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Fred Fox

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72
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2017-10-05
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2017-10-05
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  1. I love the U.S. at this point because here's one of the most fascinating things. Amazon and online sales. Are actually more impacted by weather than store based sale.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. So we sell obviously to all the large retailers, manufacturers globally. That gets our main client base. We do a little bit in agriculture, and we also sell some of the benchmark research to financial firms who are using it for their own research.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. As a result of it, and they're still recovering from it, those companies that can put out not only that weather drove them but explain drove us down by 5% due to weather in the northeast that hit us here and yet our sales are up here that can that can really be transparent about it are going to be rewarded by investors Weather can hide as well good fine natural results so in this company's example, when you stripped out the impact of weather their sales were actually way up over last year but they were against the headwind of climate and weather so it was really covering up how good that they were doing.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. So it used to be up until a few years ago that a chief executive could get away with just blaming weather and not be punished for it. And today... Blaming weather is just not enough. Our message is that you can now take all of your historical data, sales data, measure it against weather, and come up with a precise model that every day, week, month, quarter, any given time, you can know exactly how weather's driving your business. We had one client, I won't name a DIY group that put out to the street that weather really hurt him in the spring, but they didn't explain exactly how it hurt them. And so everyone assumed it was an excuse, and their stock dropped mightily.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. So we always say that weather is a reason for retail performance. Our main message to the industry is that though that you can't manage to what you've never measured. And in a world of big data analytics where you can really analyze any sized data set for very little money, there's no excuse why companies today can't know and tell the street and investors precisely how weather's driving them.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. So, as far as the way the price game is played, the earlier in the season it sells, the higher the price you're going to get, the later in the season it sells, the lower the price. So it makes a big impact on profits and margins.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. Most people buy on impulse when they start feeling a certain way. So it's an internal clock that goes off as soon as we feel warm or feel cold, wet or dry, sort of puts off that clock. Oh, we have to go and buy this or buy that. When unfavorable weather happens early in the season, it puts off purchases. The more you put off purchases, the more people as you go through the season are likely to put it off for an entire season. So there's a point at which they say, you know what, I don't really need that overcoat. I'll get through the winner with what I've got. And I'll wait till next year or I'll wait till they go on sale in the spring.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Yes, because they are used to warmer temperatures, so that slight change is as big an impact as As it is in Minneapolis, when it goes below 25.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. The entire city was closed. It kills him. Where if you go up to, let's say, Vermont, they're driving in several feet of snow, it doesn't even bother them. So people, let's say in Minneapolis will buy thermal underwear only when it goes down below, let's say, 25 degrees when it starts to sell. But in Florida, they'll start buying it when it's about 65

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. Oblivious to it. Exactly. So, weather affects people differently based on where they live. So, for instance, a few flakes of snow will shut down atlanta, Georgia.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. It's tough to get a little range shouldn't keep you away. Right. If it's a McDonald's or a subway, we probably won't go if it's raining. Little things like restaurants that have a drive through are less weather impacted than those that don't have a drive-thru.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Well, whether in PACS traffic, so the choice to go to a restaurant. It's based on how nice it is outside as well as anything. So rain and lots of rain really dampens no pun intend, but it dampens restaurant traffic. And so the more lower price the restaurant, more in the QSR, the more the impact, meaning that the higher priced Again, need versus once. If we're going to a high priced restaurant, we may go out during rain.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Because of all the rain and cold, it delayed what people did. Now, they made a bunch of that back up in April, but... Not all of it.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. Over broader areas. So this past March and May, when it was cold and wet, it was cold and wet over the eastern half of the US. That's a pretty big area for it to drive versus a big storm like a sandy.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. It certainly could be true if you assume that all of us took off a few hours of work to watch it. I guess it could be. The impact of weather, though, tends not to be the big storms that we know. So something like a sandy. Yeah, I mean, definitely had an impact, but it was very localized and it was very short-term in those localized areas. The large impacts come from temperature and precipitation, which are much more spread out.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. So, what we mean by that is really putting weather into a context that businesses can use and action to make different types of decisions. And that's what really weather analytics and the world of analytics allows us to do today on a mass scale in affordable basis is to take all this rich data that comes out of the retail and retail. So that we no longer have to guess at what our weather impact is. Today we can know exactly when, where and how much weather is driving consumers to buy or not buy.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. Right. And so April came. April was warm and nice, and so consumer spending shot up. And then May came, and it was cold and wet again. And so, you know, what took place in June, even though June was a nice month to sell, everything was selling at off price because by that point everyone needs to get rid of merchandise. They're too late in the season. While retailers may have sold out of their inventory, they sold a much lower price level than they would have had to sold in March. And so weather has an enormous effect on all of these things.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. That's what we're talking about. Absolutely. And so we know there are seasons, you know, there is fall, spring, winter, summer, but the timing of when those seasons start, where they start, affects enormously when and where and how much people buy. So for instance, this February in the northeast was fairly mild. We had an early start to the spring season and then March came. And March was downright cold, wet, nasty. And so spending on normal spring, summer stuff stopped for almost

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Exactly. So everything that we wear as clothing, most of it has a weather impact unless it's high fashion. Everything we put on our body, whether it be sun tan lotion, anything to do with the eyes, ears, nose, Face, skin, all is weather affected. Anything we do outdoors, lawn, garden, outdoor hiking activities, all of those things are highly affected by weather. And so when you look at the impact that weather has on when we buy, how much we buy, what price we buy it at, weather is involved in all of those purchasing decisions on an unconscious level.

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. No, actually, it just affects consumer purchasing. Decisions in a meaningful way, whether has that effect still today. And so what I mean is that Weather drives need not once. So when weather drives?

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Even before. So if you look at two days economy, 60% of the world's GNP, gross natural product, is from consumer spending. And 60% of consumer spending is highly affected by weather. So when you take a step back,

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. I left out. Welcome to Bloomberg. I apologize. I'm like racing right into this because I'm jazzed about this subject. Agreed. Well, look, you know, you start with several key facts. One, whether is the Envelope that we all live in and have lived in since mankind first walked upright on the planet

    2017-10-05 · Masters in Business · Fred Fox: Don’t Just Blame it on the Weather · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source