YouSaid · the spoken record

Eric Pachman

lines on the record: 127
first: 2024-06-17
most recent: 2024-06-17
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Impart my own biases on it because it's the last thing that I want to do. And really help communicate this to people that want to use it in different ways is a really, really challenging endeavor. It was much easier with inflation, honestly, because like I frankly didn't care what people thought. I was like, look, man, I just want to know if this number is 3.5. I want to know what adds up to that. Like, that's all I want to know, right? That's pretty simple. It seems like that's all that matters. And so that one kind of the story told itself to me. But with this, I really struggle, you know, trying to figure out how do I capture all of this, not lose people, not shy away from the details, but then also give something that people will use that's helpful. And to hear that from you, I mean, it really means a lot to me because, you know, I've worked pretty hard on it.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, that really, really means a lot. I mean, like I said, this whole inception analogy that I gave you, I really do view this as art. Because when you are looking at a database, you're like, what's the story? What's the story here? And the answer is like, depending on the user, like many of the people that are listening right now, they may be like, the story is 272,000. And I want to be able to help people that are interested in that story the month over month story. But then other people, healthcare policy workers or whatever it may be, or, you know, just people are generally interested in the history and how this economy has changed. There may be a different story. And so taking that and then figuring out like, how do I create one visual that can help address all of these stories that will not hide the data and not basically?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Health practitioners, which I mean, maybe that's a good thing because it's not as taboo to go get therapy, or maybe it's a bad thing, seeing that we need more of those services. But healthcare is just littering the upper echelon of that list. I mean, it's really, really transformed meaningfully.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The industry lookup tool, which I've linked this on our website. So if you're interacting with the visualization through our website, there is a link to basically it's a census.gov site where you can look up the NAICS code. And so you can look at whatever that NAICS code is on our visualization, pull it out of that, and then go to that website, drop it in, and be like, what is services for the elderly? And it turns out it's like adult daycare centers, it's services for disabilities. It's stuff that you just would not expect that to be when I look back to the beginning of 1990. It's gone up like a thousand percent, you know, since the beginning of 1990. It was an industry that did not exist at the beginning of 1990. Fun fact, you know, one of the only things that has gone up faster at a higher percent rate than services for the elderly and disabled people?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, interestingly, though, these have leveled off, though. I mean, like, that's kind of something to, I think, if leveling off is a good thing, right? You know, we're all looking for moderation in jobs. It appears that whatever the Fed has done has actually had somewhat of an impact on the professional business services, like even these super hot areas like AI, you're just not seeing them in the numbers yet. You know, you're not seeing like another step change in growth that we saw kind of coming out of COVID. That's not happening in healthcare. So healthcare is accelerating at an even faster pace coming out of COVID. And that's where I really think the focus should be. And that's where I really think the story is, you know, because everything else, like it seems to at least be somewhat macro sensitive, except healthcare, except healthcare. You know, you have mentioned that services for the elderly and disabilities. Like, I actually had to go to”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so that's my overly simplistic kind of 30,000 foot view of like why is management consulting going up as well? Because there's just a lot of change going on right now. I don't have to tell you that, you know, everybody that looks at NVIDIA stock has that.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We go, yep Computer system design and related services as the 358,000 increase. We have scientific research and development. That's the one that really took off, which a lot of this is kind of the biologics drug development. My take on the management consulting is, and this is a very kind of like overly simplistic, you know, think about how management consulting, like where do they thrive? They thrive when there are big changes within industry. And like, how are you going to adapt to the change in AI? How are you going to adapt to the change from oral solids to biologics? These are big time changes within that are, you know, groundbreaking within industries. And so that's where management consulting comes in is like, hey, we can help you.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“By Yeah, so I have less, like I could probably talk more to the healthcare side with based on my experience. But like here's my thinking on management consulting. Again, just by two cents for what they're worth. If you also look at, and this is really over the last 10 years and so on, so forth, coding, obviously.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's the biggest increase for that subsector. General warehousing storage, which is part of transportation and warehousing. The second one is services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, which is part of private education and healthcare services. But interestingly enough, management consulting over the past five years.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wow. Look at that. You know what you can do with that chart? You can take Amazon's employees and you can overlay that on top of this. It almost goes down to the exact same time that Amazon started laying people off if they're rationalizing your network. It's fascinating, right? And so then you think about it and you're like, okay, well, let's say that's just like not a true causality there. But like five years ago, how often were you able to get goods within something you ordered in an hour? And like, how do you think it happens? Is it magic or is it just that there's a lot more warehousing and storage facilities that are much? And those are working people.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, think about what Amazon's done, right? I mean, right. You're just seeing the flip side of that coin with the Amazoning of the, and I mean, another cool thing that you're seeing is like the largest growth, and by the way, you can actually go and select the comparison period. So say you want to, you're like not interested in one month. You want to know how these things have changed over the last five years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years. I can change that. And if you look at pre-COVID to post-COVID, the number one growth industry has been warehousing in storage.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I went down to level six and I was like, this is what I plan on rating. I was like, you know, I wanted to find the needle in order to find the needle in the haystack. And so I literally just started typing needle, like the keyword needle in highlight industry. And there literally is an industry called sewing and needlework. And if you do that right now, it will basically just pop up and show you exactly which industry that is. And if, you know, I don't know what people are going to do with this data, but like I'm like jazzed that like, you know, you even can get a hold of it. So I'm sure that there's some, there'll be someone out there that's like, man, I just wish there were more. Good, right? It's probably worth considering. I had a feeling it was”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. So if you go over to the right and hover over general merchandise retailers, that's retail trade. And here are all the ones that are the industries that are driving things within retail trade. And then so on and so forth. And it only gets more interesting as you go down. Like if you go down to level five and six, there's like almost 300 industries in level six. And so you can see all these tiny little slivers of things, which, I mean, I'm actually, so I haven't put out the, well, I've published this on the website. I haven't put out like the how-to report yet. And so I like using a lot of humor in my reports because one thing I'm not good at is being briefed. And so to kind of keep people engaged. You figured that out by now.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And now you see the true value of a tree map. So let me just A little bit of time. A tree map is basically showing you the hierarchy of the data as well. So everything over to the left is the private education and healthcare, whatever they call it, you know, super sector. So when you drill down to this level four, I think you can really see the benefit of what's called the tree map, which is a data visualization technique that is really appropriate for complex hierarchical databases, which is exactly a perfect description of this database. So what you'll see is like you'll see a group of these boxes, which are, and you're hovering over right now. So you can see it says private education and health services. That's what's called the super sector. And then social assistance, ambulatory healthcare services, hospitals, nursing, residential care, those are all industries at the level four of this mine shaft that we're working our way down within that. Then you'll see these kind of thicker white bars that are separating that super sector from the other super sectors over.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All healthcare. So there's this broad brush called healthcare and private education. You're zooming in and saying, I mean, just it looks like 80 to 90% of this is actually healthcare and social assistance rather than private education. So this category is called healthcare and education, but really it's mostly healthcare.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Arrears, but what I wanted to point you to was see how healthcare and social assistance is driving all of this. Like private educational services is largely plateaued, inspected its COVID peaks, whatever. If you go back to April so you can just go to the Choose Base period drop down. Switch that to April. So this number was revised. It was revised down to like 165,000. 100,000 of that was healthcare and social assistance. So like this is the 800 pound gorilla within our jobs data at this point in time.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Detail for pretty much the better part of five years before I joined Bane Creek. But before we go there, because I want to go there, go and change the display level to three. Think of this as kind of like, you know, we're getting on the top level, top level zero of like a mine. And then we're just going down into this murky, darker mine shaft, right? And so level two is the level that you're going to see in the reports from BLS. Like if you go and you look at the employment situation report today, you'll see all the level two. You'll see some of level three. Well, what people don't necessarily know is that this goes all the way down to level seven. Now, there is a lag in reporting. So what you'll see is that, you know, you'll get everything for level three. Most of the stuff for level four. But then as you get down to level five, six, seven, the stuff for May will just drop off. It will fall off. They don't report it. So you have to really go back to April in order to see that. So it's reported one month.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, exactly. And before I tell you about why I have so much conviction in that, if you go back to that visualization, one of the problems that I had, and when we were developing this, another guy in my team, he's like, what do private education in health services have in common? Like, who came up with that? Why would they merge them together? Well, I can tell you I have a junior in college, maybe a senior, or sorry, a junior in high school, about to be a senior. And I can tell you probably, I think I finally have figured out, not like this was the intention of people that developed this years and years ago and put these two things together, but I finally figured out the commonality between private education health services. These are both based on fake artificially inflated prices with random arbitrary rebates. And so, I mean, that's my experience now kind of looking at colleges. You have to do these net price calculators and everything. And that for sure was the experience that I had when I was like studying the prescription drug supply chain and, you know, way too much.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“8,000 jobs. It is well, number one, kind of secular decline that manufacturing is fewer people now work in manufacturing than they did in the 1930s, but it's a cyclical and I guess let's also look at construction. So this is very cyclical. You're seeing some peaks and valleys. Yes, the trend line goes up over time, but it goes went down in 2008. It went down in 2000 recession, the mid-1990s, 1980s. I'm just ballpark. This matches up when there's recession, construction employment declines, and the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Whereas now we're looking at private education and health services. And this just looks like the chart of Berkshire Hathaway stock over time. It is in secular grower, and the only time it ever declined was in 2020.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just to say for audience who's listening, so if we hover over boxes of, so first of all, the size of every box is how large the contributor was to jobs for the month of May, the one month over one month. And so we're looking at manufacturing, which Only added is this 8,000 jobs or eight.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just look if there's any correlation there at all. I mean, like, that's what it looks like, right? Accelerating into this rate increase. And so it really makes you wonder what's going on there. Because if you look at any other of the segments, you know, we're looking at absolute numbers here, right? But you have up on the screen. But you'll see those, and you'll see the bumps, the, you know, the ups and downs and ups and downs. And honestly, one of the reasons I'm so excited about this visualization is because it's an entirely, it's an entire history lesson embedded within visualization that I hope also will help people that are looking for just the deconstruction of the latest number. But I mean, look at the ups and downs and ups and downs and the cycles and so on and so forth. I can't tell you that's all driven by rates, but it certainly is driven by macro events, right? And then you got healthcare, right?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“know about it. But read that article. When you really drill into the data and look at the longer term kind of trends, what starts to pop out and hopefully what our visualization will really smack people in the face with is what is going on in healthcare. So, you have healthcare, and this is one of the reasons why when you go to that visualization and you hover over any one of the boxes, you'll see a long-term trend chart. And just pull up. I mean, I challenge you, pull up any of the healthcare industries and then take that and slap the Fed's rates on it going back to 1990.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the problem is not necessarily that we're doing these adjustments or they're doing economists that are cooking up all these different sort of adjustments. The problem is that we, and this is just the frantic markets, right? We latch on to that latest data point and we don't necessarily, and it moves and FX goes up or down or whatever happens. And I'm not sure if that's the intention. If you actually got to be, I'd love for you to get someone from the BLS on here and be like, hey, look, you know, do these adjustments really help us with very long-term trends or are you trying to like nail this number on month to month basis? Because like everyone in the market is like looking at this as a month to month driver. And so the number comes in at 270, whereas if you look at what Bloomberg said, they're like, the real number is more like 100. I have no idea. Yeah, I'm just the data nerd. So I can take this data and then deconstruct it from there. So let's put this birth death thing aside because I've already told you more than I.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I'm like, all right, you know, what I want to give them the benefit of the doubt though with this, right? These adjustments, I think, is by my views, right, my bank creeks are necessarily, I think that they really do help with the long-term kind of smoothing and long-term analysis of these types of data sets, same with CPI, right?”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know what this reminds me of? It reminds me of all the CPI and the PC stuff where, like, the closer you actually get to these, you start studying the methodology of all of them and you're like, okay, this was a survey. This started off as a pure survey of something that is related to whatever this number is. And then we adjusted this, adjusted that, put this estimate on top, another estimate on top, threw it into a blender, blended it all up, and then poured it out for us to drink. And today that drink tastes terrible. But I really can't necessarily tell you what it is like this birth death adjustment. I mean, Bloomer called it, right? I mean, they're like payroll is going to be above $200,000 in unemployment is going to go up. And it's all because of this. And so I immediately went to the BLS website and started reading about it. And I can tell you, I'm not smart enough to understand it.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it ties to the 272. And then the idea is that, like, you know, I can come in here and tell you what I think about it. But I think it's more powerful for listeners to actually go through this and see, okay, there's the 272. Well, if I drill down to level one, one level deeper in the hierarchy, here's what service providing is. And then level two, three, four, five, six, all the way down to level seven. And you can get into some seriously deep levels of the dreams, which like you may never warning emerge out of like me. You know, there was a really good article by Bloomberg kind of going into it. Like, I was like on pins and needles going into this, right? Because I'm like, oh my God, I have this tool. I can actually analyze it in real time. It takes me like 10 minutes to update this. And then I'm looking at kind of the historical volatility of all the categories. And then I then I read this Bloomberg article about this birth death adjustment, which I'm not sure if you know about, but I'm like, oh man, this is just another.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, so let me back up a little bit. And have you seen the movie Inception? Literally, everybody has seen this movie. It's wonderful. So, you know, when you're like a one dream down and then two and then three and then four. And once you get like four, five, six dreams down, like you almost never make it out. You get trapped. That's been my life for like the past two to three weeks. So I've had this podcast kind of on my calendar and really, really wanted to get this labor done, this labor project done before we talked because I was just fascinated by this database. And I have been pulling my hair, trying to get the visualization tool up on our website and I'm proud to say that it is literally now up as of one hour ago. So anyone can go to our website. There's no paywall. It's free for anyone to use. And I've defaulted it to May data. And then to, we'll get into this, but display level two so you'll be able to see kind of like private education and healthcare and stuff like that. But you'll see the number.”
2024-06-17 · Forward Guidance · Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT