YouSaid · the spoken record

George Noble

lines on the record: 89
first: 2022-05-09
most recent: 2022-05-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And then I'm going to finish. What I've chosen to do, we've done this for no personal gain. Instead, we've tried to, we want to, we ask people if they've gotten value from our rooms, our spaces. Please pay forward and give to our charity of choice, which turns out to be World Central Kitchen. raised in the course of three or four weeks we've raised $120,000 our target's $200,000 and we're really building up a lot of momentum I suspect we're going to be there so we're doing something unprecedented we are harnessing the power of Twitter Raise money for charity, and I'm extremely excited about this, and I believe everyone needs to give back and pay for it, and that's what I'm trying to do.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People like Michael Howell, Michael Belkin with whom I got into a room within five minutes, Dennis Gartman, Stan Weinstein, Tom Thornton, Tony Greer. I mean, just go down the list. And so it's like Murderer's row of content. So we have the best speakers, the best content, I believe the best moderation, because you probably can imagine I don't suffer fools gladly. I employ the Socratic method, so it cuts out all the nonsense. And we have the smartest audience because the smart guys come to my room because they know that's where they can hear brilliant speakers moderated properly. There's nothing worse than going in a room and it's not moderated properly and then it just goes off the rails.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I know I get loud and I can be hyperbolic. I know, but people seem to have the idea that I'm a hannah some hardworking. Yeah, I make plenty of mistakes. If you're not making mistakes, you're either a liar or you're not taking enough risk. And I bring a 40 decades of experience and a perspective looking at the market through the lens of a guy who ran billions of dollars, trying to teach people how to think about markets. I don't tell people what to buy or sell. I don't give picks. It's the old line. You give people a fish. You give them a meal, you give them a teach about a fish, you give them a livelihood. And I think that's why people are drawn to my rooms. We're routinely getting $10,000 and $15,000 people on episode to listen. We have, I told you before, Jackie chuckled. We have, I believe we are the Saudi Arabia of content. We have, because I've been four decades in the business, I know a lot of people, we had the brilliant Michael Howell on your podcast a couple weeks ago. He's a friend of mine, a friend of the rooms.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Before we have, because to me, the Bitcoin debate, I mean, the price is completely manipulated. It's not a real price. It's game over. We've engaged in this most reckless monetary policy in the history of mankind, and it's over. They could have kept getting away with this except for one thing, inflation. It's over. All right, last thing, charity. I discovered Clubhouse last year, then Twitter spaces. I went into a number of spaces. I didn't totally like what I was hearing. I decided to start my own. And I think I had 2,000 Twitter followers at the time. That was four months ago. I now have 22,000 Twitter followers. If I reflect on it, I think it's because people are looking for answers. People are looking for truth.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I believe that crypto is a real thing. I believe in technology, that's not the point. People are conflating. It's technology, bro, or number go up, or zoom out, all that nonsense with what is it worth, right? And my opinion is, you know, Bitcoin, you've yet to find a use for it. Technology might be interesting. But all the arguments people give for Bitcoin, the true way that Bitcoin is $1,000, $10,000, $100,000, or a million doesn't change. The story is always the same. It's a narrative. It doesn't generate cash flow. It's not a store of value. As we've seen, it's a risk asset. It correlates with Nasdaq. And I'm totally willing to turn bullish on Bitcoin once the feds, guy Gensler, please call your office. Once the Feds clean up Dodge and put the crack down on these bullshit stablecoins. But until that gets resolved, it's a no-fly zone for me. And I want to see what the Bitcoin price settles.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When Bitcoin was sold at 11,000, the Mark Caps about 200 billion. The freely available float, this goes to market structure, which the brilliant Michael Green talks about a lot, the free float of Bitcoin was only about $40 billion. Jack, imagine this. You and I started counterfeiting gig. We make up $70 billion worth of fake statement of counterfeit stablecoins. And I say, Jack, here's $70 billion. Go buy some Bitcoin in it. You say, well, George, there's only $40 billion I can buy. It's only a market. So Jack, for $50 in double jeopardy, how high are you going to be able to push the Bitcoin price up?”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You say, okay, well, Georgia, what are you worried about? Tether's only even now, it's only $75 billion, and there's 19 million Bitcoin outstanding roundabout at a price of $40,000 roundabout. So Tether's $70 billion to Bitcoin market cap is $750 billion. What are you worried about? Here's what they miss. If you look at the free float of The non hodled supply. It runs around 20%. So let's go away in the Wayback Machine. Let's go back to the fall of 2020.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tether is the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world. It's bigger than Madoff. There's been tens of billions of dollars worth of stable coins that's been counterfeited. And in my opinion, the reason that's important, the Tether market cap went from like $2 billion to $75 billion. If you go on the way back machine to the fall of 2020, when Bitcoin was at $11,000, With 18 million coins outstanding that equated to a market capitalization of that $200 billion. Man of Tether I stand at the time was about $2 billion. Tether has been massive counterfeiting tens of billions of dollars. You can read all about it. It's a complete scam.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Crypto space. So those margins are going to collapse. Even if volumes, for whatever volumes do, the margins are going to add even more because of more competition. So that 7PE is backward looking. I think Coinbase right now is probably not about 40 times earnings the way I do my numbers. So, again, Peter Lynch, call your office, know what you own, know what you own. Last thing I want to say on crypto, the big elephant in the room that has not been addressed and the authorities are just dragging their heels, whether they don't want to be seen to be participating in a crash, or there's been regulatory capture. This whole tether scam.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I understand. But here's the problem stocks are forward looking so Coinbase, those earnings are totally correct, but here's the problem. Those trailing earnings came about in a time of extremely buoyant market conditions for crypto. It was interesting when I started to get into Twitter spaces and clubhouse last year for the first time on the most unlikely FinTwit personality. I understand that. But I made the mistake of going to some Bitcoin maxi rooms and boy did I It's like I walked into a hornet's nest. And more generally, as crypto becomes institutionalized, and I have to take a pod shot at Bitcoin before this interview's over, and I think we're getting towards the end, you're going to see Coinbase's margins collapse. If you look at Coinbase's profit margins, they're outrageous. And you look at the history of other markets, you know, trading stocks like back in the day, it was like a dollar a share, all this type of nonsense, okay? Now every man and his dog is getting into the”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Directed offering at 250. It traded to 400 or 450 the first couple days. It's now 120. It's still wildly overvalued. That's going to be a $50 stock.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the whole rest of the market, not so much, so even more conviction, even more than is the market going to go down, which I think it will. One more point I want to make on that, is I think this rotation away from long-duration Kathy Woods loss making Tesla type of garbage to energy and commodity stocks more generally is the right way to be. I will say in the very short run, though, I'm a little bit concerned because energy stocks have done so well that they're prone to have a correction. So I'm not saying people should go running out tomorrow and buy energy stocks, but I put out on Twitter last year long XOP, short ARKK. That trade has returned 300%. I said short Peloponnet 120. It's now 20%. I said short Coinbase at, I don't know, 300. It's now 120. I said short Robinhood at 35. It's now 10. So to your point about stocks going down, 70% go down a little bit more, right? Coinbase, I want to remind you something. They came public.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But we got to drill it out, and we're not. So I think as inventory, as the stories that go toward the second half of the year is going to be one of are we running out of production capacity. Now, back to all change, we get a recession. We get a recession. Demand goes down. But again, we're not here to debate the economy. We're here to talk about the stock market. And my point is, you know, if Jerome Powell discovers his inner Paul Volcker and does what he should be doing, we'll get a recession, in which case game over for stocks. If he doesn't, interest rates, bond rates, in my opinion, are going to keep going up, and that's bad for stocks. Stocks either way are a lose-lose proposition, in my view. But more, even more important than that, what kinds of stocks? If we go back to the 70s, the inflation beneficiaries, the commodity stocks, they did quite well.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oil inventories have gone down by over 700 million barrels. I think it's 750 million by now. And there's an inverse correlation between inventories and price. And even in the first quarter, which should normally be a period of inventory building, we saw draws. So we are headed for an energy crisis. What I just referred to is further exacerbated by the whole ESG debate where companies are being pressured, everyone's got to be green and all this sort of stuff. Everyone's worried about the carbon footprint. So you have companies where if you're the CFO of an energy company, you had a near-death experience the last few years, the last thing in the world you're going to do is put another hole in the ground and drill for more oil. And then on top of it, you're going to have the ESG crowd on top of it if you do it. So we're not drilling for more oil. It's not that the oil doesn't exist. It exists.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And what's happened is it's the supply side you need to focus on. Capital spending in the energy industry has gone down by 70% over the last eight years. Stop exploring for the stuff and drilling for the stuff. It says, Reserves are declining. We're not replenishing the amount of reserves that we, I mean, the oil is down there somewhere, but we have to drill it out. So that the excess capacity right now is commonly perceived to be maybe less than 3 million barrels a day right now and total world demand is about 100 million barrels. So the point of all that is we're getting caught up in the numbers. We've been underinvesting in energy. That's going to catch up and bite us in the rear end. And you're already seeing it. You've seen since the second quarter of 2020.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The facts are, the truth is that in the last fifty years, oil demand has only gone down three times. It went down in the 70s, the early oil crisis in the early 70s. It went down in the great financial crisis. It went down during COVID. The fact of the matter is, not in the opinion, the fact is, oil demand tends to go up a little bit every year, GDP minus something, right? There's been virtually no growth in all the men are very low growth and all demand in the OECD. However, the rapidly growing emerging market countries, China, India, you know the story, their per capita consumption of energy is a fraction of what ours is. And that's set to continue for years and years and years. And so oil demand is not going to us going to keep going up. The problem though is not the demand side. The problem is the supply side. This is where people miss it. And I urge everyone to pay attention to Mike Rothman of Cornerstone. He's the best oil analyst out there. Hey, Mike.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Lynch would not be buying Apple right now. I promise you that. Just do simple P growth. Put in whatever number you want. It fails the test. What would I be buying right now? What do I own? Energy. And energy doesn't have to do with recession and depression. People say, well, you don't have to kind of slows down. There's going to be oil. The man is going to go down, yada.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is Jack. All I'm going to say is, I mean, you're talking narrative. And I'm saying whatever you're talking, they're only growing at 8%. And it's selling on maximum valuation. Like, why would I pay? So everything you just said is true. They both can be true. So they're doing all this good stuff and they're buying back a ton of stock. Fine. So let's tell Jack what he gets. You're paying 26 times their earnings for an 8% grower. Where I come from, that's not a buy.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which is considerably way above prior peaks. And people say, hey, bro, you don't get it. It's a healthcare company. It's a software company. A look at the profit margins. The profit margins have gone nowhere for the last 10 years. It's all narrative. So you have a company with stable profit margins, with top line growth is slow to eight percent. Selling on 26 times earnings. Oh, but George, you don't get it. Healthcare stock, bro. So, Jack, what am I missing? Help me.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He's only four. It's on 26 times earnings. Growth is slowing. It's an 8% grower at this point. Would it really surprise you if the earnings get hit? Because just imagine hypothetically if there was a lockdown in China and people need to go out and buy iPhones and maybe they had a bad quarter as a result. Like not that could ever happen. Just imagine why would you buy that? One of the lines I've been using, I haven't used it yet in this discussion, is that equities represent, in my opinion, return-free risk. I say that again. Return free risk. Very little upside and a lot of downside. Like if you're lucky in Apple, it's 155 wherever it is today. You know, the high was 170 or wherever it was. Maybe it goes up a few percent. But if you look at Apple on a price sales basis, it's on about, I think, six or seven times sales, the numbers in front of me.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Apple now is 6% of the SP and energy is four. Apple still valued at more the entire energy sector? Apple, when they came out their earnings last week, said that they're now facing considerable headwinds from supply chain, which could be as much as four to eight billion dollars in the coming quarter. They basically gave you the profit warning. It's 6% of the SP.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A couple things I want to say there. First of all, I am a gross investor Want to know what growth is in the current environment? Energy stocks. You want to know as a growing top line and growing earnings that are accelerating? Who's a price maker, not a price taker? A gross stock investor. Let that sink in. Amazon, Facebook, they're X-growth. It's over. It's done. It's done. I want to come to Apple. You mentioned Apple. Apple's a poster child. Without getting crazy, look, Apple's a real company. People have done great with it. I didn't own it. Apple is selling right now on about, I think it's like 25, depending on where the stock is today, 25, 26 times earnings. Something which is growing at 8% a year really Apple, even now?”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I would even say Costco is even cheaper. We're getting there. So things like Tesla, where there's a huge amount of growth priced in to things like that. Then we'll say the Costco the Amazons where they're richly valued, a lot of growth priced in. Then I'd say Apple and then at the bottom Facebook, I mean, Facebook, you said 14 times earnings. George. I mean, people use Instagram. It's growing. And there are, you know, copper companies that are trading at higher than 14 times earnings. Why would you want to rather own a copper company than Facebook?”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, no, oh, you mean things like Costco, which is a great company, a real company, but it's on 45 times earnings, things like that.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They are extremely sensitive to interest rates following. They might make sense if you have negative nominal bond yields, but at 3%, they are not going to do well. And if it went from 200 to 20, it could still go to 2. So that's at the very top. And then there are companies that are just extremely richly valued that I would put Tesla in there.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I want to paint a spectrum of different stocks as I see them on their earnings, their valuations. I want to see if you agree with the spectrum. And then I also want to draw a conclusion that I want to propose to you, which is from very richly valued to relatively cheap, I think at the sky high where it's, you know, you can't even see it in my frame, in the camera are companies that don't have any revenue that in their S1s that they released where they're essentially allowed to commit legal fraud, even they admit that they won't have revenue till 2027. And then they, of course, forecast a thousand percent growth. People can perhaps imagine what I'm talking about. That's at the top where”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the CEO is a self aggrandizing, I'm not going to name it, that stock, I think it's going to go down a minimum, a minimum of 50% over the next 12 months. It's like 900 today. I'll take the under on 500.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think Netflix, and again, none of this is investment advice, none of it. I could change my mind tomorrow. But I'm telling you, I believe Amazon is going to be a lot lower a year from today. So I'll just tell you, in my opinion, Netflix is going to be a lot lower a year from today. It's $195. I think it'll be at 95. Amazon's at $2,400. It's going to be a lot lower. And then there's the electric car company that shall not be named that guy. That company has no moat. There's nothing proprietary about what they do. For the first time in its history, they're being met now with significant competition. They're losing market share to their competitors. That's true they're gaining market share in the overall market because EBs are growing, but they're losing market share in electric vehicles. Models are tired and old.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's even worse. It's even worse. Why? So you were talking before they don't make money on a start dealing with all the employee share-employee expense, all the stock option nonsense, okay? Those are real expenses. Those are real expenses. People work at Netflix or other companies for a lower salary than they would otherwise because they're placing a lot of value on the stock options. Netflix is now cut through. It's 2018 price. So that means anyone who joined the company and got stock options, those options aren't where it means. You're not on the money in any of those options. And so what happens in an economy where stock prices are always up and to the right, people work for less money because they've got stock options. Well, okay, because they put a lot of value in the stock options. If all of a sudden the market's not going to and people are like, eh, you know, I can go across the street and make a $50, $100,000 more workout over there. They'll pay me cash. They will. So this fraud, it's like three-card money. Pay no attention.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. Netflix is a company that it really doesn't make money. I mean, there have been quarters when, yeah, they have adjusted EBITDA positive numbers that look good, but essentially it's an unprofitable company. Let's be real.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jack, must you pay attention to those details? Come on, bro. Everyone knows non gap. So there's an example of the stock. So from 700 to 195, wherever it is today, all right? It's 700. You can still believe in the dream. At 195, the dream is ova. It's a nightmare.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if you look at people like to look at PE to growth and say, okay, I'll pay a higher multiple and higher growth. I'll pay a lower multiple and lower growth. I mean, Facebook now is on, I don't know, 13 times earnings, 14 times earnings. You say Facebook, really? Yeah, that's because they've gone X growth. And you want to know something? It may be that... Stock's even a short range. I'll give you one, I'll give you a note. Netflix, okay. Netflix is a screaming short right here, right now. I don't care at the stock's down from 700. It's irrelevant. Their ex growth in a commodity business with increasing competition and no defensible moat.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Doesn't mean just because the PE is low when the stock is lower to better buy. I'll give you an example Amazon. Amazon took a dirt nap last week. Amazon's $2,500 airbaths day as we speak. The peak was what, three and a half, four thousand, something like that. I would actually argue Amazon's a better short now at $2,500 than it was at $4,000. And the reason I say that is if you look at their earnings release last week, it was an unmitigated disaster Supply chain issues, logistic costs. And we spoke earlier about the pull forward with this work from home phenomenon. They stole our growth in the future so that the most recent quarter they were competing anniversary, the big gains, sales were only up 7%. Guided for only the lowest in a million years or ever for Amazon. I forget the numbers, they guided for only 5% going forward.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, that's funny you say that. I would actually argue sometimes. Stock that goes down 70, it's at 100, it goes to 30, it might actually be a better short at 30 than it was at 100. Christ is not the be all and end all. I mean, if you have a company, let's say, we're at 100. Market cap is umpteen billions and the economy's growing. And then things start to slow, then they fall apart. And let's say the stock's on 20 times earnings. And then they have an earnings business. The stock goes down. Margins go down. And now it's at 30 instead of 100. And the PE is maybe 10 instead of 20. Well, it depends on the outlook going forward. I mean, if growth has slowed that much, if it's gone ex growth.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The reason the stocks are going down is because interest rates are going up, and interest rates are going up because we still have a very stimulative, wildly inappropriate monetary policy. So there is no buffer here. Again, in decades past, you know, stocks down, yields fall, that kind of serves as a little bit of a buffer or valuation support. That dynamic does not work now.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The 6040 model is dead longer than the 6040 model. That's the idea that, you know, when stocks go down, bonds go up, so it kind of balances your portfolio. Well, that's true in the last 20-some odd years, but if you go back to like 1998, I mean, right now stocks and bonds are positively correlated, all right? From 98 to 2021, they were negatively correlated. But before that, if you go back in the Wayback machine, they were positively correlated, right? So the 6040 model is dead as a matter of fact.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's crazy how early into the tightening cycle we are and how much pain we've seen. I mean, I know stocks, financial assets are anticipatory assets. They tend to sort of be ahead of the curve. But we're only at 25 basis points. We're recording on Tuesday, May 3rd, by all likelihoods, by tomorrow JPAL will announce a 50 basis point hike to 75 to 100 in that range. But okay, so explain what you meant about bonds and discount rates. Normally if someone's super bearish on stocks, bonds are a hedge, but you don't think that in that environment?”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To recall the stock market took a dirt nap in the fourth quarter of 18. Bottom he only just before Christmas. People are like, oh, the sky is falling. The sky's falling. We're going to have a recession. Well, guess what? Growth accelerated from 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 18 to 3.1% in the first quarter of 19. So just because everyone's in pain, like, oh, my stocks are going down. My stocks are going down. The world must be coming to an end. We must be having a recession. No, it doesn't work that way. We still have a highly, highly stimulative policy. I want to point out to you, the federal government's the Fed's balance sheet, albeit it was a small increase, it still increased in the month of April. They haven't done anything yet. They haven't done anything yet. And look how much the market's down. So for $50 in double jeopardy, just imagine what's going to happen when they start QT in earnest and rates really start going up.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So this is crucially important. So I remain steadfastly negative on bonds for a couple reasons. AI, I don't think the economy is bad as some of the economic bears would have you believe. I believe I also want to point out something else. In 2018, when the Fed started to, they started the QT, they started to raise rates.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Europeans and Asians with too much excess savings. So, what happens? We borrow the money and we can grow much more than we would have otherwise. Now though, we have a different situation. Foreigners are not buying our bonds anymore. Like, why would you give more inflation is and give more interest rates are? Foreigners are not buying our bonds anymore. Banks, interestingly, are not buying our bonds. And the federal government is going from QE to QT. So you look at the way the supply demand situation flips around on bonds. It's a nightmare. And the reason that's important is because all of a sudden they go back to Tina. Tina's dead? Well, if you can get 5, 6% from investment grade or whatever, high yield. All of a sudden, the stars look interesting.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the point is when you think about the economy, it's identity, the private sector, sorry, the public sector surplus deficit is equal to the private sector surplus. So all the money that the Fed spent, that the government spent to boost economic growth, they spent money they didn't have, boosted growth, that in turn generated profits which flowed at the private sector and pushed up asset prices, right? So you had rising profits along with the government buying bonds. They were engaging in QE. Now we have, this is a very important point that Jim Bianco harped on the other day as well. If you look at the outlook for interest rates and bonds, it's not just growth. It's also has to do with you got to look at supply and demand on interest rates. This will determine real interest rates. How much excess savings is in the system? We have the great moderation for many years, excess savings, the Eurasian savings collect.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the economy is slowing. I think the picture is going to be a lot less buoyant a few months from now than it is today. Will be enough to give us a recession. Oh no. And so One needs to keep in mind that in past cycles you had the dead excesses on the balance sheets of individuals and corporations. Time around the track The excess and credit extension, the debt excess, is on the balance sheet of the government. It's the governments that have borrowed all the money. For instance, if you look at the debt servicing ratio of individuals, it's extremely low. In other words, income relative to interest payments. Corporations, relatively speaking, in decent shape.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jack spot on brilliant point, brilliant question. As you know, monetary policy always operates with a long and variable leg. So what you're seeing right now is by dint of decisions that were made over a year ago. So the idea that we can micromanage the economy and Jack say, hey, Jerome, a little more in the interest rate, a little more, it doesn't work that way. So in terms of the economy. But I also want to remind some people of something else. The economy is not the stock market. Those are two different things. And people make that mistake all the time. The economy is not the stock market. And I don't want people to come away from this and say, oh, George is bullish in the economy. No, no, no, no. It's not what I'm saying.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, let me finish. Jay was right in April. That's not the point. The point is, how do we make money? And the point is interest rates, in my opinion. Long term bond yields are only going to go to Africa for one reason and one reason only, and that's what we get a recession. So take your pick. You can either have the recession and good luck with your stock market if that happens, or we don't get the recession, in which case inflation ain't coming down and there ain't nothing transitory about high interest rates and yields are going to go higher. Either way, Equities are toast. FOMO is dead. Is dead. Goldilocks is dead. They're all dead.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Call me inflation is 4%, 5%. What is the tenure doing at 280? Tenure should be four. The very perception that I have is that I think the economy is going to be able to better withstand rising interest rates than people perceive. Yes, it is true the interest sensitive parts of the economy like housing are going to take it on the chin. And yes, it's true if the tragic situation in Ukraine gets worse or China blows up, you know, we'll have a recession, fine. It's the old Ned Davis line. You want to be right? You don't want to make money. I don't want the IQ contest over, well, you know, after a careful review on the play inflation and, you know, hey Jack, we're at 6% on December back to you.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But if it doesn't have to accelerate, I mean, put it this way the Feds don't have things inflation inflation will be 4% by the end of the year I don't see how that's humanly possible Just End of”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You mean they might make a mistake with monetary policy? What do you call last year? Race went from 1%, inflation went from 1% to 7.5%, didn't do anything”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The discount rates, wherever it is, I lost track. And the 10 years at 290, I think it's almost pushing three today. Someone would say to you, wait a second. Inflation is at eight, eight and a half, and you're telling me that's with a bogus CPI number. And you're telling me the bond market at 295? Discount rates that wherever it is you crazy, and so people say, well,”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The public, that bull markets don't die so easily. The public still wants to believe in the dream. But if I'm right, an interest rates continue to rise and or earnings estimates start to fall as growth ebbs away. And we don't even have to get into a debate about a recession or not. If we get an economic recession, if we just get an earnings recession, an earnings recession... Combined with higher interest rates stemming from taxation, that's like cryptonite for the stock market. And you say, well, George, you know, rates have gone from 170 to 290 on the 10-year. Like, come on. Like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not anchor on 170. If you came down from Planet Mars You had no idea where things were before. And someone said to you, well, inflation is 8.5%, may still be going up.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What's the definition for stock is down at 85%? It's one that goes down 70%. It gets cut in half again. All right. So, you know, and then the worst part of it is, this is true for the market more generally. It's segue into something else. People haven't sold. She hasn't got any redemptions And that gets to a bigger point. I want to make let's beat up on Kathy's session, but the market more generally, you had over trillion dollars of inflows into equity funds last year, ETS mutual funds, all the rest. And as Walter Deemer famously says, the retired You had over a trillion flow in last year, and it's been, I don't know, 150, 200 billion flow in this year. It's only been in the last two, three weeks of seeing any redemptions. I think there was like 20 billion, 13 billion, and a billion.”
2022-05-09 · Forward Guidance · It’s “Game Over” For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynch’s Protégé · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT