YouSaid · the spoken record

Dylan LeClair

lines on the record: 81
first: 2023-11-07
most recent: 2023-11-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Right, or even like the mean stocks of the world, a lot of the massively dramatic volatile moves upside or downside are amplified by these dynamics in the options market, gamma squeeze. And so they were selling these options and basically different than maybe a traditional just short, short exposure. I'm shorting an asset where it's one-to-one as price climbs.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the rumor is kind of where some of them were in China. We don't really know. It's a bit opaque, but to get that Bitcoin native yield, and it's honestly technically incorrect to call it yield, but for the sake of the conversation, we'll call it quote unquote yield, they were selling call options. So Bitcoin's at 28K. I'm going to sell next month. I'm going to sell a $32,000 call option. And so as long as the price of Bitcoin doesn't go above $32,000 or the volatility stays low, it goes down i collect a bit of a fee, a premium. And so I get that in Bitcoin terms. And so you saw basically this trade just get rolled over over over and over again throughout 2023 of selling calls, selling calls whenever Bitcoin pumped a bit, sell a call. And it almost in a synthetic sort of way, and obviously hindsight is 2020, but you see this happen oftentimes with indices or like a Tesla.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Price action is moving around. And you can just look at price for that. Implied volatility for the SP 500, that'd be the VIX, or for bonds, that'd be move, the move index. And for Bitcoin, you can look at something like there's a bunch of them. BVIV is one of them. This company named Valmax is doing this. They're using Deribit options. There's also like DVOL and a couple other ones. But essentially, that implied volatility and these indexes are only a couple of years old. So we don't have too much to work with as the options market's grown bigger. But implied volatility was near record lows, near all time lows, as Bitcoin is just ranging around from 30,000, 25,000. And so what you saw was because the genesis of the world blew up and there wasn't really any, and again, there's no way to natively get yield on your Bitcoin. It always is, you know, that you are taking some risk. It's, you know, whether it's hidden or not. But those lending vehicles all blew up. So you saw a bunch of counterparties.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So options market is quite the fun one to dive into because there's all these Greeks and terms, gamma and delta and theta and Vega and it's a bit esoteric but essentially what happened for most of 2023, especially following the, and this is a bit of an oversimplification, but I think it holds true, is after we saw all these counterparties blow up in 2022, specifically like the genesis of the world who were borrowing and lending and Bitcoin terms and dollar terms and a bunch of different cryptos, we saw, you know, and they all blew up, right? And since 2023 started, Bitcoin's gone from like 18,000 to 30. And for about six months was ranging around. And you saw record levels, low levels of realized volatility in Bitcoin and implied volatility in Bitcoin. And for those that aren't familiar with the difference, realized volatility is just how much the actual”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. Well, I mean, it would probably look like US draining its SPR at the fastest rate in history and the biggest oil producing nations like Russia and Saudi Arabia and Iran and yada, yada, yada, all attempting to reduce their exposure of treasuries because of conflicts abroad. And if we ever saw that happening, it would be really curious”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which maybe your thesis is AI does that, right? We see just a massive real productivity boom. Sure. I respect your opinion if you think that. But aside from that, There's actually no way out other than. Sustained period of inflation, and basically the central bank punishing creditors and savers. And so that's”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Implicitly or explicitly, or the capping yields somehow, they come out with some word salad facility with the Fed and the Treasury. Like, what's your dollar to the yen that scenario? Like, if the US comes out and says, we're capping the 30 here at 5%, or again, whatever it looks like, who knows? The BTFP on steroids, right? With more complexity to kind of fool the modern day person as to what's actually unfolding. What do you do? Like as an investment manager? And for me, I think you see Bitcoin react as the dollar is doing against the yen on steroids. That's what I made, and gold too, right? But again, we're in really unprecedented territory. And there's really no actual, aside from, you know, an unprecedented productivity boom.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They've moved it right. But every time that the 10 year goes above that peg and you see the swaps market and a bunch of speculators shorting that debt, challenging, shorting the bonds, shorting the currency, basically speculating attack the central bank, they just print more money, right? And then on the other side, they sell their yen or they sell their dollars to buy the yen. They sell their treasuries and buy yen. And so they're trying to maintain the play this impossible game. And they do have a lot of foreign exchange reserves. But I ask people say like, okay, well, if your analog is modern day Japan, like if that's your like, oh, the US can get away with this for so long. Like they can, they can do what Japan has done. Don't worry about it. Well, That scenario What's your dollar versus the yen? If the US is conducting yield curve,”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With 120% debt to GDP, whatever it is, maybe it's, I think it's a bit higher at the current moment, there's been 50 instances of governments reaching that level ever. And all of them accept modern day Japan and the US currently have defaulted, either implicitly or explicitly. It explicitly means they literally didn't pay it back in the case that the debt was in, say, dollars or another currency or gold, or implicitly because basically they inflated it away, hyperinflated or just, you know, a sustained period of financial repression. And even like modern day Japan, right? You see what's happening with the yen, right? Everyone goes, well, Japan's got away with it for so long. And I say, okay, I'll look at the yen. So if you think about what's japan doing to address their debt, well, they're doing yield curve control, you know, and they've gone from a 25 basis point peg in the 10-year to a 50 basis point peg. And now they've said, well, we're targeting 1%. Japan, every time the yields in”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I 100% agree. I think I maybe said it on your show at the end of last year, at the end of 2022. And I mean, here we are with yields having broken the 2022 highs they made. It was a really interesting stat, you know, just a small sample size two of two, but it's something I think everyone should ponder. And it was the last time, this was in 2022, but it's the last time stocks and bonds drew down to the magnitude that they did in 2022 of like 28% plus each was two separate occasions and it was 1931 and it was 1969. And in each of those instances, two years following, the US defaulted on its debt. They broke the gold peg in both cases. So, you know, maybe that's not a technical default, however you want to think about it, you know, but FTRC's your gold and Nixon said, we're not honoring the gold, the international gold peg. So, I mean, here we are with Fiat currencies, right? We have no gold peg. So what is, and with, you know,”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“8 to 10 percent year over year compounded returns that people were used to for the past decade, two decades, four decades in the case of like the baby boomers. So that's a real interesting thought too. And I don't think many people have kind of ran through those ideas.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Ceiling doesn't matter actually. We're going to issue $2 trillion and just let it rip. And I think that should be pause and the cost for concern for anybody that's managing money, right? It's like, you know, what's your benchmark? And that's in flux, right? Because even the official inflation numbers, right, may or may not actually be an accurate indicator of that. I think there's a real good case for even equities, right? In study like 2021 inflation adjusted terms being maybe not like a generational top, but being a top for a while, right? Whether you want to use CPI or some shadow stats or M2 or whatever you want to use, right? If you just look at where the S&P 500 traded as a basket and you put it and you say just divide it by CPI to keep it simple, right? We may just be in for a decade of job, right? We're like stocks do a decent job of maintaining or kind of quasi maintaining your purchasing power, but it's not the free lunch up.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, let me just buy QQQ because QQQ has positive momentum. And so yeah, there's a real, real potential, in my opinion, for pain, whether, what that looks like if the Treasury continues to run $2 trillion deficits. That's really interesting because I don't think anybody and no portfolio manager, no one that's invested in the United States in anyone's lifetime has experienced that. But maybe who has? Well, anybody that's kind of invested or ran money in an emerging market where they understand this environment, they understand what happens in an environment where you have just absolutely no fiscal prudence and you're just printing at will, you're issuing money anywhere and everywhere, you know, hundred billion dollars to Ukraine and Israel or whatever. I'm not even getting into the political left, right. I don't care about that. It's more just like, oh, that's.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, like, all of this stuff is completely different than it's been in the past. We don't have a balanced economy here, like you said. We have this distorted kind of passive zombified equity index environment where, again, no one's really conducting investment calculation. They're just like, oh, you know, let me.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so is that saying that bonds go up, decrease in yield? Or does that mean that stocks are grossly mispriced? Like the basket of tech, really, I mean, it's just that the top seven equities, the top seven stocks, everything else, the Russell, everything them getting killed. I think there's like 30% of companies in the Russell don't make any money. They're like cash flow negative.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so like that whole environment is done, right? The 60-40 inverse correlation of bonds and stocks that everyone's made a bunch of money off of, 2022 was a shock for them because bonds got killed, stocks got killed. Now in 2023, bonds are flat. They rebounded and then since they've sold off and stocks have killed it. Big tech has killed it. Fang plus NVIDIA and Tesla have killed it. And that's just started to normalize. But now it's really interesting because And I don't think this is so much of like a directional indicator of like, you know, it's buy stocks or buy bonds or, you know, short, short one or the other right away. But if you're looking at like the equity risk premium ERP difference in expected earnings, expected yield of investing in stocks and bonds, it's the lowest it's ever been in recorded history.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But even in that scenario, you've had 30 inflation since that point for you to get back to your all-time high purchasing power terms and fixed income, you need to see yields go negative, which like again, this is a bizarre world that doesn't exist in a free market, right? Like the whole reason that anybody besides someone that was mandated to buy fixed income or bonds had 1%. The reason that they would possibly be bullish, the reason people were buying 100 year Austria debt, right, or negative debt for German bonds was, oh, well, if it was more negative, I make a boatload of money.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's been there's no question in my mind the nominal top and the real top in fixed income was COVID, right? You're never going to see I mean, even if, and I am extremely skeptical and doubtful this happens, but even say we see the 30-year trait back to 1%, which is, in my opinion, is absolutely not happening.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I saw, I think maybe you shared it. It was Luke Gromman saying, head of, you know, and there's been a bunch of people for the past, you know, 10, 20 years that said, hey, the Fed's trapped, the Fed's trapped, the Fed's trapped, which may or may not have been true at the point, but the trend has gotten worse. The outlook has gotten worse repeatedly time and time again with each subsequent intervention. And now it may or may not be true, right? you correctly called the BTFP basically a implicit yield curve control for the banks. You're bailing out the banks and their bond exposure while leaving Main Street hanging. But now with a long bond trading where it is, it's like if yields blow out and you intervene and say, hey, we're printing, maybe there's a knee-jerk reaction and stuff and the fixed income gets bid, yields fall, but then it's like, wait, oh, they're printing. Like, why would I hold this paper? So the environment's very, very different.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But in a very indebted economy, monetary policy is a bit tighter when rates are five and a half percent for six, seven, eight, nine, ten, twelve months inflation is lower than that. So I think that's where we are. And so Dulong bonds probably give a pretty good trade risk reward. Especially if the bond math, like the convexity of the bond and how it trades, right? I think like a 1% move lower in yields versus 1% move higher in yields is like a very, very asymmetric bet right now. I don't know the math off the top of my head, but some bond guys could tell you. So like there's a lot of reasons why it's a good trade, right? Or not depending on what you think. But I think the story is still the same, right? That the JDP is 120%. There's no way you get out of this historically, you know, look at every single financial analog in history without a sustained period of inflation higher than interest rates, right? So do you want to?”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I do think that the economy is going from is in the deceleration phase for sure. And rates are still five and a half percent. We just post probably the second half of 2023 after inflation tailed off a bit in year-over-year terms, right? The derivative of inflation, prices are still higher than ever. But they're rising not as fast as they once were. We're now actually just kind of in the Titanen phase, right? Because all 2022, even when rates were being rising, inflation was still 8%, 9%, 7%. And so monetary policy isn't tight with inflation at seven rates at five.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Running massive deficits, very robust consumers are stronger than you'd expect. We haven't seen that kind of like recession in the labor market. It's starting to crack a bit or the spending. So front end rates have been high, and we've actually seen a bear steepener, which is the long end blowing out and rising up to near around the level of the front end. There's some really, really smart people out there that I respect and follow that are very, very bullish on bonds here. And there's people that I also respect and I think are very, very smart that are like, no way, they're running 8% annualized deficits before the recession hits. I don't really have a strong bias in one way or another. Like, I'm not, I don't think my edge is, you know, going speculating on where long end rates go over the next three months or six months.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know the last, I don't know, three, four, or five cases have been because the front end falls, right? The Fed cuts, you know, if you're looking at, say, the two-year, which is kind of just a blended average of the next two years of the market's expectations for rates. Well, it's because the Fed sees weakness. You start to see real pain. They cut. Well, this cycle, it's been really interesting because, you know, the Fed's been holding, they're holding. The economy surprisingly to a lot of us, including myself, has been very robust in fiat nominal terms, right?”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're entering the deflationary phase finally of this Titan cycle, and they're going to get really, really big. But I think the interesting thing for me is like, you know, is TLT or is the long bond like a good trade for the next six months or 12 months? That's a topic that you can have a really, really long debate on. But I think regardless of that, bonds are at best, in my opinion, at best, you buy them for a trade. And I'm not telling you to buy bonds or not, right? That's everyone else's decision, but it's a trade at best, in my opinion, right? Of like the long end. Because like I will never even at 5%, right? I have zero interest in lending my money to the US government or any government in fiat-denominated terms for 30 years. So if you think about how the recession comes after a yield curve inversion, right? Like a lot of the pain in the stock market in financial assets and a recession doesn't come when the yield curve inverts. It comes after the yield curve uninverts after an inversion, right? And historically that inversion comes”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For the past two, three years, you know, I would say I was in the camp of yourself, Lynn Alden, Luke Groman, a couple other very, very verbal bond bears out there. And there's many more. I didn't just name, but kind of like a hard money thesis, bonds, fixed income paper, debt assets are screwed. And that was, you know, slam dunk home run, correct. And I think we've seen in terms of the principal value of long bonds globally, you've seen the first, you know, the past two years of price action, the worst bond price action in recorded history. Modern and there's some like, there's like a Bank of America chart. It's like the worst treasury drawdown since 1770. And you're like, okay, so ever. And so I think in terms of that, we've seen the big move. And, you know, there's a lot of debate about belonging going to five and a half or six or seven or no.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so my day to day, I'm doing some stuff with UTXO management, kind of a Bitcoin-based fund. And so, again, like didn't really know how to code at the turn of the year and with one of my buddies, Sam Roll, we've been putting together dashboards pulling from like five, six, seven APIs kind of making just like interactive charts and data streams and all this sort of stuff. And Sam's a better coder than myself, but we're both leaning on it pretty heavily. Fitting it documentation and all this other stuff like errors. And it's not the best thing in the world. I'm sure there's far better coders. But, you know, for someone that's like, again, never had any formal training. And just kind of like making it up as I go, it's a pretty powerful tool.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's pretty mind blowing. I mean, we're just along for the ride at this point. The Genie's out of the bottle, right? Like we're not putting this thing away. Better or worse, we have it here.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Totally nuts. I mean, you got to give him a lot of credit. Jeff Booth was coming on here and he was talking about doing the folding paper analogy and you fold it 30 times or something and it goes to the moon or the sun or there are some like exponential analogy he would always give and you know like the ai stuff and like all of like moore's law it sounds good and you're like whoa that's really incredible and then to watch it happen in a year two years like every month it's like leaps and bounds better you know you can submit a picture of a meme and it breaks down a meme like like no text just an image right it's just like wait this thing is i mean it's not thinking for itself but it's it i mean to us it appears like it's thinking for itself”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And a whole other rabbit hole itself was like how that's going to be leveraged with propaganda and like the psyops and So we got a weird decade ahead of us, exciting, super exciting, but very weird.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“like on the average person like i showed my parents who like i would understand that they're not on you know chat gpt in their day-to-day workflow but i showed them some of the stuff they could do right like i you know i got a one of my parents had a medical procedure and they got a doctor's list just super crappy handwriting of just whatever the notes were i took that i put it in and it not only like read it but then i asked it questions about probabilities and asked it about symptoms And you know, was it perfect? Like, who knows, right? They were amazed that it wasn't a doctor. They were like, who's saying that? And I was like, well, no, it's the AI that's feeding you these probabilities and info. And so never mind the whole market stuff or the day-to-day coding. Just like the scope and scale of what you can do is pretty mind-blowing. And yeah, it's going to dematerialize a whole lot of stuff. It's also going to get kind of like scary with the deepfakes and, you know, the fake image.”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Crazy stuff. I mean, it's only the tools I've only gotten exponentially better. And I think that's the trend. It's wild to think, I know we're in kind of our own little echo chamber of tech and Bitcoin and Twitter especially a lot of this stuff is kind of like the coolest newest thing is is flash in front of us but I think a lot of people still have have no idea just how powerful this is like obviously it's being built and used at like the enterprise level”
2023-11-07 · We Study Billionaires · BTC155: Dylan LeClair Bitcoin Market Overview (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT