YouSaid · the spoken record

Eric Pachman

lines on the record: 127
first: 2024-06-17
most recent: 2024-06-17
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Document. Like, unless you literally want to, you know, unless you enjoy hammering your head against the wall, like I don't recommend doing this. But we're going to have to crowdsource and go to this eventually. But I started reading these methodology documents”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That all makes sense, and I agree with you that probably is the best explanation for what's happening, but I wrote a report on this, which is free to the public on the website. Like, I took this and I compared that metric to PCE's version, but it's actually called Net Motor Vehicle Insurance and something else. But it's their version of, and that's on my PCE tool, you'll be able to see it there as well. And it's a totally different story. It's like a 7% year-of-year increase. And by the way, they trended together with one another very, very closely, really through 20, I can't remember off top of my head, but it's in the tool like through 2016, 2017, 2018. They trend very closely. Then they blew apart coming out of COVID. The two benchmarks just went polar opposite directions, you know. And so the natural thing that I wanted to do, and I wrote all about this, is I'm like, okay, well, let me dig into the methodology.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So motor vehicle insurance April 2024 relative to 2023, so year over year, YOI, is up 22.6%, even though it's only 2.6% of CPI, it has contributed 58 basis points, 59 basis points of CPI. So it is responsible for 18% of the CPI, even though it's only 2.6%. And I think antidote what I've read, driving fell off a cliff during 2020. So premiums went down. But then, and the prices of car went up. So the business changed, but now they're raising prices. Progressive, this is progressive. This is Geico earned by Berkshire Hathaway. Those types of companies, yeah, they're raising prices aggressively.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if none of us have a crystal ball and can't forecast any of these, then it's my view that we should look at like a number that comes in, say maybe a little bit higher than you think. But if it's within plus or minus one standard deviation, I'm like, I don't know. That pretty much is noise. Unless there's some really nice trend that's forming and everything. So you have motor vehicle insurance that's a three plus standard deviations of motor meaning right now. And so there is something wild going on here. And everybody knows it, right? I mean, everybody's pointing to this.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Responsible for 43.6 of all inflation. And so I actually think that CPI is like super straightforward to analyze right now. I mean, I spend almost no time each month. And people ask me, like, what are you looking for in the next print? I'm like, big bubbles, that's all I'm looking for. You know, look at my tool. And so you have OER, you have rent, which OER rent trend almost perfectly together if you look back at them. And motor vehicle insurance. So if you hover over motor vehicle insurance, this is like a really wild thing that's going on right now. So when you hover over something in this dashboard, you will see standard deviation bans. And the reason why I did that is because I want, you know, people could get really kind of excited one way or another about a month over month change or a year-over-year change in one category. But there's some categories that are naturally highly.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you could, like hypothetically speaking, how much could you rent your house out for? So that's the survey. That's what it is. There were all a bunch of adjustments and everything they put into Blender outpops the number or how they pour the number. So that single line item is a 25, roughly 25% weight of all of CPI, which I wanted that to come across viscerally to people. Like, look, at this stage, CPIU is 3.36, but hover over that. And out of the 3.36, I have this category that I made up called inflation impact. It's 1.463 of that. So if you take all of the inflation impacts on this chart and you add them all up, you're going to get a number that's pretty close to the 3.36. It's not perfect because the data is not perfect. But that's basically telling you that that one category.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's start with CPI. So CPIU, that's what's published at the start of the month. This could come out next week. The reason why I, and this was the first visualization that I put together for public consumption, the reason why I put that together is because when I was posting,”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is what business support services is telemarketing and phone calls, and then the other one, employment services, that is temporary help services and professional employer organizations. So that's people trying to help other people find a job, I guess. And I guess with LinkedIn and all sorts of indeed.com, that makes sense that that also is an industry whose employment is contracting. All right, Eric. We've done a deep dive. People have gotten checked that out. If they are professionally doing this and they want to get an edge or if they're just a geek and they are really interested in it like I am, they've got to check that out. Now let's go to your inflation CPI PCE calculator. And by the way, Eric, this is how we first got in touch. You have been down to the wire doing this work on the employment, but your original work was on CPI versus PCE. So we'll switch and go over to that tack. But yeah, what are your broad findings there?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, they've gone away, right? And so you won't see that right off the bat. What I'm really hoping people do is they say, all right, I'm going to spend the next 10 minutes just kind of like hovering, hovering, hovering, hovering, and like just seeing what's interesting because it really is an education and how much the economy has changed over the past 30 years.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and one thing that it's a little bit harder to see because I did want to show you the absolute change, but some percentage changes are just absolutely dramatic. Like if you go and you try to find newspaper publishing, like any of that kind of stuff.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's document preparation services, telephone call centers, telephone answering services, telemarketing bureaus, and business service centers. So it's telemarketing kind of. And that makes sense. That industry is being automated. There's a lot of automation going on there.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I don't know the answer to that off top of my head, but what I would do to research that, and we can do it live right now if you want, is I would take that NAICS code 5614. I would open up a new window, go over to the census.gov website and type in 5614, and it'll tell you exactly what it is.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, there's two pieces of industries that have lost jobs and are continuing to lose jobs month by month. Business support services and employment services. Both are Part of the macro sector, the super sector, professional and business services. But to what, you know, I have no idea, but and it's okay if you don't know, but what are business support services and what are employment services?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Really important. I don't have the lookup connected yet, but if you go to our website and scroll up, you can click on a link that will take you over to the census.gov website and you can hammer that or just type that right in and it will tell you exactly what it is. So that to me is one of the most helpful kind of like little hidden Easter egg gems within this thing is because like you could be looking at this and have the exact same discussion that we just had and be like, well, isn't this this? That census.gov lookup lookup table will tell you exactly what this industry is. I mean, to the best of the ability of the internet, right? So I've done that many, many times where I'm like, I really have no idea what this means. And you flip over to that table. And that's where you can really get some insight on that. Eventually, I want to link that database into this so it comes right up in the tool. You don't have to leave the tool, but I'm not there yet.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's actually a really good point. So you know how we can tell go to the hover overdot again. So there's 600,000 employees at the peak. Now go down to the other one. To the other one, that is 50,000. So no. This is far smaller than that Look, at the end of the day, and this is another kind of, so by the way, by the way, stay here for a second. If you look at that pop-up and you see the NAICS code NISCS code 236115.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe they've got more. Sorry, there's three categories there's new housing for sale builders, there's new multifamily housing construction minus excluding for sale builders and then a single new single family housing construction excluding for sale builders isn't every home builder a four-sale builder?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You can look if you look at display level seven. What I would do is go down to the highlight industry and start typing the keyword in. So I just type new in there, N-E-W. And yeah, there it is. New single family housing construction except for sale builders. So you look at that and you're like, huh, I mean, I just saw this this morning and I was like, is the same thing going on in this industry? I don't know much about this industry, but is the same thing going on here that's going on with foil producers where like, you know, we would just make much more money if we focused on margin, but we're just hammering out homes, you know, and then creating this. But like the jobs have not come back. And maybe they've got more fish.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so if you go back one month, then you'll see all of the nitty gritty detail. It's either on level six or seven. But if you look at new home or new residential construction or whatever, that has not recovered to 2008 levels, like not even close. And so...”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For sure, the production per rig is down a lot, but it's not down a lot since 2021. I mean, like the efficiency hasn't stepped change improved since before COVID. It's step change improved since 2008. But I'd say that the major driver in why that's declined so much is simply the discipline. You know, everybody is kind of like signaled to each other that like, look, like let's focus on margin. Interestingly enough, and this kind of, I don't know if you want to transition over at some point and talk about CPI or whatever. But interestingly enough, another one, and I think this is down on level six or maybe even level seven, is new home construction. And when you actually go and drill down to that level, you can see that, oh no, you're not, oh, by the way, you're not going to see it in May. You got to go to April because May doesn't have all of the granular data. Again, that's one month in a reverse.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Prices are good. Let's drill as much as we can. Get as much oil out of the ground. We crack crater prices just back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. That all stopped after COVID. And you can actually see that in the data if you, I don't know exactly what display level it is, but hopefully people will search for it. And they'll find oil and gas drilling activities and you'll see that it really has not come back much.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, right now, I just happen to be looking at April 2024 five year comparison period display level five. And I see clothing and clothing accessory retailers, which just died during COVID and then really hasn't come back. I see business support services, which has come down a lot. If you drill down into that, you'll see it's temporary help services, which are declining a lot. Interestingly on there, it's skilled nursing homes or skilled nursing care facilities, which is down a lot. I mean, it's the general theme to me is that oil and gas has come down quite a bit. And there shouldn't be a surprise for people that pay attention to the industry. They all got whacked during COVID when oil prices turned negative. Everybody, this industry, for as long as I can ever remember it. And I worked at this. Like that's how I got my start, you know, this industry is just ruthless competitive supply demand, right?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I mean, the cool thing about this viz is like just go up there, and I don't know what time period you want to look over, but let's look five years. Just look at what is the most read because the color red, deep red means larger.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sending this off to private entities manage care, pharmacy data managers, so on and so forth, who are then just doing whatever anyone with these incentives would do. They're trying to figure out how do I use this program in order to make the most money out of it and then throw Medicaid expansion on top of that and the problem just exacerbated. And the good news is that I think there's been a lot of advocacy and transparency around this recently about how bad it got. And so some of those things are starting to unwind. Like New York recently just said we're taking this program in-house. But then, you know, state government employees have to go up in order to administer this, but ultimately it should save money for the state in the long run. You're just not going to see that within the labor data. You have to put all the pieces together within that.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And again, nothing illegal. This was all just, you know, brilliant minds within these companies that are like, how do we grow shareholder value? And look at all of these knobs we can turn. Like, so going back to the Fed, they got one knob. If you're within a pharmaceutical benefit manager with an insurance company, you have hundreds and hundreds of knobs that you can dial up or down or up or down in order to increase or decrease your profit. So it's easier to make money in Medicaid on one part of the supply chain. And that part the pharmacy benefit manager side. But it's harder to make that money on Medicare on that side. And so you have to shift it over and make the money on the insurance side of it. And so once they're all vertical integrated, well, now all bets are off on what's going on. So government expenses are going up. The government doesn't have employees to like watch over everything that's going on, right? As you can see within the data. And so they're...”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Managed care outsource this to them, sign a contract with them. But then what happened is that Centine, or the managed care companies, they sign a subcontract with the pharmacy benefit management companies, which over time they merged together. And so you also have this huge problem of vertical integration within space. So like Etna and CBS, that was an issue, you know, and I'm saying, again, this is my own personal opinion. But when you have the government is reliant on Etna and then wants a third party agreement with CBS Carimark, and now they're owned by the same company, and by the way, the government had no view, and I've sought this directly, the government had no view into the contracts of the subcontractor. And so there was all sorts of shady stuff that was actually going on there, like, you know, money that was being shifted around and stuff.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. So, what I'm saying government spending, I mean, you know, government programs like the ballooning of Medicare, the ballooning of Medicaid, like staying on the healthcare side of things. And then what Medicaid has done as well. And so just briefly to explain Medicaid, super high level Medicare, elderly people, 65 and older, generally speaking. Medicaid, very, very low income. And where basically there's nothing that you have to pay out of pocket if you're a patient there. What happened is as Medicaid expanded, state government employees weren't expanding at the right rate to administer these programs. And so what they did is there's this entire industry that ballooned called managed care. And that basically just means that I as a state, I'm like, oh my gosh, I have this huge program that I have to administer. Let me just fix my cost and go to an insurance company. They can administer this entire thing for me. So like Centene is an example of a company that does this, right? And so I'm going to go.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But there's no more transparency on it, right? And so within that complexity has become the opportunity for new consulting opportunities, for just new business opportunities as middlemen, like not physicians that are directly interacting with patients, not pharmacists that are directly interacting with patients. For everyone in the middle of the call it healthcare complex that is part of delivering the services and ultimately taking a piece of the pie. So I think that's where, at least in the data you see the swelling, and that also jibes with kind of my studying of the space.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Part D in 2006, then the Ford Full Air Act came in, and then Medicaid expansion, and so on and so forth. And with all of these government programs came more and more and more and more metrics. And so if you actually talk to somebody who's working in a hospital, there's just like dozens and dozens, a series of metrics that they're held to by these government organizations, which ultimately their reimbursements are going to be dictated by that. Then they have to actually hire administrators to kind of keep track of all these metrics, make sure they're on track with the metrics, and hire consultants to figure out how to game the metrics. Not like I'm saying people are gaming it, but any metric can be gamed if you want to. And so, you know, you have a swelling in the complexity. This is what it is. It's just like the healthcare system now compared to 1990 is vastly more complex.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, I just did this analysis the other day, you know, prescription drug expenses within this country since the beginning of 1990 have gone up by over 1200%. The entities whose job it is to ultimately control that if the incentives were right within the system are the Farsi Benefit Managers and the drug manufacturers. Pharmacy benefit manager employment has gone up employees have gone up. And this is all in the data set. You can look at it. I think it's on level six or seven. They've gone up by 126%. That's the administrators and middleware, right? The drug manufacturers have gone up by 60-something percent. The retail pharmacy employees have gone up by 15% over the same period of time. And if you look at it since the beginning of 2000, they're down. So we actually have less people face to face interacting with directly with patients than we do. Despite the fact that we have like an over a thousand percent increase in prescription drug cost. So, and you could also, I'm not as much of an expert on the hospital side, but I have a lot of friends in the hospital world. And we expanded Medicare.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is the reason why I have screaming from the rooftops right now, that like there is a reason why these charts look like the atmospheric carbon charts and just keep going up. Just like we all know the reason why that's going up. And at this stage, I don't think it's me coming out with my crystal ball, like trying to make a prediction. I think it's just understanding the inner workings of how healthcare jewelry works and how the money flows within this country. That leads you to believe that like, look, there could be some bumps in the road. It could come down and everybody will celebrate and everybody will be like, and the Fed will cut and whatever, but this thing is just going to keep marching along and become a larger and larger and larger part of the economy.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Literally, you can take two old, old, old, ancient generic drugs that are each like pennies per pill. You take them, you combine them together into one pill, and then you can bring that to market as a new brand name drug and charge hundreds of dollars per pill for that. And then you can go to the PBM and say, hey, look, I know this drug is garbage, but you know what? I'll give you a huge rebate if you actually put this under formulary and get it in the hands of all these people. And they're like, great, we like rebates because we get to keep a portion of those. And so then they'll add that to the formulary. And then all of a sudden, boom, it's now in the American marketplace. You know what happens in other countries? They look at that drug and they're like, that's the stupidest thing ever. Like the country itself is managing what drugs can get dispensed to their population. And they're like, well, if these two drugs are five cents each, why wouldn't we just issue two prescriptions for this rather than this one drug that's combined?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It comes to delivering healthcare services and massively overpays and massively overemployees. But is the engine of global innovation for healthcare? I mean, where are the best hospitals in the world? You have rare procedure. You're going to Mayo Clinic. You're going to Cleveland Clinic. You're flying from wherever you are in the rest of the world. And if you have the money to do it, you're coming here. I think that I was much more naive maybe three, four years ago. And I was like, this is bad, this is good. It's not that. It's just that we have a system that's designed to innovate. We do not have a system that's designed to be efficient. It's designed to be horribly inefficient and drive way more money than is necessary to companies that then will reinvest that and come out with some very innovative products and other products that we don't need, right, at all. There's something in the drug world called line extensions. Sorry to go so deep here.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Then secondly, a business. We have made the decision with healthcare, which is driving the strength in our economy. Healthcare is a business first, and then hopefully they'll figure out a way to deliver all this accessibility and, you know, make it cheap enough or whatever. But first and foremost, it's a business. And we're really the only developed country that has made that decision. I do have to say there are benefits to that. Like look at where all of the drug innovation is happening in this country. And frankly, if there wasn't so much money available, we wouldn't be getting treatments for rare diseases. We wouldn't have hope on Alzheimer's drugs. Like we wouldn't have hope on people from other countries don't have access to those drugs. They just don't, you know. And the only reason, again, that they even exist is because we're funding it. And so we have a system that is very good at being highly inefficient.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's totally common. I mean, like, if you look at Australia, if you look at Denmark, if you look at the UK, if you look at any other developed country, which has made a very, very different decision than we have in this country, right? They have made a decision. And this is ultimately how I think this is this simple. Healthcare is a human right.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's where the real game is about the increase in premiums over time. That's where everybody's making the money. Even the healthcare brokers that are supposed to be helping you through this process of how do I even select, they're making a percentage of the list price. And so you look across the entire supply chain and you're like, how do we get here? Everyone that is responsible except the patient for delivering services to the patient benefits from higher costs on charge masters, benefits from higher list prices. I mean, there's a reason why I compared back in prior life. I compared the list price of the average brand name drug. And these are the drugs that are on patent. In the US versus the list price in Australia. And in Australia, it was 20% of the price.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But think about a longer term, longer term, they're just going to go back in. Like I used to run a business with 200 and something employees. And so in that individual year, yes, they have the incentive to actually drive the prices down. But if they do that in each individual year, they can't come back to you in the next year. And everybody who's listening who runs business will know this because it's very painful and say your premiums just went up by 30%.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Makes money off of higher list prices. Insurance companies, they're making a percentage of list price, PBMs a percentage of list price. In some cases, pharmacies percentage of list price. Governments get rebates based on a percentage of list price.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so, I mean, look like that. I know the PBM industry very, very well, and so I've seen this. I've literally matched up individual claims between pharmacies and between payers. And by that, I meet an employer. And you'll see like a pharmacy got $20 and the employer paid $2,000. It's very, very common practice. In essence, that level of opacity, while it may not be that kind of crazy, and there may not be this level of like pure just like trading arbitrage that's going on outside of that, it's similar in hospital, right? I mean, like go and pull up a charge master. Like, look up your local hospital and pull up what's called a charge master file. And you will see the list prices on all of these procedures. And you'll be like, what is this? Like monopoly money? I mean, like, you know, they're ridiculous numbers, but they start to make sense when you realize that every single player throughout the supply chain is incentivized.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Audience, especially in the drug pricing side, you have a system of arbitrage. But in the markets, all the pricing is transparent with arbitrage. So if you have like, you know, I'm going to assemble synthetically a basket of, you know, these equities and then it should match that and it doesn't match the overall index. I can go ahead and do that. And then boom, I've corrected that arbitrage. Well, imagine for a moment that you controlled the prices though. So like I, the one that's making the trade on that arbitrage, actually control the buying and selling price. And I'm hiding that price from the buyer and the seller. That's how it works. It's exactly how it works. And that's a system that can generate its own profit.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's basically like going into the grocery store and saying, Oh, there's all this crap on the shelf, right? Here's the boss of cheerios and this and that. Depending on who you are and what time you walk into the store, take the price off of those things and then make it one of those kind of like digital pricing things and then flip. It just flips from one to the next. One moment it's a dollar. The next moment it's $70. The next moment it's 50 cents. The next moment it's $100. And I'm not exaggerating with like the numbers that I chose there like boxes of cereal in the healthcare world or at least in the drug world. And I'm talking about cheap generic drugs could be marked up by 10,000%. It's very, very common. And then there are these discounts that are negotiated behind closed doors that are locked into contracts with a pharmacy and contracts with the employer. And neither side can talk to each other. And so what you have, and this hopefully will resonate with your...”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Correct, correct. And it will only get more powerful as time goes along. And I think it's because, and we can get into this if you want to go to my background, but healthcare in this country is a system of opacity, pricing is unknown. It's highly inflated, and then there are hidden rebates on the back end. And the pricing is variable, right? You know, for example, let's just talk about on the drug side of it. The pharmacy benefit managers that are administering and responsible for basically your employer's pharmacy benefits. They may have a thousand different pricing lists for the same exact set of drugs.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So long term, that can be bad if the US healthcare system is very inefficient as it is. So more and more people have to enter that healthcare sector and the Federal Serve can't control that. I could see how that could be a bad thing, but short term, if you want to avoid a recession, it sounds like healthcare is just going to keep hiring and hiring and hiring. And that could, as it appears to, as it has over the past few years, blunt the Fed's tools of causing recession.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where I'm coming, that may be a little bit more new, is that I kind of think the same thing's happening on the labor side. Or I think it may be early, maybe I'm five years too early, but it will at some point in time if we don't make very large changes to how healthcare is delivered in this country will eventually, I think, break the linkage between the Fed's fine-tuning of labor within this economy and that metric. And then maybe we'll just adjust the metric and say, well, now we're looking at labor ex-medical care, and then everybody will be happy. We'll have a new core labor measure that doesn't include healthcare.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This one kind of giant knob that the powers that be have. And I think we're seeing this. This is not kind of like an out of consensus view that we're seeing this on the inflation side. Does that knob really work anymore? Like, I'm not so sure. Like, it certainly works if we need to go from 8% down or 0% up when it comes to inflation. Does it work going from 3.5% to 2.5%? I mean, we have this OER stuff, like owner's equivalent rents of residences, weird survey methodology. What's going on with auto insurance? I mean, we got all these random things that were like, does the Fed really have control over that? You know, do we just have to wait longer? Is that what we're being told? People are saying that, right? That's not kind of how the consensus view.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe this is the cycle where it breaks the metric. Maybe it's next cycle. Maybe it's a cycle after that. But at what point in time, and this is what my initial interest was, is like, at what point in time does the Fed no longer have control over this metric? At least on the margin. I'm not talking about like jobs are terrible or jobs are great and we need to like move this in wide swaths. Like I'm talking about the fine-tuning that happens right now You can make an argument that we are approaching The level of healthcare intensity within our economy is approaching the level where we could start to lose control of this. If we keep adding 80,000, 100,000 jobs every single month at the same clip, you know, it's only a matter of time before this thing eats up the economy and the job growth becomes most of the job growth. And so that's a concerning thing for me because I think everybody's looking at these metrics as kind of a result of”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so the best forecast for it is for it to kind of continue to just march to the P to the same drummer. And when you look at 1990, I think the healthcare and social assistance, which you're looking at right now, that level three, it was 8% of all jobs. It's now 14% of all jobs. It's grown at a clip of 126%. If you exclude that from non-farm, that's grown at a clip of like 30-something percent. And so this is outgrown the economy by four of X. And so at some point in time, if we just for argument's sake, say, okay, macro, this is immune to macro movements.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has not been much job growth in government from what I remember using the tool. I looked at it and there are far more jobs in local government, as you would expect in the R&D and federal. So even though the absolute jobs are increasing the fastest and local, if you look at it on a percentage basis, it's actually state government that's increasing the fastest and federal is kind of somewhere in between the two. So that's been another interesting takeaway. I think like, you know, hopefully just tool will help people kind of like move away from the recency bias to be like, oh, you know, actually there hasn't been a lot of government job ads over like a very long period of time. Whereas maybe we should look at this healthcare situation a little bit more deeply. Because like, you know, I don't have to, and I hope you get into this, but like this is driven by very unique structural design of how these companies make money. And there's no kind of forecast for that changing outside of massive regulation.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's really just getting back to where it was pre COVID. Maybe it's a little bit higher now. But overall, that really hasn't been like a major change from kind of where we were pre-COVID to where we were after COVID. So people there are like don't have much better job opportunities now than they did before, even though that was a huge driver of all the job growth over like, say, 2022 and everything. The other thing is that this year, government job growth has been really a huge driver of these numbers. I think one of the cool things that I just learned using the tool is that if you go down from level two where it's just government to level three, it breaks it out into state government, local government. You know, a lot of the job growth is coming from local government. And then what I like to do is I like to pivot it kind of going back, okay, here's one month, here's one year, here's two years, three years, five years. If you actually look it over a 10-year trend line, like they're really...”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We already talked about the warehousing storage, we talked about the professional business services. I mean, you know, when I looked at, I was, I initially started off wanting to understand how the economy change, you know, pre-COVID to post-COVID because stuff got accelerated so fast. And I think the number was something like 75% of all jobs came from healthcare, this professional business services largely driven by some of the industries we already talked about and this general warehousing and storage. And when we were just looking, if we had kind of a more recency bias around the numbers, we would look at leisure and hospitality. And you looked at those massive job-gaining numbers kind of going back a year ago and so on and so forth, whereas they're just adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. And then you're like, oh my gosh, like when's this ever going to slow down? But I think what this tool helps you do is put that in perspective.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I can tell what are some other broad conclusions that you have drawn from analyzing data? One is healthcare is a secular grower and so far has been much less sensitive to interest rate hikes and a cyclical slowdown that has for other parts of the economy.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT