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Chris Elmore

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35
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2024-02-01
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2024-02-01
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  1. “If the conversations we've had with our guests over these four episodes could be boiled down to one thought, it's that this transformation is more than just a technological shift or an industrial transition. When people in the future look back on epochal shifts in business, technology and society, this will be one of the key examples. And when they want to start at the beginning of this revolution, they'll be looking at where we are right now. Won't stop covering this evolution. If you'd like to stay on top of our latest analysis on this topic and many others, please subscribe to briefings, the weekly Goldman Sachs newsletter. Go to gs.com to sign up.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Eventually, it's going to become illegal for humans to drive, is my kind of guess Over the course of this mini series, we've taken a close look at how the car has played a massive role in defining our world. It's changed how we built our cities, towns, and everything in between. It's been a symbol of personal freedom and even a part of our identity. It has created one of the largest, most ubiquitous industries the world has ever seen, and it has been a rolling laboratory for some of the most advanced technologies we've been able to develop.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Don't mean accidents won't happen. The technology behind autonomy is rapidly advancing, but the legal and financial frameworks it requires may have some catching up to do. Those are just some of the questions worth asking, and I haven't even gotten to the big one. I'll leave that to Chris Elmore. I think one interesting question is how long it will take before it's illegal for humans to drive on public roads. Already by most metrics, not all, but by most metrics, computers are already safer drivers than humans. And so I don't know if it's 10 years or 50 years, but somewhere down the road, again, once we're trying to get to that tipping point, when there's a massive change in the efficiency of our infrastructure and a real realization that the humans are the dangerous ones.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Cities and towns of the future often call to mind images of flying cars and elevated monorails, but the reality may be more subtle. Maybe our future infrastructure looks relatively similar to how it is now, but with invisible layers of electricity and data. Perhaps our cities have fewer cars but more electrified mass transit or even some new personal transportation device that's yet to be invented. And further outside our cities, might people be willing to live farther away if an AV can drive them to work? What does that mean for real estate, for retail, if you can summon an autonomous car for the same price as mass transit? Do you even own a car? Or does mobility become more of a service you subscribe to than a car you purchase? Here's another question that hasn't been answered yet. In an autonomous future, who's liable in a collision, and how do you ensure that? Self-driving car is promised to be far safer than human-controlled ones.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Historically, we've had people building the vehicles and we've had people building the infrastructure. And those two groups didn't do a lot of communicating and interfacing. And I think the modern kind of transportation systems, what I'm seeing from our Department of Transportation right now and from industry is a realization that these things need to work as a collective. They need to work in conjunction.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “And so, I think these data collection systems are going to become much more like iterative process engines of the future. And the ability to kind of task a system with collecting things that you need to make your training data set for your AI models better will change and it will iterate.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “But the answer to fix that was we need to go get a lot more photos and videos of Burger King signs and stop signs in all weather conditions and in all kinds of driving conditions and in all parts of the country. And then that's got to go back into our data set that we're training. Somebody's got to label all this and say, that's a stop sign. That's a Burger King sign, et cetera, et cetera. There's too much data to be able to kind of collect everything and send it back at once. You can ask the vehicle to go look for those cases where you think maybe that's a stop sign or maybe that's a Burger King. Send it back to us and we'll figure it out.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “I'm actually putting AI out there looking for specific use cases that I'm having trouble with. I think Tesla had a famous example of mistaking Burger King signs for stop signs. And, you know, Burger King, of course, made a hilarious commercial like the AI is so smart it knows what you want.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “So in the future, our roads and highways may be funded less from tolls on individual drivers and more on taxes on that burrito that an AV dropped off at your house. Let's take a step here from physical infrastructure to digital. Earlier, MCY's Greg Maguire cited that more than 80 million cars in the U.S. are now connected vehicles, able to send and receive data wirelessly. That makes them not only vehicles, but now something new, something Greg calls data engines. When we usually think about traffic data and infrastructure, we often go to the proverbial camera or sensor on a light pole in a city. But that's a fairly passive, not super intelligent system. It just collects everything it detects and uploads massive data sets to the cloud. But now, we have cars with cameras and radar, and LIDAR, and AI-enabled supercomputers. Alongside the passive system on light poles, we now have a fleet of hyperintelligent data scouts that can do way more than measure traffic light times.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “Exactly, and it finally raises interesting questions on what businesses are indirectly materially subsidized by transportation improvements that though benefit the entire community to the extent that you have a lower and lower proportion of roadway users being individual humans driving their own cars and instead businesses who are using that to deliver packages or to help get people from point A to point B and are making a profit from that is that a component in how people are thinking about what the revenue generation model in a post gas tax world looks like for transportation”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Autonomous vehicle take you where you need to go and then bring that back. So, what does that mean for car ownership Does that mean for how many non people trips are occurring? Because there's never a perfect balance of the trips that are drawn.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Ride share companies. Yeah, rideshare companies. Okay. And you say, what's that cost per mile? And right now it's not dissimilar to owning your own vehicle depending on how much you drive and amortization of your vehicle cost versus gas and all that. But relatively comparable to owning your own vehicle. If you take the driver out and it's now an autonomous vehicle, it's on par or less expensive than mass transit. Wow. And so you can easily imagine a world where kind of this dispatched autonomous vehicles becomes a majority of how people get around. And many two-car households might still keep one car for all the stuff with the kids and you have to go do things. But for your commute to work, the errands that you're running, it's less expensive to pull up an app, get it.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “An important view to keep in mind. New technologies can be massively effective solutions to one set of challenges, but that doesn't mean they don't bring a new set of challenges as well. It's been said that over its lifespan, the average car is parked 95% of the time. So if cars can start to reliably drive themselves, couldn't they be doing other things when we're not using them? Chris sees rideshare companies as an almost prototype for an autonomous future”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “And so then you go back to okay, we're shifting all of our transportation system into being electric. We're then shifting that plus the existing electric grid to renewables. And now we're going to make some of the transportation significantly more energy intensive. Well, it solves our road infrastructure problem, but it now exacerbates our electric grid infrastructure problem.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “On the electrification side of things, it would be far better for the freight industry to move to zero emission vehicles, not only because it would reduce pollution, but it would also replace fuel costs with far cheaper charging costs. But Chris points out how that evolution has some resulting knock-on effects, infrastructurally speaking, and things can get complicated.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “And so, can you do truck caravanning, where you might have one driver in the front and then seven vehicles that can safely follow nose to nose behind them to do a 500 mile run, and then you split back up to do independent driving at the end. Just that alone, taking seven 18-wheel semi-trucks goes from a mile of road space to 500 feet. Your road capacity, again, can go up massively from some of these early partial adoptions.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. “Walk Another key example of an industry that will be changed by electrification and autonomy, and in turn, that industry changes the world we live in. Freight. Autonomous systems could manage a long convoy of multiple trucks with far less space between them than human-led semis require.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. “Guess that speaks to the kinds of sort of low traffic or zero traffic zones that you get, and you've seen that in Europe certainly and in the UK. And of course, we're sitting here in New York City right now, which is also grappling with its own congestion pricing plan, right? But that you have to do something to reduce just the vehicles that are coming directly into it, reminds me actually of like, if you go to like a medieval city somewhere and you can't go, you have to park down at the bottom of the wall.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. “That create the idea of, oh, maybe we should transition people out of their cars at the urban periphery and find more effective ways of last mile transportation, whether it's a bike, whether it's a scooter, whether it's just getting on our two legs and walking. That would move cars out of city centers, particularly if non-human driven cars work even more poorly inside of cities. And not to say that technology won't improve, but you may have a state of the world where both what autonomous vehicles are good at is the long-distance driving outside of the city. So maybe we reconfigure cities to have fewer vehicles and more personal mobility options.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. “Changes are clearly in store for our highways, charging networks, and transportation budgets. But I also wanted to know how all of these changes actually affect the cities and towns we live in. What will it mean to be a driver or a pedestrian in places shaped by EVs and AVs? Autonomous cars may travel more densely and safely on highways, and EVs don't have any emissions, but a bunch of cars, even self-driving electrified ones, clogging a downtown intersection, is still a traffic jam. Do we need to rethink what kinds of vehicles go where? Elm”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. “We don't know yet for electric vehicles whether it will be the car manufacturers, the way that Tesla has been building out their charging infrastructure. Whether it may be retailers, so Walmart has entered into arrangements with some large charging providers to provide charging in some of their parking lots, or if it may be electric utilities that are looking at it as a way to either provide a service or to sell additional electricity.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. “Gas stations, for example. It wasn't necessarily a given that oil companies would own and operate roadside facilities to sell their fuel. It could have been that car companies would own gas stations to provide a service to their customers, or convenience stores would use it as a way to attract travelers to their business. But in an EV era, all bets are off.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. “We can quibble. Many rational people can have differences whether that's the right allocation or not, but that's the allocation we generally have today. And actually a large part of my work here at Goldman is structuring and arranging exactly these public-private partnerships and helping whether it's governments identify for new pieces of infrastructure for which they don't have prior expertise. Maybe they want to partner with the private sector to help do some component of design financing, operations, maintenance of that, or work with the private sector to help rehabilitate existing infrastructure projects.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. “When talking about infrastructure, it's important to note what's traditionally been handled by governments and what's been managed by the private sector. Here in the US, we've settled on a model in which the public sector builds and maintains roads and mass transit, while private companies have been in charge of things like electrical grids and the sale and distribution of gasoline.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. “Hard for users to be excited about that, and it's hard for politicians. They're like, so basically, you're telling me during the entirety of my term, life's going to be miserable for my constituents. I don't get to cut a ribbon. And the person succeeding me gets the credit for now the functioning infrastructure. Politically, why should I be for this? Even if you understand why it may be the right hundred-year decision in your two to four to six year window that you're thinking about your job, It can be really hard and scary.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. “More people that are driving electric vehicles, the less gas tax you have. So there are two simultaneous challenges of one identifying what the new streams of revenue will be that are available to make these generational investments in our infrastructure. And then two, getting the broader consensus around is that going to be tolls? Is it going to be taxes? If it's taxes, which taxes are they”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. “Timing is a big X factor in these kinds of decisions, but then there's the question of how do you fund all of these big changes. And that has more to do with the internal combustion engine than you may think. See, historically, it's been the case that, particularly in the US, most spending on transportation infrastructure has been funded through taxes on fuel. This gets trickier, though, if we're all driving EVs.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  28. “Are so many ways the future of transport can evolve, and MCIs where many of those questions are getting answered. But there's another set of questions to consider about our infrastructure and our transit networks. Who's going to build them? And who's going to pay for them?”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  29. “Also adds safety. The kinetic energy is a key component, the key component in terms of survivability of a crash. And so if we make our vehicles heavier as we electrify them, we will almost certainly move the safety needle in the wrong direction if we don't do other things at the same time.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. “One of the biggest obstacles to EV adoption is something that's called range anxiety. The idea that people are nervous their EV could run out of power while they're on a drive. But with this kind of charging technology, your car could be charging while it's moving. Deploy enough of these kinds of roads on well-trafficed routes, and range anxiety becomes a thing of the past. One place where Greg sees the technology being incredibly useful is in public transit. Buses, for example, could effectively become wireless streetcars, getting charged along its route, but still with the maneuverability of a traditional vehicle. And if you can charge along the way, well, there are other benefits too.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. “I mean, the irony of this system is that it doesn't look any different than a normal roadway. It's all underneath. So it's the road got a lot smarter, but it got smarter underneath. But what that opportunity, I think, offers for public transit, for reducing battery size and pack weight on public buses, for smaller microtransit systems, for logistics, for FedEx, UPS drivers as they're delivering packages in your office building and they're sitting on one of these sites outside. The vehicle that can be recharging. And so can we use fewer materials than on the actual vehicle in the future? Can we put more of that intelligence into the road network? We don't need to electrify every square mile of road in America, a tiny number to start with would have a huge impact.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. “You know how some of the latest smartphones can charge wirelessly? Same principle here. Coils of wire on the underside of a car can come into brief contact with coils of wire embedded in a road and create a transfer of energy, or charging.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  33. “About 30 acres, but it was built to represent the real world. So it looks like Most eerily like our towns and communities across the US. We've got nine signalized intersections and across walks and street lights and stop signs and everything that you're used to. It's regular infrastructure, just minus people.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. “In Ann Arbor, Michigan, over in the north campus of the University of Michigan lies M City, a research and development facility that is basically a giant lab for the future of mobility. It's where researchers, automakers, telecom companies, lawyers, government officials, really anyone who's connected to transportation come together and try to figure out the future. But what's maybe more interesting about MCity is that it includes, well, a fake town.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  35. “I'm Sam Grobart, Deputy Editor at Goldman Sachs, and this is the future of four wheels, a miniseries from the Exchanges podcast on what the electrification and automation of the car will mean for industries, investors, and the economy. This is part four of our four part series, How the Car of the Future will Change Our World. Disclaimer We're going to be referring to real companies, real brands, and real names throughout this episode, but none of it should be misconstrued as any endorsement of any company or person, and certainly none of it should be considered investment advice from Goldman Sachs. Okay, let's get back to it.”

    2024-02-01 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The Future of Four Wheels: Episode 4, How a New Kind of Car Will Change Our World · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT