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Dylan LeClair

lines on the record: 81
first: 2023-11-07
most recent: 2023-11-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“No, I appreciate you having me on. I think it's our third riff together, maybe. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, I'm just on Twitter at Dylan Declare underscore a notice or two, I admittedly got to get on there a bit more. I'm doing some stuff with UTXO management these days, among other things, including some stuff with on-ramp. I know you just talked with Jesse Myers recently. Have a small part there. They're doing some cool stuff. And in the face of all the Black Rocky TF stuff, I think have a pretty novel Bitcoin native solution. So yeah, again, I appreciate you having me on. This is always fun. An hour and a half went by quick.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's not just this like unintangible digital asset that's synthetic like it is, but there's a marginal energy input cost. Like that's the same reason why commodities have value. And so it's the first, Bitcoin's the first thing that has a completely inelastic supply relative to demand with an input cost. And that's like, I mean, that's the golden goose, in my opinion. That's like the aha moment of like, oh, crap, this thing is becoming increasingly harder to produce forever. That's the magic aha moment that I don't think many people have had. And I think it's a bit ironic that you would purposefully kill that. But that's a different discussion entirely.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bitcoin, like Bitcoin's intangible asset, has an exchange rate, but it's not intangible, right? Because it takes me $40,000 to produce Bitcoin if I go mine Bitcoin in my garage and plug it in, or, you know, probably $60,000 per Bitcoin or whatever my energy input costs are. Like there's a tangible aspect to that.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of a dynamic buyer or demand for that energy, the commoditization of that is and the convergence of the energy markets is probably the most fascinating thing. One point I'll add, just kind of going back a bit to the VM thing, and this is just kind of a side point. And this is just my personal opinion. But I think it's quite ironic that seemingly peak ESG, low oil prices peak ESG narratives can't really quantify it, but Ethereum and it's somewhat kind of not, you know, it kind of had its network effect of its own in terms of a smart contract chain, if you want to call it network, went from proof of work, right, which directly tied to that real world energy input into a proof of stake kind of just completely virtual environment, right? Where the very thing that”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's a good thing, right? Because this is just increasing the energy efficiency everywhere that it's leveraged. Bitcoin's not wasting energy on the ERCOP grid. It's actually all the green energy stuff, right? Where I'm going to a bunch of solar panels and wind energy. without something to balance the load, right? Without something to absorb that excess supply when there is no demand. And so, you know, explaining that nuance is obviously one another thing entirely. But Bitcoin, I guess you could argue AI too, right? Yeah.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The edge case hyper efficient miners, you know, like there's people that are heating saunas and heating spas with ASICs, right? And that heat isn't going to waste. That heat and that energy is actually, you know, the byproduct of that is being used to heat things, right? There's like so many use cases that like nobody has thought of. And as that difficulty gets cranked higher, hash rate continues to go up and the block subsidy continues to ratchet lower that efficiency in aggregate, which is impossible to measure like what's the average energy input cost for the Bitcoin network. We can quantify a lot of things. We can't quantify that. We can kind of guesstimate it. Well, that trend is just going to continue of like increased efficiency where I can't make money mining Bitcoin on my laptop. You used to be able to.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fantastic point. I just marvel it. It's not understood. That point of like. You'll be, oh, what's going to happen in the next halving when their revenues get cut in half as if it's like a gotcha? And it's like, well, what's going to happen is the inefficient commercial miners that are mining on grid energy are going to go under or they're going to have to sell and who's going to be mining is like someone in the middle of the North Dakota Bakkin who has free energy because they're flaring with natural gas or some like excess free energy and some hydro dam that has way too much you know, has way too much energy and no one to buy it. Like this process of mining and whatever you want to assumptions you want to bake into like what fees are going to be in the future or Bitcoin price you can do like Bitcoin denominated assumptions or dollar denominated. This is going to be commoditized and the winners aren't going to be these massive scale consolidated mining operations. It's going to be, you know,”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that being sold to someone that's interested in providing liquidity on the other side. So it's like very niche, right? I expect, but I expect in the next cycle that hopefully, obviously human psychology takes hold, but I think there will at least be another tool for all these mining operations in an extremely cyclical business to hedge risk out because all of them were levered long, they're levered long Bitcoin, their operation by very definition is leverage long Bitcoin, the ASIC collateralized loans, the whole nine yards. And so this is just another tool for them to mitigate some risk. And even in, like, say, the having comes Bitcoin's price is going sideways. Who knows, right? Like a lot of these miners will be pretty hurt instead of having to go raise or dilute their stock price. In theory, I could just sell some future Bitcoin production and raise liquidity there, which is an avenue that hasn't existed previously.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And risk as you want to call it of like maybe just thinking about volatility of the hash rate, right? Like there's we don't know what the future difficulty is. There's an assumption baked in. There's obviously a discount of what they're selling that future hash rate, what the price is, right? So there's a discount based on how credit worthy or not or how risky or not that purchase is or that mining operation is selling it as. So in a similar way, like I'm not going to lend to a junk corporation at Fed funds plus 100 BIPs. I'm going to lend to them at that funds plus 500 or whatever like that junk kind of credit rating scale is. There's a similar thing happening with hash rate production.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then it can't be done in a trustless way, right? Like there can't be a trustless market where I could go in and sell my future hash rate because what if I just don't deliver, right? What if I just turn off my A6 and sell it? There has to be, there is a, like this isn't like this decentralized sort of thing, but I would kind of compare it to basically a credit market, right? Where there's trusted institutions that are involved in this. It's a swap. There's no risk being eliminated.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Device, but it's a Bitcoin denominated capital market for a Bitcoin native commodity in the sense of a hash rate settled. So that's really interesting. It's very small Don't talk about it too much, but it's something I'm keeping my finger on the pulse there.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That hash rate production to be. So I can buy, I can be a buyer of your future hash rate a 10% discount or a 15% discount. So this allows for two things. One, in a brutal bear market, you can come in and I can, instead of raising debt in a frozen debt market or selling equity, I can sell future hash rate production in Bitcoin-denominated terms to raise liquidity. Or in a euphoric up only bear market where everybody's rich, everything's exploding, I can hedge, sell some future hash rate production, get back Bitcoin, and maybe I sell the Bitcoin, maybe I don't. That idea is still very niche. It's still very small. It's niche in a small sector. But I know Block Green's working with a few companies. I know Luxer's working really hard. They got a really smart team. And so that's exciting for me is because, one, it's a Bitcoin denominated futures market. All right. That's technically not a futures market. It's more of like an OTC style head.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Whereas Block Green has a, and the age old question is who's the buyer of a hash rate derivatives contract? Because other than it's maybe a speculator, meaning who's the buyer of hash rate and how do you's a natural buyer of future hash rate, especially in a scenario where you continue to expect it to go higher and higher? And so the block green model is doing it in a Bitcoin denominated way that every single contract, like there's a ton of disclosure, there's a ton of transparency. You know, I know your balance sheet. I know your power prices. I know your operational efficiency, your previous basic uptime. And I can come in and say we expect difficulty to be X, right? There's some assumption baked in. Well, similar to kind of like a bond market where there's a credit rating system and a yield excess of the risk-free rate. Well, similar to that, there's on the other end, there's basically lower and lower discounts to what you would expect that fair value or that.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Versus the price went down 80%. So is this max pain scenario where their hash price minor revenue per terahash got decimated? And I think one of the more interesting things out there is the advent of a hash rate derivatives marketplace So there's like a couple companies doing this, Luxor's doing it, as well as Lock Green, different models. But Luxor has quite literally a hash price futures curve.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Here's something it's a little bit niche, but I think it's pretty fascinating. Last cycle, you saw a lot of the miners, which again, the mining industry, the Bitcoiners talk about it a bunch. There's now kind of an investment landscape around it. There's like 20 or so public companies, 10 billion market cap or so, maybe 15. I'm not sure at the top of my head. But basically, almost all of them were close to blowing up at the bottom of the cycle. I know a bunch survived, but they were all levered long, they're ASICs. ASICs collateral, Bitcoin, Bitcoin collateralized loans, no own hedge. Everyone was doing a huddle model. And it was max pain scenario. Difficulty and hash rate went up tremendously, right? Hash rate, all-time highs. I think like, what was that? The high, it was like 150x a hash or 180x a hash, and now it's like 400 something, like just crazy mind-boggling.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Great question. Well, I don't think I have too much to add about the ETS and stuff. I think a lot of that stuff's been covered both on both sides of like this is hyperbolish or like the downsides of like, oh, well, is my not going to get approved for X, Y, and Z.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, that's built, right? And some, you know, the truck's models aren't, some of them are more centralized than others, right? Of course. But all of that stuff is coming for sure. And it's going to be, you know, it's going to get faster, better, safer, more secure, and less centralized, more trustless. So it's quite exciting.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That were interested in the weeds of all the technical stuff happening on the altcoins because, again, Bitcoin was this boomer rock that nobody could develop on or do anything with. We are all saying like, oh wow, this makes me question a lot of the underlying assumptions I had about Bitcoin and the quote unquote investment thesis, quote unquote, of these altcoins, et cetera. So I think you're going to see a massive amount of like mindshare come back to Bitcoin. If not, it's already happened, especially, you know, as the trillions of dollars of capital come in here, it's going to be really, really exciting. I don't think we can imagine what was going to be built, right? Like there's, you know, when Lightning came out 2008, I mean, it was developed for a while, but post-segWit, it gets rolled out on mainnet 2018. Could you have thought, you know, four years later, five years later, that we have like lightning backed stable coins, right? USV synthetic stable coins and derivative markets on Bitcoin, trading futures and all this other stuff.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Instead of a crypto casino, it's a stock settlement platform with Bitcoin integrated at the base layer. Like, again, that sounds super, hyper unrealistic. And I'm just kind of throwing out an idea. But all these things that were previously never able to be built unless there was a centralized infrastructure at the center of it can now, in theory, right, with a virtual machine, with essentially infinite compute, can be built. So what's going to be built? I have no idea. And that's the most exciting thing is that someone refigured out the implementation of it, not we. I didn't certainly. Some really smart people did. But that's where it's exciting. And again, I have no idea what comes of it, but there's going to be a Cambrian explosion of activity on Bitcoin. And I've seen personally just side channels, back channels on Twitter. A lot of the people in the altcoin space that have left that letter they were developers or even just speculators or followers, investors.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, no worries. I think it's a great point. And so I don't think we can imagine what's going to be built in terms of whether it's, again, whether it's derivative markets or like lending markets, right? And whether that's exciting to you or not is a question. But also if you think about just Bitcoin being integrated with the global financial system and everybody was like, well, you see, like it can never work because the seven transactions per second and it will never scale for a global economy and block subsidy and Bitcoin's going to be insecure and like, well, what if we abstract a bunch of this stuff to higher layers that all has the trust out of the loop, right? And we can have a trust list verification, whether that's a lightning implementation and channels to just for just micropayments or value transfer or more complex smart contract languages where we can do the things like the integration with imagine if we have a bitmax but”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“more so that Bitcoin itself has extremely strong trustless elements to it, decentralized trustless elements. Like, I don't have to trust my counterparty. You send me Bitcoin. I don't have to trust you. It's verified. And so now, if we have.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Coming up to him, and I'm only following 50% of the convo. And it's like, wait, how does this work? And eventually, like literally, I was at the bit devs. There's four core developers at this bit devs. And Robin does an hour presentation explaining the white paper piece by piece. Someone raises their hand and goes, wait, so what's the point of this again? And it was funny to me because I was like, these are like literally like the giga brains of the world and there's so much complexity and technical jargon here that it's hard to follow. And so, but the real exciting thing is once people kind of get the basics of it and they're going and doing a hacker house and getting this language built out and documentation and specs, I think there's going to be a Cambrian explosion of innovation and development on this sort of stuff. And not, again, not that the exciting thing for me is like a Uniswap where you just swap valueless tokens and whatever. Like I don't care about that.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, it's not. But there's a bunch of cool people that are saying, oh, hey, like we have this immutable decentralized database essentially, Ledger. Well, what if we put the WikiLeaks files on Bitcoin forever? Like, what if we do the, and it's there forever? So, again, I don't think that's the most interesting thing for this. I think the most, you know, the biggest market in the world is global money. But I think the point I'm getting at is that basically two years after Tappert was rolled out, we see things that nobody had thought was, like people thought this BitVM style implementation was. It was never achievable. And so now once it was launched, you had a whole bunch of people, even like the smartest guys in the world. I saw like on this stuff, core developers, you know, Adam Back, right? They're like, wait, how does this work? And I saw Robin the whole time were at Amsterdam or in the back room. And people.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I mean, I don't have a very nuanced take there. I think the really interesting thing is the taproot was rolled out November timeframe 2021. And for a while, it was like, you know, there was somewhat of a narrative, whether it was trolling or not, it was like, oh, this thing was, yeah, that was stupid, worthless, right? It was like why you didn't even need that thing. And then ordinals came out. And then like, again, I don't think speculating on JPEGs is the most interesting thing in the world or, you know, BRC20 tokens, which was literally a JSON file to transfer a synthetic token that was valueless or useless on a blockchain. Like that's not exciting for me. But the cool thing was in the Ethereum NFT is essentially like an image file linked to a website. Well, like actually within with the ordinal protocol, you actually saving it on the blockchain. So is it computationally efficient?”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On chain, and we all, you know, of course, because of the incentives, the monetary and economic incentives, they all need their own token. And the beautiful simplicity of BitVM, which again, I should reiterate hasn't been not even close to fully realized yet. But essentially, they're like, oh, wait, we can do trillions of terabytes worth of computation off-chain and boolean logic and logic gates and yada, yada, yada technical stuff. And then we can boil it all down into one Bitcoin transaction and settle.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the spectrum of like decentralization or scalability kind of gets blended where it's, you know, they all claim to be decentralized, but they're all not, right? Like, I don't know anybody that's running a Solana node, right? And you can say it's important or not people have these debates of like how much decentralization is needed. But the entire point is that these things can't scale infinitely. And so they kept coming into this question of like, how do we scale the thing, compute on chain? How do we scale it? And so all of these layer twos on Ethereum, they peg in. They all have their own token, right? And they all the contracts themselves and the aves of the world, they all have their own token, right? And so kind of like it all dissolves down into like the tokenization web three thing. And it's like, it's an entire mess. And I don't even encourage people to go in the weeds and follow all this stuff because it's all just like seedy, mindless, whatever. But the essence of the debate is, okay, well, we all have to do this on-chain to verify to verify.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Essentially, right? And like solanas of the world, we're all a little bit different implementations, right? But it was essentially we're going to take this further centralize. We're going to expand the block space. We're going to consolidate the node running.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, oh, we need to infinitely scale the block size to accommodate for all this global finance and the Bitcoiners and user activated soft fork said, no, we're not infinitely scaling it. And so BCH was created and Bitcoin SV and all this stupid stuff where they scaled up the block size by a crazy amount. And then you have, say, like with Ethereum, right? Where you're doing all this complex computation on chain, right? And it's cool. It's innovative. I understand it. right but every if you look at every time even just the nfts or meme coins or shiba inu get launched on ethereum what happens gas fees spike to the moon meaning gas meaning the computation to settle that contract on ethereum because there's so much demand for this lock space right so what emerged well all of these layer twos right optimism and arbitrum and and all these other altcoins right”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Probably the TLDR is that the value prop for basically the entire altcoin complex is, you know, it hasn't been realized yet, but gets destroyed. Because you can't scale everything on chain, right? That was like the essence of the four course, if you remember, obviously. And I wasn't around, but I read the history of it.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Their own coding language, essentially like a solidity, like an Ethereum style solidity where they created, like Solidity was actually created for the Ethereum virtual machine. And all that compute goes on chain. Well, Robin and the guys that are working on BitVM realize that you don't have to, the innovation of this is you don't do the compute, you don't do all the verification and the computation on chain. You do it off-chain on a virtual machine and then peg it back in to the chain. So all of the sidechain stuff and swaps and stablecoins and all this stuff that people have been talking about as a theory. pegged assets that wasn't ever possible with bitcoin and now there's you know it's still proof of concept but we now have the ability to do this sort of thing and verify into the bitcoin channel so i think”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then derivatives and swaps and all this other stuff. And not that the exciting thing here isn't to create the altcoin complex on a Bitcoin channel or a Bitcoin denominator system. The real exciting thing here is that the value prop per se of the Ethereums of the world was there was all this functionality that Bitcoin couldn't do. Bitcoin's just a boring rock, right? You can only send them receive. Robin basically figured out how to with just simple taproot implementation and simple proof of concept, but they've been iterating on more and more complex designs and versions of this, adding and layering a bit more complexity. And actually, I spoke to Robin for a couple hours in Amsterdam and went to a bit devs literally the day after it was released. And there's like three or four core developers there. And it's like a hypertechnical convo. And he spoke about they're working on creating basically their own version.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Channel close and make sure you're not a cheater. That's what keeps people honest in lightning. It's a similar sort of dynamic in BitVM where there's off-chain computation. And by computation, I mean, if you think about a lot of this stuff that these alt”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, quite exciting stuff. I'm not going to pretend to understand that the intricacies of it all. But essentially, what was it? Earlier, like two, three weeks back, bit this guy, Robin, Linus, publishes a white paper. I'm in Amsterdam for the Bitcoin conference that's happening later this week. And this guy publishes a paper and is basically like, you know, here's a proof of concept. We figured out how to do compute off-chain with a virtual machine and verify it on-chain with a fraud proof. Essentially, it's not, again, this isn't a great technical way or a correct technical way to say it, but in the same way, Lightning has a system of channels where it can verify that, hey, if Preston says, you know, he sent me 100,000 Satoshis and he didn't and he tries to cheat me, I can take your funds, right? Like I can, there's a fraud proof there that if you're lying, I can manually force that.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If I enter a long position or if I enter a short position, at some point in the future, I have to close it. I can never just log off and never, like. There's always a net negative or net zero effect, net negative if you account fees. Again, this is where I think it's a nuanced debate or conversation, but because of the instantaneous settlement of it, because of the fund of flows, because I can buy and settle immediately, it's quite different than, let's say, a gold futures market.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, it's like, I mean, you're trying to suppress a beach ball underwater at some point. And you're going to get blown out of the water. Like no one has infinite Bitcoin denominated capital. So that you're going to get checked. You're going to get called on your short position. Or if, again, the exchange is operating in such a manner, the exchange solvency is going to get called into question. So that's where I disagree. And, you know, the futures market and the spot market are very much intertwined, but on a net basis, futures, right? Like if I buy spot, I never have to sell it. Like I'll probably sell some spot at some point, right? But I buy spot. I send my Bitcoin to my cold wallet, cold storage.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Or the thought market. And there's going to be a flow of coins, whether it's withdrawing from one exchange to the other, right? You're going to see that be arbed away. And so at a certain point, the person that's trying to suppress this thing, like you can get away with a good trade. But if I'm sitting here and the price just keeps bidding up, and every single time I'm short, I'm selling, I'm selling, I'm selling.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think there's also another important point, and a lot of people think, you know, if you're not following these markets closely, don't realize this. There isn't a Bitcoin price. There's a hundred Bitcoin prices on 100 different exchanges. And obviously some are bigger than the others. But if, say, let's say on FTX 2.0, right? There's someone out there that's maybe backed up by government or, you know, just a whale or someone in Big Bank that wants to suppress this thing and not let it rip. Well, you're going to see that, right? You're going to see that on FTX 2.0. The price of Bitcoin is $34,000 while on finance and Bitmex and Coinbase and XYZ exchange, the price of Bitcoin is $35,000, $35,500. Like you're going to see the discrepancy, whether that's the futures market”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To cap this thing, right? It wasn't the futures market itself that was acting as the mechanism because that's very much self-correcting Know if that made sense or not, but that's my two cents.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Versus, you know, say like December of 2022, it was the opposite. And the spot market price and the price on CME Futures was actually under the futures market was under the price of the spot market. So you were actually paying to go short Bitcoin. The shorts were paying the longs. And all of those people got blown out of the water. The notion that Willie says that you can suppress this price on a long timeframe is, in my opinion, wrong. The one thing that to consider is this goes out the window if there is an exchange that's operating, that's not operating fairly, right? And in that case, the solvency of the exchange or the legitimacy of that exchange is in question. It's not a matter of if the futures market itself is suppressing the price. So like with SBF, right? They're like, well, you know, look at what happened with Sam. It's like, well, yeah, he was leveraging his solvency.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The lungs are directly paying the shorts, so the shorts are directly paying the long. Any derivative dislocation you see in bull markets, it often happens to the upside. There's a ton of speculators. Everybody's going long. They're using Bitcoin as collateral, dollars as collateral. There's a frenzy, it's a mania. And that often results in dramatic deleveraging events.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Next month, next week, whatever. For Bitcoin, there's a spot market and there's also a futures market, there's calendar futures, but more particularly, there's the perpetual future. Which never expires and just rolls over. And so to break it down, if you would said, well, the futures market is either artificially inflating the price or suppressing the price, there's a few things to consider. One, for every long, there's a short, right? Two, there's a dynamic financing rate or funding rate as it's technically called in this market that references the spot market price. So say spot Bitcoin's trading at $35,000 if the futures market's trading at $34,000. There's an interest rate that the people on the long side of the trade are getting paid to buy it. So if you buy this contract and hold it, you're receiving every eight hours an interest rate. And that interest rate is calculated based on where the price is relative to the spot market or the spot reference rate. So what does that mean? Well, essentially, you're getting, if the price is, you know, too high compared to spot market or too low,”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know there's, I think, a few different camps, or like maybe subsectors of the futures argument. One is a kind of the gold bugs who are saying, well, look, we have this hard money asset. And for 20 years, 30 years, like forever, as we've been investing in it, it's been manipulated. And they point to the JPMorgan, you know, guys getting fined and fired and all of that and the settlements there. And it's like, see, we told you they're manipulating the futures market and putting a lid on the price. And it's like, well, yeah, because. Well, why is that? Because you can't physically settle gold instantaneously. I can't buy gold on an exchange throwout in 30 seconds. And I do that with Bitcoin a few times a week. There's that component, the futures market, whether it's for gold, it's a calendar's future.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wall Street. You know, they're celebrating this body TF. And I'm like, no, capitulation is happening the other way. Like the Bitcoin is don't care. The narrative is completely reverse of what you think and that the capitulation is happening because people are going up to Larry Fink and BlackRock and investment banks and they're saying, hey, I want this exposure. And I want it in my Charles Schwab account. I don't want it on Coinbase or I don't want it in your private fund that's a liquid or whatever. Like I want it just like how I have my other ETF. And so that's the capitulation is happening from Wall Street capitulating in, right? And they're the ones that are knocking on Gary's door, Gary Gensler, and saying, we want this thing. It's not the other way around.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so where, yeah, it's far too volatile. Great. But the long bonds down to 55% on no volatility, right? So what does that tell you about all the preconceived notions of the finance industry in Bitcoin? And so I think that's a lot of conversations happened last week in financial advisor circles. You know, the Spotty TF hasn't rolled out. Who knows? I think it's probably Q1 of next year at some point. Maybe there's a couple old things on the regulatory front that happened before that. you posted a good article last week on kind of the narrative of like, you know, the terrorist financing and all of that. Who knows how much of a deal they try to make with Tether and Binance. We have yet to see. And they've mentioned some of that stuff in previous ETF filings or denials. But I think it's quite clear the only reason like people, the narrative I saw was pretty funny. They were like, well, yeah, Bitcoiners are capitulating to.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so it's volatile, right? It's always been volatile, but like that, and it sounds like a meme when Bitcoin's, you know, 70% from its highs, but the volatility is quite literally your friend and you can do the map. Again, I'm not telling my baby boomer parents that aren't in finance what a sharp ratio is because they don't care. But if you're in finance, like run the math, do you know look at the sharp ratios, you know, run the passive because like all these 60-40 portfolios are passively indexing as well. So if you're doing that math, we'll do it on the Bitcoin spot index, right?”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“$35,000 Bitcoin. The second narrative violation is at the current trading tick, Bitcoin is down less than the long bond. So you have an entire financial complex that's telling you this thing's too risky, it's too volatile, it's untouchable, it's not investable asset. Stick with what you know, 60, 40, right? And the 60-40 is down 35%. Like Bitcoin, it's like, okay, it's too risky, sure. But it's down 50% from the highs. And anybody that's just been buying the thing and sitting there is up ever, right? So it doesn't matter when you started. You could have literally FOMO'd in at 60,000 and just bought a little bit and stayed the course and you're in the green today. Again, it's, and there's a ton of, there's volatile.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not at all. There's two really interesting narrative violations that occurred on the back of that move last week. One is across every single, and I'm not sure maybe it's changed. I mean, the price is near the highs now, so I doubt it. But across every single, really every day that Bitcoins existed, the 69,000 all-time high, April 2021, 64,000, whatever, because the narrative is all Bitcoin is still down 50%, right? Super risky, volatile, yada, yada. If you dollar cost averaged every day the same amount, one buck, 10 buck, doesn't matter, you'd be in the green from every single day in the quarter history.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If there's any inflows, there's spot ETF rumors, all of that. There's not a whole lot of Bitcoin to go around, especially if there's forced buyers.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I'm short that option and I can get my face ripped off in the other way. But it's pretty interesting. It's a very nascent market. It's very illiquid. The spot market volumes are the lowest they've been in a while. And honestly, I think this plays really into like the huddle mindset of just no one selling their coins. Like across literally every duration, one month, three months, six months, there's a really cool tool called Hodle Waves Unchained Capital showed it. And it's basically showing how much Bitcoin hasn't moved since X period. And basically across every single duration you look at one month, three months, six months, one year, two years. It's an all-time high amount of Bitcoin that hasn't been moved as a percent of the total supply. So the market's just like super, super tight. No one's selling, especially after the last two and a half years of madness.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The pain of this short call trade was amplified with each additional uptick in the Bitcoin market. So they were short, but there's short exposure, both because of the price action and the volatility as volatility spiked and as price spiked, it compounded their pain. So that's why price went from $30,000 to $35,000 in about three seconds or like five minutes was just because there was this massive short trade out there. And so they blew up, right? So it was like picking pennies in front of the steamroller for all of 2023. And someone out there evidently blew up. And Galaxy actually this morning, and who knows that when this episode's released next week, if we see them get squeezed again, but it looks like they may have rolled over some of that short exposure and they're now short up into the high 30s, 30, 36, 37, 38 short gamma once again. So gamma squeezes can work both ways. I can also, you know, sell putts, right? I can sell putts as income.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT