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Edward Yardeni

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117
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2016-06-10
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2016-06-10
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1
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  1. “Reachable any time of the night and day. I think the productivity numbers are either right or they're wrong. Either the statisticians have it more or less right or else they're missing a lot of output. The truth may be somewhere in between, but look, the reality is a lot of the jobs that have been created have been created in the service sector. And we're only now starting to see technology entering the service sector. There's this robot pepper that SoftBank is marketing and selling and apparently MasterCard is using it in some restaurants in Japan. I mean, you know, we already have at LaGuardia, you know, it's the so-called third world airport. Right. We have iPads sitting there where you can order what you want to eat.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Yeah, now it's long term investment. Software, I'm not even quite sure how you measure that, but there's a measure of software. I don't know. My company is totally virtual. Everybody works from everywhere the like. Right. We do the same thing. We send all of our information to the Amazon cloud. I'm not pitching their service, but we send it to the cloud and everything is done remotely. We used to have two servers sitting in a server farm. And the productivity of those machines had to be extremely low. We weren't using them very much. But now on the Amazon cloud, I have to believe that the servers that Amazon has, those servers are being used very intensively. But we're working 24 by 7. So, I don't know, maybe we're putting out more output, but we're also working long hours because we're that.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “You know, I think it takes a long time for the government statisticians to recognize that they're missing something. It could take 10, 15, 20 years, and then it could take him another.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “And what's their hourly wage? And that gives you total wages. And then do you know, you can use the month over month change. And, you know, like last month everybody was disappointed by the payroll number. It was not a big number. It was disappointing. But when you looked at hours and wages, the earned income proxy was up like 0.7%. It's a big move at a month on a month basis. And it was a great harbinger of retail sales being better than expected.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “And what that is simply is you take, okay, how many people are working? How many hours are they working? And what's their wage? It turns out that's exactly what the Bureau of Labor Statistics does to get an initial estimate for wages. And wages is what drives the consumer to a large extent.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “And they always get revised repeatedly. Repeatedly. And not only that, but it's just, you can really sink in that swamp that they hand out every month. There's just so much data and information. We try to cut to the chase. Maybe it's because I'm simple-minded. I need to keep my mind focused on one or two variables. What we do is we calculate something called the earned income proxy.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “Yeah, absolutely. Came out suddenly Other than excess supply. That's a great point. So you got to know when these indicators are useful and when they're not. The CRB is still useful. The Baltic isn't useful because there's just way too many ships out there. So, but, you know, I mean, other than that, I mean, there's really nothing that I don't look at. I mean, I look at West Coast Container traffic. I'll look at rail, you know, so I mean, I'm not the only one looking at this stuff. I mean, rail car loadings is something we look at very closely. But we try not to ignore anything.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “But looking at US unemployment, I mean, let's face it, the US economy in the past and continues to be a major driver of the global economy. So it's still working. I mean, it's conceivable that one of these days the US won't be as important as it still is, and that indicator won't be as helpful when we look at initial claims. The commodity price index has been very, very helpful. But like all indicators, you got to know when and when to fold them. Sometimes when they don't seem to work. They're helpful in forcing you to think about what's different this time around. And with a recent drop in the industrial commodity prices until earlier this year, I concluded that it wasn't that the global economy was falling into recession, but there was just way too much supply of these commodities.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “13 industrial commodities. It does not include any petroleum products, it doesn't include any wood products, which is why I like it, because I think petroleum and wood have their own supply and demand. The main reason I like it is because it's been available for years. It's available daily. And it's a very sensitive indicator of the global economy. And sometimes I get a little funky with it. I've for many years been calculating the boom bus barometer. And that's simply that commodity index divided by initial unemployment claims. So it's a weekly number.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “Yeah, if you recall, Kaufman actually spent an enormous amount of time, had a big staff predicting where the flow of funds was going to go. And I always thought it was a little bit over the top. You know, I mean, can you really forecasting a couple of numbers, let alone hundreds of flow of funds numbers, but he went through the exercise, and I guess it worked for him until it didn't.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “Oh, it was easy from academics. So what led you there? It was easy. I was born at the Fed. I was writing these memos that were just put in the file. As it turned out, they put me on a very important subject, which was Regulation Q and the Savings and Loan Industry. Oh, sure. So, I mean, that came in real handy for the S&L crisis in the late 80s and the early 90s. So I sort of was prepared for all that. But the transition to Wall Street was easy. A headhunter called me up and said E.F. Hutton's looking for somebody to be an economist on the fixed income flow fund side. And it's like, whoa, this is exactly the job I'm looking for because that was what Henry Koffman did. Henry Coffin focused on the flow of funds and the outlook for interest rates. And so, I mean, I got the job one, two, three. It was great.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “With Kaufman, in some ways, I mean, the urban legend she passes on to me is that her uncle kind of created the Kaufman's job. So there's always sort of a kinship there. But I mean, I didn't know anything about that at the time. The role of a chief economist on Wall Street appealed to me. And Coffin really was the fellow who blazed the trail.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “I only stayed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for a year. I spent a short period of time at the Federal Reserve Bank in Washington, D.C. spending some time writing my dissertation. Honestly, my role model is actually Henry Kaufman. Oh, really? Yeah, back when I was an undergraduate at Cornell, I actually kind of cold call Kaufman and asked him if he'd come and speak to a group of us. And he wasn't able to do it. But I was an early admirer of his. And as a matter of fact, Uncle Charles was at Solomon Brothers. With Kalfman?”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “Why is that? I think it gives you a tremendous advantage, and I wish I really spent more time on the fixed income side because I spent it more on kind of the macro side, not on the credit side. And with the benefit of hindsight, being a credit analyst on the bond side or having some insights there would have been very helpful in 2007. As a matter of fact, one of my accounts in San Francisco, a strategist there came to New York in 2008 and called me up and said, Ed, I don't have any time to see. I'm seeing just fixed income strategist. And it was brilliant because he really early on got really spooked by what he heard. So I think the reason that it's important to know what's going on in the credit side is that's where the trouble often starts to much debt.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “That's right On risk, didn't they? They did. But it turned into the Wild West pretty quickly early in my career because a lot of the firms went public And we started to see all kinds of trading desks open up. For my career, it was great because I had a tremendous demand for what I did for a living from the commodity people, from the equity people, the bond people. As a matter of fact, although most of my career has been focused on equity strategy, the reality is the early part of my career at EF Hutton was made on the bond market. I had some great calls back then. And so I had just, for me, as an economist and then as a strategist, the fact that Wall Street went into more and more businesses and had more and more trading desks and things got more volatile and more dependent on information, that was great for me.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “I think it was golden, I think, because it was sort of the tail end of the partnerships when Wall Street firms were responsible for their actions.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. “Look ahead, imagine more. Gain insight for your industry with forward-thinking advice from the professionals at Cone Resnik. Is your business ready to break through? Find out more at ConeResNik.com slash breakthrough.”

    2016-06-10 · Masters in Business · Interview With Edward Yardeni: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source