know, just slightly negative, but like, you know, despair is like extremely negative.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It'd be somebody with your background might say that basically it's sort of algorithm for surfing human neurochemistry. Yes, yes. Right. And generating different neurochemical responses to fear and anxiety and love and all these other things.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And basically, what's happening? I think the theory, you know, kind of making this up, but I think the theory would be the hero with a thousand faces or that the idea of a union heroes journey, which is sort of the basis for all of these plots, Star Wars and Harry Potter and everything else.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it will do it and it will. Yes. It's all rocky or it's all Star Wars. Yeah. Well, so actually it's really interesting that maybe what we think is magical when humans do it isn't actually all that magical either.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So here'll be an example. So I also had to do like dramatic screenplays, like dramatic hostage, but quite good at those. Like three, you can say like write a three-act screenplay. It will do it and it will have the proper setup and resolution and so forth. But yeah, there are systems for screenwriting in Hollywood where they have three acts.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's the same idea. But look, there are a lot of jokes on the internet, right? And so you'd have to kind of, you could kind of go back and kind of say, okay, it probably like plucked these jokes. Or by the way, maybe there was a paper somewhere where they articulated a general theory of humor, right? Because this has been, humor has been studied as a thing. And maybe there's like a general thing of humor is like the unexpected or whatever. And so it generalizes.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I'll bet we can check this. I'll bet if we Google long enough. I'll bet we can find a paper that described a general purpose algorithm for multi. That may be, right? Yeah, he's like somebody did. Yeah, I've done the same human. I have it write Seinfeld scripts. And sometimes they're really funny. And sometimes they're just like, it makes no sense.”
2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source