YouSaid · the spoken record

Emil Kalinowski

lines on the record: 82
first: 2022-07-07
most recent: 2022-07-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Funding is actually not small. Because here's one thing that I do believe quite strongly. You can, I'm open to changing my mind, but I do believe that the amount of capital that is available to businesses, not necessarily individual, but to businesses, particularly large businesses, particularly businesses that can sell a dream. Oh my God, Emile, you think electric cars are cool. I've got a company, electric planes, okay. We're going to take over the world. I've got a fleet of electric planes. I feel like I could raise a billion dollars, not that hard. And I actually have seen multiple instances of like a shoe company that's worth $10 billion. Why? This is not something that you see during a silent oppression. And I don't mean to undermine the point that you make about the economy, but I just mean if we were in an economy, a financing system that was stringent, where there was not a lot of money available for businesses, you wouldn't see juice companies or”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I would call me. Please, I'll take your money. But I'm not. I'm just saying they do things that we need. They've stopped doing them. And we're all suffering for it.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The bankers made it work, and they grew their balance sheets exponentially. They will find a way through these regulations, so it's not what we see after two thousand seven that the regulations are stopping the bankers. No. They don't want to participate. They believe there's too much risk out there. And I'm not saying that we should cry for bankers. And no banker is paying me. I'm not we call it somebody, a public speaker for the bankers. I wish they would pay me. They don't. I'm just saying.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Free and loose, and yet they made money and created money well beyond and out of control of the central banks. There are many quotes from the sixties, seventies, and eighties of bankers saying this offshore money creation network is beyond control of official regulators. So it's the regulations are just nice ornaments. If bankers feel there is money to be made, they will make it. And the regulations after the Second World War, I hesitate even call them regulations because that underplays it. It was a full-on government intervention call under the big umbrella of financial repression, capital controls, price controls, rent controls, investment committees that prevented you from buying securities unless you got approval from the government. From going into debt, intense financial repression after the Second World War on a worldwide basis”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fifth most powerful force in the universe is bankers' greed. The first four we know are from physics. The fifth one is banker's greed. They will work through over regulations to make money if there is money to be made. They'll buy the legislators to write the regulations. In the 1940s, fifties and sixties, we had something called financial repression after the Second World War that was so restrictive that it would make these days look like something that's a party that's not restrictive, just a free-for-all.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And to your point there, you said it's a good thing that the regulator stepped in after two thousand seven. They looked what happened since 2000 and they said, you guys are crazy. We're not going to let you do this. Here's The banks don't care about the regulators and the regulations, and I'm being a little bit, I'm using poetic license here, but”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's bananas. That's crazy talk. And I agree with you. No, no, we don't. That was overwrought. The data I'm talking about, you can get from the BIS, Bank for International Settlements. They have data going back to the late 70s. And that data shows that we were on an exponential trend from there. We don't have the data as clearly, as readily available from the 1950s, but we have more reports and anecdotal examples of compounded annual growth rates. And they are similar to what we saw. It was the low to mid teens in bank balance sheet expansion, money creation that was taking place from the mid fifties, really got going in the sixties rocket fuel in the seventies, big slowdown in the eighties, and then absolutely. Off again in the 90s and 2000s, and that's what we got used to over three generations.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are in total agreement, Jack. Set up a trap for me, and I walk into it and I say, I love it, I agree with you. If I was to use the two thousand to two thousand seven time period and say that's normal, that's okay. Let's go.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You going to extend credit at any Other than the safest possible borrowers on the safest possible terms, you're not going to, no, no, you're going to de-risk your balance sheet, your assets, and your liabilities. And that is fine for them, but it's a big problem for us because we're counting on them to provide us the money that we used to run the global economy.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just get back to the way things were until we had another once in four generations crisis four years later, this time the European sovereign debt market went bust almost, right? It was once again assets that we thought were money good, the bankers, sovereign bonds that all of a sudden were not. And then a couple years after that, emerging markets experienced their crisis as well that was on par, if not worse, in some ways than what we saw in the global financial crisis. And then starting in 2018, we began another global dollar credit collateral shortage. It accelerated. We are on the cusp of recessions worldwide when the pandemic stepped in and pushed everyone off the ledge just for good measure. And now we're beginning the fifth. The fifth downturn, regional or global in the last fifteen years. So, if you're a bank,”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To conduct economic transactions, but they had that shock in 2007. What they thought was money good, mortgage-backed securities, wasn't. So they suffered a wound on their balance sheet. Central bankers stepped in, they blew it for over a year, and they didn't fix it eventually. It was an accounting regulation that ended the great financial crisis, the global financial crisis. It was an accounting regulation that said, you don't need to price these things based on market feedback anymore. Why don't we just price it based on what markets would price it if they were healthy? That was the accounting change, March, early March 2009. It wasn't central banks. Nevertheless, the banking system said, okay.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They no longer believe in the expansion of money. Whereas they've had their fingers cinched four times now since 2007 hesitant to go out there. They've also seen how deregulators have responded to each of these crises, and they don't particularly like the way the regulators have responded in terms of competence, I would say they've been incompetent. So by 2007, various formats of money were being created that were being considered money good. Banks' balance sheets were expanding at an exponential pace. Derivatives were used to be able to manage those bank balance sheets. Everything was growing exponentially. The expansion of the bank balance sheet meant the creation of money that the world economy was going to be able to utilize.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Risk versus Return They don't believe that they can make enough return relative to the risk they see out in the economy. They've also”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Four economic actors to be able to transact. That was the proximate cause for our silent depression. But because that disease festered, of course, of course, the monetary disorder affected capital markets, then the economy. But because it festered because we didn't address the root causes that spilled over into politics and society now. So big picture, I'm talking forth turning, I'm talking George Friedman's The Storm before the calm. I'm talking about the end of the established order, basically. That's the big reason why we're experiencing this. The proximate cause, the snowflake, if you will, that caused the avalanche is the lack of money, modern money, credit, collateral in the economy. Not enough of it. Not enough of it for us to be able to expand the economy at growth rates that we've become used to.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's the same reason we fell into depression the last two times, the worldwide depression, by the way. There are two other depressions in between this time period that I'm talking about, but they only affected about half of the world, let's say. The Latin American debt crisis was also in Africa and it was ghastly and it was awful. So that was a depression in Latin America and Africa. And then World War I was a depression for the advanced economies, whereas not so much for the emerging markets. But what is the overriding singular issue that you find in all depressions, multiple lost decades? Lack of money, missing money, not enough money is being created.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's amazing. It's amazing how important growth rates are. And my partner, Jeff Snyder, who is at EuroDAL University, he did a study on this in one of his blog posts. And he showed how even with recessions, GDP presently is trailing what we had earned, what we had achieved in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. So we took little periods, and sometimes there was one. Sometimes there was two recessions in there. Yet still, there was more growth by the Than our nice and calm, but it's not calm, it's stagnant. That's another way of looking at it. Calm, it's a stagnant growth rate. And And I had a wonderful point that I was going to make, but of course, I've forgotten what it is.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not talked about and it's silent. That's why it's the silent depression because the mainstream media doesn't bring our technocrats, our central bankers, our politicians to task. They don't say, what's going on? Why are things so lousy economically? It's silent. If a tree falls in the woods and there's no one there to hear it, it doesn't make it sound. If there's a depression on and the financial media doesn't say anything about it, is there a depression or is it just silent?”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You have a low growth rate year after year after year. The economists calculated that because Britain's economy sucks and stinks, that's my words, not theirs. They're classy. They are eight thousand three hundred and eighty dollars behind trend per person. Each person in Britain should be making $8,380 more. That's through 2019, ladies and gentlemen. You know what happened in 2020. My calculations put that number in Britain at $12,445. Whatever. The point is real people are thousands of dollars behind in income relative to the trend they have come to experience for three generations, 60 years.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Much lower, but remember, ladies and gentlemen, as Einstein told us, Perhaps he didn't, but we say he did that compounding is the most important or most powerful force in the universe. Is that right? Did he say that? Somebody said that that was mathematically inclined.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“After 2007, you can even look at it. It's not very exciting, is it? It's much significantly lower, and it doesn't look too much lower, does it? It doesn't look like it's that.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Two percent is the bare minimum. He didn't say zero. Zero is not the standard by which we should judge. We should judge by our standard growth rate. And in Britain, 2%, whatever it happens to be, it's above zero, well above zero. And if we're not on that trend, then we're in a depression and we have been for 15 years, just like in Japan, their growth rate is positive, but it's miserable.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that they've been doing that since the 70s, apparently. If they didn't double, we would be off trend, right? So it doesn't have to be a negative number. It can be still a positive number and you're off-trend and there's something wrong. Does that make sense, Jack, that we live in a, here, let's see, speaking of the economist, Mr., oh God, who is the famous editor of the economist and central banker? Walter Badget. Yes, he had a very nice quote once. He said that John Bull can stand anything, but he can't stand two percent, meaning you're paying John Bull, which is John Doe for the British people, John Q public John Bull Joe Sixpeck they have it so they're so much classier the Brits”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Real problem. This is the June 11th economist. Anyways, they talk about how their GDP was about 2% before 2007 growing, the compounding growth rate, and zero ever since. I use completely different data set. I came to the same conclusion. And then, so that's one point. Go back further in time, compare the entire 2000 experience and afterwards to what we have experienced for three generations. Here's another way of looking at it. Take the recent growth rates that we've experienced since 2007. Take those and compare them, what happened from 1929 to 1947. Take them and compare them to 1873 to 1896. What you'll see is the, yeah, they're positive. And they're worse than what we saw in the Great Depression. Think about what we see in our transistor chips, right? They are supposed to be doubling every eighteen months, we are told Moore's law.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I would say let's use more data. Let's go back in time even further. Let's find out what the trend was from 1950 to be conservative for our cause my cause here. We could go back to 1945, but there was kind of a boom after that. Let's whatever. The post-World War II order, 1945, 1950, find out what real GDP was, what the growth rate was from that point until 2007. And then compare it to what the real GDP growth rate has been ever since. And you'll find that whereas before it was 2%, now it's close to zero. At least it is in Britain. The latest economist, not the latest, the latest on the Cayman Islands, because I get all my economists by bottle. But anyways, Britain's...”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A depression, and we couldn't talk about not just the economic things being off trend, but also things like birth rates, fertility rates, life expectancy, Faith in democracy, happiness actually. All inflected and have been on a downward trend since two thousand seven thousand eight.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We hit a recession, we rebound above trend, we get back to that trend, and we're on it and we go along on our merry way. A depression is a permanent break if there are any mathematically ink people out there. It's a unit route that breaks the model. We are now off trend. There's no getting back to that trend. things are slow like in Japan ladies and gentlemen let's look to Japan they called that the lost decade except now we're in our fourth lost decade in Japan well some people call it secular stagnation or the new normal or the lost decade that's because they don't have the courage as leading economists to come out and say we blew it we're in a depression we promised that we would never be in a depression again that's the whole point of economics and the technocracy and central banking and we blew it and we're in”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've always had these sort of recoveries. If you exclude the discontinuities, and Jack, I'll give you three guesses in the first two don't count which discontinuities he excluded, the depressions. So outside of a depression,”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Ghastly and miserable is the Great Depression, therefore it is not a depression. No, a depression is when we are way, way, way off trend and we can never get back to it. Milton Friedman had something called the plucking model. I don't know if you as a guitar player, but he would say, you've got a guitar and you've got a string. You pull it down, recession, you let go, it comes back to that trend level and it goes above. Recovery, boom, and then it comes back to that steady state that it always was on. And he called that the plucking model. But basically what he did is he went back, he looked at American history and he said, well.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We are in agreement, Jack. We did come out of the recession. We didn't come out of the depression. So yes, a recession, people have different definitions. It's not quite certain what the actual definition is. But we started growing again. The economy was above zero. But zero is not the standard by which we should judge economic human progress. So while yes, we had positive numbers, they were pathetic, they were miserable, ghastly, dreadful, worse than the Great Depression, worse than the Long Depression. And just because our last depression was great and the contraction was catastrophic early on doesn't mean we need to reenact what happened in the Great Depression to have depression. That's one of the problems, sorry. That's one of the problems that people have when they think of, well, it's not as...”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not a spoiler. It's not a spoiler, but there's one scene when Tom Cruise in a spacesuit comes back down to Earth and he walks into a diner in the middle of rural America and he asks them, where am I? Because he was in space. Now he's on the ground. God knows where. And the little child says Earth, which I thought was very funny, but it would have been also funny if Tom Cruise kept going and said, what year? You know, just to kind of keep playing like that he's really from outer space. But we're not here to talk about the space-time continuum, are we, Jack? I'm sorry. Keep us on track, Jack.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There you can see it in all manner of economic and monetary accounts. The great financial crisis began and we never recovered. We never recovered. The economy has grown since then pathetically, pathetically. It's grown dreadfully. And just like the long depression and the Great Depression, we have seen economic growth, just like in those depressions. A depression is not constant contraction, but it's so miserable, so miserable that actually this depression, many countries are trailing where we were in year 15 of those two last depressions, we're trailing those two depressions right now in 2021. We're recording this in some year that's not 2021, Jack, you'll have to tell the audience, but I have data through 2021, and we're trailing. Those last two depressions.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're not sort of I am out there face first, no pants, no net telling people on Twitter at Emil Kalinowski that we are in a depression, a worldwide depression, the third one of the past one hundred fifty years. The first one was called the Long Depression eighteen seventy three to eighteen ninety six, the next one nineteen twenty nine, nineteen forty seven, the Great Depression, and this one, ladies and gentlemen, is the Silent Depression, and it didn't begin with the COVID, the pandemic. It began in two thousand seven with a press release by BNP Paraba on august ninth, two thousand seven about one fourteen AM Eastern Time, and they said, you know what, we cannot value these three money market funds. And we've had trouble valuing them for the past two days.”
2022-07-07 · Forward Guidance · We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT