YouSaid · the spoken record

Ben Hwang

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2023-01-10
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2023-01-10
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  1. It has no opinion It has no point of view, it has no like it's not sitting there like thinking on its own, coming up with some new thing. What it's doing is it's basically training ideally what it's doing is it's training on the sum total of all existing human knowledge. So for text generation, it's training on all existing human text, right? And so it plays back at you basically projections from the sort of assembled composite movements of text. You ask it to do the 8x8 like probably somebody on the internet at some point wrote some paper.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Yeah. Like there's no robot that will peg in suitcase. And if you try to get her, like, make an omelet like it. Yes. It'll shred your clothes and destroy they're not, you know, so it could dry your car in a camp pack or suitcase. So you can't do your lottery. So there are these interesting kind of twists. So I would describe a little bit as followed us, which is I think this generation of AI that we have is impressive. It is a little bit of a sleight of hand, which maybe we talk about. But I also think actually to your point, human consciousness or human intelligence is also a little bit the sleight of hand, but the sleight of hand. Yeah, yeah, it'd be slightly different sleight of hand. So the sleight of hand that you see when you're using GPT or one of these image generation things is it's not literally creating new information. Like what it's doing is it is it doesn't have like

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. And what I'm very curious about is actually we may get to some of the expert stuff first before it can do even something like humor. The irony is that something like humor that we take for granted might actually be really hard and other areas might be easier.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Yeah, something like that. Yeah, so it's not bad, right? I can do that work. Yeah, I actually gave it like acid questions to explain the derivation for the source trial radius, you know, the black hole radius to write a code for 8 by 8 tic-tac-toe, like random things that you should never be able to do because it's not just memorizing it, it's generalizing and it's getting that. But then also it actually seems to have some sort of weird hiccups and that actually one thing that really does not seem to get his humor. So I'm kind of curious where you think it's going to go because before we get

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Yeah, actually, I feel that way as well. So I want to get to EGI in a bit. I mean, and also we can debate where the consciousness is an illusion as it is. But where we are now is kind of amazing. Like, can people can take like GPT-3, you can give it SAT exams, can do okay?

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. Reaches the Descartes kind of stage where it is self awareness. Clearly is very creative from an early age. A little less convinced that the software technologies we have now are like on some linear path towards just like what are quote AGI consciousness like I guess. It's hard for me to believe the consciousness is just simply like emergent from higher scale neural networks. That to me seems like a hand wave. Having said that, I had a lot of smart friends who were pretty sure that that's what's going to happen.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Know anybody who's had kids will recognize what I'm about to say. But it is really interesting watching little kids. The way I think about it, or at least the little kid I have, who's great, it's like, you know, it's like everything for the first few years. It's like every single thing he did was like a little applied physics experiment, which is like, let's see what happens if I drop this. Let's see what happens if I eat this. Let's see what happens if I do this to daddy. Yes. Right. And see what the response is. And they just run, experiment. And you can see it. You can see it very clearly when they're like learning how to walk because they're like running all these experiments about how to stand up and what to hold on to and they keep falling over and then at some point like a little neural network like actually figures it out it does learn off and away they go right yeah um and so you know clearly it's like it's kind of you know it's a little bit eerie like you you can see that somewhere kind of thing happening you know look having said that like you know the you know the human brain just like keeps developing um and then you know it ultimately you know it clearly has consciousness achieves you know higher levels of consciousness achieves higher levels of sort of self-knowledge

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. So while this has been happening, and you have kids, like I have a young child, so I have a seven-year-old now. So as this stuff has all been happening, I've been simultaneously training and training now the seven-year-old. Yes.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Yeah, well, it seems almost less like writing software, almost like training something. Like when I think about machine learning and image recognition you talked about, it felt like it was almost like training a dog, right? Like reinforcement learning is like we'll give treats as it gets better. But there's something different now. It feels like, I don't know, we've gone from like training a dog to recognize a bird versus like a hot dog or hot dog or not hot dog or so on to actually something where it feels closer to like training a person or I don't know how you feel like when we talk about learning and training and data like what are we training what is where do you think we are in that arc of gangta like eventually how 9000 and so on

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. But then there's this new way to write software, and this has to do with having these AI systems and then having training data, training the SAMs, tweaking the systems, and the sort of capability that that the way I describe it to kind of normies is that sort of unlocks the ability for computers to more and more interact with the real world and with the messiness of the real world, right? And the probabilistic nature of the real world.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Image creation. And now video creation is right next coming up now really fast. And so it seems like one of those catalytic moments. And then it's like every week now there's like there's like fundamental breakthroughs, there's research papers, there's product releases coming out. So it seems like a cascading thing. The way I think about it as a software person, sort of lifelong programmer is that they're basically in the fullness of time it will appear, I think, that there were kind of two different ways to write software. There was the sort of the old way to write software, which is sort of the classic von Neumann machine, deterministic way. And the whole problem with writing software in the old model is computers are hyper literal. Yes. And so they do exactly what I tell them fluctually. Every time they do something wrong, it's because you have instructed them properly. And it's your humbling experience to learn as a young programmer that everything is your fault. And the machine will just sit and wait for you to fix the problem. It's not going to do that on its own.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Also, Vladimir Lenin once said there are decades in which nothing happens. And then there are weeks in which decades happen. Yes. And let's not hope that happens politically anymore, but it does happen in science and technology. It does happen. There are sort of moments where things kind of hit critical mass. And the sort of AI machine learning revolution seems like that's what's happening right now. It's been interesting to watch. It's sort of like, it feels to me at least, it was like there was like a breakthrough moment in 2012 that had to do with images. And then there was a lot of work subsequently that led to things like the creation of self-driving cars based on that. And then there was some, it feels like some natural language breakthrough maybe three years ago. And now that's really catalyzed into this, you know, kind of whole thing that we see happening around GPT and text generation. And then, you know, even other applications, transcription, you know, is getting much better all of a sudden, speech synthesis is getting much better. And then now you've got this artistic revolution happening with.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. So, you know, you famously wrote about software eating the world. And that was basically what 10 plus years ago. And actually that very much seems to come to fruition if you look at all these other industries that software really wasn't a part of. Software has actually become a dominant part. But actually this year's been kind of an amazing year for another type of software for AI. And I'm curious to sort of talk about the arc of what we think is going to happen in the future based on what we've seen in the past and really how this new technology is going to change everything, much like we've seen software change the last 10 years. I'm curious what you think for just like this year. It's been kind of amazing year. We always seem like not much happens in any given year, but 2022 seems to have been an amazing year for AI.

    2023-01-10 · a16z Podcast · Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source