YouSaid · the spoken record

Gary Shilling

lines on the record: 141
first: 2015-10-02
most recent: 2015-10-02
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“It's probably a lot more respect for The unknowns out there And the vicissitudes of nature and the realization that the best laid plans of Mice and Mangang off a glay, that you can have a great forecast and all the fundamentals fall into place and markets just simply do not confirm it. And the way I put it is markets can remain irrational a lot longer than we can remain solvent.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not like every pie is getting bigger. It's just how it's divided. Now, I don't think if I were advising somebody, I'd say, I don't think you ought to be in that zero-sum game business because I somehow, well, I don't think it's whether it just makes a lot of money for you and you move to the Hamptons and so on. But it's not fulfilling and it's not productive.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Other than to become a great economist, of course. I would probably advise him to try to find an area where you are doing something as productive and you're not just a glorified shuffler of paper, trading is important. It lubricates the system, but trading just for the sake of making money. I mean, you look at corporate finance. If you go back, you know, take Goldman Sachs, that used to be an investment banking house. And their job was to work with clients and to raise money for them to do investments in productive things. And it was a win-win situation. The clank got the issue placed. Investors were satisfied with it most of the time. And the investment banker got a fee. What Wall Street is involved in is the trading houses. And that isn't a win-win situation. It's a zero sum game. Right.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Less Yeah, I mean, you know, the technology is there and yet you do have, you still have separate regulations, separate exchanges. There's a lot of, particularly in Europe where they're trying to combine this, but on a global basis. But when money can move around at the touch of a keystroke, the idea that you're moving in a different regulatory jurisdictions because guys are always going to try to game the system. They're going to look for the lowest regulatory climate. And I think that's probably something that we're going to see is a lot more. Global control of financial flows, not control in the sense of Big Brother, but just common regulations so that it's all under the same regulatory framework.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A lot of those guys felt they were an end to themselves. And their only job was to make money. And they didn't really think about are we contributing anything? Are we improving productivity? Are we making it possible for investments to get productive things done in the economy? And I think there's a lot of sight been lost of what the ultimate game objective of finance is.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Finance fundamentally, the justification for finance is the grease of wheels of commerce. If we had a barter system, if it would be pretty rough. Too much friction in every transaction. And that's what finance is. But I think finance, and particularly leading up to the collapse in 2008,”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think that's true. And you really say, is that simply part of the, you know, does that go with the territory? And you just have to expect these periodic glitches and the puke point, you reach that occasionally. That's right. Is this part of the whole deal and you live with it? And I say that's part of the deal. But, you know, the thing about finance is”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're going bad with more confidence than before. I mean, because you think, well, all that data is available and so on. So I'm not sure that we're able to synthesize that data any better. And of course, everybody else has the same data. And are you any better off, really, in terms of your forecaster? I'm a forecaster. Are we making better forecast than we did 20 years ago? Well, I am, but.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We saw that with the ETF crash. And yeah, and the question is, are we really up to speed with this? And then you have a much better question. And this goes back to a lot of what we talked about about automation and so on. Has that made us any better decision makers? I'll tell you one book that I always read. It's a whole bunch of them. It's Shakespeare. I'm a great fan of Shakespeare. And you go back and you say, you know, first of all, that guy said things in an elegant way that none of them, the best line I've ever written. He's going to be big one is worse than the worst line he ever wrote. But you look at these and you say, has anything really changed? Are we making any better decisions with all this technology and speed? I'm not sure we have. And does this mean that it's given us more confidence that we”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and the question is, are we able to handle this in terms of the effects of this? And we've seen this with 87 stock market nosedive, SM2 is down 22% in one day. We've seen flash crashes in 2010 in bonds. And more recently?”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, you know, and not only that, we're at the point now where these guys want to be, it's so fast that they want to be as short a distance physically. High frequency traders 186,000 miles a second. Okay. But they want to be half a mile closer. Because the military don't travel that fast. But, you know, I mean, that kind of thing has really.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First of all, you have opened things up with allowing competition starting with May Day and a fixed commission rates in 1975. And then also the proliferation of computers and ability to trade and moving away from individual securities. I remember Merrill Lynch, their trading operation that was looked like a race track where they had these belts and went around in a big view and a guy would. Take an order and he's sick it in this track and would go around to the guy on the other side who would process it. I mean, you know, it's it.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No real competitions. We know it today. Regulation, I mean, they even had resale fixed retail prices. You couldn't go into a store and buy, you know, and couldn't buy a tub of a toothpaste where the price wasn't fixed in many cases. But that's essentially done. I think what's happened is.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's probably the proliferation of financial instruments. When I got in to Merrill Lynch, and that was in 1967, you had fixed commission rates. Everything was pretty well regimented.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thesis advisors at Sanford, Ed Shaw and Jack Early. They came up with the idea that money pervaded in finance and everything had a degree of money, even insurance policies. But I can't say that I really studied under one great mentor or another”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess some of the basic books on the economy, but I think it's been more the philosophical aspects and some of the great thinkers who”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not sure I can name. I thought about that earlier. We talked about that. And I'm not sure I could mention I never... For better or worse, Barry, I don't think I ever had the mentor.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From that, I decided Standard Oil is a huge company, obviously well-run company. It's going to be there forever, but it was fairly bureaucratic. I wanted to tell you a little more active, and that's why I left for Wall Street.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was an economist there. They had what was called a General Economics Department. They had economists that covered various segments of the world. I was in charge of the U.S. and Canada in terms of forecasting and analysis of the economy. And that was a time when the major corporations, they had two things they knew they had to have. You couldn't go to lunch with your fellow CEOs and other wizards without having them. But they didn't know what to do with either one. And one was economist and the other was computers.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, the ships fall where they may. Fiscal policy can be pinpointed if you want to improve the roads. You put money into road construction. If you want to help the unemployed increase unemployment benefits, it can be very, very specific. It doesn't say it's going to be efficient. It doesn't say it's going to be. I'd like our election.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a big difference between monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy is a very blunt instrument. The Fed and other central banks can raise and lower interest rates, they can buy and sell securities, that's it. And beyond that, the ships fall where”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, Well, I don't know that it would necessarily reverse it. I mean, but it could mitigate it. Speed it up a little bit. It could speed it up a little bit. Yeah, could speed it up.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I would guess so. And as I mentioned earlier, one of the really interesting questions is, is the electorate going to have the patience to go through this or are we going to get a reaction? Are we going to get some oddballs in Congress administration? Are we going to see a big push for government stimulus? And if we do, I think it'll be fiscal. It won't be monetary because”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Maybe something. Yeah, if you use a straight line, the financial sector in this country's probably got another five or six years to go, the consumer working off excess debt's probably maybe a little bit longer, maybe seven, eight years. But that's just drawing straight lines on. So you're guessing.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But right now, recently, you know, if you go back to the 30s, it was about 10 years. We're eight years into this now. At the rate we're going, it may take longer than another two years to complete. But I'm convinced it will be 12.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, normally, you know, if you look at the Reinhard Rogoff data, it takes 10 years. Now, that data is over centuries. It's developed countries, it's banana republics, it's a lot of apples and oranges. How about recently in the...”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. And, you know, as an entrepreneur, okay, why not? Because we know where it else is. Making the money the old-fashioned way. Skill of luck, clairvoyance, brains, hard work, and so much government subsidy you can't miss. Until they...”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And one of the things that's happening to solve that is the Germans. They have a very strong apprenticeship program history. They brought a lot of their plants into the southeast of this country. And they have these apprenticeship programs combined with two-year community college degrees. And these guys come out, and they're very well paid. And American companies are emulating that same kind of thing. So I think that's one of the most exciting things in education. It just doesn't say everybody. We have a college for any... For any intellectual capability in this country, look at the for profit colleges, absolute disaster. Total. They wouldn't exist without government subsidies, and it is just a waste of money.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The reality is, in my view, smart people go to college, but college doesn't make you smart. And I think we need to recognize that and say, okay, there are a lot of people who can have very credible jobs. Hey, what's the last time you hired a plumber to clean out a toilet and he charged you $100 for 15 minutes work? There are a lot of jobs that are not college educations, but they're certainly very credible. There's 600,000 estimates. Are there 600,000 jobs going begging now for people with computer skills to work in factories?”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And, you know, we have the attitude that everybody ought to go to college. And it is true that people with college educations make more than high school grads. But you can't prove causality with statistics. I guarantee you positively, absolutely every time there's a total eclipse of the sun, if you go outside and beat a drum, it will go away. 100% correlation, no causality”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People, there's more computers. It really is. And I was taking some pictures, and here I am on our beach house here, you know, at home around it. I've got this where it records where it is. I mean, you say, big brother knows where you are. But it's a setting. You can either turn that off or leave it on. My opinion that we are more in the infancy than we are finished on these new biotechnology, I think, is much, much more in its infancy. And what that is going to do for productivity growth in the future. Now, again, you're going to have people who have the right training. But, you know, one of the problems we have in this country, one of the problems we have in this country, and just different topic, but I think related, is the education system.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah. Railroads, again, they started 1800s, not until the latter half of the 19th century. I mean, it takes a long time for these things. And, you know, you look at, you and I have a cell phone. I mean, this has got more computer power than IBM 360, this little gadget in your pocket. I joke them.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, for example, they say that Gordon says that the internet and so on is finished. Computers, it's all realized. I think those things are more in their infancy than there are full. I couldn't agree more.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's not his native field. But what I'm saying, Barry, is that that's the easy sell. It's appealing. And I'm always looking for, you know, where's the hidden flaw? That's how I made my career, is looking for why is it going to go wrong? And in this case...”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's always been wrong. Modern Malthusian. And it sells very well. Neil Ferguson at Harvard, things are being dragged down by regulation and so on. Larry Summers, you know, no productivity demographic.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He's going around saying everything that is really productive that's worth inventing has been invented. Modern modern. By the way, we've heard that.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everybody looks around and says, That's what I see. Right on, brother. You look at people like Bob Gordon, professor at Northwestern.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, I am in the long run, very much so. And one of the reasons is my basic philosophy. You know, I mean, right now, the easy long-term forecast to sell is slow growth forever.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With debt they picked up in the last cycle. That's right. I've done so after that. We are going to see a return to rapid growth. And it will be led by technology and productivity.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think to a certain extent it's really just a matter of having patience and letting this whole agent v leveraging run its course.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The people who take it now, you can say, well, that's not equitable distribution, but that's a judgment call. That's not a market call.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that's probably valid. Yeah, if you look at real wages and that pretty much is at Canada. Because their insurance costs are up and they're median real family income.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, but you know, it's a hell raising aspect. It's like, what was that movie network news where the guy? Because, you know, I'm not going to take it anymore. Mad as hell, I'm not going to take it anymore. Absolutely. It's that same kind of reaction. And that's what he's a Bernie Sanders. I mean, of course, he's way to the left, but it's that same kind of appeal. It's kind of a saying the centerist politicians have not solved the problems. We've got to do something else. And there's a big hearing for that kind of thing. So this is a kind of a cycle within the cycle, if you want to use cycles. We talked about whether they're relevant or not. But you've had globalization going on for about three decades. But now in the aftermath of the global Great Recession 0709, we're having this period of slow growth. I call it the age of deleveraging, no growth in real incomes. And as a result, I think the combination of these things is putting a lot of...”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Politicians in the center and looking at the fringes, UK, the head of the new head of the Labor Party, I mean, you're getting very interesting expressions of this. And of course, we're not talking about French revolutions now where people out there tear down the Bastille, but it is a similar kind of impulse, and we could get some very interesting political ramifications.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Donald Trump in the United States. In the U.S. And, of course, John Vayner. In other words, finally said he'd had enough. There's this reaction to...”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's creating more jobs, and of course, it's adding to income polarization because those are better jobs. Yeah, those are high-skilled jobs. Those are high-paid jobs. But what you've eliminated are these auto factories in this country that employ 5,000 people that's out. Now, one of the interesting things coming out of this, and particularly with what's going on right now, we've had eight years of basically no real income growth in the US and really Europe, Japan, the developed world. In other words, adjusted for inflation, no growth. People get frustrated after a while of that, and what's happening? We're beginning to see that expressed politically. For example, in France, the National Front, headed by this woman Marie Le Pen, she may be the next president of France. It's a very”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, their jobs are being created. Just where are they geographically? In other words, are they in this country or are they in China and now low-end manufacturing moving on from China to lower cost areas, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and so on?”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it may be a generational deal. And I don't think it's the end of the world, but it is almost a quantum shift there because of globalization.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've come to a bit of a gap recently with globalization. That's one of the reasons I think globalization is so important because it's given you this huge gap. In other words, rather than a gradual increase in this transfer and upgrading and so on and getting rid of the secretaries and the in-house accountants and all the stuff you mentioned, that's happened overnight. And it is simply left a lot of people in the U.S. and other Western economies who simply are not making that transition.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, the whole idea of industrialization ever since the Industrial Revolution started in England and New England in late 1700s was that it destroys a lot of jobs. You know the origin of the word saboteur? Okay, shabbot, it comes from shabbot, which were wooden shoes. And earlier in the Industrial Revolution, the workers who wore wooden shoes would grind them in the machines, wreck the machines because it was putting people out of work. They wanted to go back to Han Weavers. In other words, you've always had this specter of the destruction of jobs by automation. But what has happened, of course, it's created more jobs and higher level jobs and higher paid jobs with more productivity. And that's the basis of living standards”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source