YouSaid · the spoken record

Emil Kalinowski

lines on the record: 82
first: 2022-07-07
most recent: 2022-07-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Thank you very much, Jack. The most exciting guests we have anywhere on our horizon is Captain Jack himself. We're going to definitely have to have you on. Eurodollar University, Eurodollar. University. Did you know that they have these? Domain namesow.university, eurodollar.university, go there, YouTube, search for Emil Kalinowski or Jeff Snyder. And on Twitter, search for at Emil Kalinowski. And I had a wonderful time. I really appreciate it. I can't wait to find out what the feedback is from the audience. I hope I did okay.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know. I don't know. I'm not too good at this short-term stuff the next six months. I don't know. I really like the phraseology of ECRI, the economic psycho research institute and Lachman Atan. Forgive me. I know I'm sorry. I love him. He's fantastic. And he says that we're in a window of vulnerability. So the window of vulnerability is open. Maybe it's going to close and everything will be fine. Maybe we'll hit a bad speed bump and we'll fall completely over. I don't know. We'll see how bad it can get. Maybe it won't be that bad. Maybe it will be really bad. The window of vulnerability is open. I would think at least through the end of this year. Be determ”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“During the 1970s and 80s. So I think that if we were in a period of secular inflation, the Federal Reserve might not care about an inverted eurodollar curve, as it seems to not based on their statements.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the Federal Reserve started their dot plots after the great financial crisis. So it's judging the Fed versus the Eurodollar futures market, you have to start with a dot plots. So yeah, since the origin of the dot plots, they have been a very poor predictor of interest rates. And yes, the interest rate futures curve, I guess you could say the treasury curve, just the bond market really, has been much more successful. I say notably in 2018 when they priced the pivot, as well as in 2020, the euro dollar futures curve predicted it. I would say, though, I don't think the euro dollars futures market existed in the 1970s. The euro dollar market, of course, did, but the euro dollar futures market, I don't think, did. Maybe Jeff has some data on that. But I do think that if you look at the two ten spread as well as the Fed funds rate, the Federal Reserve continued to hike into an inverted yield curve and into a recession.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would be putting my money on the people that have been right for decades. They did it in 2000. They did it in 2006. They did it in 2018. And the Federal Reserve was saying, what? Where am I? Why is this market doing these things? Well, it's just hedging. Markets. I'm sorry, I'm getting upset, Jack, but it's just contemptible. The Federal Reserve and their track record.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Said less than one year Federal Reserve, you'll be cutting rates. Less than one year. And they've increased their bets more since then.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“month by month by month we've been raising our stakes and bringing that point when you will be cutting rates even though you are certain you are confident that you're going to be raising them until God knows when the end of the universe No, and now it's in the year twenty twenty two that the Eurodollar Futures market, the biggest market in the world other than currencies, perhaps, is betting that they'll be cutting rates, and what a slap in the face that is, because the day after they did their big seventy five basis point hike was the first time that the euro dollar futures curve inversion moved into the whites, which is this group of the first four contracts. As I said earlier, it was way out into the future, moving closer, closer. The day before, the day before, the big $75 basis point hike we're the center of the monetary universe.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't care. We're going to keep rising. We're going to keep raising rates, even though there's a recession likely already in progress because we're recording this five days after the close of the second quarter in the United States, which will be negative maybe, maybe so that'll be an undeniable recession. First half of the year is being negative. But the euro dollar futures curved Jack, the euro dollar futures curve, look at that. They are saying we hear what you're saying and we don't believe you. We don't believe you. We believe you're going to be cutting rates by the end of this year. In December of last year, we started putting money on twenty twenty five.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I definitely agree with you. Yes, the two year has been rising that much because the Fed is saying we are zealots. We are looking just at the CPI and its high, and therefore we have to be seen to be doing something. So we're going to be raising rates, even though an entire slew of monetary measures for the last year have been warning us that the economy is not as optimistic, not as good, especially since October. We've seen inversion in very important bond markets, money markets. We're going to completely ignore that because we're beholden to politicians and CPI, and we have to be seen to be doing something. So those markets, the two-year market, the Eurodollar market, they're seeing zealots saying.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How does the Federal Reserve exert control over the two year yield? You know, there is this concept forward guidance, which happens to be the name of this podcast, that the Federal Reserve indicates rather than raising rates from 0% to 2% overnight, that indicates we're going to tighten monetary policy and we're going to be data dependent. And that sort of changes the future forward path of interest rates, the forward curve of interest rates, whether it's the sofer curve, the euro dollar curve, the Fed funds curves, they're all highly, highly related, like an R squared of very, very related. So what is your outlook on the forward guidance that has happened? And do you think that the tumultuous rise in the two-year treasury yield, for example, has been due to the Federal Reserve sort of wink wink and nudging the market saying, hey, by the way, we're serious, we're hawkish, we're raising.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Definitely definitely. Yeah. We're not saying they're powerless. We're just saying they're one node in the system. They're one of the planets in this solar system. They're not the sun. They carry themselves as the sun. They pretend they are the sun. But they're just one of the nodes and they have influences, but they're part of the system. They're not this overwhelming force.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Ignore that floor, we're going to buy below the floor. We're going to lose money. We're going to lose return because we are desperately in need of this collateral. So I'm rambling now. Go on. Go on.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've seen nominal yields rise, so that suggests economic opportunity is good in the future. No, I think that has to do with the Federal Reserve raising rates. And how do we know that for sure? It's because the spread between the 10-year and the two-year has been contracting. So basically, the yield curve has been rising bit by bit, being pushed up by the Federal Reserve, offering their money alternatives. But the 10-year eight-year longer term ones, did I say eight-year? I meant seven five year. Those are not being pushed up by as much, right? They're resisting. They're saying, I don't think so. Even the short-term ones, the two-year ones, or the even the shortest term, the one month, the less than one year bills, even those are yielding less than something like the reverse repo rate because people are saying we need this collateral. The Fed is setting a floor.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's so much economic opportunity. Why would you put your money in these safe instruments? You're a fool when you can invest in the economy and make so much more with not that much more risk, right? Now, obviously, there's risk return, but the rising yields suggest there's more and more economic opportunity to be had that the government needs to compensate people for.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The bond market tells us what level of economic opportunity we can expect into the future. And when yield spreads start contracting, other just straight up nominal ones, which they haven't been, or the spread has been contracting where nominal rates have not been. Then it suggests there is. Economic opportunity that's being short circuited. So we should expect to see an upward sloping yield curve. We should see a yield curve that's rising higher and higher, suggesting that if the government needs to compensate you more and more.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Towards a deflationary contractionary, expansionary slowdown, but the central bank, as has been the case for decades, follows the bond market. It's the bond market that leads us in giving us an outlook into the future as to what we can expect from the economy.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we're right back into a downturn right now. So, to your second question, did the Federal Reserve bring about the downturn by changing their policies and their narrative and tightening? No, it's comical and I'm laughing. The downturn began in February of 2021, or at least the end of the reflation, the end of economic growth and opportunity. Bond spreads began to narrow, the ten year versus the two year began to narrow. All manner of other bond spreads began to narrow February 2021. It narrowed even further in May, especially a lot more in October. Euro dollar inversion in December, a US Treasury curve at the beginning of the year of twenty twenty two, then the invasion by Russia into the Ukraine helped push even more people.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They stepped in and they cleaned things up, and they did a great job with narrative and propaganda and support and things will be better. And the economy was turned off and it was turned back on. And we had a recovery and inflation. And it was better that they did something that nothing, I suppose, sure, fair enough. I really particularly like the government guaranteeing bank loans. You saw that all over the world. That was something very new that we hadn't seen to date during this silent depression. Government guaranteed bank loans. Excellent to the real economy. Excellent. Guess what? Those things are expiring. Those things are being wrapped up. Nobody's expanding them. Not enthusiastically”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then they stepped in and did lots of things. So they really weren't a central bank up to the point when they started doing lots of things, were they? They weren't really encouraging money supply. I didn't see that there was a big downturn on the way.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know what you want to call it a recovery? It's a recovery. Did we get back to trend, a pathetic trend that we were on beforehand? I would call it a reflection. Rebound They had a role I mean, are we conflating them being a janitor with them being a central bank? They came after the catastrophe. Brought on the catastrophe themselves because they pulled out all short-term, all poetic license. They after September 2019, they started buying short-term U.S. Treasury boast the best of the best of U.S. financial system collateral. They were pulling that out of the system. Is malfeasance, malpractice. They should have been brought up on charges like a doctor who amputates the wrong foot. They were pulling collateral out of the system, leading the After a multi year, two year downturn. Then we had the corona crisis. There was a terrible downturn.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So tell us, let's go back to March 2020. The conventional narrative, which I think I happen to agree with, is that there is a ton of money printing in 2020 and 2021, that money printing was done by the Federal Reserve, by commercial banks, and by the government, and that the sum of that money printing was much greater than the whole of his parts. As you can see, QE by itself is not at all effective growth stimulant. But when you have the government printing tons of money, issuing tons of bonds that in effect are bought by the Federal Reserve via the primary dealers, and then you also have commercial banks lending out money that is then forgiven by the federal government, that is definitely money creation, and that money creation had a large part to play in the somewhat stunning economic recovery we saw, you know, I mean, people forget how grim and dire things look.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think if it is scenario one, then it is sort of of the macro hedge fund managers just creating their own future. It's kind of a mirror image of the argument that central banks create affect the economy, right? In both cases, it's people's fancy clothes sort of Playing on a string versus the euro dollar system of scenario two is the decentralized future of.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know symbiotic, they feed each other The real economy, information feeds the bets that the traders make, the information that they're hearing that maybe things aren't so good, the inventory is starting to build up. So it's symbiotic. I don't know how the system works. It's a miracle. I don't know”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Weighing together the probabilities of the future, and they can do it. They can do it. And they have a good sense. I don't know what they look at, but each of these individuals, multiple independent points of view, have their preferred measures, and they look at them and they sense things are turning, and they start to make those incremental bets, and then other people look at their measures. Somehow it all works together. It's incredible. It's a miracle how decentralized systems can do such a great job at looking out into the future and getting a good sense what will happen.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know how to answer your first question very well. I think you should have Alfonso on macro alf on your show, and he will be able to answer your question as to who banks lend to. I would think just I don't know, everyone, anyone they think they can make money off of the whole economy. So he would be able to answer your question. And your second question, yeah, the Eurodollar future system is one particular aspect of this broad monetary order and it happens to share a name with the shorthand name that we give to the overall monetary creation. And how do these people know? I don't know. It's so fascinating. I think it's a, that's we should have that person on that wrote that book, Wisdom of the Crowds. I don't know how it works. It's incredible. But basically, multiple independent points of view.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Whether or not you can make good on the promises that you made, and that was basically the offshore system. So you have banks doing business onshore with each other, banks doing business offshore and onshore. Then you have banks that are completely on offshore that the Federal Reserve has nothing to do. They can't even see what's going on between a bank and the Cayman Islands and a bank in Singapore, even though those banks are promising to deliver dollars. So there's a gigantic hole, a gigantic gap lacuna that the Federal Reserve has no insight into, let alone regulation, let alone knowledge, let alone sometimes even interest in regulating this dollar creation.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The city of London, you have to do all your business facing outwards, or the Cayman Islands or Gibraltar, or the Seychelles or any number of other offshore jurisdictions. You can't do business with anyone on the Cayman Islands, but you can serve anyone you want from the Cayman Islands. And you know what? We're not going to make you keep any bank reserves. What do you think of that? It's all up to you and how you run your business. And so a lot of people are concerned about bank reserves. And if you don't have enough bank reserves, you can't make enough loans. Well, offshore, you don't know. There's none of those. It's just about confidence that other institutions and borrowers and lenders had in you”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, so nominally in the Internally on shore, the banks have to respond to the bank regulator, the central bank, and play ball, and that's fine, but they'll still push the envelope, of course. But then you go offshore and you go to jurisdictions which have a light touch regulation, and those jurisdictions say you can come up and set up a bank here, you cannot do any business with anyone here.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's shorthand, it's shorthand. Originally it was literally dollars in Europe or Japan, or maybe yen in Europe and francs in Japan. Money that doesn't belong to that country that's available in another country held by a bank or the euro currencies. And so it literally was euro dollars. But then Then, as bankers are wont to do, they just started to expand that definition, pushing the definition, including financial instruments, and expanding rates offshore, onshore, growing their balance sheets. So euro dollar is shorthand for gargantuan bank balance sheet expansion that takes place a lot of the time offshore, but you know, onshore as well. If there's money to be made by banks.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The euro dollar is a shorthand for banks creating money out of thin air at a beyond the view of regulators. No, let's drop that last part. It's shorthand for banks creating money out of thin air Enthusiasm.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so the consumer price shocks that we saw, sure, because consumer price increases are tied to oils very importantly. So we saw those spikes and shocks. But what we didn't see, we saw the bond market look right through those things. They said, this is a supply disruption. And this is going to work itself out. So the bond yields during the early part of the 70s and so forth, they didn't go up with those tremendous spikes. They just kept pace with the expansion in the monetary. Realm, which was gigantic. So that's our thesis it really was an incomprehensibly large expansion of money.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Books, not books. Okay. And the point was we did an episode on this, and it turned out that that petrodollar surge, that OPEC bonanza fit very neatly into the euro dollar system. It wasn't, the euro dollar system was that much bigger. That much bigger, that's where the inflation was coming from. This incredible transfer of wealth from advanced economies to the emerging market oil producers and then the emerging market oil producers taking that money and dropping it into US treasuries and European sovereign bonds or wherever else they put it. gigantic, and it paled in comparison to what was taking place. And we go over some of the numbers, how it just fits very neatly into this gigantic expanding offshore money system. So that's where”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I don't remember what the title of it was, but it had something to do with OPEC or the Petrodollar. So if the audience is interested in what I'm about to say, Petrodollar, go to the Emil Kalinowski YouTube page, search for Petrodollar, our most recent episode was on this topic. And Jeff, because he doesn't want to spend time with people, he'd rather be reading what monetary authorities were saying in the 1970s. He spends all weekend going through transcripts of the FOMC meetings, all manner of reports from the seventies. It's extremely disturbing, but we have a great relationship.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Say they're probably not swelling relative to any sort of trend that we saw previously. So, and then let's say they are swelling. Okay, let's see if they keep swelling because that's what economic growth is, continuous expansion, optimism, hope for the future. I doubt it. We're recording this second half of twenty twenty two. I would be betting that they be contracting. Jeff and going forward. Jeff and I did an episode on this.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I feel like a lot of the inflation that we saw in the 1970s was supply chain driven with the emergence of OPEC in 1973 and 1974 and the huge surge in oil, those sort of deregulation of the oil market, the transfer of power from the old sort of boring commodity oil companies to the sort of high-powered high finance commodity traders. And that was in large scale supply chain driven. So you and Jeff and me, we can all look at commercial bank balance sheets expanding during the 1970s. But to what degree was that actually sort of just reinforcing inflation rather than causing it? Because bank balance sheets are swelling right now.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, yeah, now we're in the middle category where it's like, I kind of agree, kind of disagree. But I would say the inflation that we're seeing now, the consumer price increases that we're seeing now is very due to supply chain issues, to commodity prices, underinvestment in commodities, as well as the sort of Japanification of supply chains where the Japan model that was developed in the 1970s and 1980s of like you're building a car out of the Toyota plant, the wheel is going to arrive 15 minutes before the car is going to be driving off the road. That sort of model and that model is very efficient, but it is very sensitive and not at all resilient to supply side shocks. However, Emil, I have been doing some reading about the 1970s and in particular the most recent book.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To your stream of consciousness? Where were you going to go? You were heading like, I really like what you said here in the beginning. But now let me segue to that part where I very much disagree with you.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'd like to wrinkle your brain here some more. The QE is very supportive for asset markets through narrative, not actual money, not actual taking QE, bank reserves, and leading to investment in the stock market. As Jeff Snyder, who is in the financial services industry often says, we want to buy just like in the Great Depression and the Long Depression, we were buying stocks in the middle of a depression. We want to buy, we want to send the stock market up, the financial services industry wants you to buy and will tell you so, and they'll use the narrative air cover provided by central banks that they're printing, that there's liquidity, a gog, that it's the most liquidity since Noah to get people to buy and invest in the stock market. But it's not actual economic or financial capital market money. That's coming from these central banks.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You make a lot of good points. I want to start with the points that I agree. That I think quantitative easing by itself, central banks buying assets from commercial banks is not sufficient to create meaningful inflation or growth by itself. And I think you saw that in Japan and you saw that in the US where we did have sclerotic growth even as we quantitative easing spigots were turned on. I think they are very useful in quotation marks. The various quantitative easing is very effective at supporting asset markets, but much, much less so the real economy. And I know you and Jeff would probably say not at all.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going on. I don't know if we want to get into that, but you know, China, we're getting so many of our things from Team West are getting so many things from China. So now maybe there's going to be some onshowing. That's probably in the future. But anyhow, my first point stands.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No consumer price orgy like the one we saw until recently because what was different what's the difference? Was it huge government stimulus payments? We had huge government stimulus payments from Japan, from the United States after 2008, huge, the biggest ever until we got to more recent years. They're even huger. But we've had huge government payments. We've had tax cuts, stimmy checks after 2008 people forget cash for clunkers. We had President Bush sending out checks to people. So we've had this before no consumer price bananza until the global logistical system just in time efficiency was electro shocked for many, many months over a year by the COVID. And then I think there's also a little bit of Cold War II.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Experienced a full body dry heave and caused all manner of disruptions, so we had supply constrictions, then we had demand surges, particularly in the United States, demand surges for goods, and how do you resolve that? You resolve it through price. And so that's what we experienced. How do I know it wasn't the central bank printing? Because we've seen central bank printing for twenty years, and it didn't lead to consumer price increases, did it? In Japan, they started in two thousand one QE. Have they had a consumer price bonanza? No. That's why they're on QE 27. 2008 in the United States. Well, it was announced in 2008, 2009 in the United States, a few years later in Europe.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, and I'm dodging your audiences rotten eggs, cabbages and tomatoes as they're throwing them at me, as I said there's no inflation. What a jerk I am, what a jerk. No, but I am saying that they are consumer price increases, but I don't attribute them to monetary inflation. I don't attribute them to the expansion of bank balance sheets, the expansion of the central bank balance sheet, or a continuous stream of central government stimulus payments. That's not what is caused our consumer price increases. I would say consumer price increases have been caused by the global logistical system, globalization to be electroshocked by what happened in 2020 and thereafter where governments turned it on, turned it off, turned it on, turned it off, and a system that was designed for efficiency was”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're well above where we are before the silent depression began, where that's not the case in the Great Depression. But the point I'm trying to make is once the contraction stopped, which I thought would only last, I only thought it lasted a few years. But if you remember, that's good. Once the contraction stopped, then we saw many years of rising stock market prices. But we were in a depression. Same thing in the long depression”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The last point on the silent depression is so there's As you said, the stock market can rise during a depression. I think that SP 500 had something like a 90% drop from 29 to 36 with or maybe 37 with multiple dead cats bounces. But yeah, I take that from 37 to 40, the stock market went up. I don't know. It was a pretty brutal style. I feel like the 2007 to now, including the drop, is not comparable to 1929 to 1940, I feel like.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the stock markets are up. Okay, I'm not as confident about the stock market, whether it should be up or down. I do know in the long and great depressions, the U.S. stock market rose too. I would like to point big picture to the BIS data. And they have derivative data. They have claims, bank claims on other banks. And if you look at that big picture, that data goes back to the 1970s. It grew exponentially and then it got to 2007, 2008, maybe a little bit 2011, some growth, but basically it's been sideways ever since. That's the big picture I want to say that there's not enough money in the system. Now, there is money we haven't wiped it all out, and some of that money is being put to use in different places, but it's not a growth economy.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, in both the long and great depressions the US stock market rose. It collapsed, right? And then it rose for many, many years Yes, you can see expansion in the stock market during a depression or seeing it here now. Are we in a bubble? I guess so. We're venturing away from the economy into financial instruments and investments, which I'm not as capable and opining on. And yet it seems crazy and so be it. Big picture. Okay, I'm very confident that we are in an awful economy and have been for a very long time and it's affected our faith and democracy, happiness, fertility rates, life expectancy, all manner of other things.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“speculation and that is not something you typically see during your depression i'll bring it home and i'll say you know the asset prices have gone up so much uh over the past 14 years and obviously you know the stock market is not the economy we all know that but is that consistent is is a you know a 15 20 you know increase in in the s p 500 year over year is that consistent with the great depression with the silent depression”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not a nuclear winter. We don't need to see that. We don't need to see the first four years of the Great Depression to be in a depression. Our economy still is growing dreadfully. And it's not just me. It's not just me. It's all those people are talking about secular stagnation or new normal or the economists saying economic decline has become a chronic British disease. You can apply that globally to the advanced economy. So yeah, humans are valuing, you know, they do crazy things and oat milk companies get great valuations. Okay.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I say that oat milk is delicious, so it should be valued at $15 billion. It's wonderful. Has your audience tried this? Are you sponsored by them? It's wonderful. I love it. Yes, I think I could, hmm, a couple of points, but let's go with the last point. The point is that our growth rates don't need to be negative for us to be in a depression, just like in those depressions, it wasn't a desolation. It wasn't a dystopian science fiction future. It wasn't Blade Runner or something like that misery. No. It's just our economy is growing very slowly. Too slowly, and it leads to all sorts of social, political, and international problems, but the growth is still there. Money is available for some businesses. The safest ones, predominantly, and some fantastic stories fine.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT