YouSaid · the spoken record

Citrini7

lines on the record: 81
first: 2023-06-07
most recent: 2023-06-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“I think that if it got crazy again and it got totally disconnected from US rates and started spiking how it was last summer, then they would do FX intervention again. But I do think there's still some downside left on the yen as the market fully realizes that the differential, the bank of Japan is staying dubbish for now.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like Brune's three decades award. So he seems to be very measured about it. I can't blame him for that. It seems like the Japanese economy is finally picking up and that's kind of, I guess, Karota's legacy of a bunch of other stuff. I think that basically the way that yield curb control is going to be unland, it's not going to be how the market expects, just like with anything else in the bank of Japan, I think it'll take a lot longer. I was short. JJBs back in September when they did the first yield curve control adjustment. And now it's looking like probably the Japanese bond yields are going to say right where they are. And in terms of the yen, I think that right now the weekend is beneficial to Japan.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So in December back when Karota was here, I miss him. It was very straightforward in terms of what everyone thought was going to happen. I've been pretty bullish on Japanese equities just in terms of the differential between the rest of the world is tightening. Japan is keeping easy. And it seems like you wait a came into his position. And what I was expecting was not necessarily a quick policy normalization, but I was expecting a little bit more of a change, right? That he would do like SFSO or just anything to get away from yield curve control. But I think what I didn't realize necessarily or what I didn't attribute enough weight to was that inflation in Japan has been something that they have been trying to achieve for multiple decades. It's very difficult to be like if you're UEA, you want to just come in and be like, okay, we're normalizing policy now. It's cool. We got inflation back positive for the first time in forever. But let's see what happens when we wants to be that guy.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I recently got Long Oil, literally like 36 hours ago. It was like a late night, like, you know, I got in at about 60. I tweeted at like one in the morning. I was like, I'm going to go long oil a little bit. Just seemed like I was speaking to like oil traders and I was like, you know, what is going on? Is like the energy complex convinced we're having a recession? Because I'm not really seeing that. And, you know, it's like oil kept falling off a cliff. Meanwhile, like, you know, it just didn't line up with the whole process of picture. So they were like, I don't know. And it just seemed like a very washed out sentiment type thing. It seems like, you know, OPEC is apparently intent on making speculators ouchy. I don't necessarily know what that means. I guess I'll be on the side of OPEC for now. So I'm a long oil”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At the end of the day, it's all risk reward, right? It's how much money can you lose versus, you know, how much can you make? And if you don't understand that, then you're never going to make money trading just because if you just have your thesis and you're 100% convinced you're right, then maybe you even are right, but the market will not cooperate with that. So the reason that I've been successful is just risk reward. It has nothing to do with whether my macro theses have been right or not. I had some decent calls. Like I said, selling growth and brisk assets in late 2021. And I did catch like the summer bear market rally. But mostly, again, just risk reward.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, it's. A lot of it is just fading sentiment, right? Like the reason that I got long in October didn't have anything to do with what it had to do with was first off in the beginning, I was right for the wrong reason, right? I saw the Bank of England crack in terms of, you know, with the pension crisis in the end of September. And that was kind of like, okay, like maybe we're getting into an area where they have to start easing it back. And also, it just everyone was certain we were going to have a recession. Cyclicals were absolutely smashed. So it just seemed like, okay, even if we do have a recession, if I get long here, it seems like...”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Had great success in the past where it's like, oh, the macro is too confusing. I better like get out of the assets because everyone else can obviously some people know what's going on, but like on average, everyone else will be confused too.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the past, the times when I have been successful making decisions in stocks off macro, macro was not confusing at all. It was like, you know, very, very straightforward in the sense where I could pull up four most common macro indicators, like non-farm payrolls, GDP inflation rate, the initial job was fine. I don't have to delve deeper. macro decision of like the fed is going to raise rates. And you know, back in like the late 2021, the Fed is, there are hoofbeats of quantitative tightening. The Fed says they might have to raise rates. Inflation is ramping. It's been above 5% for the past few months. That's straightforward, you know. And that, yeah, sure bonds. Sell the risk assets, sell the equities.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I currently am bullish. I think that we could pull back would probably be natural. I think we Might see Maybe I'll pull back to like 4150 or something, but I don't, it's nothing that would stop me. You're bullish. Yeah, you're bullish.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you get to a level where something broke before, it's like on the old map, right? Like here be dragons. We don't know what happens if we go above that. It's just, they are in such a bad situation. It'll be very interesting to see if the ECB pauses and the Fed pauses. On one hand, it's very difficult for me to see the Bank of England continuing to hike. On the other, I don't want to see what happens to the Great Britain's inflation rate when if they pause just to follow the other global central banks, that'll be tricky.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, so I'm talking about four words, right? So that's what's really interesting to me because I But first off, I think the Bailey is not the most competent central thinker. If there was like a central banking competition to save my life, I would not want Bailey to be representing me. But I think that basically Yields on like a 10 year guild are nearing where they were when they had the pension prices. And the thing about that is”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, like the ECB might go off on its own and we might see like multiple meetings where the ECB hikes and the Fed doesn't and then Like after credit suis that they had a little bit of a tone change, and I don't think that's the case anymore. What I'm really interested to find out, you know, if you look at like the Bank of England and you kind of, if you look at where break-evens for linkers are trading real rates and forwards, real rates are basically like I think one or two years forward they're at like 30 basis points and then like five years forward they're at zero or so you know I have to look at that”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right now it's pricing in 70% chance of no hike in June and in two weeks. And so if that's true and they don't hike, then they won't hike in July for the reasons you said. And therefore, if the Fed does zero hikes from here, that means the ECB will do one rate hike. So that means the ECB will get to 3.5%.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I don't think so. The Fed to understand that once they stop, I really, okay, there is something to be said for when you're positioning yourself, right? It's important to not position on what you think the Fed should do, but position yourself on what you think the Fed will do, right, which are very different things sometimes most of the time. So in terms of the next FOMC, Really don't see a reason why I think they know once they stop, like that is, it would be very difficult in terms, you know, the Fed doesn't want to do something that the market isn't already pricing in. And once they stop, it's going to be very difficult to get the short-term interest rate futures to price in them starting hiking again. Right now it's pricing in.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so the feds, and that's what's being priced in, right? Now, because do you think the Fed does another one? Do you believe this whole skip that, okay, that we're going to skip in June and then we'll hike in July? Or is that just a little narrative?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You mentioned Christine Lagarde. Where do you think how high do you think the ECB hikes its rates to? And I guess what the terminal rate that's now being priced in What like 3.8%? And what is the let me see what the spot rate is? ECB deposit right now 3.25% now around there. And again, there's a lot of main refinancing, a lot of different things. As you know, but so it's at 3.25%. Market thinks they'll get to 3.8%. So two more hikes. Do you think they do more less or the market's right?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, a great, great history about dollar hatred through the years, right? And I don't see a scenario where the Renminby is like the world's reserve currency. I think that basically dollar hitry cycle. I also think that For a while, like Christine Lagarde fooled me, right? Like she came out and, you know, I was like hyped, right? Because I was long the euro at the time. And I'm like, Kristen Lagarde just had her dragging moment.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Banking is a lot different in Hawaii than it is in the continental United States in the sense that there's a lot less competition. And if these banks were to get into trouble, it would be very likely for someone to buy them out just because it's been a very difficult market for the larger big banks to break into. So that might offer you a margin of safety.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, but at the same time, it was super overblown. So that's the way I played it with the preferreds. I think that if you want to get involved in regional bank stocks, do your research, make sure that there are probably some good deals out there, but at the same time they could go lower. So I think I would probably I was long KRE. I sold it right around middle of this week. I think that it might have a little more upside left, but I think if you're going to play in regional bank stocks, you have to make the commitment to go after a name that you are willing to learn about. I think like Bank of Hawaii might be a good place to start.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And for like an 11% yield to maturity that a little while ago, I also picked up a couple different preferreds. I got first horizon back when the deal broke, I picked up First Horizon Series A for Horizon Series B, sorry for like $16.09. $16.99.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Contin I think that Okay, so bank stocks basically, regional bank stocks, right, are basically, I would probably stay away, if you were going to play it, I think that I do think that KRE. Might have put in a decent bottom back there around 35. I think the better way to play it was with the preferred stock. Obviously, there was a ton of upside on some of these names, but some of them are going to see their net interest margins compress. And it's going to be a very tough environment. It looks like the yell group's going to stay inverted for a little while longer, especially after the jobs for in today. And it just seems basically that I would like to be, I picked up Camera Straight Ponds. I think they're straight bonds.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that it's the rich problem? Yeah, rich, rich for sure. There needs to, I think yield should probably go higher. I would not be surprised to see yields retest their highs. About 4% on the tenure.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I don't think so. That's the thing, right? If I want to set up an LLC, basically I can do it myself, right? I can file for an employer tax identification number with the federal government, and then I file with my state to get articles of incorporation. And that's that. And LegalZoom will do that process for you. But it's a very straightforward process. And ChatGPT could fill out those forms for you, tell you where to send them, tell you where to submit them. And I think that that's, but again, very speculative with this kind of stuff. I have better things to be short, I think, than unless the company is significantly Like not in great shape otherwise, too.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. I don't know that much Python, but I asked GPT-4 to do it for me and it did it. And it works. I was paying someone to do that on Upwork before. And so that seems like a pretty significant loser. Just for example, like something like Legal Zoom. An attorney wrote a brief. Did you see that?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so yeah, basically, and Fiverr especially, right? Fiverr is like the reason it's called fiber is because it's not still like this. It's not all. But basically when it first started, it was pay someone five bucks to do a menial task for you, right? Like you need to format this spreadsheet or you need a quick graphic design job done. You need someone to write a very letter for you or something. You don't have time to compose personal letters to 20 different people. That's what Fiverr is and coincidentally that's also what ChatGPT is. So, I mean, you look at Cheg, right? Cheg kind of the first Perhaps like the quintessential AI loser, they basically had a product that enabled students to Cheap, I guess. It basically was the business model, right?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and I guess there is the element if you have a hardware business, those margins are sometimes not as good as the software business. So like Intel, they make a lot of stuff that's in Microsoft computers, but Microsoft's the one that makes all the money. And so some of these stocks are trading at a cheaper than these cloud businesses, that might make sense. But I mean, one time's earnings sounds pretty extreme. Tell me what the losers about this because companies that were SaaS businesses that traded at a high valuation over the past 10 years and deserve to because they were growing 30% a year and were profitable, even if it's on some adjusted metric or something like that, they seen you right about how some companies are actually going to get screwed over. Some companies will not be beneficiaries. They will be edged out of the way. What kind of companies are there?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It'll be very interesting to see how it affects capital flows. And if you think about the amount of computing equipment that needs to be purchased, it could be significant. It could significantly affect flows into the Taiwanese dollar and Taiwanese dollar is a significant funding currency for carry trades. So that could be an interesting There might be a blowout lurking under the surface in Taiwanese dollar.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, fabric too. And for example, just if we were going to say, you know, as far as Taiwan is concerned, I mean, there are some Taiwanese companies that are basically that are trading at like one times the last 12 months' earnings, like light on, then Actin, which Supplier, I believe that they are a direct supplier or Pegatron, right? Which makes the servers, the server racks. I mean, these companies are trading insanely cheap. And this is potentially a megatrend. It makes Basically, just open your computer. I mean, that was like really a very significant winning strategy in 2023, just like open your computer. And if there's a name in there, buy it. But it's interesting, right? Since this is a macro-focused show, If this does turn out to be as significant as I personally believe it is.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Geopolitical discount, yeah, you're earning the geopolitical risk premium. And, you know, I mean, and that's certainly something to consider, right? To close off the last thing that we were talking about, there are plenty of stocks that are US listed, right? Here's one that's probably cheap on a next 12 months, smart global holdings.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Price earnings ratio, yeah. I mean, free cash flow to enterprise value yield of 6%. That's better than the median market, right? So that's a perfect example. If you want to see an entire list of companies like this, that's basically what I publish on my subst, I think. I'll say that internationally speaking, Taiwan is a difficult market to buy single name equities and there's paperwork involved. But if you are so inclined, I think that the valuation difference between Taiwan and the United States for companies that are essentially identical in terms of potential upside for this theme, it's so significant as to almost be an arbitrage, right? Like you have companies that are so much cheaper.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What are some companies that trade at valuations that a value investor could get their mind around? And I think maybe was it Mike or a son, what was it called? God, what was the company that you were long that's done ridiculously well? Micro.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some people are wrong. So, yeah, like electoral component companies, right? Like Bellfeudes, vertive holdings makes liquid cooling. Units are very hot and they need to be cold. The tickers of VRT, that's another excitement about it doesn't mean everything surrounding it is expensive.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, this kind of comes back to what I said before, right? Like if you're an active manager and you're long not owning something is kind of a, you know, yeah. You're kind of expressing the viewpoint that what you own is going to go up more than me. And that might be a rational thing to express on NVIDIA just because the forward expected returns after such a significant might not be as significant. But at the same time, that doesn't mean you had, you know, can you imagine people think that dot com bubble and they think of like, you know, 1998, 1989. And again, I'm not saying that that's necessarily what's going to happen here, but I feel like what we're looking at is a massive trend in technology that the market is starting to acknowledge. And can you imagine from 94 to 1999 and you're just like, can't do it. Some microsystems is too expensive. That would suck. So you can, you know, like there are so many companies involved in this.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Longer than probably anyone else in this industry. I'm relatively certain he'll be the richest person in the world at some point during the next decade. And I just, I think that obviously is it a wise move as an investor to brush in and buy something that's up $120 or whatever, off the lowest. Yeah, exactly. Is that wise? No. But is it?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everything that NVIDIA is doing is primed to take advantage of this. The products that they have, the newest supercomputer, the Grace Hopper 200, right? I mean, 256 graphics cards. They've made excellent acquisitions like with Melanox. Another point is I put that whole basket out and I included a spreadsheet with it where you can look at the valuation multiples. And they're not all like that, right? There are companies that benefit from this trend that are not trading at 200 times price earnings. Right now, I don't think that it is at 200 times price to earnings for the next 12 months. The reason NVIDIA trades that high is because it is executing so well. You know, Jensen has been talking about accelerated computing and parallel computing for”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's a big reason, right? Semiconductors are cyclical and just like any other cyclical naming of it, when they bottom and they start going up again on a less whole month basis, it doesn't look that attractive. I watched the keynote from Jensen Wang and really.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They are profitable. Some of them have an okay valuation, some of them are very, very expensive, tend to be profitable with, of course, many exceptions. How are you feeling about these valuations where NVIDIA before COVID had a price-earnings ratio of 20? Wow. Then it went up to 100 in late 2020. It sank down to price earnings ratio of 37 in October for around 40. Now it has a price-to-earnings ratio of 200. That would be like an interest rate, you're earning 0.5% return every year. So let's say the Treasury bills yield 5%, their earnings, the price to earn ratio of treasuries is 20. So the price ratio of Navidia is 200. So you're paying 10 times more. And it's riskier. So tell me, walk you through how you own something that's so richly valued.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Market is telling And yeah, no one is long this stuff. You don't have people who are launching AI ETFs yet. I mean, actually, I think there is one, and there could be more, but they've existed for a little bit now. You can get so much more frothy than this. That's my point to the audience. Remember that I do know nothing about the actual fundamentals, but these stocks, unlike the stocks that were, let's say, in ARC, you know, do trade at a”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Yeah, I feel like. Bubbles in something where there's really nothing to it, they last like three weeks, a month. But I feel like if you have a bubble where there actually is something to it, it typically lasts longer than that.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It worked, you know, and as I got into it, it became very clear that Alpha had kind of cracked this, it's not like conspicuous consumption, right? Like you don't put a lipstick on or you're not using a type of makeup and everyone automatically, you know, oh, that's Louis Vuitton, right? There aren't going to be little LVs. Right. Well, you know, maybe there's a specific color or something like that, but regardless of the thing, right? They seem to have cracked higher quality and at the same time brand loyalty and then also at the same time achieve a price point than their competitors, which is kind of the perfect way to capture this whole lipstick effect trend. The lipstick effect within the lipstick effect. And so that's just an example, right? And that's what I'm doing with AI. I've compiled this bad.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. So I put together a basket of cosmetic socks. I went in and did the same thing you do with any individual stock, but just on a broader basis, making sure that they were beneficiaries of this trend that I thought was going to happen. Alta Elf Beauty obviously was the biggest winner. And”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's see. So, when the cost of living goes up or people's incomes go down, whatever. So in real terms, people's lives are getting harder. Their actual spending power goes down. People will buy money, spend money on things that are nice and maybe a little bit pricey, but are not actually expensive. Like, so instead of buying a new car, it costs $20,000, $40,000, $60,000, they're just going to buy like a really nice thing of lipstick, which I don't know how much lipstick costs, what, you know. $50. I don't know. But sure.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Asked me earlier about the way that I invest, and I'm good at recognizing what I'm not good at, right? I've never been like sometimes you get lucky, right? But when it comes to narratives that are affecting like single names, I'm not I'm not very talented at that, but what I do take advantage of with trends are, you know, you can create a basket, basically. You create your own ETF, right? So another example of something that the economy started weakening, In the summer of last year, I was looking for something to take advantage of the fact that inflation had, you know, kind of made the cost of living higher. And at the same time, maybe there was a recession on the horizon. People were going to earn less, people were going to be out of work. There's something called the lipstick effect. Are you familiar with it?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But if you need a brand ambassador and you're spending all this money on marketing, I raised a lot of questions for me. And I mean, so many examples, flying plane companies, they're not going to projecting that in, you know, they're going to make certain amount of money way far in the future. And investment analysts are like, well, actually, they're trading pretty cheap relative to 20 to 20, 30 EBITDA, you know, enterprise value to right. And then, yeah, so I'm saying I don't see that now. Yes, NVIDIA is up 180% year over year. I mean, definitely not a cheap stock. But a lot of the companies that you've written about on Twitter, and I assume you're investor either invested in or you're bullish and you don't own it.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, I agree with you, and I'll give you an example from a spec that I followed pretty closely. It was a gaming spec, unprofitable. And of course, and they made all these promises what they're going to make in 2027. And they had Snoop Dogg as a brand ambassador. And I'd invest with Snoop Dog. I mean, I think he's a very smart guy. Absolutely.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The unit economics are straightforward. There's a physical thing you can touch. Software I have a difficult time with, but this I think it's a little different. And also to something you said earlier, the.com bubble, there were companies that came out that just, what do you even do? You have no revenue. You're not even really a company. Can you name anything that's happened in regards to like ChatGPT came out at the end of last year? Spend almost six months now. I don't see anything that makes me think, oh, God, you know, the hype is insane.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure, upstart, right? Like, why would upstart be worth so much more than the traditional alternatives? Or I just laid out. Right. Yeah, Monday.com, right? It's like, and I'm not saying that I respect the analyst to like understand what was happening there. I didn't at all. But when it comes to semiconductors and when it comes to the data center and it's not, I don't view it the same way. With supermicrobe, for example, that they are basically manufacturing boxes, assembling boxes so that other companies that need to put things in these boxes can, they're a box seller. They make the server the GPUs go into, that's what SuperMicro does. They make the chips.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I sympathize with that because I don't understand a lot. I'm not super well versed in technology either. And I felt that way, I really felt that way when it came to like, you know, in 2021 with the software as a service companies, right? I did not understand what these companies did. What would be the example of?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Technology stocks and specs. I'm not a technology guy. I'm a finance guy. I'm a podcastter. And I'm also not a biotech guy at all. So these things are way over my head. And this type of thing, like even though I analyze macro, I always try and look at individual companies. And most companies are not that hard to understand the basic business model. Obviously, so many complexities within, but it's like, oh, we get money from depositors at 1%. We lend it out at 4%, make that spread. We pay our employees, boom, boom, we go home. Oh, we're a shipbuilder. We buy steel and we put it in the ships. We sell the ship. Chipotle. These types of things. When I look at the investor decks for all these companies, and I think most of this has to do with my noviceness as a technology person, like I really don't understand what all these companies are doing, I'll be honest.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Traded very richly. Yeah. And then you had the real BS stocks, pet.com is the classic example of basically no revenue. And I don't know if Pets, you know, it was trading off eyeballs. Eventually, it gets ridiculous. And we were there in late 2021 for a lot of.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT