YouSaid · the spoken record

Gary Shilling

lines on the record: 141
first: 2015-10-02
most recent: 2015-10-02
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“They're lower than younger people, but they're going up and over 75. Now, why is that? Two reasons. One is people are in better health. They're living longer. They want to stay active. A lot of people simply do not have the assets to retire. So you're getting some very interesting dynamics within that. But the bottom line is there are a lot of people out there. Now, training, having the skills to take jobs, that's another issue. But if you assume if you get people properly trained, there's really no shortage of labor in the foreseeable future.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Force, but are still of working age. Well, no, no, no. That's everybody. Now, we've done a lot of work on that, and about 60% of that are people retiring, the post-war babies retiring. But 40% are middle-aged people who've said, you know, I can't find a job. And of course, a lot of younger people who said I'm going to stay in college. I hope I get a better job. Of course, a lot of them came out with big debts, but no better job prospects. But what's fascinating about this with older people, and you're talking about retiring posts who are babies, the participation rates of people 65 to 74 have gone up”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, let's put it this way if you didn't have these participation rate, which is anybody 16 and over who's either working or actively looking for work, if you hadn't had that decline from the peak in February of 2000, the unemployment rate today would be 13%. Really? So that many people have...”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And wages. Well, what's interesting about that is that people are retiring. As a matter of fact, the reason the unemployment rate has come down is basically the people dropping out of the labor force.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's clearly changed. And so what it means is that we simply cannot compete in basic manufacturing or anything, even services. You know, you talk about doing routine legal services. They do that in India, any place they speak English, call centers and so on. So globalization has been a very, very important factor. And we're dealing with the aftermath of that right now.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh gosh, this was about the mid 80s. And his point, of course, is that free markets govern everything, that there's nothing else. And I was saying, well, wages. Here you've got $20 an hour for the UAW, I think, in this country and $2 an hour in Mexico. And I said, you know, you think these are going to equate. Well, they have come a lot closer. And that's what's happened is that this is globalization. And of course, you had a lot of American labor, which was enjoying the fruits of basically isolation. I mean, we did not have global competition.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's a great equalizer of wages, obviously. It was very interesting. This goes back years ago, Milton Friedman had read one of my books. He was in San Francisco. He invited me in. He was in an apartment there, greeted me at the door. Hadn't shaved in three days had a bathrobe on. We sat there for about three hours talking about inflation and wages.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Non existent and going lower. Yeah, it's to fill that out and say it depends on the rest of the economy. If you have an overemployed economy to start with, and then you put all that government spending on top of it. But you see, that's what happened in the late 60s and 70s. Very different today. Yeah, you had huge government spending on war on poverty and war in Vietnam.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Nobody. Pretty good timing. But inflation really peaked in 1980. But nobody believed it. The sales of the book were an absolute disaster. As a matter of fact, McGraw-Hill gave us the last couple of thousand copies. They didn't want them. But interesting, in 1986, by then it was clear that inflation was fading. There were two ex post reviews. One was in the Boston Globe and the other was the Seattle Post Intelligencer. And they both, you know, and both of these business editors, and I saw this book, and my God, it was happening. And so they wrote reviews. Well, of course, that was as handy as a pocket your underwear because the book was long out of print. But it was a pyrrhic victory. But yeah, I mean, that was very lonely. I don't think there was anybody else, at least notable known forecaster who was saying anything like that at the time.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Other people say Barry was so lonely. I wrote my first book in 1982. The title was, Is Inflation Ending question mark? Are you ready? My answer to the first question Yes, yes, inflation is ending. We're going into a period of lower and lower inflation because my view is that government excess spending is the root of inflation. The Fed may be the handmaiden in implementing it, but it's the government spending, and we saw a revolt against government, starting with Proposition 13 in California in 1978 and then Reagan's election in 1980. And I said from that that inflation was on the way out. And as a result, and so the answer to the second half of the question, are you ready? No, because everybody was betting on inflation. They had all their tangibles in their portfolios, coins, antiques, artwork, gold, et cetera. And I said, no, no, you don't have enough stocks or bonds because they will benefit from this. Now, that was a very lonely call. That book, McGraw-Hill finally got it out in 1982.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think the greatest call I made was this one I made in 1981 when I said Bonbull market. Yeah, we're entering the Bond Rally of a lifetime. Was that alone?”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I'm not saying a greater, but that's what I'm hearing. I'm hearing anyone can be an economist, but to be a beekeeper. You and I know economics is plenty, but it's a divergence. It's sort of a, you know, I'm the type of guy I always work. I just change the venue. And that's what it amounts to where you're shifting gears to something else, but you're still going through that mental process of trying to figure out what's going on there. It's like the economy. You're trying to put all that we talked about this earlier. You're trying to put all these pieces together and see where you come out. And you never can be certain. And beekeeping, hey, the vicissitudes of nature are tremendous. You do everything you possibly can. It's just like a forecast. You cover all the bases and you're left to... Certain amount of luck”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Amongst the hives. That's got to be an entire interesting thing is that this with all these diseases and pests that beset honeybees in the last couple of decades, it is there's a whole logic deductive logic sequence I go through when I open a hive. I open a hive, I'm looking, I'm listening, I'm smelling. Is there a queen there? Is she laying? If not, what do I do? I come home from a day in the bee yards out with the bees. I'm rung out not only physically but mentally. You wouldn't think that, but it is. And beekeepers tend to be above average intellect. You've got to have a natural curiosity because, and another interesting economist.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Part and parcel of it. Well, there are common treasures there, Barry. Such as well, the one that is not common, but I like, it's good physical exercise, particularly on a nice day, I like to be outside, and you don't get a lot of that when you're sitting behind your desk or on the lecture circuit or whatever.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, see, you're trying to kill one insect without killing another insect. Right. And they're using some genetic modifications to basically, in effect, try to disrupt the breeding cycle of the mites. That's an experimental stage, but that's probably the greatest thing. But this is a serious problem. And the thing is, these mice mutate. I mean, the treatments that work just beautifully 10 years ago aren't worth anything because they mutated and the ones now.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, yeah. You don't treat until you take off the honey that we're going to eat, of course. But they're doing some interesting things. Monsano has some interesting work where they're”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That behavior. But now right now you've got to treat with chemicals or absolutely positively that hive will be dead in two years.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now this is their five races of honeybees. The only one that's commercially valuable is the Latin, the scientific name is Apus Malophra. Apus B mellophora honey. Now, that one bees are often from the Old World. This one originated in Southern Europe and the Middle East. There's another race in the Southeast Asia called Apos Serena. And this voromite is indigenous on Aposarena. And this voromite hangs on the bee, sucks out their equivalent of blood. Apus seranum recognizes as the bad guy, and they groom him off each other. They pull him off each other. It jumped over to Apos Moophora.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's what's being done, and that's helpful, but it's not on a big enough scale. Then the third problem, which is probably most interesting, is a parasitic mic called varroa, V-A-R-R-R-R-O-A.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's all cash crops. Nothing decorative like most of them don't tend to have any nectar or pollen that's interested in the bees. But what they're doing now a lot of cases is They're encouraging farmers to use marginal land. There's an outfit, for example, called Pheasants Unlimited. They're in the upper Midwest, and they basically raise pheasants and quail for hunters. And what they do is they provide this seed to farmers. And the nectar and pollen are as good for the bees, and then the seeds, the chicks, the pheasants and the quail chicks eat it, which makes them... Better to be harvested by the hunter.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that's one. The second one is nutrition. Farmers. Yeah, farmers plant fence row to fence row, and there's not a lot of wildflowers to give bees the nectar and pollen that they need. So what they're doing is they're encouraging French roads.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But they're not at all sure. And interestingly enough, their European counterparts were absolutely possibly convinced it was pesticides and two months ago these Europeans said we're not so sure.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, as a matter of fact, they just had a huge study announced last year, all the big name USDA entomologists and the guys from the big schools where they, you know, like Cornell and University of Maryland and Penn State and UC Davis and so on, they came up with three areas and everybody's waiting with braided breath. Well, what's the problem with bees? How do we get out of this? Well, the first one has to be pesticide was what everyone was thinking. Oh, no, that's interesting. It isn't. No, but that's the first guess everybody is having. Pesticides, they said maybe.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No more of this, and about a third of everything we eat depends on insect pollination. And 99 and 44, 100% of that is from honeybees. In any event, they say it's the end of the world. Well, what they didn't really, they didn't do their homework because this is a reoccurring problem. It's about every 25 years.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's probably one of the biggest misconceptions. In 2007, sixty minutes, the TV show did this segment on colony collapse disorder Now, what that means is the bees leave the hive and they can't live long on their own outside, that's clear. They don't come back. And they said this is the end of the world. Well, it's actually.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, yeah, we have it stacked all over the office. And my admin, Beth Grant, she keeps saying, come on now, we don't need this much honey. I think she really hopes we don't have a great year because she's trying to figure out where we're going to have it. We just stacked all over the place.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Probably worth a quarter of an hour and probably with a minus sign in front of it. But it varies tremendously. Last year was our best year ever, 5,400 pounds. And we still have 300.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and we give it all away. If I ever sold any, I'd have to keep the books and I don't want to make myself cry because my time would be.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, they're further out Morristown, New Jersey area, and then I've got some we have a beach house on Fire Island, some out there. But this thing varies, it just keeps growing, and it's very labor intensive. I can imagine. I got a guy on my staff who spends a lot of time working with me on this”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I've got 15 of them in our residence in Shorthills, New Jersey, and I've got about 100. And your residence. Underground, underground, in a corner of the property. Right. And, but I got about 100 hives total, and most of them.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, it started off in 1990. And anyway, this son, Steve, he took off for a job in the eurodollar pits in the Chicago merck. And I had been, I've just been the flunky. He was a beekeeper. And it was like, if you ever driven with somebody repeatedly to the same destination, they do the driving, you don't pay any attention. Right. That was me. He takes off. I'm instantly promoted a head beekeeper. And I guess by then we were up to about 20 hives.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But you have these boxes of various depths. There's usually two boxes on the bottom that the bees live in year-round, and they have their honey to get through the winter. They have their brewed in there and they have pollen, which is a nectar they feed to the larvae. And those boxes nine and five eighths deep, if they're full of honey, they weigh 85 pounds. So, the ones you stack up on top are called supers, and that's the honey we're going to take off, and they're not as deep, so you can lift them. Because try lifting 85 pounds at shoulder height. It's good for the stomach muscles.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They built out the wax comb, fill them with honey, put a cap on there. You can take them out, scratch off the caps, put in a centrifuge, spin them out, and put them back. Okay, now coming back to the dimensions, he's the father of modern beekeeping. And those dimensions that I mentioned, 16 to 5HY, 1978 long, those were the dimensions of some scrap lumber he had. It wasn't a conversion from metric, but he was so influential that that became, now it's a convenient size, but the guy never made a dime out of this because it was so easy to copy.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But a congregational preacher in Philadelphia named Lorenzo Langthroft. Lorenzo Langthroft made a very interesting observation. He noticed that the V would only build the worker bees that do all this, the drones don't do anything. She would only build her comb within about three eighths of an inch of any other solid object, including another comb. So he developed from that what's called a movable frame hive. Our listeners may have seen those stacks that come out. In other words, he put these in there and the bees.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that was very inefficient because they had to have about twice as many hives as they were going to harvest. And also, after the advent of kerosene, that's Colonel Drake drilling as well, for lights, there was not the need for beeswax for candles. And it takes about 10 times as much nectar to make a pound of wax as a pound of honey So, this is very inefficient. In 1851, 1851, now honeybees are all from the Old World. They came here with the European settlers, the Indians called them the white man's fly.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the way they harvested the honey was they basically killed the hive. They would use sulfur smoke, kill the hive, and then crush the combs to get the honey out.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Round kind of thing. And the bees would be in there. And when they left their own devices, the bees make, it has a hexagonal cells, but they look like stalagtites hanging down.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I know it was Okay. Now, throughout this time, though, they had bees, they were in various cavities and so on. There's what's called a skeps, which is a series of concentric rings. If you've ever seen a Utah road sign, the beehive state, that's a skeps. You know, it's a traditional kind of.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you stack them up. You stack up the boxes, but the box, the dimensions are 16 and 5 inch wide, 19 and 7 eighth inches long, and they're varying depths. And I can explain to you why the dimensions are. Okay, this is very interesting. Bees have been kept since time in millennium. And by the way, honey never spoils it. Never spoils. They've taken it out of ancient Egyptian tombs, which is just as good as the day the bees made it.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Provoked. Just complete coincidence. Totally independent. Totally independent. No, there was no leading the witness on that one. Okay. So he's doing this. And so”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Lots of blossoms are not that much. Not a lot of fruit. Okay. That makes sense. All right. Very simple road test. Anyway, I had this romantic idea of putting in some beehives, and my wife kept saying, come on, this is no farm. This is suburbia. Well, then our third son, who was an animal lover since birth, did his senior college thesis on bees, and that's all it took to push me over the edge. So one afternoon when my wife, wait, wait, wait,”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's an interesting story. I've got, we live in suburban New Jersey and I have a bunch of drawer fruit trees around our premises. And I didn't think they were getting pollinated properly. And I had this.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. They are depending on that. Of course, they have infrastructure spending as well. But the point is that China, it's the perception of China with a collapse in stock prices and a devaluation people are suddenly saying, oh my God, China isn't really independently growing. They haven't been for years, but perceptions have reality. And will that have enough follow-on consequences with effects on commodity prices and currencies and other developing countries? That's what's there. And if there's a recession out there in the next 12 months or so, I think that's probably where it would be generated.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Minute Well, the reality of China is that nothing has really changed there except perceptions. China basically is not a leader. It's not a self-led country. China imports raw materials and equipment and use it to manufacture goods that they send to North America and Europe.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No place to drop it off. Yeah, that's right. I don't see the making of a recession yet recessions at least historically for two reasons. One is the Fed raises interest rates to choke off what they see as an overheating economy. Now they may have painted themselves into a corner here. They've been yelling and screaming about raising rates. They've crying wolf an awful lot. Their credibility is at stake. They may raise rates simply to preserve credibility. But the kind of interest rate like they did in 94 where they went up 300 basis points on Fed funds in six months or so. I don't see that. So the other possibility of recession is some kind of a shock. That's what we had with a collapseion.com stocks in the late 90s. That was a housing in the mid 2000s. Maybe China.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Still, the world is a wash and oil. Oh, sure. I mean, you know, you're producing about 2 million barrels a day more than demand right now. There's ships floating around.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. That's right. In other words, they may be losing money on a full cost basis, but in terms of the marginal cost, in other words, they still have positive cash flow on a marginal basis. So that's the incentive to keep producing. And now, you know, price goes down there, doesn't stay there forever, but you've got to get to the point that you have major production that disappears from the system.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And in the Permian bases in Texas and in the Persian Gulf, that's in the $10 to $20 a barrel range. So that's how I get to that number.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Basically, took off the quotas. It's now 31.5 million barrels a day. She says, okay, now how low do prices go before somebody chickens out? Some major producer says, I've had it, I've got to cut back. It isn't the cost of meeting budgets. That's irrelevant here. Okay, maybe Venezuela has $150 a barrel. That's irrelevant. It isn't even the full cycle cost. In other words, the cost of drilling the hole, laying the pipes, the overheads on. No, no, no, no. When you're a price war, it's the marginal cost. It's the cost once the pipes are laid, the oil is coming out of the ground. In other words, where is your free cash flow disappear?”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, well, here's the rationale. OPEC is our cartel. Cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium. That's the whole purpose. That encourages cheating. Somebody wants it more than their share, either in the cartel, OPEC, or outside Russia, American frackers, whoever. So the leader of the cartel's responsibility is to cut its own production to accommodate the cheaters, to avoid a price collapse. Well, OPEC's been doing that for years, but they're getting tired of it. In the last 10 years, OPEC production has been flat and all the growth has come in non-OPEC sources, a lot of it recently from American frackers. So the Saudis and their colleagues in the Persian Gulf back November 27th, when we were sitting down to our Thanksgiving turkeys, they decided they weren't going to cut. They basically said we're going to play, we're going to play in the Labor game of chicken. We got about 500 billion dollars in foreign currency reserves, and we're going to see we're going to see who can take lower prices the longest. OPEC production was 30 million barrels a day. They took off.”
2015-10-02 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Gary Shilling: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source