YouSaid · the spoken record

Edward Yardeni

lines on the record: 117
first: 2016-06-10
most recent: 2016-06-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Peace breaks out. That's globalization. This is not the first round of globalization we've ever had. We had after the War of 1812, after the Civil War, after World War I. And it's just, what happens is you now can trade with people around the world. And there's more competition is really what happens.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I mean is macroeconomists are looking at too big at the big picture. The microeconomists are looking at market structure. So they're saying, okay, are the markets competitive or are they monopolized? In wartimes, there's very little competition and you can't trade with your enemies. It's hard to trade with your friends.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, sure. When we write about this, I think what that confirms for me is that microeconomics has become more relevant or is more relevant than macroeconomics and things like that. Meanwhile, meaning the household.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Especially I have a chart that I show of the CPI going back to 1800. It's a monthly chart. And obviously, it's changed over the years. It used to be kerosene and grain. Now it's a whole bunch of other things, include services much more now than it did back then. And what that chart shows when you look at the level of the CPI, it just screams at you. And that is inflation tends to be associated with wars and deflation tends to occur during peacetimes. And after a long enough peacetime, you sort of have price stability. Send me that.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Three and a half, 4%. Be a nightmare Debt you've just put out there Yeah, and in some ways we were lucky that some structural secular forces have kept inflation down. Imagine if all this liquidity really did bring back CPI inflation. Then the central banks for credibility would have to raise interest rates, which would be disastrous.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Man side manager. Explain what you mean by that. Easy money, and you're going to stimulate demand, very Keynesian. I think the problem is that we're overloaded with debt. So I think that's where the central bankers aren't in tune with reality. They've been doing this for so long that they're just way too much debt relative to income. And so easy money, empirically we can see it's just not being very stimulative anymore.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the way I look at it, the US is done, Japan. Europe is just getting started. The problem is it's based on demand side management, right?”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Question I think we have. And I think financial markets have kind of signaled that we haven't seen the markets go down because you never know when a central bank will try another shock and awe, but we just don't get shocked and awed the way we used to.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you saw if the money goes to bridges and roads. That's a big if. We did have during this administration, the beginning of the administration, the ARRA. I forget what it stands for. Sure. The American Recovery and Something Act. It was $800 billion and a big chunk of that. What's supposed to be infrastructure, but it really wasn't.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And they think their roads are bad. Yeah, yeah. No, I don't know why we're in such a miserable situation other than government regulation and, I mean, we do spend money, but it just doesn't seem to show up in the infrastructure.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The one that has all the iPads Yeah. The rest of the airport is a dump. Yeah, it can you travel, right? You're in Europe, you're in Asia pre regularly.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was demography I buy into secular stagnation as a description of what we're going through. And since I buy into it, I'm buying into the word secular. In other words, this could last a while. I don't buy into the Larry Summers idea that we need more government policy to get us out of this mess. I mean, the next thing that government may very well do is helicopter money. It doesn't really mean that they're going to rent helicopters and draft money. It means more infrastructure spending. Infrastructure spending fiscal directly financed by the federal government. The problem is we proved earlier on a few years ago that we're not shovel ready. There's too many regulations and it's not clear that even if we did something like that, it would really...”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Global competition, otherwise known as globalization. So there are forces at work here that really have structurally changed the outlook for inflation and for Growth, and so maybe interest rates are going to stay historically low.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, it's not, but you know. Better than zero. There are some structural forces out there that have nothing to do with the Fed, like Asian demographics, I think, is slowing the global economy down. Technology is fundamentally disruptive”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Nobody wants to go through all. And, you know, again, capitalism is a guy that's winners and losers. I like to show Shark Tank on TV. Now they're doing some segments showing what it's like after people get supported. And winning is a lot of people lose after they win because they don't know how to manage their inventories and they fail. And some of them dust off and start all over again. But we just don't have that kind of. Central banks have kind of softened this up. And I'm not quite sure how we get out of this”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think we needed all those other QEs. I think they just, I think the central banks have become just kind of like drug dealers to the economy and to the one wants to go through.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then it's gone. Not like here's And Bernanke was giving a speech on the great moderation and saying that. Central banks have conquered the business cycle, a capitalistic system has its ups and downs. I mean, people have to deal with failure if they've speculated too much and if the central bank says, don't worry about it, we'll give you the greenspan, put the Bernanke, put the yell and put, you know, it creates too much speculation, too much excess, and too much debt. And as I mentioned before, there's nobody that's doing that on a bigger scale right now than the Chinese. That's just an enormous amount of debt relative to what eventually their economy can carry.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Coming up. Well, again, these things all work until they don't work. I mean, right now central banks printing money is working until it doesn't work. So I don't think anybody's really trying to figure out how we manage in the future. It's not good for our kids. But maybe they're too young to”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It still kind of raises the question who's going to pay for all that? I mean, if you got people getting older and older not able to work, they need robots, but they need to eat, they need medication, they need transportation. Well, Switzerland.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, you know who's born, you know what the fertility rates are Much longer people are living? How do we take care of all these old people? Robots Japan is kind of there”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think one of the great challenges looking ahead, I kind of learned my lesson from Y2K not to get too millennial about these things. Right. But longer term, I mean, demography is destiny.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And stay married. I don't know if the data still holds up. It used to be that you'd have to have a lot of kids to take care of you in your old age. Right. Take care of the farm. Well, now the government is expected to take care of you. So what's the point of having kids? So I think that's had an impact on. But for one reason or another, there are lots of reasons why fertility rate, we're really at replacement. We're not really slightly.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's diverse culturally, and there's still, I mean, religion has a lot to do with people who are religious tend to have more kids. Sure.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, nobody's got, I don't think there's one explanation. I think women have become economically freer in a lot of these countries and don't want to have as many kids. But the same.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Pregnant and moved to the burbs moved to the burbs and got a couple of cars and then upgraded to a bigger house. So it was a different lifestyle than the millennials are used to. And, you know, at some point they may tire of dating different people on a regular basis and find their true soulmate and settle down and decide it's time to have kids. But later you wait to get married, odds are you're going to have fewer kids. So, I think the demography is, I've always believed that demography is very, very important. Everybody thinks it takes too long to have an impact. I don't think that's the case at all. I think it explains a lot.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, when I was going to college, you know, a lot of people married their high school and college sweethearts. And then the next thing you did is maybe you moved to the city and then six months later you...”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the boomers got married earlier in their lives than the millennials. The average age of marriage for both men and women has extended. Maybe that has something to do with social networking. You can have plenty of dates.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, God bless America and God bless the American consumer. I mean, one thing that Americans are very good at is consuming. And they really haven't let us down over the years. I think there's some concerns that the baby boomers who were yuppies and now they're getting older aren't doing the kind of spending they used to and maybe the millennials aren't going to pick up the ball or the baton as well. But the data shows that consumers consume their incomes and employment's been growing, wages have been growing. Again, this myth out there that Americans wages have stagnated for the past 20 years, that's based on one statistic that's collected by the census bureau to measure poverty and it's measured before taxes. It's measured before entitlements. So it's not a good measure of the purchasing power the consumers actually have.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really? Yeah. So it's not obvious that that's going to turn things around. It's not going to do anything for them anytime soon. The old concern was, well, China grow old before it grows rich. And there's more and more evidence saying that it's grown old faster than it's grown rich.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that was the fear back then. Yeah, and so when that bubble burst, what do they do? They lowered their interest rates to zero. They were early on with quantitative easing. They were actually late on negative interest rates, but they caught up earlier this year. The demography is terrible. The fertility rates collapsed. No immigration.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That not enough. They start out with the bubble, and you know, China's going to be, Japan's going to be the world's largest economy. I remember.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we have a... We have a good example of where China's going, maybe where Europe's going, and eventually where we're going, though I don't think we're going to go down that same road. That's Japan. Japan was early on with the.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's probably 100%. I mean, Trying to keep this thing from falling apart. But Japan kind of went down the same road. Remember, they were”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, bubbles, you know, we were talking about earlier in our discussion about why it's so important to focus on debt in thinking about financial markets. The number there's floors me is when you look at bank loans outstanding in China. In dollars, they were five trillion dollars in 2008. They're $15 trillion now. They've tripled. So, over this same period, we've seen our bank loans go up by about a trillion. They certainly haven't tripled.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It must be. It must be that consumers are still consuming over there, but their exports clearly are suffering because the global economy on balance is growing at a subpar pace. Japan is in a coma and China is slowing down dramatically. China is the world's Maybe biggest ever bubble of all times.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But back to the global story, it's hard to detect much of a pulse in the Eurozone, in production. Production is actually flat for the past two years, which is... Kind of weird because car sales have actually been pretty good and retail sales have been actually pretty good so it's not there. Over there, over there.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That seemed to come to pass. I was called into one of my accounts at the beginning of the year, a mutual fund in New York, and there were 30 people in the room. Usually I get 15 people in the room. And there was a lot of concerns about those issues. How could a 75% drop in the price of oil not lead to a debacle? How could we not see the Chinese devaluing their currency? So, I mean, look, a lot of those issues are still out there. But this bull market's been really driven by central banks providing ultra easy monetary policies and corporate finance managers, particularly in the US, buying back their shares. And so far, we've had a lot of panic attacks and followed by relief rallies in the stock market.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, well, they're back to it, but they were just starting to put together the euro. So the world feels to me kind of like the second half of the 1990s where the US was doing well and everybody else was kind of fumbling along. What's different this time maybe is the euro is actually more diversified and we're doing well in technology. We're doing well in finance. We're doing well in healthcare just across the board. We're doing extremely well. And I think we did respond to the 2008 crisis by restructuring a lot of the excesses. And lawyers are running rampant on Wall Street and banks have become regulated utilities. And look, we just had this energy debacle and it hasn't taken us down in the financial system, which I think is proof positive that we've learned something from that experience.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“While the use is doing great, in some ways it's reminiscent of the 1990s. Remember back then there was the high-tech revolution and it was very U.S.-centric. If you wanted to invest in technology, you pretty much had to be in the US. When I was on Wall Street, I recalled Dell boxes. Everywhere you had to be careful not to trip over them. I remember that when I first started in the early 90s, it was a rare person who got a laptop. And then suddenly everybody's getting PCs and laptops and everything. The whole environment on technology changed pretty dramatically. But again, the US was where you want it to be. We had an emerging market crisis in 1997 in Asia. The Russian debt crisis in 1998. The Europeans were suffering from what they call Europe. Clerosis, and they remember, and they were trying to.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know if it's US versus foreign so much as it is big versus small. EF Hutton was relatively small, prudential beije was relatively small, believe it or not, back then. CJ was small. But once you start talking about Deutsche, that's a big bank. I think big organizations, there's a lot of politics and they seem to change their strategy on a regular basis. Right.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Americans still basically ran the shop and certainly on the equity side. It was only in kind of the late period there that it became a little bit more international, but I didn't really see much of it”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just the same for no desk, different card. Yeah, exactly. The bottom line is I was there for basically the 1990s and I really didn't see much impact at all because, you know.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, CJ Lawrence, when I joined in the early 90s, was owned by Morgan Grenfell, but very arm's length. And then Morgan Grenfell was bought by Deutsche Bank, also very arm's length, and it took a while before the regulators in the US allowed the foreign banks to have any influence on CJ Lawrence.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He wanted a show that he was on top of it But as you know, he made it very clear that he wasn't in the bubble bursting business, that he'd clean up the mess after it happened. And so I started to worry a little bit more about the mess. And it seemed to me that Y2K could create a problem. And so I did start to write about that issue. And suddenly I started to attract all these Y2K people, not the French people, but investment technology chiefs were calling me up and said, you know, it's good to have somebody outside of the industry kind of raising the flag. And as a matter of fact, it turned out that the S&P 500 companies spend $50 billion. Which then burst in 20”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, but by 1990 he was actually, he gave a speech called the I think it was called the technology lottery, something to that effect. Basically he was saying that, yeah, TechSax seem overvalued. It's kind of questionable why Fed chairman should be talking about valuation.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of these Y2K companies that were fixing the problem. And so I started to look into it. I mean, basically, the forecast was working out real well. And sometimes when something's working out, don't mess with it. But when I saw that Alan Greenspan was starting to be a cheerleader for the tech revolution and was saying this could be a once-in-a-century development. What was that like?”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They had no idea what it was. The compliance department certainly did. No, no, there were no lawyers around. And so I had my own website. It was fantastic. And in the early 1990s for me, the 80s for me was when I was forecasting disinflation and I was very bullish on bonds. The 1990s, my focus, with the benefit of hindsight, turned out to be larger than technology. In 1993, I started to argue that we were in the early stages of a high-tech revolution. 1995. It was a great call. And as a matter of fact, I think back then 500 tech companies were about 11% of the market cap, and I predicted they'd get to 17%. I think they got to 25% of market cap. And along the way, as that call worked out, my contrary instincts came out a little bit.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Physics I'm not keeping up. It's too much. So, yeah, so I became an economist, but when I switched over to arts and sciences, I still stayed with physics for one last gasp and took a course in semiconductors and a course in material science, really, and assembly programming. And I really like programming. But, you know, I never really mastered it. I just kind of enjoyed it. And actually in 1995, I think I was probably the first economist on Wall Street with his own website. I don't know how I got away with it. My firm let me actually put Dr. Ed Yardenny's economics network on it.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Programming glitch, and before you answer. Issue. Yeah, I guess during my wonder years, I went to elementary school in Cleveland, Ohio, and then we moved to San Jose, California, which even back then was Silicon Valley. My father worked for IBM. I was in a science club and learned Fortran programming. I've always had interest in that. And when I went to... Cornell, I started out in engineering and just couldn't take differential equations. It was way too hard and physics was way too hard.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's the delta terminal. Yeah, absolutely. That was renovated. People replace them with robots. Barry, look, at the end of the day, why do we really care about productivity? And the answer is because it determines the standard of living.”
2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source