YouSaid · the spoken record

Citrini7

lines on the record: 81
first: 2023-06-07
most recent: 2023-06-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And it started with companies that had good unit economics that were either profitable or they were to the extent that they were unprofitable, it was because they could be profitable, but they just wanted to grow and focus on growing. And Microsoft was a high quality company.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't want to be the pied piper here and say that I'm certain that AI is going to be change the entire world and I'm not fanatic about this but what I am is a trader and I don't ignore a trend when it's staring me right in the face. I'm not going to fight something that if you do simple analysis, right? Is there a potential for this to be another dot com level? Is there a potential for this potentially game changing technology to cause a significant amount of growth in this specific sector? Yes, right? And we've seen how that looks before. You can look at 1994 to 1999 because people refer to the dot combo, but really it was the personal computing revolution started in the mid-90s. it ground up it just went up right at the very end it goes parabolic and that's probably when you say you know maybe back off right but”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Google Apple for sure, but Google, Salesforce, and then Facebook. I mean, Meta is trading at a PE ratio of something like nine, whereas there are chicken wing companies that have a. He's kind of ridiculous. He had the PE of 50 or”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's really insane because you remember end of the year ahead forecasts and like the entire sell side is like this is the stock pickers market. This is the year of active management. And then it's like no, immediately wrong. It was an extreme incentive in that the way that Apple was trading at the end, I'm not saying it was super cheap or whatever, but the way it was trading was just hated. Obviously some of it probably had to do with tax loss harvesting, but it just Google.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This pottery pottery company, I'm going to own this auto lender. This stocks that are no one's really ever heard of. And because they're so smart, those stocks are supposed to go up more than Apple, right? Well, it doesn't happen. Apple goes up more. And this year, that's exactly what has happened. I mean, I think it's been quite historic.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So people may be confused, but when you say that long only are underweight technology. So first of all, let's say the entire market is not overweight or underweight everything. Everyone is adequately weighted to everything in general. When you say long only, I think you mean active managers who want to differentiate themselves from the index. And, you know, you've heard the pitch before and it sounds convincing and there are good arguments for it, but the data for active equity management is not super strong. Most active equity managers underperform the index. And they do so by saying, oh, Apple is 7% of the S&P, Microsoft's 5%. I'm not going to own those. I'm going to own.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But it's the same dynamic, right? In that they are getting squeezed because a long only allocator is going to basically there is a decision to make when you are holding certain things, right? And when you decide to hold those things instead of other things. You're basically so short, those other things, especially if they're continually going up and you're not participating.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The macro environment, and that's painful, right? But the thing is, when you have a short position on the position can go against you only so long before you blow up and no longer exist. But if you are long only and underperforming, that can go on for much longer time before you capitulate. So it's kind of like a rolling short squeeze.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it's something Absolutely, yeah, the feeling that I get that long only funds or like long money is very, very underway technology. And it seems like that has been changing, but it's kind of like gradual, right? Like a capitulation, almost like a short squeeze. Like the long only side is getting a short squeeze because every single day you're making a decision whether if you're holding on to something, you're making a decision to buy it. If you're not buying something, you're essentially making a decision to sell it. You don't think that it's going to outperform the things that you're in. So you have these long only managers who will, if they were successful, wrote a massive trend in technology for almost a decade. And now the same things that were so successful are working so soon after they have changed their portfolio to be more aware of valuations.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But at the same time, since this is potentially a megatrend, right? I can weight the barbell with an optimistic view of technology. And it's been working, right? I had some actually both sides or both the barbell and the weights are working right now. I think that right now basically a lot of investors are just afraid to see something new and shiny and go for it, right? Because it's failed so many times. 5G, Internet of Things wasn't that promising. Blockchain cannabis. There are these phases, right? But eventually a phase comes along and it's not a phase. A dot-com bubble was a bubble, right? But the internet didn't. Go away. And if you were buying early, I mean, it doesn't really matter if you bought Apple at the top of the.com bubble at the bottom or Microsoft. It doesn't really. So I think that if you hold for”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The way that I'm playing this, I think a good way to describe this is like an optimism barbell, right? Like I have my concerns on the macro situation right now. And I think that there are very valid concerns. Also, there are potential risks that the market isn't pricing at all. What if inflation re-accelerates? The economy is housing, for example. Prices are starting to tick back up again. And that is not necessarily what the Fed wants to see. So there are a lot of macro risks right now, but I think that it actually just contributes to this opportunity because I can have on positions that might maybe not benefit or the recession resilient or they're, you know, I can express that pessimism.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You look at companies like Google or Adobe or the companies that are going to take AI and put it in the hands of people. Finally, you get to face through what people will specialize and integrate it. And it will see increasingly specific use cases. And there are some specific use cases now like the company Schr ⁇ dinger or Absolera. They are using artificial intelligence to for drug discovery, right, deducing structure activity relationships in new chemicals. And that's kind of, I mean, first off, that's amazing. Any biotech investor that's listening to this, like you know how much R&D, how much spending is done just finding the molecules, just finding the structure that's going to work. And imagine that process is streamlined. I think here's the thing I don't”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“First phase is obviously like a data center hyperscale, right? The data centers are the bottleneck in this situation. They have to, every single company, developer, startup that decides they want to use artificial intelligence or machine learning, that's more computing power that's necessary. So that needs to scale first. That's the gate. And that, I think, represents the best place to be. Phase two, there's going to be the implementation. Now do I want to be long the names that are implementing AI? Talent here is one of them. That's huge. That would have been nice to be long, but I don't know if in two years it's going to look the same way it does. I don't know if they're still, you know.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of AI, machine learning, deep learning as a technology, I think that's amazing. And your rewards are going to be absolutely insane. Like buying Apple right before they release the iPhone when parabolic or buying Microsoft before they release Windows or buying Google before they won the search wars. I mean, but the thing is I'm not advanced enough to know what that is. The best risk reward for me is to say, who are going to be the people that build the rails that this technology goes along? And it's the data centers. And that's, you know, I wrote a piece recently that I sent to you about trying to find out who the biggest beneficiaries of this are. And I lay out kind of a framework, basically three phases, right? And it's not linear. These phases aren't going to happen one after the other.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it was trading two or three times its free cash flow. It was very, very, very cheap. And then I held it. The position was probably up, I don't know, 100% or so. And that's when ChatGPT came out, when I saw it, I was like, this is kind of a big deal. So I was going through my portfolio to kind of see, you know, and that kind of got me to learn a little bit more about this. And the fact that it is a beneficiary because data center, you know, we're not going to completely get rid of CPU computing. We're just going to, you know, we need more GPU servers. Supermicro makes those servers. So that kind of got me thinking about what is the best risk reward in this entire space. And the best risk reward, obviously, if you right now can predict who is going to be the biggest benefit.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I still am in the business of finding things that are trading cheaper than what their true value is. And I bought a company called Super Micro Procure. And it had had, it was very contraring at the time that I bought it. It had some accounting irregularities, which is the touch of death in the stock market, right?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's what you might have heard the term like terraflop or exaflop, F-L-O-P floating point operations, right? It's like calculating. And this is why it was used in cryptocurrency, but a lot of the cryptocurrency miners, they're specifically for cryptocurrency, regardless. Just by the nature of this existing means that data centers are going to have to change and grow exponentially to accommodate its use, right? That is what I'm focusing on. The thing that brought me to this was not I wasn't like seeking out for a new type of innovative technology. I was pretty pessimistic about innovation after obviously that funds rate is at 5%. And we might be going into a recession. We might not be. But the thing is.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, and users and developers, right? But so here's the thing. I'm not smart enough to know what the world looks like in two years. I don't know where this technology is going to be most beneficial. I don't know where it's going to be most harmful. All I know is that it exists and the nature of it existing inherent to artificial intelligence and machine learning is the fact that it takes an intense amount of computing power, right? It's a new paradigm in computing in that, you know, if you have a CPU or you have a CPU, a CPU can do a lot of tasks, but not side by side. It can make a ton of calculations very complex, but it's limited by the number of threads it has, the number of processes, whereas the GPU, right, can”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, your question, what is different in two years time or three years' time because of artificial intelligence or machine learning? I don't know. I have no clue. All that I know is that artificial intelligence and machine learning exist. They are accelerated computing and parallel computing is a new paradigm in computing. And just by the fact that it exists, it's growing at 2,000% year over year if you annualize it. Nothing, this is a quote directly from Jeff Bezos. Nothing grows at 2,000% year over year.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, how does this actually change the game? Something NVIDIA skyrockets, how does that, what is going to be different? What is different in this new world where artificial intelligence has reached, as you say, a tipping point that is different from 2018? Why should these stocks be trading at 70 times earnings instead of 20 times earnings?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, that's, and everyone is talking about how they got to buy GameStop, huge retail. Everyone wants to talk to you about stocks and the next hot thing. We're not there yet. And I think you're absolutely right. And that's why I think. You know, I have a feeling my own suspicion is that, yeah, these stocks could continue to go higher. And I don't know enough about the fundamentals, but that's just kind of my observation. So I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I just, you know, for the sake of argument, I want to play the role of a skeptic because I know there are a lot of skeptics out there. So Catrini. So this whole chat GBT, it gets popular. You know, everyone who was into crypto in 2021, suddenly they're AI genius expert and they're all talking about this.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, yes, I suppose you're right. If you get out near the top, right? But at the same time, if you're talking about a bubble in, oh, that's a bubble. There were facts, right? That were trading at 100%. I mean, that's.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The peak was in 2021, and then it faded out. But you know how trading is? And I mean, you're probably better at trading than definitely me and the average person and probably a lot of people listening. But like, you know how hard it is. No, you know, you never.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You pull up a chart of like arc innovation. Something right how long was, if you caught the beginning of Ark's parabolic rise, right? How long was it going down for before it went below your cross basis?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. Well, firstly, right, even if it is a bubble, it's a relatively new bubble. And catching a bubble is the best possible financial decision being long in the beginning of a bubble is the best financial decision you can make in your entire life. Just because it's always amusing to me when you say, okay, if you get out in time, I mean.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now you have a genuinely promising technology that AI and machine learning are not new. They've been around for quite some time. It's just that they have reached a tipping point. Things can exist for a very long time and then they enter the public zeist and the public consciousness. And what occurs is they experience exponential growth, right? is what I call like corporate FOMO. If your biggest competitor is implementing artificial intelligence and machine learning and deep learning, you're going to too. I'm sorry, I got one off at a tantra. The original question was.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. Technology growth sucks, innovation. Then what happened is in every bubble and they kind of deflated and nobody can really watch an investment lose 70% of its value and not have a psychological impact. And I was also very bearish on technology for all of 2022. Inflation that had to raise rates and that was that. Sometimes it's as simple as that. But the thing is.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Then he just picked up a book that was. Soros, everything he's written is like a great framework for how to view bubbles and bursts. He has a famous saying that when I see a bubble forming, I rush in and add fuel to the fire. And that's not irrational. It's interesting right now because there's this dynamic in the market that is almost like post-traumatic stress disorder, like post-traumatic acid inflation disorder. Growth was such a major, major theme for a decade, right?”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Treasury market is going to tell you a little bit about what's happening in the equity market, but also internationally, right? Where's the money going, where just that's basically what I do? And I don't think I'm very, I'm not great at like talking about my process, but I mean, you've seen some of the trades. A good example, I think, is the Silicon Valley Bank thing, right? Like I am a generalist at heart and I'm not a bank analyst, but I think that also The way that I came into this wasn't through Wall Street. I don't necessarily have a financial background, but I was approaching it from, I had a portfolio that was very, very levered to the fact that we weren't going to have a recession. And I needed a position that was going to offset that kind of not recession exposure. So where do you look, right? Well, the banks. So, you know, I went through and that's how I ended up finding sort of.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Developed a framework for investing that captures my fascination with markets, right? In every single market, they're all interwoven and I have basically the philosophy that originally it was just me managing my own money and my philosophy was if I find a dollar selling for 50 cents, I'm going to pick it up and then when COVID happened and I didn't take a drawdown during March 2020 and some of the people in my network got kind of interested in me running money. So now it's very tight-knit, which is me and a couple people. But that's basically what I've been doing. And my framework is essentially use of approach to get hints about different markets, right? Obviously, we know what's happening in the bondage.”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Great to be on, Jack. The answer to my investing style is everything, and the answer to the kinds of assets I invest in is everything. Basically, I started this about five or six years ago. I sold my business and got, you know, I was instantly enamored with the market, right? My business was in a very, you could call it a bubble, right? Like a frothy sector. And I sold essentially at the top, right? It went public. And I sold at the top essentially. generally watched as, you know, it was a 90% cash, 10% stock deal. But I watched as the stock basically tripled my net worth and then immediately cut it in half. So that's kind of like a life experience where you're like, what happened, right? And I started, you know, getting more interested in managing money. Basically”
2023-06-07 · Forward Guidance · Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT